2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

The 2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election
2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
November 2, 2004
Turnout72.9% ( 5.9%)[1]
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,489,504 1,478,120
Percentage 49.70% 49.32%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

Elections in Wisconsin
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2008
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Mayoral elections

Wisconsin was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 0.38% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or swing state. The state had similar demographics and was a showdown state just like its bordering states: Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa. On election day, Senator Kerry barely carried the state over President George W. Bush. The results were nearly identical to the 2000 election, when Al Gore squeaked by Bush. As of the 2020 Presidential Election, this would be the most recent time when Wisconsin did not back the overall winning candidate of the Electoral College. Additionally, this was only the third time since 1960 (the other years occurring four years earlier in 2000, along with 1988) it would vote for the losing candidate. This is also the last time a Republican won the presidency without winning Wisconsin.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Toss-Up
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Toss-Up
  5. Newsweek: Toss-Up
  6. New York Times: Toss-Up
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up
  8. Research 2000: Toss-Up
  9. Washington Post: Battleground
  10. Washington Times: Battleground
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Pre-election polling had Bush and Kerry winning polls, with neither candidate grasping a strong lead. The last 3 poll average showed Bush leading 49% to 46%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,993,040.[4] Kerry raised $1,130,602.[5]

Advertising and visits

Bush visited the state 12 times. Kerry visited the state 14 times.[6] A total of between $1.3 million to $3.6 million was spent each week.[7]

Analysis

Wisconsin has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in the last four elections before the sixth time in 2004. The urban centers of Milwaukee and Madison tend to vote strongly Democratic. The suburbs of those cities are politically diverse, but tend to vote Republican. Counties in the western part of the state tend to be liberal, a tradition passed down from Scandinavian immigrants. The rural areas in the northern and eastern part of the state are the most solidly Republican areas in Wisconsin.

The CNN exit polls showed a dead heat between the two. However, the deciding factor for Kerry's victory was union members who voted for him with 62%, while non-members (83% of the population) voted for Bush with just 52% of the vote.[8]

Results
2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Forbes Kerry 1,489,504 49.7% 10
Republican George Walker Bush (Incumbent) 1,478,120 49.3% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 16,390 0.6% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 6,464 0.2% 0
Green David Cobb 2,661 0.1% 0
Write Ins 2,117 0.1% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 869 0.0% 0
Independent Walt Brown 471 0.0% 0
Independent Roger Calero 411 0.0% 0
Totals 2,997,007 100.00% 10
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 72.4%

Results breakdown

By county
County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others#
Adams 52.1% 5,447 46.8% 4,890 1.1% 119
Ashland 63.1% 5,805 36.0% 3,313 0.9% 81
Barron 48.9% 11,696 50.3% 12,030 0.9% 211
Bayfield 60.3% 5,845 38.7% 3,754 1.0% 100
Brown 44.6% 54,935 54.5% 67,173 1.0% 1,186
Buffalo 52.7% 3,998 46.1% 3,502 1.2% 91
Burnett 48.3% 4,499 50.9% 4,743 0.8% 79
Calumet 40.7% 10,290 58.2% 14,721 1.0% 265
Chippewa 48.3% 14,751 50.6% 15,450 1.1% 323
Clark 46.1% 6,966 52.7% 7,966 1.3% 193
Columbia 48.4% 14,300 50.6% 14,956 1.0% 299
Crawford 55.0% 4,656 43.5% 3,680 1.5% 123
Dane 66.0% 181,052 33.0% 90,369 1.0% 2,828
Dodge 37.6% 16,690 61.4% 27,201 1.0% 445
Door 47.8% 8,367 50.9% 8,910 1.2% 214
Douglas 65.7% 16,537 33.5% 8,448 0.8% 202
Dunn 52.0% 12,039 46.9% 10,879 1.1% 254
Eau Claire 54.2% 30,068 44.5% 24,653 1.3% 716
Florence 36.5% 993 62.5% 1,703 1.0% 28
Fond du Lac 36.2% 19,216 62.8% 33,291 1.0% 529
Forest 48.7% 2,509 50.6% 2,608 0.7% 36
Grant 50.9% 12,864 48.3% 12,208 0.8% 192
Green 52.5% 9,575 46.6% 8,497 1.0% 176
Green Lake 35.4% 3,605 63.6% 6,472 1.0% 101
Iowa 56.8% 7,122 42.6% 5,348 0.6% 72
Iron 50.4% 1,956 48.6% 1,884 1.0% 39
Jackson 54.0% 5,249 45.1% 4,387 0.9% 90
Jefferson 42.6% 17,925 56.5% 23,776 1.0% 414
Juneau 46.3% 5,734 52.3% 6,473 1.4% 172
Kenosha 52.5% 40,107 46.6% 35,587 1.0% 734
Kewaunee 45.9% 5,175 53.0% 5,970 1.1% 128
La Crosse 53.4% 33,170 45.5% 28,289 1.1% 677
Lafayette 52.5% 4,402 46.8% 3,929 0.7% 57
Langlade 42.9% 4,751 56.3% 6,235 0.8% 88
Lincoln 47.7% 7,484 51.1% 8,024 1.2% 192
Manitowoc 46.8% 20,652 52.1% 23,027 1.1% 481
Marathon 45.4% 30,899 53.5% 36,394 1.1% 766
Marinette 45.8% 10,190 53.3% 11,866 1.0% 214
Marquette 44.7% 3,785 54.3% 4,604 1.0% 88
Menominee 82.6% 1,412 16.8% 288 0.6% 10
Milwaukee 61.7% 297,653 37.4% 180,287 0.9% 4,296
Monroe 45.9% 8,973 53.1% 10,375 1.1% 206
Oconto 43.1% 8,534 55.8% 11,043 1.1% 217
Oneida 47.5% 10,464 51.5% 11,351 1.0% 224
Outagamie 44.6% 40,169 54.3% 48,903 1.1% 978
Ozaukee 33.4% 17,714 65.8% 34,904 0.8% 414
Pepin 53.6% 2,181 45.6% 1,853 0.8% 32
Pierce 51.1% 11,176 47.7% 10,437 1.2% 263
Polk 47.5% 11,173 51.5% 12,095 1.0% 235
Portage 56.1% 21,861 42.5% 16,546 1.4% 554
Price 49.6% 4,349 49.2% 4,312 1.2% 102
Racine 47.5% 48,229 51.6% 52,456 0.9% 884
Richland 47.8% 4,501 51.3% 4,836 0.9% 83
Rock 57.9% 46,598 41.2% 33,151 0.9% 730
Rusk 48.2% 3,820 50.3% 3,985 1.5% 122
St. Croix 44.9% 18,784 54.2% 22,679 0.9% 372
Sauk 51.6% 15,708 47.4% 14,415 1.0% 294
Sawyer 46.7% 4,411 52.4% 4,951 1.0% 91
Shawano 41.2% 8,657 57.9% 12,150 0.9% 192
Sheboygan 44.1% 27,608 55.0% 34,458 0.9% 559
Taylor 40.1% 3,829 58.5% 5,582 1.4% 132
Trempealeau 57.4% 8,075 41.8% 5,878 0.8% 109
Vernon 53.4% 7,924 45.6% 6,774 1.0% 147
Vilas 40.8% 5,713 58.2% 8,155 1.0% 134
Walworth 39.6% 19,177 59.4% 28,754 1.1% 515
Washburn 49.2% 4,705 49.8% 4,762 1.0% 100
Washington 29.3% 21,234 69.9% 50,641 0.8% 592
Waukesha 32.0% 73,626 67.3% 154,926 0.8% 1,811
Waupaca 40.0% 10,792 59.1% 15,941 0.9% 241
Waushara 42.9% 5,257 56.2% 6,888 0.8% 101
Winnebago 46.2% 40,943 52.5% 46,542 1.3% 1,111
Wood 47.3% 18,950 51.4% 20,592 1.3% 529

By congressional district

Bush and Kerry each won four congressional districts.[9]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 54% 46% Paul Ryan
2nd 37% 62% Tammy Baldwin
3rd 48% 51% Ron Kind
4th 30% 70% Jerry Kleczka
Gwen Moore
5th 63% 36% Jim Sensenbrenner
6th 56% 43% Tom Petri
7th 49% 50% Dave Obey
8th 55% 44% Mark Andrew Green

Electors
Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Wisconsin cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Wisconsin is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.

  1. Gail Gabrelian
  2. Margaret McEntire
  3. Jordan Franklin
  4. Martha Toran
  5. Jim Shinners
  6. Jan Banicki
  7. Daniel Hannula
  8. Steve Mellenthin
  9. Glenn Carlson
  10. Linda Honold

References
  1. "Wisconsin Voter Turnout Statistics". Wisconsin Election Commission. Wisconsin Election Commission. Retrieved 25 September 2020.
  2. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW%5B%5D
  3. http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=55
  4. George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President
  5. John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President
  6. CNN.com Specials
  7. CNN.com Specials
  8. CNN.com Election 2004
  9. Swing State Project: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008
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