2004 United States presidential election in Montana
The 2004 United States presidential election in Montana took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
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 County Results
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Montana was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 20.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. The state typically votes for Democrats at the state level, having a Democratic senator: Max Baucus, as well as a very popular governor Brian Schweitzer. Montana has voted for the Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1964 except in 1992, when the state slightly preferred Democrat Bill Clinton to Republican incumbent George H. W. Bush.
Primaries
Campaign
Predictions
| Elections in Montana |
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There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]
- D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
- Associated Press: Solid Bush
- CNN: Bush
- Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
- Newsweek: Solid Bush
- New York Times: Solid Bush
- Rasmussen Reports: Bush
- Research 2000: Solid Bush
- Washington Post: Bush
- Washington Times: Solid Bush
- Zogby International: Bush
- Washington Dispatch: Bush
Polling
Only a few pre-election polls were taken here. Bush won each one of them with a double-digit margin and with at least 54% of the vote. The final 3 polling average showed him leading 55% to 35%.[2]
Analysis
Bush's key to victory was winning the highly populated Yellowstone County with 60% along with the majority of other counties. Kerry only won 5 counties in the state, including swinging Missoula County and his best performance in the Democratic stronghold of Deer Lodge County.
Results
| 2004 United States presidential election in Montana[7] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | George W. Bush | 266,063 | 59.07% | 3 | |
| Democratic | John Kerry | 173,710 | 38.56% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | 6,168 | 1.37% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Michael Peroutka | 1,764 | 0.39% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | 1,733 | 0.38% | 0 | |
| Green | David Cobb | 996 | 0.22% | 0 | |
| Write Ins. | - | 11 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| Totals | - | 100.00% | 6 | ||
| Voter turnout (Voting age population) | 64.2% | ||||
Results breakdown
By county
| County | Bush # | Bush % | Kerry # | Kerry % | Other # | Other % | Total # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beaverhead | 2,102 | 76.35% | 599 | 21.76% | 52 | 1.89% | 2,753 |
| Big Horn | 2,026 | 47.04% | 2,213 | 51.38% | 68 | 1.58% | 4,307 |
| Blaine | 1,484 | 52.48% | 1,300 | 45.97% | 44 | 1.56% | 2,828 |
| Broadwater | 1,778 | 75.56% | 533 | 22.65% | 42 | 1.78% | 2,353 |
| Carbon | 3,341 | 62.80% | 1,847 | 34.72% | 132 | 2.48% | 5,320 |
| Carter | 623 | 87.87% | 76 | 10.72% | 10 | 1.41% | 709 |
| Cascade | 15,399 | 58.28% | 10,425 | 39.46% | 598 | 2.26% | 26,422 |
| Chouteau | 1,921 | 65.70% | 941 | 32.18% | 62 | 2.12% | 2,924 |
| Custer | 3,294 | 65.31% | 1,629 | 32.30% | 121 | 2.40% | 5,044 |
| Daniels | 764 | 68.28% | 326 | 29.13% | 29 | 2.59% | 1,119 |
| Dawson | 2,884 | 64.32% | 1,494 | 33.32% | 106 | 2.36% | 4,484 |
| Deer Lodge | 1,161 | 38.69% | 1,775 | 59.15% | 65 | 2.17% | 3,001 |
| Fallon | 1,178 | 79.01% | 289 | 19.38% | 24 | 1.61% | 1,491 |
| Fergus | 2,006 | 73.59% | 668 | 24.50% | 52 | 1.91% | 2,726 |
| Flathead | 26,019 | 67.27% | 11,587 | 29.96% | 1,072 | 2.77% | 38,678 |
| Gallatin | 13,348 | 54.19% | 10,661 | 43.28% | 622 | 2.53% | 24,631 |
| Garfield | 590 | 90.08% | 52 | 7.94% | 13 | 1.98% | 655 |
| Glacier | 1,828 | 40.07% | 2,641 | 57.89% | 93 | 2.04% | 4,562 |
| Golden Valley | 396 | 75.86% | 119 | 22.80% | 7 | 1.34% | 522 |
| Granite | 1,144 | 71.28% | 404 | 25.17% | 57 | 3.55% | 1,605 |
| Hill County | 2,992 | 55.19% | 2,300 | 42.43% | 129 | 2.38% | 5,421 |
| Jefferson | 3,843 | 65.51% | 1,880 | 32.05% | 143 | 2.44% | 5,866 |
| Judith Basin | 943 | 73.39% | 322 | 25.06% | 20 | 1.56% | 1,285 |
| Lake | 3,952 | 60.41% | 2,425 | 37.07% | 165 | 2.52% | 6,542 |
| Lewis & Clark | 16,432 | 55.30% | 12,655 | 42.59% | 629 | 2.12% | 29,716 |
| Liberty | 734 | 71.06% | 281 | 27.20% | 18 | 1.74% | 1,033 |
| Lincoln | 3,914 | 68.40% | 1,656 | 28.94% | 152 | 2.66% | 5,722 |
| Madison | 2,868 | 72.94% | 983 | 25.00% | 81 | 2.06% | 3,932 |
| McCone | 365 | 63.81% | 187 | 32.69% | 20 | 3.50% | 572 |
| Meagher | 698 | 71.74% | 247 | 25.39% | 28 | 2.88% | 973 |
| Mineral | 1,242 | 67.61% | 542 | 29.50% | 53 | 2.89% | 1,837 |
| Missoula | 22,711 | 45.66% | 25,598 | 51.47% | 1,429 | 2.87% | 49,738 |
| Musselshell | 1,661 | 73.99% | 538 | 23.96% | 46 | 2.05% | 2,245 |
| Park | 4,771 | 58.06% | 3,199 | 38.93% | 247 | 3.01% | 8,217 |
| Petroleum | 228 | 78.08% | 55 | 18.84% | 9 | 3.08% | 292 |
| Phillips | 1,042 | 77.82% | 274 | 20.46% | 23 | 1.72% | 1,339 |
| Pondera | 1,852 | 64.78% | 956 | 33.44% | 51 | 1.78% | 2,859 |
| Powder River | 856 | 83.27% | 154 | 14.98% | 18 | 1.75% | 1,028 |
| Powell | 1,968 | 70.51% | 751 | 26.91% | 72 | 2.58% | 2,791 |
| Prairie | 546 | 74.18% | 181 | 24.59% | 9 | 1.22% | 736 |
| Ravalli | 13,224 | 66.81% | 6,128 | 30.96% | 440 | 2.22% | 19,792 |
| Richland | 3,110 | 72.19% | 1,120 | 26.00% | 78 | 1.81% | 4,308 |
| Roosevelt | 1,760 | 43.74% | 2,193 | 54.50% | 71 | 1.76% | 4,024 |
| Rosebud | 1,982 | 55.29% | 1,520 | 42.40% | 83 | 2.32% | 3,585 |
| Sanders | 3,461 | 67.18% | 1,501 | 29.13% | 190 | 3.69% | 5,152 |
| Sheridan | 1,159 | 56.90% | 845 | 41.48% | 33 | 1.62% | 2,037 |
| Silver Bow | 3,561 | 40.15% | 5,096 | 57.45% | 213 | 2.40% | 8,870 |
| Stillwater | 2,856 | 73.08% | 966 | 24.72% | 86 | 2.20% | 3,908 |
| Sweet Grass | 977 | 75.44% | 292 | 22.55% | 26 | 2.01% | 1,295 |
| Teton | 2,232 | 66.45% | 1,047 | 31.17% | 80 | 2.38% | 3,359 |
| Toole | 1,582 | 68.48% | 690 | 29.87% | 38 | 1.65% | 2,310 |
| Treasure | 348 | 72.20% | 121 | 25.10% | 13 | 2.70% | 482 |
| Valley | 2,476 | 61.67% | 1,429 | 35.59% | 110 | 2.74% | 4,015 |
| Wheatland | 705 | 71.57% | 250 | 25.38% | 30 | 3.05% | 985 |
| Wibaux | 407 | 72.68% | 144 | 25.71% | 9 | 1.61% | 560 |
| Yellowstone | 40,863 | 61.70% | 24,101 | 36.39% | 1,260 | 1.90% | 66,224 |
By congressional district
Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the At-Large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.
| District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| At-large | 59.1% | 38.6% | Denny Rehberg |
Electors
Technically the voters of Montana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Montana is allocated 3 electors because it has 1 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 3 were pledged for Bush/Cheney.[9]
- Jack Galt
- Thelma Baker
- John Brenden
References
- http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW%5B%5D
- http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=30
- http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
- http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
- http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.11.html
- http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
- "2004 Presidential General Election Results - Montana".
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/elections/2004/mt/prescounties/
- "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2006-04-25. Retrieved 2009-10-10.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
