2004 United States presidential election in Arizona

The 2004 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election
2004 United States presidential election in Arizona
November 2, 2004
Turnout77.10%
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,104,294 893,524
Percentage 54.77% 44.32%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

Elections in Arizona
Federal government
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Presidential primaries
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U.S. House elections
Special elections
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State elections
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Ballot propositions
Legislature elections
State Senate elections
State House elections
Chandler
Mayoral elections
Gilbert
Mayoral elections
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Mesa
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Mayoral elections

Arizona was won by incumbent George W. Bush by 10.5%. Prior to the election, 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. Neither major party tickets campaigned here in the fall election. Arizona hosted the third presidential debate on October 13, 2004, in the city of Tempe.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time Arizona was won with a double-digit margin of victory for the Republican candidate. This is the first election in which any candidate won more than a million votes. Maricopa County also cast more than a million votes for the first time.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
  2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
  5. Newsweek: Solid Bush
  6. New York Times: Leans Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Leans Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling
Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2004 United States presidential election: Arizona

Throughout several polls taken in the state in 2004, just one showed Kerry leading. The final 3 pre-election polls showed that Bush was leading with 51% to Kerry's 43%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $3,196,692.[3] Kerry raised $1,525,930.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

The exit polls showed that Bush was the going to be the clear winner of the state, based on the fact that both Bush won among both genders. A major key factor was how 55% of the people thought the state economy was good, and 70% of those people voted for Bush. Also, 55% of the state approved of Bush.[7]

The key to Bush's victory was winning the highly populated Maricopa County with almost 57%. However, Kerry did win portions of state such as Arizona's 4th congressional district and Arizona's 7th congressional district and 4 counties. 50% of the voting age population came out to vote.

Results
2004 United States presidential election in Arizona[8][9][10]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush 1,104,294 54.77% 10
Democratic John Kerry 893,524 44.32% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 11,856 0.59% 0
Write In Write-in candidate 3,517 0.17% 0
Write In Ralph Nader 2,773 0.14% 0
Write In David Cobb 138 0.01% 0
Totals 2,012,585 100.00% 10
Voter turnout (Voting Age) 49.6%

Results by county

Bush won all but four counties.[11]

County George Walker Bush[12]
Republican		 John Forbes Kerry[12]
Democratic		 Michael J. Badarnik[12]
Libertarian		 Various candidates[12]
Write-ins		 Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # %
Apache 8,384 34.65% 15,658 64.71% 142 0.59% 14 0.06% -7,274 -30.06% 24,198
Cochise 26,556 59.70% 17,514 39.37% 318 0.71% 95 0.21% 9,042 20.33% 44,483
Coconino 22,526 43.10% 29,243 55.95% 377 0.72% 121 0.23% -6,717 -12.85% 52,267
Gila 12,343 59.22% 8,314 39.89% 155 0.74% 31 0.15% 4,029 19.33% 20,843
Graham 7,467 69.65% 3,185 29.71% 66 0.62% 2 0.02% 4,282 39.94% 10,720
Greenlee 1,899 61.92% 1,146 37.37% 19 0.62% 3 0.10% 753 24.55% 3,067
La Paz 3,158 62.47% 1,849 36.58% 45 0.89% 3 0.06% 1,309 25.90% 5,055
Maricopa 679,455 56.97% 504,849 42.33% 6,776 0.57% 1,671 0.14% 174,606 14.64% 1,192,751
Mohave 36,794 63.65% 20,503 35.47% 393 0.68% 117 0.20% 16,291 28.18% 57,807
Navajo 17,277 53.42% 14,815 45.81% 224 0.69% 27 0.08% 2,462 7.61% 32,343
Pima 171,109 46.64% 193,128 52.64% 2,109 0.57% 561 0.15% -22,019 -6.00% 366,907
Pinal 37,006 57.27% 27,252 42.17% 333 0.52% 31 0.05% 9,754 15.09% 64,622
Santa Cruz 4,668 40.01% 6,909 59.21% 80 0.69% 11 0.09% -2,241 -19.21% 11,668
Yavapai 53,468 61.18% 33,127 37.91% 612 0.70% 182 0.21% 20,341 23.28% 87,389
Yuma 22,184 57.67% 16,032 41.68% 207 0.54% 42 0.11% 6,152 15.99% 38,465
Totals1,104,29454.77%893,52444.32%11,8560.59%2,9110.14%210,77010.45%2,016,102[lower-alpha 1]

Results by congressional district

Bush won six of eight congressional districts.[13]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 54% 46% Rick Renzi
2nd 61% 38% Trent Franks
3rd 58% 41% John Shadegg
4th 38% 62% Ed Pastor
5th 54% 45% J.D. Hayworth
6th 64% 35% Jeff Flake
7th 43% 57% Raul Grijalva
8th 53% 46% Jim Kolbe


Electors
Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Arizona cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arizona is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from this state. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.[14]

  1. Linda Barber
  2. Malcolm Barrett
  3. Jim Click
  4. Cynthia J. Collins
  5. Webb Crockett
  6. Elizabeth Wilkinson Fannin
  7. Ross Farnsworth
  8. Ira A. Fulton
  9. Bernice C. Roberts
  10. Phillip Townsend

Notes
  1. This total includes 3,517 write-in votes for miscellaneous candidates that were not separated by county.

References
  3. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 2015-05-31.
  4. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 2015-05-31.
  5. "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 2015-05-31.
  6. "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 2015-05-31.
  7. "Election 2004". Cnn.com. 1970-04-13. Retrieved 2015-05-31.
  8. "Election 2004". Cnn.com. 1970-04-13. Retrieved 2015-05-31.
  9. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2009-05-13. Retrieved 2009-07-17.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  10. "2004 Presidential General Election Results - Arizona".
  11. "Election 2004". Cnn.com. 1970-04-13. Retrieved 2015-05-31.
  12. Our campaigns; AZ US President Race, November 07, 2000
  13. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008". Swingstateproject.com. Retrieved 2015-05-31.
  14. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2008-05-14. Retrieved 2009-06-27.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
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