2018 Arizona gubernatorial election

The 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Arizona, concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2018 Arizona gubernatorial election

November 6, 2018
 
Nominee Doug Ducey David Garcia
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,330,863 994,341
Percentage 56.0% 41.8%

County results
Ducey:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Garcia:      50–60%      60–70%

Governor before election

Doug Ducey
Republican

Elected Governor

Doug Ducey
Republican

The primary was held on August 28.[1] Despite considerably closer contests in other Arizona state elections, which included Democratic gains for U.S. Senate, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey won a second term, with a slightly increased majority from his 2014 win and the largest margin of victory of any statewide candidate on the ballot. This is the first time since 1990 in which someone who was of the same party of the incumbent president won an Arizona gubernatorial election.

Republican primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Doug Ducey

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Doug
Ducey
Ken
Bennett
Undecided
Emerson College June 21–22, 2018 305 ± 5.9% 44% 22% 35%

Results

Results by county:
  Ducey—70–80%
  Ducey—60–70%
  Ducey—50–60%
Republican primary results[30]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Doug Ducey (incumbent) 463,672 70.7
Republican Ken Bennett 191,775 29.3
Republican Robert Weber (write-in) 91 0.0
Total votes 655,538 99.98

Democratic primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Steve Farley, state senator[33]
  • Kelly Fryer, nonprofit executive and activist[34]
  • Mirza Fareed "Fareed" Baig (write-in)[5]

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Steve
Farley
Kelly
Fryer
David
Garcia
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights August 14–15, 2018 589 ± 4.0% 25% 7% 40% 28%
Data Orbital June 25–27, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 11% 6% 33% 49%
Emerson College June 21–22, 2018 260 ± 6.2% 13% 8% 30% 48%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Garcia) May 21–23, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 11% 11% 32% 46%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) January 5–7, 2018 446 22% 43% 36%

Results

Results by county:
  Garcia—60–70%
  Garcia—50–60%
  Garcia—40–50%
  Garcia—<40%
  Farley—40–50%
Democratic primary results[30]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic David Garcia 255,555 50.6
Democratic Steve Farley 163,072 32.3
Democratic Kelly Fryer 86,810 17.2
Democratic Mirza Fareed Baig (write-in) 44 0.0
Total votes 505,481 100.0

Libertarian primary

Disqualified

  • Jeff Funicello, activist[51]
  • Barry Hess (write-in)[5]
  • Kevin McCormick,[5] candidate for president in 2016[52][53]

Endorsements

Kevin McCormick
Individuals

Green primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Results

Results by county:
Green primary results[56]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Angel Torres (write-in) 357 76.3
Green Noah Dyer (write-in) 111 23.7
Total votes 468 100.0

Independents

Disqualified

  • Noah Dyer, author, businessman and educator[57][58]
  • Christian R. Komor, author, psychologist, climate scientist[59]

Declined

General election

Debates

Dates Location Ducey Garcia Link
September 24, 2018 Tempe, Arizona Participant Participant Full debate - YouTube
September 25, 2018 Tucson, Arizona Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[61] Likely R October 5, 2018
The Washington Post[62] Likely R October 16, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[63] Likely R October 17, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[64] Likely R October 12, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[65] Likely R October 11, 2018
Real Clear Politics[66] Likely R October 11, 2018
Daily Kos[67] Likely R October 5, 2018
Fox News[68][lower-alpha 1] Likely R October 12, 2018
Politico[69] Likely R October 12, 2018
Governing[70] Lean R October 2, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Doug
Ducey (R)
David
Garcia (D)
Angel
Torres (G)
Other Undecided
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 53% 39%
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 55% 37%
Emerson College November 1–3, 2018 758 ± 3.7% 55% 40% 5%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 57% 36%
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 54% 39% 2% 5%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 56% 37%
Gravis Marketing October 24 – November 2, 2018 1,165 ± 2.9% 53% 40% 7%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 57% 36%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 54% 37%
Vox Populi Polling October 27–30, 2018 677 ± 3.7% 54% 46%
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 57% 35%
Fox News October 27–29, 2018 643 LV ± 3.5% 55% 37% 2% 5%
710 RV ± 3.5% 54% 35% 3% 7%
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018 702 LV ± 4.4% 52% 45% 0% 1%
867 RV ± 4.0% 52% 43% 0% 3%
HighGround Public Affairs October 26–28, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 55% 35% 4% 7%
Marist College October 23–27, 2018 506 LV ± 5.4% 54% 40% 5% <1% 2%
55% 42% 1% 1%
793 RV ± 4.4% 54% 38% 5% <1% 3%
55% 41% 1% 3%
YouGov October 23–26, 2018 972 ± 4.1% 52% 41% 1% 5%
Ipsos October 17–26, 2018 799 ± 4.0% 57% 37% 2% 3%
OH Predictive Insights October 22–23, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 57% 39% 1% 3%
Change Research (D-Garcia) October 9–10, 2018 783 47% 40% 11%
OH Predictive Insights October 3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 54% 37% 2% 7%
Data Orbital October 1–3, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 52% 34% 2% 2% 9%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 716 LV ± 3.5% 55% 37% 1% 7%
806 RV ± 3.5% 54% 35% 2% 9%
Vox Populi Polling September 29 – October 1, 2018 702 ± 3.5% 57% 43%
Suffolk University September 27–30, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 38% 2% 0% 10%
Latino Decisions September 10–25, 2018 463 LV 45% 40% 15%
610 RV 41% 37% 19%
Emerson College September 19–21, 2018 650 ± 4.4% 42% 38% 6% 14%
Marist College September 16–20, 2018 564 LV ± 4.7% 49% 39% 6% <1% 6%
51% 43% <1% 5%
763 RV ± 4.2% 48% 37% 7% <1% 7%
51% 42% 1% 6%
CNN/SSRS September 11–15, 2018 761 LV ± 4.3% 49% 46% 0% 2%
854 RV ± 4.1% 48% 45% 1% 4%
Ipsos September 5–14, 2018 1,016 ± 4.0% 51% 39% 4% 7%
TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ) September 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 49% 48% 0% 3%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 710 LV ± 3.5% 51% 40% 1% 8%
801 RV ± 3.5% 49% 39% 1% 10%
Gravis Marketing September 5–7, 2018 882 ± 3.3% 48% 44% 9%
Data Orbital September 4–6, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 49% 41% 2%[71] 8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) August 30–31, 2018 554 ± 4.2% 44% 43% 13%
Gravis Marketing June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 41% 42% 17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) January 5–7, 2018 735 ± 4.0% 42% 43% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) June 7–8, 2017 1,020 ± 3.1% 42% 44% 14%

Results

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2018[72]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Doug Ducey (incumbent) 1,330,863 56.00% +2.56%
Democratic David Garcia 994,341 41.84% +0.22%
Green Angel Torres 50,962 2.14% N/A
None Patrick Masoya (write-in) 177 0.01% N/A
None Christian Komor (write-in) 66 0.00% N/A
Green Cary D. Dolego (write-in) 13 0.00% N/A
Republican Takeover Arthur Ray "RT" Arvizu (write-in) 12 0.00% N/A
Humanitarian James "MarvelMan" Gibson II (write-in) 7 0.00% N/A
Total votes '2,376,441' '100.0%' N/A
Republican hold

Voter Demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Garcia Ducey No
Answer
% of
Voters
Gender
Men 40 58 2 47
Women 43 55 2 53
Age
18-24 years old N/A N/A N/A 5
25-29 years old N/A N/A N/A 4
30-39 years old 45 52 3 17
40-49 years old 43 55 2 16
50-64 years old 37 61 2 29
65 and older 40 59 1 29
Race
White 37 62 1 75
Black N/A N/A N/A 2
Latino 56 44 N/A 19
Asian N/A N/A N/A 1
Other N/A N/A N/A 1
Race and Gender
White men 34 64 2 34
White women 39 60 1 41
Black men N/A N/A N/A 1
Black women N/A N/A N/A 1
Latino men 53 46 1 9
Latina women 58 42 N/A 10
Others N/A N/A N/A 4
Education
High school or less 32 67 1 25
Some college education 40 58 2 28
Associate Degree 38 59 3 10
Bachelor's Degree 46 51 3 23
Advanced degree 59 40 1 14
Education and race
White college graduates 48 49 3 27
White no college degree 30 69 1 38
Non-white college graduates 51 47 2 9
Non-white no college degree 61 38 1 16
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees 50 49 1 15
White women without college degrees 33 66 1 26
White men with college degrees 46 49 5 12
White men without college degrees 28 72 N/A 21
Non-whites 58 40 2 25
Military service
Veteran 33 65 2 14
Non-veteran 45 54 1 86
Income
Under $30,000 36 62 2 15
$30,000-$49,999 54 45 1 19
$50,000-$99,999 46 52 2 33
$100,000-$199,999 31 67 2 24
Over $200,000 28 72 N/A 9
Party ID
Democrats 85 14 1 31
Republicans 5 95 N/A 38
Independents 45 52 3 31
Party by gender
Democratic men 77 20 3 14
Democratic women 91 9 N/A 17
Republican men 5 95 N/A 15
Republican women 4 96 N/A 23
Independent men 42 56 2 18
Independent women 48 47 5 13
Ideology
Liberals 83 16 1 22
Moderates 57 41 2 38
Conservatives 4 95 1 40
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 51 45 4 15
No 41 58 1 85
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 64 33 3 42
Immigration 8 91 1 31
Economy 38 60 2 18
Gun policy N/A N/A N/A 7
Area type
Urban 52 46 2 43
Suburban 34 64 2 51
Rural N/A N/A N/A 5
Source: CNN[73]

References

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Official campaign websites
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