2018 Arizona gubernatorial election
The 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Arizona, concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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County results Ducey: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Garcia: 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Arizona |
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The primary was held on August 28.[1] Despite considerably closer contests in other Arizona state elections, which included Democratic gains for U.S. Senate, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey won a second term, with a slightly increased majority from his 2014 win and the largest margin of victory of any statewide candidate on the ballot. This is the first time since 1990 in which someone who was of the same party of the incumbent president won an Arizona gubernatorial election.
Republican primary
Nominee
- Doug Ducey, incumbent governor[2]
Eliminated in primary
- Ken Bennett, former secretary of state of Arizona[3][4]
- Robert Weber (write-in)[5]
Endorsements
- Arizona Association of REALTORS[6]
- Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry[7]
- Arizona Fraternal Order of Police[8]
- Arizona Police Association[9]
- Arizona State Troopers Association[10]
- The Arizona Republic[11]
- Arizona Daily Star[12]
- Casa Grande Dispatch[13]
- Today's News-Herald (Lake Havasu City, Arizona)[14]
- The Daily Courier (Prescott, Arizona)[15]
- Chandler Chamber of Commerce[16]
- Gilbert Chamber of Commerce[17]
- Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce[18]
- Flagstaff Chamber of Commerce[19]
- Mesa Chamber of Commerce[20]
- Tucson Metro Chamber[21]
- National Border Patrol Council[22]
- National Federation of Independent Business[23]
- Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona[24]
- Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff[25]
- Scott Mascher, Yavapai County Sheriff[25]
- Mark Napier, Pima County Sheriff[25]
- John Doyle, Nogales Mayor[26]
- Gerardo Sanchez, San Luis Mayor[26]
- Robert Uribe, Douglas Mayor[26]
- Cindy McCain, philanthropist and businesswoman[27]
- Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States[28]
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[29]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Doug Ducey |
Ken Bennett |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | June 21–22, 2018 | 305 | ± 5.9% | 44% | 22% | 35% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Doug Ducey (incumbent) | 463,672 | 70.7 | |
Republican | Ken Bennett | 191,775 | 29.3 | |
Republican | Robert Weber (write-in) | 91 | 0.0 | |
Total votes | 655,538 | 99.98 |
Democratic primary
Nominee
- David Garcia, Arizona State University professor and nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2014[31][32]
Eliminated in primary
- Steve Farley, state senator[33]
- Kelly Fryer, nonprofit executive and activist[34]
- Mirza Fareed "Fareed" Baig (write-in)[5]
Declined
- Terry Goddard, former Arizona Attorney General and nominee for governor in 2010 and 1990[35]
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Representative (running for U.S. Senate)[36]
- Greg Stanton, Mayor of Phoenix (running for AZ-09)[37][38]
Endorsements
- Labor unions
- American Federation of Government Employees[39]
- Arizona Building and Construction Trades Council[40]
- Arizona Education Association[41]
- Communications Workers of America[42]
- Organizations
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Farley |
Kelly Fryer |
David Garcia |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | August 14–15, 2018 | 589 | ± 4.0% | 25% | 7% | 40% | 28% |
Data Orbital | June 25–27, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 11% | 6% | 33% | 49% |
Emerson College | June 21–22, 2018 | 260 | ± 6.2% | 13% | 8% | 30% | 48% |
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Garcia) | May 21–23, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 11% | 11% | 32% | 46% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | January 5–7, 2018 | 446 | – | 22% | – | 43% | 36% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | David Garcia | 255,555 | 50.6 | |
Democratic | Steve Farley | 163,072 | 32.3 | |
Democratic | Kelly Fryer | 86,810 | 17.2 | |
Democratic | Mirza Fareed Baig (write-in) | 44 | 0.0 | |
Total votes | 505,481 | 100.0 |
Libertarian primary
Disqualified
Endorsements
- Individuals
- William Weld, former Governor of Massachusetts[54]
Green primary
Independents
Disqualified
Declined
- Tim Jeffries, former director of the Arizona Department of Economic Security[60]
General election
Debates
Dates | Location | Ducey | Garcia | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|
September 24, 2018 | Tempe, Arizona | Participant | Participant | Full debate - YouTube |
September 25, 2018 | Tucson, Arizona | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[61] | Likely R | October 5, 2018 |
The Washington Post[62] | Likely R | October 16, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[63] | Likely R | October 17, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report[64] | Likely R | October 12, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[65] | Likely R | October 11, 2018 |
Real Clear Politics[66] | Likely R | October 11, 2018 |
Daily Kos[67] | Likely R | October 5, 2018 |
Fox News[68][lower-alpha 1] | Likely R | October 12, 2018 |
Politico[69] | Likely R | October 12, 2018 |
Governing[70] | Lean R | October 2, 2018 |
- Notes
- The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Doug Ducey (R) |
David Garcia (D) |
Angel Torres (G) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HarrisX | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 39% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 55% | 37% | – | – | – |
Emerson College | November 1–3, 2018 | 758 | ± 3.7% | 55% | 40% | – | – | 5% |
HarrisX | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 36% | – | – | – |
Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 39% | – | 2% | 5% |
HarrisX | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 56% | 37% | – | – | – |
Gravis Marketing | October 24 – November 2, 2018 | 1,165 | ± 2.9% | 53% | 40% | – | – | 7% |
HarrisX | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 36% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 37% | – | – | – |
Vox Populi Polling | October 27–30, 2018 | 677 | ± 3.7% | 54% | 46% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | 57% | 35% | – | – | – |
Fox News | October 27–29, 2018 | 643 LV | ± 3.5% | 55% | 37% | – | 2% | 5% |
710 RV | ± 3.5% | 54% | 35% | – | 3% | 7% | ||
CNN/SSRS | October 24–29, 2018 | 702 LV | ± 4.4% | 52% | 45% | – | 0% | 1% |
867 RV | ± 4.0% | 52% | 43% | – | 0% | 3% | ||
HighGround Public Affairs | October 26–28, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 55% | 35% | 4% | – | 7% |
Marist College | October 23–27, 2018 | 506 LV | ± 5.4% | 54% | 40% | 5% | <1% | 2% |
55% | 42% | – | 1% | 1% | ||||
793 RV | ± 4.4% | 54% | 38% | 5% | <1% | 3% | ||
55% | 41% | – | 1% | 3% | ||||
YouGov | October 23–26, 2018 | 972 | ± 4.1% | 52% | 41% | – | 1% | 5% |
Ipsos | October 17–26, 2018 | 799 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 37% | – | 2% | 3% |
OH Predictive Insights | October 22–23, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 39% | 1% | – | 3% |
Change Research (D-Garcia) | October 9–10, 2018 | 783 | – | 47% | 40% | – | – | 11% |
OH Predictive Insights | October 3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 37% | 2% | – | 7% |
Data Orbital | October 1–3, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 52% | 34% | 2% | 2% | 9% |
Fox News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 716 LV | ± 3.5% | 55% | 37% | – | 1% | 7% |
806 RV | ± 3.5% | 54% | 35% | – | 2% | 9% | ||
Vox Populi Polling | September 29 – October 1, 2018 | 702 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 43% | – | – | – |
Suffolk University | September 27–30, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 38% | 2% | 0% | 10% |
Latino Decisions | September 10–25, 2018 | 463 LV | – | 45% | 40% | – | – | 15% |
610 RV | – | 41% | 37% | – | – | 19% | ||
Emerson College | September 19–21, 2018 | 650 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 38% | – | 6% | 14% |
Marist College | September 16–20, 2018 | 564 LV | ± 4.7% | 49% | 39% | 6% | <1% | 6% |
51% | 43% | – | <1% | 5% | ||||
763 RV | ± 4.2% | 48% | 37% | 7% | <1% | 7% | ||
51% | 42% | – | 1% | 6% | ||||
CNN/SSRS | September 11–15, 2018 | 761 LV | ± 4.3% | 49% | 46% | – | 0% | 2% |
854 RV | ± 4.1% | 48% | 45% | – | 1% | 4% | ||
Ipsos | September 5–14, 2018 | 1,016 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 39% | – | 4% | 7% |
TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ) | September 8–13, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | – | 0% | 3% |
Fox News | September 8–11, 2018 | 710 LV | ± 3.5% | 51% | 40% | – | 1% | 8% |
801 RV | ± 3.5% | 49% | 39% | – | 1% | 10% | ||
Gravis Marketing | September 5–7, 2018 | 882 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 44% | – | – | 9% |
Data Orbital | September 4–6, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 41% | – | 2%[71] | 8% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | August 30–31, 2018 | 554 | ± 4.2% | 44% | 43% | – | – | 13% |
Gravis Marketing | June 27 – July 2, 2018 | 925 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 42% | – | – | 17% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | January 5–7, 2018 | 735 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | – | – | 15% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | June 7–8, 2017 | 1,020 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 44% | – | – | 14% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Doug Ducey (incumbent) | 1,330,863 | 56.00% | +2.56% | |
Democratic | David Garcia | 994,341 | 41.84% | +0.22% | |
Green | Angel Torres | 50,962 | 2.14% | N/A | |
None | Patrick Masoya (write-in) | 177 | 0.01% | N/A | |
None | Christian Komor (write-in) | 66 | 0.00% | N/A | |
Green | Cary D. Dolego (write-in) | 13 | 0.00% | N/A | |
Republican Takeover | Arthur Ray "RT" Arvizu (write-in) | 12 | 0.00% | N/A | |
Humanitarian | James "MarvelMan" Gibson II (write-in) | 7 | 0.00% | N/A | |
Total votes | '2,376,441' | '100.0%' | N/A | ||
Republican hold |
Voter Demographics
Demographic subgroup | Garcia | Ducey | No Answer |
% of Voters |
---|---|---|---|---|
Gender | ||||
Men | 40 | 58 | 2 | 47 |
Women | 43 | 55 | 2 | 53 |
Age | ||||
18-24 years old | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5 |
25-29 years old | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 |
30-39 years old | 45 | 52 | 3 | 17 |
40-49 years old | 43 | 55 | 2 | 16 |
50-64 years old | 37 | 61 | 2 | 29 |
65 and older | 40 | 59 | 1 | 29 |
Race | ||||
White | 37 | 62 | 1 | 75 |
Black | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
Latino | 56 | 44 | N/A | 19 |
Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Other | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Race and Gender | ||||
White men | 34 | 64 | 2 | 34 |
White women | 39 | 60 | 1 | 41 |
Black men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Black women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Latino men | 53 | 46 | 1 | 9 |
Latina women | 58 | 42 | N/A | 10 |
Others | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 |
Education | ||||
High school or less | 32 | 67 | 1 | 25 |
Some college education | 40 | 58 | 2 | 28 |
Associate Degree | 38 | 59 | 3 | 10 |
Bachelor's Degree | 46 | 51 | 3 | 23 |
Advanced degree | 59 | 40 | 1 | 14 |
Education and race | ||||
White college graduates | 48 | 49 | 3 | 27 |
White no college degree | 30 | 69 | 1 | 38 |
Non-white college graduates | 51 | 47 | 2 | 9 |
Non-white no college degree | 61 | 38 | 1 | 16 |
Whites by education and gender | ||||
White women with college degrees | 50 | 49 | 1 | 15 |
White women without college degrees | 33 | 66 | 1 | 26 |
White men with college degrees | 46 | 49 | 5 | 12 |
White men without college degrees | 28 | 72 | N/A | 21 |
Non-whites | 58 | 40 | 2 | 25 |
Military service | ||||
Veteran | 33 | 65 | 2 | 14 |
Non-veteran | 45 | 54 | 1 | 86 |
Income | ||||
Under $30,000 | 36 | 62 | 2 | 15 |
$30,000-$49,999 | 54 | 45 | 1 | 19 |
$50,000-$99,999 | 46 | 52 | 2 | 33 |
$100,000-$199,999 | 31 | 67 | 2 | 24 |
Over $200,000 | 28 | 72 | N/A | 9 |
Party ID | ||||
Democrats | 85 | 14 | 1 | 31 |
Republicans | 5 | 95 | N/A | 38 |
Independents | 45 | 52 | 3 | 31 |
Party by gender | ||||
Democratic men | 77 | 20 | 3 | 14 |
Democratic women | 91 | 9 | N/A | 17 |
Republican men | 5 | 95 | N/A | 15 |
Republican women | 4 | 96 | N/A | 23 |
Independent men | 42 | 56 | 2 | 18 |
Independent women | 48 | 47 | 5 | 13 |
Ideology | ||||
Liberals | 83 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
Moderates | 57 | 41 | 2 | 38 |
Conservatives | 4 | 95 | 1 | 40 |
First-time midterm election voter | ||||
Yes | 51 | 45 | 4 | 15 |
No | 41 | 58 | 1 | 85 |
Most important issue facing the country | ||||
Health care | 64 | 33 | 3 | 42 |
Immigration | 8 | 91 | 1 | 31 |
Economy | 38 | 60 | 2 | 18 |
Gun policy | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7 |
Area type | ||||
Urban | 52 | 46 | 2 | 43 |
Suburban | 34 | 64 | 2 | 51 |
Rural | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5 |
Source: CNN[73] |
References
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- "Ducey 2018". www.ducey2018.com.
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- "ARIZONA FRATERNAL ORDER OF POLICE ENDORSES DOUG DUCEY". Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona. August 21, 2018.
- "ARIZONA POLICE ASSOCIATION ENDORSES DOUG DUCEY". Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona. August 20, 2018.
- "Arizona State Troopers Association Endorses Doug Ducey - Doug Ducey for Governor". Doug Ducey for Governor. 2018-09-25. Retrieved 2018-11-01.
- "THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC ENDORSES DOUG DUCEY". Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona. August 1, 2018.
- "Star Opinion: Doug Ducey for Arizona governor". Arizona Daily Star. October 15, 2018.
- "Governor's race". Casa Grande Dispatch. July 18, 2018.
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- "Editorial: Courier offers picks in partisan races, ballot questions". The Daily Courier. October 20, 2018.
- "Chandler Chamber announces picks for upcoming election". Wrangler News. June 22, 2018.
- "GREATER PHOENIX CHAMBER ANNOUNCES ENDORSEMENTS FOR 2018 STATE ELECTIONS". Gilbert Chamber of Commerce. Archived from the original on 2018-09-11. Retrieved 2018-09-10.
- "GREATER PHOENIX CHAMBER ENDORSES GOVERNOR DUCEY". phoenixchamber.com. June 28, 2018.
- Skabelund, Adrian. "Garcia visits Flagstaff as chamber chooses Ducey for governor". Arizona Daily Sun. Retrieved 2018-11-01.
- "Mesa Chamber Announces 2018 Candidate Endorsements". mesachamber.org. June 27, 2018.
- "TUCSON METRO CHAMBER ENDORSES GOVERNOR DUCEY". Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona. October 5, 2018.
- "Border Patrol Unions Back Arizona Gov. Ducey for Re-Election". usnews.com. Associated Press. September 10, 2018.
- "Small Business PAC Endorses Governor Ducey for Re-election". NFIB. 2018-09-26. Retrieved 2018-11-01.
- "Arizona Firefighters Endorse Doug Ducey". Doug Ducey for Governor. 2018-10-16. Retrieved 2018-11-01.
- "ARIZONA SHERIFFS ENDORSE GOVERNOR DUCEY". Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona. October 4, 2018.
- "DOUG DUCEY EARNS BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FROM BORDER MAYORS". Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona. September 18, 2018.
- Maria Polletta (September 26, 2018). "Cindy McCain endorses Doug Ducey in governor's race". The Arizona Republic.
- Mike Pence. "Congratulations to @DougDucey on his primary victory tonight in Arizona. We need strong governors like Doug across this nation to help enact the @RealDonaldTrump agenda that has our economy BOOMING! We're with you all the way!". Twitter.
- Donald J. Trump. "Governor Doug Ducey of Arizona is doing a great job. It would be really nice to show your support tomorrow by voting for him in Tuesdays Primary. Doug is strong on Crime, the Border, and our Second Amendment. Loves our Military & our Vets. He has my full and complete Endorsement". Twitter.
- "Statewide canvass" (PDF). azsos.gov.
- Resnik, Brahm (April 7, 2017). "Democrat David Garcia to announce run for Arizona governor". 12 News. Retrieved April 9, 2017.
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- Nunez, Steve. "UPDATE: Democrat Kelly Fryer announces run for AZ governor. Democrat Steve Farley announces run for AZ governor".
- "Tucson Democrat Kelly Fryer enters race for governor".
- "Valdez: Who do politicians love? Here's why you need to see the donor list". Retrieved 22 May 2018.
- Cohen, Zach C. (December 8, 2016). "FWIW, @RepSinema (D-AZ) told me yesterday, "I am not running for governor."". Twitter. Retrieved December 8, 2016.
- Gardiner, Dustin (November 1, 2016). "Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton eyeing run for statewide office". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved November 4, 2016.
- Boehm, Jessica (October 5, 2017). "Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton announces run for Congress". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 5, 2017.
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- "Endorsement". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org.
- "Join the Bold Progressive Movement!". Progressive Change Campaign Committee (BoldProgressives.org).
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- Sotlz, Jon (May 3, 2018). "VoteVets PAC Endorses David Garcia for Governor". VoteVets.org.
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- "McCormick For Governor Announcement". September 14, 2017. Retrieved October 25, 2017.
- Martinez, Remso W. (September 13, 2017). "Breaking: Former Libertarian Presidential Candidate To Run For Arizona Governor". Halsey News. Retrieved December 11, 2017.
- "Weld Endorses McCormick". Facebook. Facebook.
- "Candidate Search".
- "Torres for Arizona Governor video (Arizona Primary Election victory): September 8, 2018". www.torresforarizona.com. Angel Torres/Green Party.
- "Noah Dyer announces his bid for Arizona governor". azcentral.
- Wingett Sanchez, Yvonne (July 26, 2017). "Fed up with Democrats, Arizona governor candidate Noah Dyer changes to independent". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 5, 2017.
- "2018 Senate Congressional General Election Candidates" (PDF). County Supervisors Association of Arizona. Retrieved July 11, 2019.
- "Jeffries Will Not Run For Governor, Will Proceed With Lawsuit". Arizona Daily Independent. January 22, 2018. Retrieved January 25, 2018.
- "2018 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2018-08-24.
- "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
- "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
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- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2018-08-24.
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- "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. August 13, 2018.
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- "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
- "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Retrieved 2018-07-18.
- Barry Hess (L) with 2%
- "Statewide canvass" (PDF). azsos.gov.
- "Arizona Gubernatorial Election exit poll". CNN. Retrieved March 29, 2019.
External links
- Official campaign websites