2016 United States presidential election in Arizona

The 2016 United States presidential election in Arizona was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Arizona
November 8, 2016
Turnout74.17%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,252,401 1,161,167
Percentage 48.08% 44.58%
County Results
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Arizona
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House elections
Special elections
State government
State elections
Gubernatorial elections
Ballot propositions
Legislature elections
State Senate elections
State House elections
Chandler
Mayoral elections
Gilbert
Mayoral elections
Glendale
Mayoral elections
Mesa
Mayoral elections
Phoenix
Mayoral elections
Scottsdale
Mayoral elections
Tucson
Mayoral elections
Results by county showing number of votes by size, and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county

Notably, Maricopa County, the state's most populous county, went more Democratic than the state as a whole. The county had not voted for a Democrat since Harry S. Truman in 1948. Therefore, Trump's narrow win in the county suggested the Republican Party was losing ground in the state. In fact, in the 2020 election, the county would vote Democratic. Despite the rest of the country swinging to the right, Arizona decreased its margin of victory from 9.03% in 2012[2] to only 3.5% this year, largely due to the presence on the ballot of New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who received more than 4% of the vote. In fact, Clinton's vote share was not significantly different from those of previous five Democratic presidential nominees, and it was actually less than that of her husband Bill Clinton in 1996.

Primary elections
Main article: 2016 Arizona presidential primary

Democratic primary
Main article: 2016 Arizona Democratic primary
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at a campaign rally at Carl Hayden High School in Phoenix on March 21, 2016.
Senator Bernie Sanders at a campaign rally at the Phoenix Convention Center in Phoenix on March 15, 2016.
Former President Bill Clinton at a campaign rally for his wife at Central High School in Phoenix on March 20, 2016.

Six candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[3]

Opinion polling
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries § Arizona

Results
See also: Results of the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
 2016 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Arizona
– Summary of results –
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 262,459 56.29% 42 6 48
Bernie Sanders 192,962 41.39% 33 1 34
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 3,877 0.83%
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente 2,797 0.60%
Michael Steinberg 2,295 0.49%
Henry Hewes 1,845 0.40%
Uncommitted N/A 3 3
Total 466,235 100% 75 10 85
Source: The Green Papers, Arizona Secretary of State
Detailed results per congressional district
Detailed results for the Arizona Democratic primary, April 5, 2016[4][5]
District Total Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Votes Delegates Votes % Delegates Votes % Delegates
1st district 63,863 6 35,445 55.50% 3 26,267 41.13% 3
2nd district 78,237 8 42,797 54.70% 4 33,891 43.32% 4
3rd district 51,520 5 30,298 58.81% 3 20,091 39.00% 2
4th district 37,273 4 15,289 55.43% 2 20,662 41.02% 2
5th district 40,847 5 22,973 56.24% 3 16,982 41.57% 2
6th district 50,465 6 29,266 57.99% 4 20,259 40.14% 2
7th district 42,199 5 24,245 57.45% 3 17,173 40.70% 2
8th district 46,491 5 27,672 59.52% 3 17,651 37.97% 2
9th district 55,340 6 29,101 52.59% 3 25,359 45.82% 3
At-large delegates 466,235 16 262,459 56.29% 9 192,962 41.39% 7
Pledged PLEOs 466,235 9 262,459 56.29% 5 192,962 41.39% 4
Total 466,235 75 262,464 56.29% 42 192,965 41.39% 33

Republican primary
Main article: 2016 Arizona Republican primary
Businessman Donald Trump at a campaign rally at Fountain Park in Fountain Hills on March 19, 2016.
Senator Ted Cruz at a campaign rally at Arizona Christian University in Phoenix on March 18, 2016.

Fourteen candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[6]

Arizona Republican primary, March 22, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 286,743 45.95% 58 0 58
Ted Cruz 172,294 27.61% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn) 72,304 11.59% 0 0 0
John Kasich 65,965 10.57% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 14,940 2.39% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 4,393 0.70% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 2,269 0.36% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 1,300 0.21% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 1,270 0.20% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 988 0.16% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 523 0.08% 0 0 0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) 498 0.08% 0 0 0
George Pataki (withdrawn) 309 0.05% 0 0 0
Timothy Cook (withdrawn) 243 0.04% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 624,039 100.00% 58 0 58
Source: The Green Papers

Green primary
Green Party candidate Jill Stein at a campaign rally at the Mesa Public Library in Mesa on March 12, 2016.

The Arizona Green Party held its primary on March 22. Jill Stein won with 82% of the vote, and the overall number of voters that took place in the primary saw an increase from 561 in 2012 to 770 in 2016.[7] Only two candidates qualified for the primary:[8]

Arizona Green Party presidential primary, March 22, 2016[9]
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Jill Stein 666 82% 5
Kent Mesplay 151 18% 1
Write-in/Blank 18 2% -
Total 817 100.00% 6

Polling
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Arizona

The first poll conducted in March 2016 showed a tie between Clinton and Trump. From March 2016 to October, the polling in this normally Republican state was quite close, with neither candidate seriously leading. In late October, Trump gained momentum and won every pre-election poll in the weeks leading up to the election. The final poll showed Trump leading Clinton 46% to 41% and the average of the final 3 polls showed Trump leading 47% to 43%, which was accurate compared to the results. [10]

General election

Predictions

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Arizona as of Election Day.

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[11] Lean D (flip) November 6, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Lean R November 7, 2016
CNN[13] Tossup November 8, 2016
NBC[14] Tossup November 8, 2016
RealClearPolitics[15] Tossup November 8, 2016
Fox News[16] Lean R November 7, 2016
ABC[17] Tossup November 7, 2016

Statewide results
2016 United States presidential election in Arizona[18]
Party Candidate Running mate Popular vote Electoral vote Swing
Count % Count %
Republican Donald Trump of New York Mike Pence of Indiana 1,252,401 48.08% 11 100.00% 5.40%
Democratic Hillary Clinton of New York Tim Kaine of Virginia 1,161,167 44.58% 0 0.00% 0.13%
Libertarian Gary Johnson of New Mexico Bill Weld of Massachusetts 106,327 4.08% 0 0.00% 2.69%
Green Jill Stein of Massachusetts Ajamu Baraka of Illinois 34,345 1.32% 0 0.00% 0.98%
Write-in Various of Various Various of Various 31,662 1.22% 0 0.00% 0.90%
Independent Evan McMullin (write-in) of Utah Nathan Johnson of California 17,449 0.67% 0 0.00% 0.67%
Constitution Darrell Castle (write-in) of Tennessee Scott Bradley of Utah 1,058 0.04% 0 0.00% 0.03%
Independent Tom Hoefling (write-in) of Iowa Steve Schulin of South Carolina 85 0.00% 0 0.00%
Independent Mike Smith (write-in) of Tennessee Daniel L. White of 62 0.00% 0 0.00%
Independent Laurence Kotlikoff (write-in) of Massachusetts Edward E. Leamer of California 52 0.00% 0 0.00%
Reform Rocky De La Fuente (write-in) of California Michael Steinberg of Florida 29 0.00% 0 0.00%
Independent Joseph Allen Maldonado (write-in) of Oklahoma Douglas Terranova of 20 0.00% 0 0.00%
Total 2,604,657 100.00% 11 100.00%

Results by county
CountyTrump#Trump%Clinton#Clinton%Others#Others%Total Votes
Apache8,24030.50%17,08363.24%1,7836.58%27,106
Cochise28,09257.41%17,45035.66%3,8337.76%49,375
Coconino21,10836.45%32,40456.44%4,9198.42%58,431
Gila14,18263.88%7,00331.55%1,1235.03%22,308
Graham8,02567.22%3,30127.65%8066.64%12,132
Greenlee1,89258.34%1,09233.67%2868.75%3,270
La Paz4,00368.29%1,57526.87%2965.04%5,874
Maricopa747,36146.45%702,90743.69%158,6079.86%1,608,875
Mohave58,28273.67%17,45522.06%3,6074.55%79,344
Navajo20,57752.56%16,45942.04%2,6096.58%39,645
Pima167,42840.45%224,66154.28%24,2975.84%416,386
Pinal72,81957.25%47,89237.65%7,5245.87%128,235
Santa Cruz3,89724.45%11,69071.58%7004.30%16,287
Yavapai71,33063.40%35,59031.63%6,2245.50%113,144
Yuma25,16548.12%24,60547.05%2,6415.04%52,411

By congressional district

Trump won 5 of 9 congressional districts, including one represented by a Democrat. Clinton also carried a district represented by a Republican.[19]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 48% 47% Ann Kirkpatrick
Tom O'Halleran
2nd 44% 49% Martha McSally
3rd 32% 62% Raúl Grijalva
4th 66% 27% Paul Gosar
5th 56% 36% Matt Salmon
Andy Biggs
6th 52% 42% David Schweikert
7th 22% 71% Ruben Gallego
8th 57% 36% Trent Franks
9th 38% 54% Kyrsten Sinema

Turnout

Voter Turnout was 74.17% with 2,661,497 ballots cast out of 3,588,466 voters.[20]

Analysis

Donald Trump won Arizona with a margin of 3.5%, a reduced margin from Mitt Romney's 9.03% margin in 2012.[21] Arizona was among the eleven states in which Hillary Clinton outperformed Barack Obama's margin in 2012,[22] primarily due to an increase in Hispanic voter turnout in southern Arizona, including heavily populated Maricopa County. Maricopa County in particular went from a 10.69% margin of victory for Romney in 2012 to a 2.84% margin of victory for Trump—one of only three times that a Democrat has come closer to carrying the county since 1964. Indeed, the only closer margin since that time came in 1996, when Bill Clinton won it by 2.2%.

Clinton also came close to winning Yuma County, and would have been the first Democrat to do so since the county was separated from La Paz County in the 1980s. Other rural counties that had been won by Bill Clinton in the 1990s continued to trend in a Republican direction.

In terms of percentage of the vote, Trump's strongest support was in the northwest of the state whereas Clinton did best in the southern-central region.

Electors

Arizona had 11 electors in 2016. All of them voted for Donald Trump for president and Mike Pence for vice president.

The electors were

  • Bruce Ash
  • Walter Begay
  • Sharon Giese
  • Robert Graham
  • Alberto Gutier
  • Jerry Hayden
  • Carole Joyce
  • Jane Pierpoint Lynch
  • J. Foster Morgan
  • James O'Connor
  • Edward Robson

See also

References
  1. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Archived from the original on November 23, 2020. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
  2. Hobbs, Katie. "Arizona Secretary of State 2012 Election Information". Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved November 6, 2020.
  3. "Democratic Party Candidates - Presidential Preference Election 2016". azsos.gov. Secretary of State of Arizona. Archived from the original on September 9, 2016. Retrieved September 15, 2016.
  4. The Green Papers
  5. "2016 Arizona District-Level Delegate Math" (PDF). Arizona Democratic Party. April 5, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 18, 2016. Retrieved April 8, 2016.
  6. "Republican Party Candidates - Presidential Preference Election 2016 | Arizona Secretary of State". Azsos.gov. March 7, 2015. Archived from the original on December 3, 2016. Retrieved December 1, 2016.
  7. "Arizona Green Party Presidential Primary Results". Ballot Access News. March 23, 2016. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
  8. "Two Candidates Qualify for Arizona Green Party Presidential Primary; Six Qualify for Democratic Primary". Ballot Access News. December 14, 2015. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
  9. "Unofficial 2016 Presidential Preference Election Results". azsos.gov. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
  10. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton-5832.html#polls
  11. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  12. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  13. "Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com". Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  14. Todd, Chuck. "NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead". NBC News. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  15. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  16. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  17. "The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election". Abcnews.go.com. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  18. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2016&fips=4&f=0&off=0&elect=0&minper=0
  19. https://www.cookpolitical.com/introducing-2017-cook-political-report-partisan-voter-index
  20. "Arizona Secretary of State Election Night Reporting". Results.arizona.vote. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
  21. "Arizona Election Results 2016". The New York Times. Retrieved November 10, 2016.
  22. http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2016&def=swg&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0
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