Opinion polling for the 44th Canadian federal election

This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted from the 2019 Canadian federal election leading up to the 44th Canadian federal election, scheduled to take place on or before October 16, 2023.[1]

Pre-campaign period
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 44th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
Polling firm Last date
of polling[1]		 Link CPC LPC NDP BQ GPC PPC Other[2] Margin
of error[3]		 Sample
size[4]		 Polling method[5] Lead
Abacus DataFebruary 3, 2021HTML3132188721±1.6 pp3,930online1
LegerJanuary 31, 2021PDF28372275N/A2±2.48 pp1,559online9
Campaign ResearchJanuary 30, 2021HTML30341968N/A3±2 pp2,413online4
EKOSJanuary 27, 2021HTML30.934.315.05.77.73.72.7±0.8 pp13,730IVR3.4
Angus ReidJanuary 24, 2021PDF30352065N/A4±2.5 pp1,559online5
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 20, 2021HTML31.939.314.45.25.22.41.6±1.8 pp3,132IVR7.4
LegerJanuary 17, 2021PDF29362176N/A2±2.53 pp1,516online7
Abacus DataJanuary 12, 2021HTML3135178611±2.2 pp2,000online4
IpsosJanuary 6, 2021HTML29361968N/A2±3.5 pp1,000online7
LegerJanuary 3, 2021PDF30352076N/A2±2.53 pp1,506online5
PollaraDecember 23, 2020PDF29381876N/AN/A±2.8 pp1,200online9
Abacus DataDecember 18, 2020HTML32351777N/AN/A±2.1 pp2,200online3
Mainstreet ResearchDecember 17, 2020PDF33.237.913.14.96.72.31.9±2.7 pp1,286IVR4.7
Research Co.December 14, 2020PDF3137207311±3.1 pp1,000online6
IpsosDecember 14, 2020HTML32351877N/A1±3.5 pp1,000online3
LegerDecember 13, 2020PDF29352375N/A2±2.50 pp1,528online6
Campaign ResearchDecember 3, 2020HTML32351956N/AN/AN/A1,956online3
Angus ReidNovember 30, 2020PDF33341964N/A3±1.4 pp5,003online1
LegerNovember 29, 2020PDF30342077N/A2±2.51 pp1,516online4
Mainstreet ResearchNovember 26, 2020PDF31.739.012.35.16.73.31.9±2.7 pp1,341IVR7.3
EKOSNovember 26, 2020HTML31.335.013.96.96.83.82.3±1.4 pp5,240IVR3.7
Delphi PollingNovember 25, 2020HTML3238166611N/A1,000online6
Abacus DataNovember 24, 2020HTML3036167532±1.85 pp2,912online6
IpsosNovember 23, 2020HTML31361787N/A1±3.5 pp1,001online5
LegerNovember 15, 2020PDF31351886N/A2±2.51 pp1,522online4
Abacus DataNovember 12, 2020HTML3038158622±2.5 pp1,664online8
Angus ReidNovember 9, 2020PDF33351875N/A2±2.4 pp1,602online2
LegerNovember 8, 2020PDF28362175N/A3±2.50 pp1,534online8
LegerNovember 1, 2020PDF31342176N/A2±2.52 pp1,516online3
IpsosOctober 26, 2020HTML32381767N/A2±3.5 pp1,000online6
LegerOctober 25, 2020PDF30371885N/A2±2.51 pp1,523online7
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 21, 2020HTML34.035.815.05.45.03.41.4±2.7 pp1,328IVR1.8
EKOSOctober 19, 2020Twitter31.435.213.75.78.742±2.6 pp1,416IVR3.8
LegerOctober 18, 2020PDF29361886N/A2±2.52 pp1,512online7
Nanos ResearchOctober 16, 2020Twitter32.538.513.46.07.61.4N/A±3.1 pp1,000 (3/4)telephone (rolling)6.0
LegerOctober 11, 2020PDF29372176N/A1±2.50 pp1,539online8
Innovative ResearchOctober 6, 2020PDF3137166531N/A2,771online6
LegerOctober 4, 2020PDF32362074N/A1±2.51 pp1,523online4
October 3, 2020Annamie Paul is elected leader of the Green Party
IpsosOctober 1, 2020HTML31361876N/A1±3.5 pp1,000online5
Abacus DataSeptember 28, 2020HTML3035176732±2.0 pp2,440online5
LegerSeptember 27, 2020PDF30401785N/A1±2.52 pp1,514online10
Nanos ResearchSeptember 25, 2020Twitter3434N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A±3.1 pp1,000 (1/4)telephone/online (rolling)0
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 24, 2020HTML34.637.115.24.84.62.21.6±2.7 pp1,307IVR2.5
Abacus DataSeptember 21, 2020HTML3235176821±2.6 pp1,500online3
LegerSeptember 20, 2020PDF30351986N/A2±2.50 pp1,538online5
Nanos ResearchSeptember 18, 2020Twitter33.235.017.46.06.1N/A1.5±3.1 pp1,000 (3/4)telephone/online (rolling)1.8
Campaign ResearchSeptember 15, 2020HTML30401567N/A2±2 pp2,389online10
Innovative ResearchSeptember 15, 2020PDF2939176721N/A2,374online10
IpsosSeptember 14, 2020HTML32332068N/A1±3.5 pp1,000online1
Research Co.September 13, 2020PDF3238178311±3.1 pp1,000online6
LegerSeptember 13, 2020PDF31351876N/A3±2.50 pp1,539online4
LegerSeptember 6, 2020PDF32341976N/A1±2.51 pp1,529online2
Abacus DataSeptember 3, 2020HTML3133187732±2.1 pp2,289online2
Angus ReidSeptember 1, 2020PDF35351774N/A2±1.5 pp5,005online0
Innovative ResearchSeptember 1, 2020PDF2838167731N/A2,308online (rolling)10
LegerAugust 30, 2020PDF29352185N/A2±2.51 pp1,521online6
Nanos ResearchAugust 28, 2020Twitter313318N/AN/AN/AN/A±3.1 pp1,000telephone/online (rolling)2
August 24, 2020Erin O'Toole is elected leader of the Conservative Party
LegerAugust 23, 2020PDF30381876N/A2±2.52 pp1,516online8
Abacus DataAugust 19, 2020HTML3036186542±2.6 pp1,500online6
IpsosAugust 18, 2020HTML32351877N/A2±2.5 pp2,000online3
Innovative ResearchAugust 18, 2020PDF2840167631N/A1,934online12
LegerAugust 16, 2020PDF32351886N/A2±2.52 pp1,510online3
Campaign ResearchAugust 13, 2020HTML33301878N/A4±2 pp2,013online3
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 12, 2020HTML28.941.315.65.55.22.11.5±2.5 pp1,594IVR12.4
LegerAugust 9, 2020PDF29361588N/A3±2.52 pp1,513online7
LegerAugust 2, 2020PDF31332086N/A2±2.5 pp1,531online2
Abacus DataJuly 29, 2020HTML3034178623±2.6 pp1,500online4
LegerJuly 26, 2020PDF29352096N/A1±2.52 pp1,517online6
Nanos ResearchJuly 24, 2020Twitter29.933.316.96.99.33.1N/A±3.1 pp1,000telephone/online (rolling)3.4
EKOSJuly 22, 2020HTML30.034.715.26.57.63.52.5±2.5 pp1,505IVR4.7
Innovative ResearchJuly 20, 2020PDF2840147731N/A2,599online12
LegerJuly 19, 2020PDF28391777N/A2±2.51 pp1,524online11
EKOSJuly 16, 2020HTML29.533.218.26.67.62.92.1±3.7 pp694IVR3.7
Abacus DataJuly 16, 2020HTML3136167721±2.6 pp1,500online5
LegerJuly 12, 2020PDF26381987N/A2±2.51 pp1,523online12
LegerJuly 5, 2020PDF25392085N/A2±2.52 pp1,517online14
LegerJune 28, 2020PDF28401776N/A2±2.51 pp1,524online12
Mainstreet ResearchJune 26, 2020PDF27.443.214.15.74.82.91.8±2.7 pp1,283IVR15.8
Nanos ResearchJune 26, 2020Twitter27.038.414.86.59.33.2N/A±3.1 pp1,000telephone/online (rolling)11.4
Innovative ResearchJune 23, 2020PDF27411568N/A3N/A2,115online14
LegerJune 21, 2020PDF28391975N/A2±2.51 pp1,521online11
Abacus DataJune 21, 2020HTML2940167621±1.8 pp2,979online11
EKOSJune 16, 2020HTML29.940.512.75.16.53.51.8±1.8 pp3,006IVR10.6
LegerJune 14, 2020PDF27401677N/A3±2.51 pp1,527online13
Abacus DataJune 11, 2020Twitter29391965N/AN/AN/A1,780online10
LegerJune 7, 2020PDF25461576N/A1±2.51 pp1,523online21
Innovative ResearchJune 1, 2020PDF28421277N/A4N/A2,246online14
LegerMay 31, 2020PDF27401877N/A2±2.50 pp1,536online13
Abacus DataMay 29, 2020Twitter29391577N/AN/AN/A1,800online10
LegerMay 25, 2020PDF27411576N/A2±2.52 pp1,510online14
Angus ReidMay 24, 2020PDF31371775N/A3±1.4 pp5,001online6
LegerMay 17, 2020PDF25441577N/A2±2.52 pp1,513online19
Abacus DataMay 17, 2020HTML31391676N/AN/A±2.3 pp1,800online8
LegerMay 10, 2020PDF28411776N/A1±2.51 pp1,526online13
Mainstreet ResearchMay 7, 2020HTML29.443.311.55.85.93.01.1±2.6 pp1,404IVR13.9
EKOSMay 7, 2020HTML28.342.710.66.76.73.31.7±1.4 pp5,276IVR14.4
Innovative ResearchMay 5, 2020PDF28411367N/A3N/A2,699online13
Research Co.May 3, 2020PDF3039175711±3.1 pp1,000online9
LegerMay 3, 2020PDF25441576N/A2±2.51 pp1,526online19
LegerApril 26, 2020PDF28431476N/A2±2.51 pp1,515online15
Abacus DataApril 24, 2020Twitter30381686N/AN/AN/A2,481online8
LegerApril 19, 2020PDF29421485N/A2±2.53 pp1,504online13
Angus ReidApril 17, 2020PDF33361784N/A3±2.2 pp1,912online3
LegerApril 12, 2020PDF28391868N/A2±2.52 pp1,508online11
Innovative ResearchApril 2, 2020PDF [6]2740158721N/A2,059online13
EKOSMarch 26, 2020HTML28.640.412.28.65.92.22.1±2.0 pp2,304IVR11.8
Mainstreet ResearchMarch 17, 2020HTML32.238.611.18.85.71.71.9±2.4 pp1,665IVR6.4
LegerMarch 2, 2020PDF30322088N/A2±2.50 pp1,540online2
Angus ReidFebruary 28, 2020PDF34262197N/A3±1.4 pp5,043online8
Campaign ResearchFebruary 26, 2020HTML303019811N/A3±2.5 pp1,606online0
Nanos ResearchFebruary 21, 2020HTML36.233.015.46.86.61.4N/A±3.1 pp1,038telephone (rolling)3.2
LegerJanuary 30, 2020PDF32341977N/A1±2.53 pp1,501online2
Nanos ResearchJanuary 24, 2020HTML31.033.816.78.38.90.9N/A±3.1 pp1,000telephone (rolling)2.8
LegerJanuary 21, 2020PDF32311988N/A2±2.49 pp1,552online1
Abacus DataJanuary 17, 2020HTML3034176832±2.5 pp1,500online4
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 17, 2020HTML32.439.810.66.65.42.82.4±2.55 pp1,470IVR7.4
LegerJanuary 7, 2020PDF31341878N/A2±2.49 pp1,554online3
Abacus DataDecember 16, 2019HTML3033187822±2.1 pp1,500online3
Angus ReidDecember 15, 2019PDF33301987N/A3±2.0 pp2,011online3
December 12, 2019Andrew Scheer announces his intention to resign as the leader of the Conservative Party
EKOSDecember 10, 2019PDF29.631.116.85.89.84.22.7±2.0 pp2,339IVR1.5
LegerNovember 25, 2019PDF3032197731±1.78 pp3,040online2
Nanos ResearchNovember 22, 2019HTML30.933.617.2N/A9.2N/AN/A±3.1 pp1,000 (3/4)telephone (rolling)2.7
November 4, 2019Jo-Ann Roberts is named interim leader of the Green Party
Nanos ResearchNovember 1, 2019HTML32.531.1N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A±3.1 pp1,000telephone (rolling)1.4
2019 election[7]October 21, 2019HTML34.333.116.07.66.51.60.91.2

Leadership polls

Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister:

October 2020 – present
Polling firm Last date

of polling

 Link Justin Trudeau Erin O'Toole Jagmeet Singh Yves-François Blanchet Annamie Paul Maxime Bernier Unsure Margin
of error[1]		 Lead
Nanos Research January 1, 2021 PDF 39.3 20.3 13.1 3.2 3.9 2.4 17.7 ±3.1 pp 19.0
Nanos Research December 18, 2020 PDF 38.2 21.1 13.2 3.6 2.2 2.2 19.6 ±3.1 pp 17.1
Research Co. December 14, 2020 PDF 39 22 13 3 2 2 ±3.1 pp 17
Nanos Research December 11, 2020 PDF 37.5 19.7 13.5 3.9 3.2 2.3 19.9 ±3.1 pp 17.8
Nanos Research November 20, 2020 PDF 38.5 20.3 14.5 3.4 1.8 2.0 19.5 ±3.1 pp 18.2
Nanos Research October 30, 2020 PDF 39.0 20.1 12.7 2.8 2.5 1.9 21.0 ±3.1 pp 18.9
Nanos Research October 23, 2020 PDF 37.7 21.6 12.6 2.9 2.7 2.1 20.5 ±3.1 pp 16.1
Nanos Research October 16, 2020 PDF 38.5 23.0 11.1 1.9 2.9 2.5 20.1 ±3.1 pp 15.0
Nanos Research October 9, 2020 PDF 37.1 22.5 11.6 2.8 4.0 2.1 19.7 ±3.1 pp 14.6

August 2020 – October 2020
Polling firm Last date

of polling

 Link Justin Trudeau Erin O'Toole Jagmeet Singh Yves-François Blanchet Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier Unsure Margin
of error[1]		 Lead
Nanos Research September 25, 2020 PDF 35.6 22.8 13.2 3.1 3.3 2.1 19.9 ±3.1 pp 12.8
Nanos Research September 4, 2020 PDF 34.4 20.2 15.2 4.2 4.0 1.5 20.5 ±3.1 pp 14.2

October 2019 – August 2020
Polling firm Last date

of polling

 Link Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer Jagmeet Singh Yves-François Blanchet Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier Unsure Margin
of error[1]		 Lead
Nanos Research August 21, 2020 PDF 33.9 18.6 14.3 4.7 5.4 1.8 21.4 ±3.1 pp 15.3
Innovative ResearchAugust 18, 2020PDF47212265N/A26
Nanos Research August 7, 2020 PDF 32.6 20.7 12.5 5.2 6.7 3.1 19.2 ±3.1 pp 11.9
Nanos Research July 17, 2020 PDF 35.6 19.7 14.9 6.7 6.4 4.1 12.7 ±3.1 pp 15.9
Nanos Research June 26, 2020 PDF 40.2 18.0 13.7 4.7 7.4 2.7 13.2 ±3.1 pp 22.2
Nanos Research June 12, 2020 PDF 39.1 16.9 14.4 5.2 7.3 3.7 13.3 ±3.1 pp 22.2
Nanos Research May 29, 2020 PDF 38.8 15.5 14.4 6.1 5.8 4.8 13.2 ±3.1 pp 23.3
Nanos Research May 15, 2020 PDF 37.5 17.2 14.5 7.0 6.2 4.2 13.2 ±3.1 pp 20.3
Nanos Research May 8, 2020 PDF 38.0 17.0 14.3 7.0 7.5 4.0 12.0 ±3.1 pp 21.0
Nanos Research May 1, 2020 PDF 37.1 17.8 15.5 6.7 7.6 3.9 11.5 ±3.1 pp 19.3
Nanos Research April 24, 2020 PDF 38.0 17.3 15.7 6.6 7.0 4.3 11.2 ±3.1 pp 20.7
Nanos Research April 17, 2020 PDF 37.4 16.3 15.5 6.2 6.2 3.7 14.8 ±3.1 pp 21.1
Nanos Research April 10, 2020 PDF 37.6 17.1 15.2 5.7 4.8 1.1 16.5 ±3.1 pp 20.5
Nanos Research April 3, 2020 PDF 35.4 17.8 14.1 5.4 5.4 2.1 19.8 ±3.1 pp 17.6
Nanos Research March 27, 2020 PDF 31.9 19.7 13.2 4.3 5.8 1.8 23.3 ±3.1 pp 12.2
Nanos Research March 20, 2020 PDF 30.7 21.4 12.8 3.8 6.2 2.2 22.9 ±3.1 pp 9.3
Nanos Research March 13, 2020 PDF 32.3 19.2 12.2 3.8 6.9 2.5 23.1 ±3.1 pp 13.1
Nanos Research March 6, 2020 PDF 32.6 20.6 12.3 3.8 6.1 2.1 22.6 ±3.1 pp 12.0
Nanos Research February 28, 2020 PDF 31.9 19.7 13.2 4.3 5.8 1.1 23.3 ±3.1 pp 12.2
Nanos Research February 14, 2020 PDF 34.0 21.0 12.4 3.4 5.3 1.5 22.3 ±3.1 pp 13.0
Nanos Research February 7, 2020 PDF 34.5 20.6 12.9 4.2 4.9 1.8 21.2 ±3.1 pp 13.9
Nanos Research January 31, 2020 PDF 33.3 20.1 13.2 5.1 5.1 2.2 21.0 ±3.1 pp 13.2
Nanos Research January 24, 2020 PDF 33.3 19.8 13.4 4.8 6.1 1.9 20.6 ±3.1 pp 13.5
Nanos Research January 17, 2020 PDF 32.8 19.6 13.0 4.9 6.2 2.5 21.1 ±3.1 pp 13.2
Nanos Research January 10, 2020 PDF 31.0 20.9 14.4 4.2 6.8 2.0 20.7 ±3.1 pp 10.1
Nanos Research January 3, 2020 PDF 32.2 21.1 15.1 3.3 6.4 1.7 20.1 ±3.1 pp 11.1
Nanos Research December 27, 2019 PDF 34.4 21.1 14.4 3.1 5.3 2.2 19.4 ±3.1 pp 13.3
Nanos Research December 20, 2019 PDF 36.0 21.0 15.9 2.8 6.4 1.7 16.2 ±3.1 pp 15.0
Nanos Research December 13, 2019 PDF 35.8 21.9 16.1 2.6 7.0 1.5 15.3 ±3.1 pp 13.9
Nanos Research December 6, 2019 PDF 36.6 22.0 15.4 3.1 7.0 1.4 14.6 ±3.1 pp 14.6
Nanos Research November 29, 2019 PDF 38.2 21.5 15.1 2.7 7.4 1.1 14.0 ±3.1 pp 16.7
Nanos Research November 22, 2019 PDF 35.1 22.0 15.4 3.1 7.0 2.1 15.3 ±3.1 pp 13.1
Nanos Research November 15, 2019 PDF 32.3 23.9 17.8 3.9 5.8 1.8 13.5 ±3.1 pp 8.4
Nanos Research November 8, 2019 PDF 31.1 24.9 19.0 3.4 6.2 2.0 13.5 ±3.1 pp 6.2
Nanos Research November 1, 2019 PDF 30.0 27.0 17.3 3.4 7.2 1.6 13.6 ±3.1 pp 3.0

See also

Notes
1 Polls that share the same last date of polling are ordered from earliest (below) to latest (above) first date of polling. Polls that have identical field dates are placed in the order in which they were released/published (earliest below, latest above).
2 Support for other parties may include the People's Party of Canada depending on the poll.
3 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
4 Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
5 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.
6 Percent voting intentions given in the report have been adjusted to reflect only decided/leaning voters for consistency among poll results in the table.
7 Party columns are ordered from largest to smallest share of the popular vote in the 2019 election, not according to the number of seats won.

    References
    1. "The battle to keep this country together will be harder in some provinces than others". Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. October 27, 2019.
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