2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the two U.S. Representatives from the state of Maine, one from each of the state's two congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other offices, including a gubernatorial election, other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.

2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine
November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)
All 2 Maine seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election 1 1
Seats won 2 0
Seat change 1 1
Popular vote 343,635 250,119
Percentage 55.12% 40.12%
Swing 3.19% 7.89%

These U.S. House elections were conducted with ranked-choice voting, as opposed to a simple plurality, after Maine voters passed a citizen referendum approving the change in 2016[1] and a June 2018 referendum sustaining the change.[2] Ranked-choice voting was used in the primary elections as well.[3]

While Rep. Chellie Pingree in District 1 was reelected with a majority, no candidate received a majority in District 2, which meant that the ranked-choice tabulation needed to occur. Rep. Bruce Poliquin, who received a plurality of first-round votes, filed a federal lawsuit to halt that tabulation, arguing that ranked-choice voting was unconstitutional. The court ruled against Poliquin in his request for a motion on November 15 and against the lawsuit itself on December 13. On November 15, Jared Golden was declared the winner after the ranked-choice redistribution, becoming the first member of Congress to be elected via ranked-choice voting.

Overview

Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine by district:[4]

District Democratic Republican Others Total Result
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1201,19558.82%111,18832.51%29,6708.67%342,053100.0%Democratic Hold
District 2142,44050.62%138,93149.38%00.00%281,371100.0%Democratic Gain
Total343,63555.12%250,11940.12%29,6704.76%623,424100.0%
Elections in Maine
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Mayoral elections

District 1
See also: Maine's 1st congressional district

Chellie Pingree, the incumbent representative, was first elected in 2008, and in 2016 defeated Republican nominee Mark Holbrook with just under 58 percent of the vote. Holbrook ran again for the Republican nomination, and was unopposed. Independent State Representative Marty Grohman, elected as a Democrat in the 2016 State House election, defected from the party in 2017. He launched his campaign for the first district in spring 2018.

Due to the use of ranked-choice voting in the election, Pingree was considered to be vulnerable if she did not win outright in the first round, as Grohman could have been a second choice for Republican and Democratic voters.[5] Grohman was receiving substantial support from Republican elected officials and activists, including Republican Governor Paul LePage[6] and the State Director of President Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign Christie-Lee McNally.[7]

Declared

Results
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Chellie Pingree (incumbent) 74,376 100.0
Total votes 74,376 100.0

Declared
  • Mark Holbrook, professional counselor and 2016 nominee for this seat[9]

Results
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mark Holbrook 40,679 100.0
Total votes 40,679 100.0

Declared
  • Marty Grohman, state representative[9]

Endorsements
Chellie Pingree
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations
Trade Unions
Media
Mark Holbrook
Individuals
Organizations
Marty Grohman
Local and statewide politicians
Other individuals
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Chellie
Pingree (D)		 Mark
Holbrook (R)		 Marty
Grohman (I)		 Other Undecided
Emerson College October 27–29, 2018 442 ± 4.9% 56% 31% – 7% 6%
Pan Atlantic Research October 1–7, 2018 249 – 53% 29% 11% – 7%

Results
Maine's 1st congressional district, 2018[23]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Chellie Pingree (incumbent) 201,195 58.8
Republican Mark Holbrook 111,188 32.5
Independent Marty Grohman 29,670 8.7
Total votes 342,053 100.0
Democratic hold

District 2
See also: Maine's 2nd congressional district

Bruce Poliquin, the incumbent representative for the second district, defeated Democrat Emily Cain in the 2016 election in a rematch of the 2014 election where Poliquin was first elected. Poliquin ran for the Republican nomination unopposed. Cain did not challenge Poliquin again, instead taking a job with the progressive group Emily's List. Initially, six candidates filed for the Democratic nomination — United States Postal Service employee and activist Phil Cleaves, carpenter and former Maine State Senate candidate Jonathan Fulford, Assistant Majority Leader of the State House of Representatives Jared Golden, shopkeeper and former chair of the Isleboro Board of Selectmen Craig Olson, businessman and former State Senate candidate Tim Rich, and conservationist Lucas St. Clair. Cleaves, Rich and Fulford dropped out at various points in the campaign, though Fulford's withdrawal happened too late for his name to be removed from the primary ballot. Several candidates received prominent endorsements; St. Clair was endorsed by the League of Conservation Voters and California Congressman Jared Huffman, Fulford by the left-wing group Our Revolution prior to his withdrawal from the race, and Golden by VoteVets, Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton and over two dozen members of the Maine Legislature. Golden defeated St. Clair and Olson in the second round of the ranked-choice vote tabulation.

In addition, two third-party candidates announced their candidacies for the seat: Houlton Band of Maliseets State Representative Henry John Bear of the Maine Green Independent Party and Brian Kresge of the Libertarian Party. Bear, a former Democrat, left the party due to its stance on water rights for Maine's native people. He failed to qualify for the ballot. Kresge, a veteran and writer, withdrew from the race to run for a seat in the State House of Representatives. Neither the Libertarians nor Green Independents had a candidate on the ballot.

Two independent candidates qualified for the ballot: Tiffany Bond, an attorney from Portland (a city outside of the second district), and Will Hoar, a schoolteacher.

Declared
Withdrawn
Declined

Endorsements
Jonathan Fulford (withdrawn)
Individuals
  • Ben Chin, Democratic nominee for Mayor of Lewiston, 2015 and 2017[28]
Organizations
Jared Golden
State and local politicians
Other individuals
Local Democratic organizations
National organizations
Local and statewide organizations
  • Maine People's Alliance[41]
Trade Unions
Lucas St. Clair
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 RCV
round		 Jonathan
Fulford		 Jared
Golden		 Craig
Olson		 Lucas
St. Clair		 Other Undecided
Survey USA (with RCV) April 26-May 1, 2018 217 LV ± 7.2% Round 1 17% 22% 5% 25% - 31%
Round 2 27% 35% - 38% -
Round 3 - 49% - 51% -
Global Strategy Group October 2–5, 2017 300 ± 5.7% N/A - 8% - 40% 7% 45%

Fundraising

(Through March 31, 2017)[48]

  • Jared Golden: $618,380.33
  • Lucas St. Clair: $424,958.42
  • Jonathan Fulford (withdrawn): $166,989.79
  • Craig Olson: $100,299.00
  • Tim Rich (withdrawn): $72,197.20
  • Emily Cain (not running): $24,692.88

Results
Democratic primary results[49]
Party Candidate Round 1 Round 3
Votes % Transfer Votes % (gross) % (net)
Democratic Jared Golden 20,987 46.4% +2,624 23,611 52.2% 54.3%
Democratic Lucas St. Clair 17,742 39.2% +2,111 19,853 43.9% 45.7%
Democratic Craig Olson 3,993 8.8% -3,993 Eliminated
Democratic Jonathan Fulford 2,489 5.5% -2,489 Eliminated
Total active votes 45,211 100% 43,464 100.0%
Exhausted ballots - +1,747 1,747 3.9%
Total votes 45,211 100% 45,211 100.0%

% (gross) = percent of all valid votes cast (without eliminating the exhausted votes)
% (net) = percent of votes cast after eliminating the exhausted votes

Declared

Results
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bruce Poliquin (incumbent) 43,047 83.9
Total votes 43,047 100.0

Failed to make the ballot

Withdrawn

Independent candidates
  • Tiffany Bond, attorney[52]
  • Will Hoar, schoolteacher[52]

General election

All candidates except for Poliquin said they would abide by the results of ranked-choice voting and make second and third choices when they vote. Poliquin said he would only cast a first-round vote for himself, stating that he felt no one but him is qualified for the seat.[53]

Though Poliquin led in the first round of vote tabulation by 2,171 votes, he did not have a majority of the votes, initiating the ranked-choice tabulation process. Poliquin filed a lawsuit in federal court on November 13, seeking an order to halt the second-round tabulation of ballots and declare ranked-choice voting unconstitutional.[54] Poliquin's request for an injunction to halt the ranked-choice voting process was rejected, shortly before Matthew Dunlap, the Maine Secretary of State, announced Golden as the winner by 3,509 votes after votes for independent candidates Tiffany Bond and Will Hoar were eliminated and ballots with these votes had their second- or third-choice votes counted.[55] Poliquin requested a recount of the ballots just before the deadline of November 26.[56] After several days of counting with the result not being significantly changed, Poliquin ended the recount after incurring $15,000 in fees.[57] Poliquin also stated that his lawsuit would continue[58] and asked Judge Lance Walker, the federal judge hearing his lawsuit, to order a new election be held should he decline to hold ranked-choice voting unconstitutional.[59] Judge Walker ruled against Poliquin on the merits on December 13, rejecting all of his arguments.[60] Poliquin appealed to the Court of Appeals in Boston and requested an order to prevent Golden from being certified as the winner, but that request was rejected.[57] On December 24, Poliquin dropped his lawsuit, allowing Golden to take the seat.[61][62][63][64] As a result, Poliquin became the first incumbent to lose the 2nd Congressional District since 1916, whereas Golden became the first member of Congress to be elected via ranked-choice voting.

Gov. Paul LePage, as one of his last acts in office, reluctantly initialed the certificate of election for Golden, adding the words "stolen election" to it to express his opposition to ranked-choice voting.[65]

Endorsements
Jared Golden
National politicians
Local and statewide politicians
Individuals
Trade unions
Organizations
Media
Bruce Poliquin
National politicians
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 RCV
round		 Bruce
Poliquin
(R)		 Jared
Golden
(D)		 Tiffany
Bond
(I)		 Will
Hoar
(I)		 Other Undecided
Emerson College October 27–29, 2018 441 ± 4.9% – 46% 47% – – 3% 4%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 15–18, 2018 501 ± 4.8% – 41% 41% – – – 15%
Global Strategy Group (D) October 9–12, 2018 400 ± 4.9% – 42% 48% – – – 10%
Pan Atlantic Research October 1–7, 2018 251 – – 37% 37% 6% 3% – 17%
NYT Upshot/Siena College September 12–14, 2018 506 ± 4.8% – 47% 42% – – – 11%
The Mellman Group (D-Golden) September 4–7, 2018 – ± 4.9% – 46% 54% – – – –
The Mellman Group (D-Golden) July 25–30, 2018 400 ± 4.9% Round 1 40% 39% 3% 1% – 16%
Round 2 48% 48% 4% – – –
Round 3 49% 51% – – –

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[82] Tossup October 3, 2018
Inside Elections[83] Tossup September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[84] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[85] Tossup September 28, 2018
Fox News[86] Tossup September 21, 2018
CNN[87] Tossup October 2, 2018
RealClearPolitics[88] Tossup September 21, 2018
The New York Times[89] Tossup September 26, 2018
Politico[90] Tossup September 21, 2018

Results
Maine's 2nd congressional district, 2018 results[91]
Party Candidate Round 1 Round 2
Votes % Transfer Votes % (gross) % (net)
Democratic Jared Golden 132,013 45.6% + 10,427 142,440 49.18%50.62%
Republican Bruce Poliquin (incumbent) 134,184 46.3% + 4,747 138,931 47.97%49.38%
Independent Tiffany Bond 16,552 5.7% - 16,552 Eliminated
Independent Will Hoar 6,875 2.4% - 6,875 Eliminated
Total active votes 289,624 100%
281,371 100%
Exhausted ballots - +8,253 8,2532.85%
Total votes 289,624 100%
289,624 100%

% (gross) = percent of all valid votes cast (without eliminating the exhausted votes)
% (net) = percent of votes cast after eliminating the exhausted votes

Poliquin led on first preferences with 46.4% to Golden's 45.6% and 8.1% for the two independents. However, as no candidate had a majority of the votes, the votes cast for the two independents were redistributed between Poliquin and Golden (those that didn't give a preference for either of the candidates were exhausted) and Golden won the election. The reason both independents were eliminated in a single round, as opposed to only the 4th place candidate, was because of the mathematical impossibility of the 3rd place candidate moving into 2nd place even if they had received all of the 4th place candidate's redistributed votes.

Of the votes left in the count, Golden won with 50.62% of the vote to Poliquin's 49.38%. Including exhausted votes, the final count was Golden 49.2%, Poliquin 48.0%, and 2.8% exhausted.

The votes for the two independents were redistributed as follows: 44.5% went to Golden, 20.3% went to Poliquin, and 35.2% were exhausted votes (i.e., they didn't give a preference to either of the remaining candidates).

See also

References
  1. "Maine became the first state in the country Tuesday to pass ranked choice voting". Boston Globe. 10 November 2016. Retrieved 17 November 2016.
  2. "Maine Voters Overrule Their Leaders". The Atlantic. 15 June 2018. Retrieved 24 June 2018.
  3. "Ranked-choice voting fans hope Maine's experiment pays off". 21 June 2018. Archived from the original on 25 June 2018. Retrieved 24 June 2018.
  4. Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Retrieved April 27, 2019.
  5. Scott Thistle (May 29, 2018). "State lawmaker submits enough signatures to challenge Rep. Pingree". Portland Press Herald. Retrieved August 30, 2018.
  6. "Maine GOP Governor Backs Independent In Congressional Race". MPBN. June 20, 2018. Retrieved June 20, 2018.
  7. "Massive Group of ME Republican Leaders Endorse Marty Grohman for Congress". MartyGrohman.com. September 12, 2018. Archived from the original on September 16, 2018. Retrieved September 16, 2018.
  8. Scott Thistle (December 19, 2017). "Pingree says she won't run for governor in 2018". Portland Press Herald. Retrieved December 19, 2017.
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  11. 2018 Convention Speech: Senate Democratic Leader Troy Jackson.
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  23. https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/results/2018/rep-cd1-11-6-18.xlsx
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  26. Roll Call Staff (August 25, 2017). "At the Races: As Goes Maine, So Goes ..." Roll Call. Retrieved October 12, 2017.
  27. Bukaty, Robert (October 2, 2017). "Lucas St. Clair Says He's Running for Congress, Shaking Up Democratic Primary Field". MPBN. Retrieved October 2, 2017.
  28. http://www.sunjournal.com/democratic-2nd-district-congressional-race-heats-up/
  29. Cousins, Christopher (July 19, 2017). "Third Democrat jumps into race to oust Bruce Poliquin". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved July 20, 2017.
  30. Pat Callaghan [@PatCallaghan6] (April 30, 2018). "One of the Dems running in CD-2 has quit the race. Release from Jonathan Fulford campaign says "Today, I suspended my campaign for personal reasons. I regret the necessity and will not be taking questions at this time." #mepolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  31. http://www.sunjournal.com/congressional-contender-tim-rich-alleges-rigged-game-in-democratic-primary/
  32. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2018-02-09. Retrieved 2018-02-08.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  33. @ourrevolution (April 29, 2018). "We're proud to endorse @fulfordformaine to represent the people of Maine's 2nd district. Jonathan will fight to get big money out of politics and to make sure corporations pay their fair share in taxes. ourrev.us/jonathan-fulfo…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  34. https://jaredgoldenforcongress.com/endorsements/
  35. Gideon, Sara (March 8, 2018). "Sara Gideon: Why I support Jared Golden". Kennebec Journal & Morning Sentinel. Retrieved March 12, 2018.
  36. Amy Fried [@ASFried] (May 24, 2018). "Am endorsing Golden for the nomination He's accomplished the most and done so in a divided legislature with a GOP governor, and did so after serving his country in the military and working in DC for a U.S. senator. All the Dems have better policies than Poliquin. #mepolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  37. Bradner, Eric (November 30, 2017). "Rep. Seth Moulton's plan to overhaul House Democrats with a 'new generation of leaders'". CNN. Retrieved December 4, 2017.
  38. https://www.facebook.com/notes/lewiston-democratic-party/lewiston-democratic-party-unanimously-votes-to-endorse-jared-golden-for-congress/10155268669178369/
  39. https://twitter.com/golden4congress/status/913801719699660805
  40. Progressive Caucus [@electprogress] (June 4, 2018). "Jared Golden in #ME02 @golden4congress" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  41. "Maine People's Alliance endorses Jared Golden in 'high stakes' CD-2 race". Beacon. 7 June 2018. Retrieved 4 February 2021.
  42. Jared Golden [@golden4congress] (May 9, 2018). "Proud to be .@MEAFLCIO endorsed! #labor #unions #Democrats" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  43. @NationalNurses (May 18, 2018). "NNU is proud to endorse Jared Golden @golden4congress for Congress in ME-02. Nurses are on #TeamGolden because Jared stands with labor and will work for #MedicareForAll!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  44. Anthony Emerson [@AnthonyEmerso14] (June 12, 2018). "At the 11th hour, @JaredHuffman endorses @Lucasstclair #mepolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  45. Shepherd, Michael (November 30, 2017). "Dropouts, straw polls hint at who to take seriously in crowded Maine governor's race". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved February 27, 2018.
  46. Auster, Craig (January 29, 2018). "LCV ACTION FUND ENDORSES LUCAS ST. CLAIR FOR CONGRESS". LCV.org. Retrieved April 25, 2018.
  47. "St. Clair's monument work gives him edge in 2nd District Democratic primary". Bangor Daily News. May 24, 2018. Retrieved May 24, 2018.
  48. https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/ME/02/2018/
  49. https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/results/results18.html#nonrank
  50. http://www.sunjournal.com/bruce-poliquin-has-almost-2-million-in-campaign-cash-far-more-than-opponents/
  51. http://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/upcoming/index.html
  52. @TiffanyBond (June 21, 2018). "#mepolitics, Our #ME02 ballot is set. @tiffanybond @RepPoliquin @golden4congress @willhoar I look forward to competition that brings out the best in us. Pick the person who will make functional, humane law for rural Maine. Gentlemen, be kind and wise in your campaigns" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  53. Collins, Steve (October 23, 2018). "Poliquin indicates he might challenge ranked-choice results if he doesn't win". Kennebec Journal. Retrieved October 22, 2018.
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  60. Collins, Steve; Journal, Sun (2018-12-13). "Federal court rules against Bruce Poliquin's challenge of ranked-choice voting". Lewiston Sun Journal. Retrieved 2018-12-19.
  61. Murphy, Edward (2018-12-24). "Poliquin drops challenge to ranked-choice voting, clearing way for Golden to take seat in Congress". The Portland Press Herald. Retrieved 2018-12-25.
  62. "Poliquin ends ranked-choice voting lawsuit". WMTW News 8. 2018-12-24. Retrieved 2018-12-25.
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  65. Mistler, Steve (2018-12-29). "LePage Begrudgingly Certifies Results Of 2nd Congressional District Race". MPBN. Retrieved 2018-12-29.
  66. Jared Golden [@golden4congress] (October 17, 2018). "I am honored to receive the endorsement of Vice President Joe Biden #ME02 #mepolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  67. Noel Gallagher (October 1, 2018). "Obama endorses Democrat Jared Golden in bid to unseat Poliquin in 2nd District". Portland Press Herald. Retrieved October 28, 2018.
  68. Brian Schatz. "I'm giving to @golden4congress please feel free to join me and send help too. Thank you". Twitter.
  69. Fried, Amy [@ASFried] (August 20, 2018). "I didn't know that GOP Sen. Saviello is backing Golden. Perhaps they'll be a Republicans for Golden group. #mepolitics www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-look-to-flip-new-englands-one-gop-house-seat-1534757401 …" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  70. Kamp, Jon (August 20, 2018). "Democrats Look to Flip New England's One GOP House Seat". The Wall Street Journal. Archived from the original on August 20, 2018. Retrieved August 20, 2018.
  71. King, Stephen [@StephenKing] (August 19, 2018). "youtu.be/SVKcHMCh1EQ This is the guy running in Maine's 2nd district against NRA sweetheart Bruce Poliquin" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  72. Emerson, Anthony [@AnthonyEmerso14] (November 5, 2018). "Jed Bartlet himself, Martin Sheen, is backing @golden4congress #MEPolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  73. "LCV Action Fund Endorses Jared Golden for Congress". League of Conservation Voters. August 29, 2018.
  74. "Jared Golden - Candidate Profile - MoveOn.org". MoveOn.org.
  75. "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements".
  76. "Golden Will Represent 2nd District's Interests, Not a "Radical" Agenda". October 18, 2018.
  77. Trump, Donald [@realDonaldTrump] (October 25, 2018). ".@BrucePoliquin from Maine is a great Congressman. He is in a tough fight against a very liberal Nancy Pelosi Democrat. Bruce has helped bring JOBS back to his State and totally protects your Great Second Amendment. We need to keep Bruce in Washington. He has my Full Endorsement!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  78. Collins, Steve [@SteveCollinsSJ] (August 28, 2018). "The @USChamber is weighing in with a new tv ad touting @RepPoliquin for his fight against tariffs that it says would hurt Maine exporters. Watch it here: youtu.be/3EvFzBAEonQ #mepolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  80. Bruce Poliquin. "JUST IN: The Sportsman's Alliance of Maine recognizes my hard work on behalf of Maine's sportsmen and women. I have long fought for Maine's strong traditional outdoor heritage and I will continue to do so as our Congressman. I appreciate their endorsement and support. #mepolitics". Twitter.
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Official campaign websites for first district candidates
Official campaign websites for second district candidates
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