2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota
The 2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Dakota, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, as well as other federal, state and local elections in North Dakota.
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| Turnout | 56.27% | ||||||||||||||||
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 County results Cramer: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Heitkamp: 50–60% 60–70% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in North Dakota |
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Incumbent Democratic-NPL Senator Heidi Heitkamp ran for reelection to a second term.[1] The candidate filing deadline was April 9, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 12, 2018.[2] U.S. Representative Kevin Cramer won the Republican primary to challenge Heitkamp, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.
On November 6, 2018, Cramer defeated Heitkamp in the general election, becoming the first Republican to hold this seat since 1960, and the first person since 1916 to be elected to the seat without an NPL affiliation.[3] This also marked the first time since 1916 in which North Dakota directly elected Republicans to both of its seats in the United States Senate, giving North Dakota an all GOP congressional delegation for the first time since 1959.
Background
Many observers cited Heitkamp as a vulnerable incumbent Democrat in 2018, as she balanced cooperation with her Democratic colleagues in the U.S. Senate with pleasing her constituents in deeply Republican North Dakota; Donald Trump won in North Dakota by about 36 points.[4] The race was expected to be extremely competitive and some projected it would be the most expensive race in North Dakota history.[5]
Voter ID law and Native Americans disenfranchisement
On October 9, 2018, the Supreme Court of the United States upheld North Dakota's voter ID law, called HB 1369. This law requires voters to use an ID which lists a street address, and doesn't allow PO boxes as valid addresses. However, many Native American reservations don't use a conventional address system and their inhabitants tend to use PO boxes instead, making a large share of the IDs used by Native Americans invalid. Although both Natives and non-Natives are affected, Native Americans are disproportionately more likely to be affected by HB 1369, and the law has been criticized for disenfranchising Native Americans.
The Republican-held state government of North Dakota argued that the law was created to prevent voter fraud, but has been accused of passing the law because Native Americans are likely to vote Democratic. HB 1369 had previously been found to be invalid by the Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, for which reason it didn't affect the primary elections earlier in 2018, but the Supreme Court decision meant that many people didn't have the right ID and were ineligible to vote in the general election.[6][7][8][9]
Democratic-NPL primary
The Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16 and 17, during which delegates voted to endorse Heitkamp for re-election. Although general election ballot access is actually controlled by a primary election, challenger Dustin Peyer did not challenge Heitkamp in the June 2018 primary.[10]
Declared
- Heidi Heitkamp, incumbent U.S. Senator[1]
Withdrew
- Dustin Peyer, firefighter and candidate for the state senate in 2016[10]
Endorsements
Heidi Heitkamp
- Federal officials
- Joe Biden, former Vice President[11]
- Chuck Hagel, former Secretary of Defense (Republican)[12]
- Tom Vilsack, former Secretary of Agriculture and Governor of Iowa[13]
- Mary Wakefield, former Acting Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services[14]
- Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Senator (D-NY)[15]
- Kent Conrad, former U.S. Senator (D-ND)[16]
- Byron Dorgan, former U.S. Senator (D-ND)[17]
- Earl Pomeroy, former U.S. congressman (D-ND)[18]
- Local officials
- Michael Brown, Mayor of Grand Forks[19]
- Tim McLean, Casselton Fire Chief[20]
- Arland Rasmussen, former West Fargo police chief[21]
- Individuals
- Amy Schumer, actress[22]
- Amy Siskind, activist and writer[23]
- Grace Link, Former First Lady of North Dakota[24]
- Organizations
- American Federation of Government Employees[25]
- End Citizens United[26]
- Feminist Majority Political Action Committee[27]
- J Street[28]
- Los Angeles Women's Collective [29]
- National Association of Home Builders[30]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[31]
- National Education Association[32]
- National Farmers Union PAC[33]
- North Dakota AFL-CIO[34]
- North Dakota United[35]
- National Border Patrol Council[36]
- Newspapers
Results
Results by county:
Heitkamp—100%
Heitkamp—≥90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic-NPL | Heidi Heitkamp (incumbent) | 36,729 | 99.58% | |
| Democratic-NPL | Write-ins | 152 | 0.42% | |
| Total votes | 36,883 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Declared
- Kevin Cramer, U.S. Representative[39]
- Thomas O'Neill, former mayor of Niagara[40]
Withdrew
- Tom Campbell, state senator[41][42] (endorsed Kevin Cramer)[43]
- Gary Emineth, businessman and former chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party[44]
- Paul Schaffner[45]
Declined
- Rick Becker, state representative and candidate for governor in 2016[46]
- Rick Berg, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012[47][48]
- Tammy Miller, businesswoman[49][48]
- Kathy Neset, member of the North Dakota State Board of Higher Education[50][48]
- Ed Schafer, former United States Secretary of Agriculture and former governor of North Dakota[51]
- Kelly Schmidt, North Dakota State Treasurer[52][48]
- Wayne Stenehjem, North Dakota Attorney General and candidate for governor in 2016[51]
Endorsements
Kevin Cramer
- Presidents of the United States
- George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States[53]
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[54][55]
- U.S. Vice Presidents
- Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States[56]
- U.S. Senators
- John Hoeven, North Dakota[57]
- David Perdue, Georgia[58]
- Ben Sasse, Nebraska[59]
- U.S. Governors
- Doug Burgum, North Dakota[60]
- N.D State Legislature
- Tom Campbell, state senator[43]
- Individuals
- Kimberly Guilfoyle, American television news personality[61]
- Clinton Romesha, Medal of Honor recipient[62]
- Organizations
- American Conservative Union[63]
- Family Policy Alliance of North Dakota[64]
- National Federation of Independent Business[65]
- National Right to Life[66]
- North Dakota Farm Bureau[67]
- North Dakota Right to Life[66]
- Republican Jewish Coalition[68]
- Susan B. Anthony List[69]
- National Rifle Association[70]
- National Organization for Marriage[71]
- Newspapers
Tom Campbell (withdrawn)
- State Senators
- Howard C. Anderson Jr.[74]
- Bill Bowman[74]
- Randy Burckhard[74]
- David Clemens[74]
- Dick Dever[74]
- David Hogue[74]
- Jerry Klein[74]
- Curt Kreun[74]
- Lonnie Laffen[74]
- Scott Meyer[74]
- Dave Oehlke[74]
- Arne Osland[74]
- Shawn Vedaa[74]
- Terry Wanzek[74]
- Rich Wardner (Majority Leader)[75]
- State Representatives
- Bert Anderson[74]
- Rich Becker[74]
- Jake Blum[74]
- Chuck Damschen[74]
- Jim Grueneich[74]
- Dennis Johnson[74]
- Mary Johnson[74]
- Terry Jones[74]
- Keith Kempenich[74]
- Dwight Kiefert[74]
- Gary Kreidt[74]
- Vernon R. Laning[74]
- Andrew Marschall[74]
- David Monson[74]
- Emily O'Brien[74]
- Bill Oliver[74]
- Bernie Satrom[74]
- Wayne Trottier[74]
- Greg Westlind[74]
- Denton Zuhke[74]
Results
Republican primary results by county
Cramer >= 90%
Cramer >= 80%
Cramer >= 70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kevin Cramer | 61,529 | 87.73% | |
| Republican | Thomas O'Neill | 8,509 | 12.13% | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 95 | 0.14% | |
| Total votes | 70,133 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Debates
Heitkamp and Cramer greet each other during debate for the 2018 Senate's election.
- Complete video of debate, October 18, 2018
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[76] | Lean R (flip) | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[77] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[78] | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[79] | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[80][lower-alpha 1] | Likely R (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[81] | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[82] | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
- The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Heidi Heitkamp (D) | $27,353,798 | $16,356,442 | $11,142,250 |
| Kevin Cramer (R) | $5,584,357 | $5,003,819 | $976,045 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[83] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Heidi Heitkamp (D) |
Kevin Cramer (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOX News | October 27–30, 2018 | 789 LV | ± 3.0% | 42% | 51% | 2% | 4% |
| 851 RV | ± 3.0% | 42% | 49% | 3% | 6% | ||
| Trafalgar Group (R) | October 23–24, 2018 | 1,498 | ± 2.1% | 46% | 55% | – | – |
| Strategic Research Associates | October 12–19, 2018 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 40% | 56% | – | 4% |
| FOX News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 704 LV | ± 3.5% | 41% | 53% | 2% | 3% |
| 801 RV | ± 3.5% | 41% | 50% | 3% | 5% | ||
| Strategic Research Associates | September 17–27, 2018 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 41% | 51% | – | 8% |
| FOX News | September 8–11, 2018 | 701 LV | ± 3.5% | 44% | 48% | 2% | 6% |
| 804 RV | ± 3.5% | 42% | 47% | 2% | 7% | ||
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 457 | ± 7.5% | 47% | 52% | – | 2% |
| Mason-Dixon | June 13–15, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 48% | – | 8% |
| Gravis Marketing | February 21–24, 2018 | 385 | ± 5.0% | 43% | 40% | – | 17% |
| The Tarrance Group (R-NRSC) | February 18–20, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 49% | – | 7% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kevin Cramer | 179,720 | 55.11% | +5.79% | |
| Democratic-NPL | Heidi Heitkamp (incumbent) | 144,376 | 44.27% | -5.97% | |
| Write-in | 2,042 | 0.63% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 326,138 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic-NPL | |||||
References
- Springer, Patrick (September 13, 2017). "U.S. Sen. Heitkamp announces run for re-election". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Forum Communications. Retrieved September 13, 2017.
- "United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Retrieved March 3, 2017.
- "Incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp concedes to Kevin Cramer in North Dakota Senate Race". ABC News. November 6, 2018. Retrieved November 7, 2018.
- "Can Heitkamp Win Again in Red North Dakota? Many analysts believe the race will be between Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) and Rep. Kevin Cramer (R). | RealClearPolitics". Retrieved 2017-07-20.
- "2018 Senate race in N.D. could be the most expensive in state's history". KFYR-TV. Retrieved 2018-05-02.
- Many Native IDs Won't Be Accepted At North Dakota Polling Places from NPR
- Has North Dakota Law Made It Harder for Native Americans to Vote? (True) from Snopes
- Supreme Court ruling does not mean Native Americans can't vote in North Dakota from Politifact
- Republicans wanted to suppress the Native American vote. It's working from The Guardian
- Easter, Sam (March 17, 2018). "Sen. Heidi Heitkamp wins Dem-NPL endorsement". The Bismarck Tribune. Lee Enterprises. Forum News Service. Retrieved April 17, 2018.
- "Grand Forks Herald: "In Grand Forks visit, Joe Biden backs Heitkamp, blasts Trump and boosts everyday values"".
- https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1054429250999197702
- "Former ag secretary Vilsack endorses Heitkamp for Senate".
- "Former Acting Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services, Mary Wakefield, Endorses Heidi Heitkamp for U.S. Senate". Archived from the original on 2018-08-13. Retrieved 2018-08-12.
- "Kirsten Gillibrand on Twitter". Retrieved 10 October 2018.
- "Former senator backs senator".
- "Former North Dakota senator: Heitkamp will win re-election".
- "Congressman Earl Pomeroy Endorses Heidi Heitkamp for U.S. Senate". Archived from the original on 2018-10-24. Retrieved 2018-11-02.
- "Grand Forks Mayor Mike Brown Endorses Heidi Heitkamp for Senate".
- "New Heitkamp ad puts work done for first responders in the spotlight".
- "Bizarro World: Democratic Senate Incumbent Heidi Heitkamp Uses Self-Described Trump Voter to Defend Her Record on Border Security".
- https://twitter.com/amyschumer/status/1054523400092352515
- Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018). "END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror. Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet). Retrieved October 20, 2018 – via Twitter.
- "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2018-10-24. Retrieved 2018-11-02.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
- "AFGE | AFGE Endorses Sen. Heidi Heitkamp for Reelection". afge.org. American Federation of Government Employees. August 22, 2018.
- Tiffany Muller (May 3, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Bob Casey, Heidi Heitkamp and Sheldon Whitehouse for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United.
- "Heidi Heitkamp – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
- "2018 Senate Endorsees - JStreet".
- "Heidi Heitkamp - Los Angeles Women's Political Action Committee". Retrieved 10 October 2018.
- "National Association of Home Builders Endorses Heidi Heitkamp for U.S. Senate". Archived from the original on 2018-08-13. Retrieved 2018-08-12.
- "Candidates We Endorse and Support - NCPSSM". ncpssm.org. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
- "NEA Fund - Recommended Candidates". neafund.org.
- "Farmers Union PAC Endorses Heidi Heitkamp for U.S. Senate" (Press release). Fargo: Heidi for Senate. September 11, 2018. Archived from the original on September 20, 2018. Retrieved 2018-09-19.
- "North Dakota AFL-CIO endorses Heidi Heitkamp for U.S. Senate". Archived from the original on 2018-08-13. Retrieved 2018-08-12.
- "North Dakota United Highlights Heidi Heitkamp's Support Among North Dakota Teachers and Public Employees" (Press release). Fargo: Heidi for Senate. September 18, 2018. Archived from the original on September 20, 2018. Retrieved 2018-09-19.
- "National Border Patrol Council Reveals Why It Endorsed Heidi..." Retrieved 10 October 2018.
- Tribune Editorial Board (October 28, 2018). "Heitkamp best for state in U.S. Senate". bismarcktribune.com. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
- "2018 United States Senate primary election in North Dakota".
- Berger, Judson (February 15, 2018). "GOP Rep. Cramer to challenge Dem Heitkamp for Senate seat, reversing course". Fox News.
- "Air Force vet, anti-immigration candidate jumps into ND U.S..." INFORUM. Retrieved 2018-05-02.
- Springer, Patrick (August 16, 2017). "North Dakota Republican announces he's running for Heitkamp's seat". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Retrieved August 16, 2017.
- "Tom Campbell announces run for Congress". KX News. February 16, 2018. Retrieved February 16, 2018.
- Tom Campbell [@tomfornd] (February 16, 2018). "That's why I am officially endorsing my friend Congressman Kevin Cramer in his Senate race against Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- Evans, Bo (February 13, 2018). "Emineth withdraws from Senate race". KFYR-TV. Retrieved February 13, 2018.
- "2018 Primary Election Contest/Candidate List". North Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved May 2, 2018.
- Hageman, John (January 3, 2018). "Rick Becker, Bismarck state legislator, rules out run for Congress". The Dickinson Press.
- Morken, Mike (January 11, 2018). "Rick Berg "not running" for U.S. Senate". Valley News Live. Retrieved January 12, 2018.
- Hageman, John (December 1, 2017). "List of potential ND GOP Senate candidates narrows as CEO declines to run". West Fargo Pioneer.
- Port, Rob (September 7, 2017). "Border States Electric CEO Tammy Miller considering challenging Heitkamp for Senate seat". Say Anything.
- Port, Rob (July 5, 2017). "NDGOP Recruiting SBHE President Kathy Neset for Possible Senate Run". Say Anything. Retrieved August 16, 2017.
- Hageman, John (January 12, 2018). "Fedorchak doesn't rule out challenging Heitkamp for U.S. Senate seat". wdaz.com.
- Robillard, Kevin (September 18, 2017). "News: @club4growth touting Treasurer Kelly Schmidt as candidate against Heitkamp in #NDSen. She's up 48-44 in poll:". Twitter.
- Byrnes, Jesse (11 September 2018). "George W. Bush to hit fundraising circuit for GOP candidates". Retrieved 10 October 2018.
- "Kevin Cramer". facebook.com. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
- Donald J. Trump. "Congratulations to @KevinCramer on his huge win in North Dakota. We need Kevin in the Senate, and I strongly endorse him. Heidi voted NO on our Tax Cuts, and always will vote no when we need her. Kevin is strong on Crime & Borders, big on Cutting Taxes!". Twitter.
- "Vice President Pence to campaign for Cramer in Fargo". kfgo.com. March 27, 2018. Archived from the original on July 16, 2018. Retrieved March 27, 2018.
- Robert Lauf. "Senator Hoeven joins in supporting @kevincramer for Senate #NDPol". Twitter.
- Bluestein, Greg (August 24, 2018). "David Perdue aims to shore up embattled Senate candidates". Politically Georgia.
- https://ndgop.org/veterans/statements-north-dakota-veterans-and-sen-ben-sasse-ne-criticize-chuck-hagel-offer-strong-support-for-cramer/
- Doug Burgum. "Excited to support @KevinCramer in his run for U.S. Senate. #NDpol #NDsen". Twitter.
- https://twitter.com/kimguilfoyle/status/1057770716702167041
- Kevin Cramer. "I am deeply honored to have the endorsement of a Medal of Honor recipient and a true hero, Clint Romesha. He is a real-life Captain America. #NDSen". Twitter.
- "ACU Endorses Kevin Cramer". American Conservative Union.
- "BREAKING: Family Policy Alliance of North Dakota Endorses Cramer, Armstrong". Family Policy Alliance. July 25, 2018.
- "Small Business Endorses Congressman Kevin Cramer for the U.S. Senate". NFIB. August 14, 2018.
- "Right to Life groups back Kevin Cramer for U.S. Senate over Heidi Heitkamp". NRL News Today. June 6, 2018.
- Kevin Cramer. "Grateful to accept the endorsement of the NDFB this afternoon. I will continue to fight for the interests of North Dakota producers in the United States Senate. #NDSen #FarmersForCramer". Twitter.
- "Republican Jewish Coalition launches first wave of midterm endorsements". NBCNews.com. July 23, 2018.
- "SBA List Candidate Fund Endorses Kevin Cramer for U.S. Senate in ND". Susan B. Anthony List. September 19, 2018.
- "NRA Endorses Cramer for U.S. Senate in North Dakota". NRA-ILA. October 8, 2018.
- "NOM Endorses Candidates in Key Senate Midterm Contests". NOM Blog. Retrieved 29 October 2018.
- Forum Editorial (October 21, 2018). "Editorial: ND voters should support Cramer for Senate, Armstrong for House". inforum.com. Retrieved October 22, 2018.
- "Minot Daily News endorses Kevin Cramer — 1". Minot Daily News. November 1, 2018. Retrieved November 1, 2018.
- Port, Rob (August 22, 2017). "Self-Described "Outsider" Senate Candidate Touts 34 Endorsements From the Good Old Boys Club". Say Anything. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
- Tom Campbell. "BREAKING: Rich Wardner, North Dakota Senate Majority Leader, Endorses Tom Campbell for U.S. Senate! #NDPol #NDSen". Twitter.
- "2018 Senate Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2018-08-18.
- "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Senate". centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2018-08-18.
- "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
- "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
- "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
- "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
- "Campaign finance data". Retrieved October 31, 2018.
- "OFFICIAL (WITHOUT RECOUNTS) 2018 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS". sos.nd.gov/.
External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at Center for Responsive Politics
- Official campaign websites
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