2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota

The 2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a United States Senator from Minnesota to replace incumbent Democratic Senator Al Franken until the regular expiration of the term on January 3, 2021. Facing multiple accusations of sexual misconduct, Franken announced on December 7, 2017, that he would resign effective January 2, 2018. Governor Mark Dayton appointed his successor, Tina Smith, on December 13, 2017, and she ran in the special election. This election coincided with a regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the Class 1 Senate seat, U.S. House elections, a gubernatorial election, State House elections, and other elections.

Not to be confused with 2018 United States Senate election in Minnesota.
2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota
November 6, 2018
Turnout63.66%
 
Nominee Tina Smith Karin Housley
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Popular vote 1,370,540 1,095,777
Percentage 53.0% 42.4%
County Results

Smith:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%

Housley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Congressional District Results

Smith:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Housley:      40–50%      50–60%
U.S. senator before election

Tina Smith
Democratic (DFL)

 Elected U.S. Senator

Tina Smith
Democratic (DFL)

Elections in Minnesota
General elections
Federal elections
Presidential elections
Senate elections
House of Representatives
State executive elections
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant gubernatorial elections
Secretary of State elections
State Auditor elections
Attorney General elections
State legislative elections
Senate elections
House of Representatives elections
Special elections
Ballot questions
2012
Minneapolis
General elections
Mayoral elections
City Council elections
Saint Paul
Mayoral elections

The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 14, 2018.[1] Smith won the Democratic primary and defeated Republican nominee Karin Housley in the general election.

DFL primary

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements
Richard Painter
Local and statewide politicians
Individuals

Results
Results by county
Results by congressional district
Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic (DFL) Tina Smith (incumbent) 433,705 76.06%
Democratic (DFL) Richard Painter 78,193 13.71%
Democratic (DFL) Ali Chehem Ali 18,897 3.31%
Democratic (DFL) Gregg Iverson 17,825 3.13%
Democratic (DFL) Nick Leonard 16,529 2.90%
Democratic (DFL) Christopher L. Seymore Sr. 5,041 0.88%
Total votes 570,190 100%

Republican primary

Nominated

Eliminated in primary
  • Bob Anderson, businessman[15]
  • Nikolay Nikolayevich Bey[3]

Declined

Results
Results by county
Results by congressional district
Republican Party primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Karin Housley 186,384 61.95%
Republican Bob Anderson 107,102 35.60%
Republican Nikolay Nikolayevich Bey 7,355 2.45%
Total votes 300,861 100%

Minor parties and independents

Candidates

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[28] Lean D September 28, 2018
Inside Elections[29] Likely D April 9, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] Likely D April 5, 2018
Fox News[31] Likely D^ July 9, 2018
CNN[32] Likely D July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[33] Lean D August 13, 2018

^Highest rating given

Endorsements
Karin Housley (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State Legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Tina Smith (D)
Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers and news websites

Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Tina Smith (D) $8,237,522 $7,308,790 $928,730
Karin Housley (R) $4,049,032 $3,689,562 $359,470
Source: Federal Election Commission[97]

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Tina
Smith (D)		 Karin
Housley (R)		 Sarah
Wellington (LMN)		 Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 953 – 51% 42% 3% 2%[98] –
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 49% 39% – 2% 10%
SurveyUSA October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 5.3% 48% 40% – 5% 7%
St. Cloud State University October 15–30, 2018 420 – 44% 29% – – –
Mason-Dixon October 15–17, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 47% 41% 1% 1%[99] 10%
Change Research October 12–13, 2018 1,413 – 46% 43% 5% 2%[98] 2%
Marist College September 30 – October 4, 2018 637 LV ± 4.9% 54% 38% – <1% 7%
860 RV ± 4.2% 52% 39% – <1% 9%
Mason-Dixon September 10–12, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 44% 37% 2% 2%[98] 15%
SurveyUSA September 6–8, 2018 574 ± 4.9% 48% 39% – 2% 11%
Suffolk University August 17–20, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 44% 37% 2% 0%[100] 18%
Emerson College August 8–11, 2018 500 ± 4.6% 32% 28% – – 41%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 876 ± 4.0% 49% 35% – 1% 15%
BK Strategies (R) June 24–25, 2018 1,574 ± 2.5% 48% 39% – – 13%

Results

Smith won the election by 10.62 percentage points. Her margin was similar to that of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tim Walz, who defeated his Republican opponent by 11.41%. Both of those margins of victory were much smaller than that of senior Senator Amy Klobuchar, who on the same day defeated her Republican opponent by 24.1 points. Smith won by huge margins in the Democratic strongholds of Hennepin County and Ramsey County, home of Minneapolis and St. Paul respectively. She also managed a 10% margin of victory in suburban Dakota County, just outside Minneapolis, and won St. Louis County, home of Duluth. Housley won most of the state's rural areas. Turnout was high for a midterm election, with over 63% of registered voters in Minnesota casting ballots.

Results by precinct
United States Senate special election in Minnesota, 2018[101]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic (DFL) Tina Smith (incumbent) 1,370,540 52.97% -0.18%
Republican Karin Housley 1,095,777 42.35% -0.56%
Legal Marijuana Now Sarah Wellington 95,614 3.70% N/A
Independent Jerry Trooien 24,324 0.94% N/A
Write-in 1,101 0.04% N/A
Total votes 2,587,356 100.0% N/A
Democratic (DFL) hold

Voter demographics
Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Smith Housley No
Answer		 % of
Voters
Gender
Men 49 49 2 46
Women 61 37 2 54
Age
18–24 years old 70 28 2 6
25–29 years old 55 42 3 5
30–39 years old 60 38 2 12
40–49 years old 51 45 4 13
50–64 years old 53 45 2 29
65 and older 55 44 1 35
Race
White 53 45 2 89
Black 85 12 3 5
Latino N/A N/A N/A 3
Asian N/A N/A N/A 2
Other N/A N/A N/A 2
Race by gender
White men 46 52 2 41
White women 59 40 1 48
Black men N/A N/A N/A 3
Black women N/A N/A N/A 2
Latino men N/A N/A N/A 1
Latino women N/A N/A N/A 1
Others N/A N/A N/A 4
Education
High school or less 56 43 1 17
Some college education 48 48 4 24
Associate degree 47 51 2 17
Bachelor's degree 59 40 1 26
Advanced degree 69 29 2 16
Education and race
White college graduates 62 37 1 38
White no college degree 46 52 2 51
Non-white college graduates 72 28 N/A 4
Non-white no college degree 77 18 5 7
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees 68 30 2 21
White women without college degrees 51 46 3 28
White men with college degrees 55 44 1 17
White men without college degrees 40 58 2 23
Non-whites 75 21 4 11
Income
Under $30,000 63 33 4 14
$30,000–49,999 54 43 3 20
$50,000–99,999 49 48 3 36
$100,000–199,999 54 43 3 23
Over $200,000 N/A N/A N/A 7
Party ID
Democrats 96 4 N/A 39
Republicans 9 90 1 32
Independents 53 43 4 29
Party by gender
Democratic men 96 4 N/A 14
Democratic women 95 4 1 25
Republican men 7 91 2 15
Republican women 10 89 1 17
Independent men 47 49 4 16
Independent women 60 36 4 13
Ideology
Liberals 93 4 3 27
Moderates 67 31 2 39
Conservatives 11 87 2 33
Marital status
Married 50 48 2 67
Unmarried 65 33 2 33
Gender by marital status
Married men 47 52 1 31
Married women 52 45 3 36
Unmarried men 55 40 5 15
Unmarried women 74 26 N/A 17
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 53 46 1 12
No 58 40 2 88
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 75 23 2 49
Immigration 23 75 2 22
Economy 32 65 3 19
Gun policy N/A N/A N/A 8
Area type
Urban 66 31 3 40
Suburban 52 45 3 32
Rural 42 56 2 28
Source: CNN[102]

See also

References
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  2. Domonoske, Camila (December 13, 2017). "Minnesota Lt. Gov. Tina Smith Will Replace Al Franken in U.S. Senate". NPR. Retrieved December 13, 2017.
  3. "Candidate Filings". candidates.sos.state.mn.us. Retrieved 2018-06-08.
  4. Magan, Christopher (February 5, 2018). "Fellow Democrat Nick Leonard to challenge Tina Smith for Senate seat". St. Paul Pioneer Press. Retrieved February 6, 2018.
  5. Keen, Judy (April 30, 2018). "Richard Painter exits GOP, launches bid against DFL Sen. Tina Smith". Star Tribune. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
  6. Coolican, J. Patrick (December 13, 2017). "Rep. Keith Ellison won't run for U.S. Senate in '18". Star Tribune. Retrieved December 13, 2017.
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  11. "Former Gov. Arne Carlson Endorses Painter's Democratic Senate Run". CBS Minnesota. May 7, 2018.
  12. "I contributed to the fight for our democracy by donating to the Richard Painter campaign! #PeopleForPainter #CountryOverParty". Twitter. Rosie O'Donnell. April 28, 2018.
  13. "Minnesota 2018 Primary Election Results". Minnesota Secretary of State. Retrieved 28 May 2019.
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  19. "Emmer will seek re-election in 6th Congressional District". ABC Newspapers. January 18, 2018.
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  26. Coolican, J. Patrick (April 16, 2018). "Controversial developer Jerry Trooien running for U.S. Senate as independent". Star Tribune. Retrieved June 12, 2018.
  27. Golden, Erin (June 16, 2018). "Legal pot advocates join Minnesota races for state, federal offices". Star Tribune. Retrieved June 17, 2018.
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  34. Donald J. Trump. "Just made my second stop in Minnesota for a MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN rally. We need to elect @KarinHousley to the U.S. Senate, and we need the strong leadership of @TomEmmer, @Jason2CD, @JimHagedornMN and @PeteStauber in the U.S. House!". Twitter.
  35. Smith, Kelly (August 30, 2018). "Vice President Mike Pence honors McCain in American Legion event in Minneapolis after White House controversy". Star Tribune.
  36. "Dr. Condoleezza Rice endorses Karin Housley for U.S. Senate". housleyforsenate.com. Archived from the original on 2018-11-01. Retrieved 2018-10-31.
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  40. "David Perdue aims to shore up embattled Senate candidates". 24 August 2018. Retrieved 24 August 2018.
  41. Marco Rubio. "Proud to be in #Minnesota this morning helping to elect their next Senator @KarinHousley". Twitter.
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  45. Phil Housley. "My wife @KarinHousley will make a great US Senator!". Twitter.
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  49. "Susan B. Anthony List Endorses Karin Housley for U.S. Senate in MN Special Election". Susan B. Anthony List. March 27, 2018.
  50. Karin Housley. "I am so pleased to have the endorsement of @maggieslist1—joining so many other conservative women across the country running for office to fight for the communities we love. #mnsen". Twitter.
  51. Karin Housley. "Police Officers Federation of Minneapolis endorses Karin Housley". Facebook.
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  55. "Small Business Endorses Karin Housley for U.S. Senate". NFIB. September 19, 2018.
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  57. "Senate special election: Housley would do well". Fairmont Sentinel. October 25, 2018. Retrieved October 25, 2018.
  58. Barack Obama. "Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote:". Twitter.
  59. Tina Smith. "I'm absolutely honored to have the endorsement of Vice President @JoeBiden. I've been fighting for the progressive values of Minnesotans for decades and I'll keep being the champion of our shared values VP Biden fought so hard for". Twitter.
  60. "MN-Sen: Walter Mondale Helps Both Minnesota's Senators Keep Up The Resistance Against Trump". Daily Kos. April 19, 2018.
  61. Hillary Clinton. ".@TinaSmithMN shares some qualities with her wonderful home state: hardworking, no-nonsense, huge heart. She's in a tight race to keep working for Minnesota families in a race that could decide control of the Senate. Pitch in if you can:". Twitter.
  62. "MN, PA & MT-Sen: Dick Durbin (D. IL) Helps These Democrats Fight Back Against Trump's Agenda". Daily Kos. May 31, 2018.
  63. "MN-Sen: Sen. Kamala Harris (D. CA) Gives Tina Smith (D) A Boost To Win Her Special Election". Daily Kos. June 25, 2018.
  64. "MN-Sen: Sen. Maggie Hassan (D. NH) Helps Tina Smith (D) Get Ready To Defeat Michelle Bachmann (R)". Daily Kos. January 18, 2018.
  65. Jones sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Smith.
  66. "MN-Sen: Amy Klobuchar (D) Helps Tina "The Velvet Hammer" Smith (D) Get Ready For Victory". Daily Kos. March 6, 2018.
  67. "MI & MN-Sen: Jeff Merkley (D. OR) Helps His Stabenow (D) & Smith (D) Keep Up The Resistance". Daily Kos. June 26, 2018.
  68. "MI, IN, WI, MN, OH & PA-Sen: Sen. Gary Peters (D. MI) Helps Senate Dems Win Big In The Midwest". Daily Kos. February 28, 2018.
  69. "MN-Sen: Sen. Brian Schatz (D. HI) Helps Fellow Progressive Tina Smith (D) Win Her Special Election". Daily Kos. March 11, 2018.
  70. "OH, WI, PA & MN-Sen: Warren (D. MA) Helps These Dems Continue To Stand Up To Wall Street". Daily Kos. March 9, 2018.
  71. Catherine Cortez Mastro. ".@TinaSmithMN has one of the toughest Senate races. I was on the ground recently with @amyklobuchar & @CecileRichards fighting for Tina". Twitter.
  72. Tina Smith. "So fun to run into my friend @tammybaldwin on the campaign trail today! We're fighting as hard as we can to stay in the Senate and make sure the people of Minnesota and Wisconsin have strong voices representing them in Washington". Twitter.
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  74. Brodey, Sam (December 14, 2017). "Why Minnesota's Democratic House delegation unanimously supports Tina Smith for Senate in 2018". MinnPost. Retrieved December 14, 2017.
  75. Peggy Flanagan. "I've always had fight & fury in me but I've got it like never before and I'm so thankful we have leaders like Tina in DC right now. I'm standing here running for Lt. Governor because of Tina Smith. Because of the path she cleared. I'm grateful for her friendship & her mentorship". Twitter.
  76. Tina Smith. "Folks have been knocking on doors every day, all day, to get people out to vote on (& before!) November 6. We can't take anything for granted - but we're feeling fired up. Thanks to @JeffMerkley @melvincarter3 @VoteBetty & @TristaMatas for greeting DFL volunteers this afternoon!". Twitter.
  77. Eric Garcetti. ""People are so sick and tired of the political games being played in DC. That's why I'm focused on listening and getting things done for Minnesotans!" — @TinaSmithMN. I'm rooting her on today (and for the next 16 days & beyond). #EGinMN". Twitter.
  78. Tina Smith. "In 11 days, @CecileRichards and I need everyone - and I mean everyone - to get to their polling place to vote. Vote for reproductive freedom. Vote for access to affordable high-quality health care. We are responsible for the outcome of this election. With your help, we will win". Twitter.
  79. Munt, Jennifer (December 13, 2017). "AFSCME Backs Tina Smith for U.S. Senate". AFSCME Council 5. Archived from the original on April 12, 2018. Retrieved April 12, 2018.
  80. "Our Candidates - CWA Political". CWA Political.
  81. "State and federal endorsements". Education Minnesota.
  82. "Minnesota AFL-CIO makes first round of 2018 political endorsements | Minnesota AFL-CIO". www.mnaflcio.org. March 6, 2018.
  83. "SEIU Endorse Tina Smith, Angie Craig, Keith Ellison and Betty McCollum". seiumn.org. March 9, 2018.
  84. "Minnesota – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  85. "USW Lauds Appointment of Tina Smith to U.S. Senate". United Steelworkers. Smith has indicated that she will also run in the November 2018 election to fill the remaining two years of the term, and the USW has promised to provide strong support to her campaign.
  86. "2018 Council-endorsed Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  87. "Emily's List endorses Tina Smith for U.S. Senate in Minnesota". Emily's List. January 4, 2018.
  88. "Tina Smith – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
  89. Griffin, Chad (March 28, 2018). "HRC Endorses Tina Smith for U.S. Senate in Minnesota | Human Rights Campaign". Human Rights Campaign.
  90. Auster, Craig (April 10, 2018). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Tina Smith for Senate". League of Conservation Voters.
  91. Davis, Don (June 1, 2018). "Minnesota Democrats endorse Smith, Klobuchar". Duluth News Tribune.
  92. "NARAL Pro-Choice America PAC Endorses Tina Smith for Senate in Minnesota - NARAL Pro-Choice America". NARAL Pro-Choice America. March 8, 2018.
  93. NCPSSM. "Candidates We Endorse and Support". Retrieved 18 December 2018.
  94. Curtis, Kevin (June 1, 2018). "NRDC Action Fund : NRDC Action Fund endorses Sen. Tina Smith". www.nrdcactionfund.org. Archived from the original on June 12, 2018. Retrieved June 8, 2018.
  95. "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection.
  96. "Our View / Endorsement: It's Smith in crowded Senate primary". News Tribune Editorial Board. Duluth News Tribune. July 25, 2018.
  97. "Campaign finance data". Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  98. Jerry Trooien (I) with 2%
  99. Jerry Trooien (I) with 1%
  100. Jerry Trooien (I) with 0%
  101. "Minnesota Secretary Of State - 2018 General Election Results". www.sos.state.mn.us. Retrieved 18 December 2018.
  102. "Minnesota Senate special election exit poll". CNN. Retrieved November 20, 2018.
Official campaign websites
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