2018 United States Senate election in Wyoming
The 2018 United States Senate election in Wyoming took place on November 6, 2018 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Wyoming. The primary election took place August 21, 2018.[1] Republican John Barrasso won reelection with 67% percent of the vote, the lowest percentage of his three U.S. Senate campaigns and the closest a Democrat got to winning a seat since the 1996 election.
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| Turnout | 77.43% | ||||||||||||||||
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 County results Barrasso: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Trauner: 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Wyoming |
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Background
In 2012, incumbent John Barrasso (R) was re-elected with 76% of the vote. A state with low population and rural setting, Wyoming is considered the most Republican state in the nation. It has not elected a Democratic senate candidate since 1970. In 2008, Republican John McCain won the state's presidential vote with 64%. Republican Mitt Romney won it in 2012 with 68% of the vote, and Republican Donald Trump won it in 2016 with 67% of the vote.
Republican primary
Nominated
- John Barrasso, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
Declared
- Dave Dodson, businessman[3]
- Rocky De La Fuente, perennial candidate, and candidate for President of the United States in 2016[4]
- John Holtz, attorney[3]
- Anthony Van Risseghem[3]
Declined
- Foster Friess, businessman (running for Governor of Wyoming)[5][6]
- Erik Prince, founder of Academi[7]
Withdrawn
- Charlie Hardy, Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2014 and candidate for U.S. House of Representatives in 2016[3] (endorsed Dave Dodson)
Results
Results by county:
Barasso—70–80%
Barasso—60–70%
Barasso—50–60%
Dodson—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Barrasso (incumbent) | 74,292 | 64.76% | |
| Republican | Dave Dodson | 32,647 | 28.46% | |
| Republican | John Holtz | 2,981 | 2.60% | |
| Republican | Charlie Hardy (withdrawn) | 2,377 | 2.07% | |
| Republican | Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente | 1,280 | 1.16% | |
| Republican | Anthony Van Risseghem | 870 | 0.7% | |
| Write-in | 267 | 0.23% | ||
| Total votes | 114,714 | 100% | ||
Democratic primary
Nominated
- Gary Trauner, businessman and nominee for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2006 and 2008[9]
Declined
- Mary Throne, former Minority Leader of the Wyoming House of Representatives (running for Governor)[10][11]
Results
Results by county:
Trauner—100%
Trauner—>90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gary Trauner | 17,562 | 98.90% | |
| Write-in | 195 | 1.10% | ||
| Total votes | 17,757 | 100% | ||
Independents
Withdrew
- Dave Dodson, businessman[12] (running as a Republican)[3]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[13] | Safe R | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[14] | Safe R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[16][lower-alpha 1] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[17] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[18] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Barrasso (R) |
Gary Trauner (D) |
Joseph Porambo (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 858 | – | 60% | 31% | 6% | – |
Endorsements
John Barrasso (R)
Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[19]
Gary Trauner (D)
- Organizations
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Barrasso (incumbent) | 136,210 | 66.96% | -8.70% | |
| Democratic | Gary Trauner | 61,227 | 30.10% | +8.45% | |
| Libertarian | Joseph Porambo | 5,658 | 2.78% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 325 | 0.16% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 203,420 | 100% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
County Results
| John Barrasso Republican |
Gary Trauner Democrat |
Joseph Porambo Libertarian |
Write-Ins | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Albany | 6,366 | 44.15% | 7,576 | 52.54% | 442 | 3.07% | 35 | 0.24% | 14,419 |
| Big Horn | 3,564 | 82.56% | 639 | 14.80% | 102 | 2.36% | 12 | 0.28% | 4,317 |
| Campbell | 11,020 | 84.44% | 1,628 | 12.47% | 387 | 2.97% | 16 | 0.12% | 13,051 |
| Carbon | 3,673 | 70.72% | 1,359 | 26.16% | 156 | 3.00% | 6 | 0.12% | 5,194 |
| Converse | 3,959 | 79.87% | 834 | 16.82% | 153 | 3.09% | 11 | 0.22% | 4,957 |
| Crook | 2,642 | 85.56% | 335 | 10.84% | 110 | 3.56% | 1 | 0.03% | 3,089 |
| Fremont | 9,262 | 64.34% | 4,734 | 32.89% | 380 | 2.64% | 19 | 0.13% | 14,395 |
| Goshen | 3,658 | 76.24% | 1,020 | 21.26% | 115 | 2.40% | 5 | 0.10% | 4,798 |
| Hot Springs | 1,742 | 77.15% | 455 | 20.15% | 58 | 2.57% | 3 | 0.13% | 2,258 |
| Johnson | 3,085 | 79.33% | 722 | 18.57% | 79 | 2.03% | 3 | 0.08% | 3,889 |
| Laramie | 19,473 | 59.72% | 12,167 | 37.31% | 907 | 2.78% | 61 | 0.19% | 32,608 |
| Lincoln | 5,846 | 81.23% | 1,152 | 16.01% | 187 | 2.60% | 12 | 0.16% | 7,197 |
| Natrona | 16,359 | 66.87% | 7,285 | 29.78% | 778 | 3.18% | 42 | 0.17% | 24,464 |
| Niobrara | 980 | 84.56% | 144 | 12.42% | 32 | 2.76% | 3 | 0.26% | 1,159 |
| Park | 8,938 | 75.57% | 2,589 | 21.89% | 276 | 2.33% | 24 | 0.20% | 11,827 |
| Platte | 2,850 | 75.30% | 801 | 21.16% | 131 | 3.46% | 3 | 0.08% | 3,785 |
| Sheridan | 8,318 | 70.46% | 3,205 | 27.15% | 261 | 2.21% | 21 | 0.18% | 11,805 |
| Sublette | 2,653 | 77.87% | 668 | 19.61% | 84 | 2.47% | 2 | 0.06% | 3,407 |
| Sweetwater | 8,577 | 66.11% | 3,943 | 30.39% | 430 | 3.31% | 23 | 0.18% | 12,973 |
| Teton | 3,833 | 32.62% | 7,691 | 65.46% | 220 | 1.87% | 6 | 0.05% | 11,750 |
| Uinta | 4,713 | 75.05% | 1,371 | 21.83% | 188 | 2.99% | 8 | 0.13% | 6,280 |
| Washakie | 2,423 | 77.91% | 588 | 18.91% | 93 | 2.99% | 6 | 0.19% | 3,110 |
| Weston | 2,275 | 84.64% | 321 | 11.94% | 89 | 3.31% | 3 | 0.11% | 2,688 |
Notes
- The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
References
- https://soswy.state.wy.us/Elections/Docs/2018/2018_Key_Election_Dates.pdf
- "Barrasso says he's ready to take on possible primary challenges". wyomingnews.com. 2017-10-11. Retrieved 2018-04-04.
- "2018 Primary Election Candidate Roster" (PDF). Wyoming Secretary of State. Retrieved June 1, 2018.
- "Former Presidential Candidate Files In Wyoming U.S. Senate Race". KGAB AM 650. Retrieved 26 August 2018.
- Costa, Robert (October 9, 2017). "GOP megadonor Foster Friess exploring a run for U.S. Senate in Wyoming". The Washington Post. Retrieved October 9, 2017.
- "GOP megadonor Friess to run for Wyoming governor". Politico. April 20, 2018. Retrieved April 20, 2018.
- Peters, Jeremy W.; Haberman, Maggie; Thrush, Glenn (October 8, 2017). "Erik Prince, Blackwater Founder, Weighs Primary Challenge to Wyoming Republican". The New York Times. Retrieved October 9, 2017.
- Statewide Candidates Official Summary
- "Democrat Gary Trauner Announces Bid for Wyoming U.S. Senate". U.S. News & World Report. December 8, 2017. Retrieved December 8, 2017.
- Funk, Joel (August 27, 2017). "Former Wyoming lawmaker Mary Throne announces bid for governor". Wyoming Tribune Eagle. Retrieved August 27, 2017.
- Greenwald, Joy (August 25, 2017). "Throne Launches Campaign for Wyoming Governor". KGAB. Retrieved August 27, 2017.
- "Wealthy independent enters Wyoming US Senate race". usnews.com. Retrieved 26 August 2018.
- "2018 Senate Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
- "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
- "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 4, 2018.
- "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
- "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
- "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
- Arno Rosenfeld. "Trump is backing Barrasso ahead of a reelection campaign. Will that matter?". trib.com. Retrieved 26 August 2018.
- "End Citizens United Endorses Gary Trauner for U.S. Senate in Wyoming". End Citizens United. March 1, 2018. Retrieved March 14, 2018.
- https://soswy.state.wy.us/Elections/Docs/2018/Results/General/2018_Wyoming_General_Election_Results.pdf
- http://soswy.state.wy.us/Elections/Docs/2018/Results/General/2018_Statewide_Candidates_Summary.pdf
External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at Center for Responsive Politics
- Official campaign websites
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