2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the four U.S. Representatives from the State of Iowa, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The state congressional delegation flipped from a 3–1 Republican majority to a 3–1 Democratic majority. The Democrats last won the majority of seats in the 2010 election.

2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa

November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)

All 4 Iowa seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election 1 3
Seats won 3 1
Seat change 2 2
Popular vote 664,676 612,338
Percentage 50.52% 46.54%
Swing 6.05% 7.11%

Results:
      Democratic hold
      Republican hold      Democratic gain

Overview

PartyCandi-
dates
VotesSeats
No.%No.+/–%
Democratic Party4664,67650.48%3275.00%
Republican Party4612,33846.51%1225.00%
Libertarian Party429,8942.27%00.00%
Independent35,1000.39%00.00%
Legal Marijuana Now Party12,0150.15%00.00%
Green Party11,8880.14%00.00%
Write-in7320.06%00.00%
Total171,316,643100.00%4100.00%
Popular vote
Democratic
50.48%
Republican
46.51%
Libertarian
2.27%
Other
0.74%
House seats
Democratic
75.00%
Republican
25.00%

By district

Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa by district:[1]

District Democratic Republican Others Total Result
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1170,34250.96%153,44245.91%10,4593.13%334,243100%Democratic gain
District 2171,44654.79%133,28742.60%8,1802.61%312,913100%Democratic hold
District 3175,64249.30%167,93347.14%12,6663.56%356,241100%Democratic gain
District 4147,24647.04%157,67650.37%8,1232.59%313,045100%Republican hold
Total664,67650.49%612,33846.51%39,4283.00%1,316,442100%

District 1

Republican Rod Blum, who has represented the district since 2015, was reelected to a second term with 54% of the vote in 2016. However, in 2018, Democratic Iowa State Representative Abby Finkenauer went on to flip the district, being one of many swing districts that gave way in surprising margins for Democrats in a wave election.

The 1st district went for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election with a 49% to 45% margin, after voting for Barack Obama with a 56% to 43% margin in 2012.[2]

Candidates

Declared
  • Abby Finkenauer, state representative[3]
  • Thomas Heckroth, former staffer for United States Senator Tom Harkin[4][5]
  • George Ramsey III, former military recruiter[5]
  • Courtney Rowe, engineer and Bernie Sanders delegate at the 2016 state convention[6]
Declined

Endorsements

Abby Finkenauer
State legislators
Individuals
Thomas Heckroth
State legislators
Individuals
Courtney Rowe
Organization

Results

2018 Iowa's 1st congressional district Democratic primary results by county:
Democratic primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Abby Finkenauer 29,745 66.80
Democratic Thomas Heckroth 8,516 19.12
Democratic Courtney Rowe 3,381 7.59
Democratic George Ramsey 2,837 6.37
Democratic Write-ins 50 0.11
Total votes 44,529 100

Republican primary

Incumbent Rod Blum ran for re-election to a third term and was unopposed in the primary.

Results

2018 Iowa's 1st congressional district Republican primary results by county:
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rod Blum (incumbent) 14,737 98.88
Republican Write-ins 167 1.12
Total votes 14,904 100

Other Candidates

  • Henry Gaff, co-chair of the Iowa Green Party, announced he was running as a Green Party candidate.[14] Gaff was only 18, meaning he would not have met the U.S. Constitution's required minimum age of 25 to be elected to the House of Representatives.[14]
  • Troy Hageman, activist (Libertarian)

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Lean D October 3, 2018
Inside Elections[16] Lean D September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Lean D October 4, 2018
Daily Kos[18] Lean D October 5, 2018
Fox News[19] Lean D September 28, 2018
CNN[20] Lean D October 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[21] Lean D September 28, 2018
The New York Times[22] Lean D October 5, 2018
Politico[23] Lean D October 9, 2018

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rod
Blum (R)
Abby
Finkenauer (D)
Troy
Hageman (L)
Undecided
Emerson College October 29 – November 1, 2018 353 ± 5.5% 41% 53% 2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 28–31, 2018 452 ± 4.9% 39% 46% 4% 11%
The Polling Company (R-Blum) October 12–13, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 43% 45% 4% 6%
The Polling Company (R-Blum) October 3–4, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 43% 44% 3% 8%
NYT Upshot/Siena College September 18–20, 2018 502 ± 4.6% 37% 52% 11%
Emerson College September 6–8, 2018 250 ± 6.4% 38% 43% 12%
DCCC (D) February 13–14, 2018 41% 47%
Public Policy Polling (D) February 12–13, 2018 742 ± 3.6% 42% 43% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D-Heckroth) November 2–3, 2017 737 42% 43% 16%
Public Policy Polling (D) October 6–8, 2017 1,093 ± 3.0% 40% 42% 18%

Results

2018 Iowa's 1st congressional district results by county:
Iowa's 1st congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Abby Finkenauer 170,342 51.0
Republican Rod Blum (incumbent) 153,442 45.9
Libertarian Troy Hageman 10,285 3.1
Write-in 174 0.0
Total votes 334,243 100.0
Democratic gain from Republican

District 2

Democratic Representative Dave Loebsack, who has represented the district since 2007, was reelected to a sixth term with 54% of the vote in 2016. Loebsack ran for reelection.[24]

The 2nd district went for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election with a 49% to 45% margin, after voting for Barack Obama with a 56% to 43% margin in 2012.[2]

Democratic primary

Incumbent Dave Loebsack ran for re-election to a seventh term in office and was unopposed in the primary.

Results

2018 Iowa's 2nd congressional district Democratic primary results by county:
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Dave Loebsack (incumbent) 42,378 99.26
Democratic Write-ins 314 0.74
Total votes 42,692 100

Candidates

  • Ginny Caligiuri, businesswoman (write-in)[25][26]
  • Christopher Peters, Republican nominee in 2016[27]
Declined

Results

2018 Iowa's 2nd congressional district Republican primary results by county:
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Christopher Peters 18,056 85.67
Republican Ginny Caligiuri (write-in) 2,839 13.47
Republican Other write-ins 181 0.86
Total votes 21,076 100

Independents

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[29] Safe D October 3, 2018
Inside Elections[16] Safe D September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] Safe D October 4, 2018
Daily Kos[18] Safe D October 5, 2018
Fox News[19] Likely D September 28, 2018
CNN[31] Safe D October 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[21] Likely D September 28, 2018
The New York Times[32] Safe D October 5, 2018
Politico[23] Likely D October 9, 2018

Polling

Poll source Dates
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dave
Loebsack (D)
Christopher
Peters (R)
Other Undecided
Emerson College October 29 – November 1, 2018 373 ± 5.3% 53% 40% 5%
Gravis Marketing (R-Peters) September 8–11, 2018 425 ± 4.8% 46% 38% 16%
43% 37% 3%[33] 17%
Emerson College September 6–8, 2018 250 ± 6.4% 45% 21% 28%

Results

2018 Iowa's 2nd congressional district results by county:
Iowa's 2nd congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Dave Loebsack (incumbent) 171,446 54.8
Republican Christopher Peters 133,287 42.6
Libertarian Mark Strauss 6,181 2.0
Independent Daniel Clark 1,837 0.6
Write-in 162 0.0
Total votes 312,913 100.0
Democratic hold

District 3

Republican David Young, who had represented the district since 2015, was reelected to a second term with 53% of the vote in 2016. He ran for a third term in 2018, but lost to Democratic candidate Cindy Axne.

The 3rd district went for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election with a 49% to 45% margin, after voting for Barack Obama with a 51% to 47% margin in 2012.[2]

Candidates

Declared
Failed
  • Theresa Greenfield, real estate executive,[39] failed to make the primary ballot. After her campaign manager was fired for forging signatures on nominating papers, she attempted to re-collect the 1,790 signatures necessary to make the ballot, but did not get enough signatures.[40]
Withdrew
  • Austin Frerick, former Treasury Department economist[41][42]
  • Paul Knupp, psychiatric rehabilitation practitioner and minister,[43] withdrew from the Democratic primary to join the Green party
  • Heather Ryan, nominee for KY-01 in 2008[44][45]
  • Anna Ryon, attorney with the Office of Consumer Advocate[46]
  • Mike Sherzan, businessman and candidate in 2016[47][48]
Declined

Endorsements

Austin Frerick (withdrawn)
Pete D'Alessandro

Polling

Poll source Dates
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Cindy
Axne
(D)
Pete
D'Alessandro
(D)
Eddie
Mauro
(D)
Undecided
Selzer & Co. May 13–16, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 26% 11% 27%

Results

2018 Iowa's 3rd congressional district Democratic primary results by county:
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Cindy Axne 32,910 57.80
Democratic Eddie J. Mauro 15,006 26.35
Democratic Pete D'Alessandro 8,874 15.58
Democratic Write-ins 150 0.26
Total votes 56,940 100

Republican primary

David Young ran for reelection to a third term in office. No other Republican filed to challenge him.

Results

2018 Iowa's 3rd congressional district Republican primary results by county:
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Young (incumbent) 21,712 98.93
Republican Write-ins 234 1.07
Total votes 21,946 100

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Tossup October 3, 2018
Inside Elections[16] Tossup September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Tossup October 4, 2018
Daily Kos[18] Tossup October 5, 2018
Fox News[19] Tossup September 28, 2018
CNN[20] Tossup October 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[21] Tossup September 28, 2018
The New York Times[22] Tossup October 5, 2018
Politico[23] Tossup October 9, 2018

Polling

Poll source Dates
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
David
Young (R)
Cindy
Axne (D)
Undecided
Emerson College October 29 – November 1, 2018 380 ± 5.3% 45% 46% 3%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 25–27, 2018 504 ± 4.6% 41% 43% 11%
NYT Upshot/Siena College September 27–30, 2018 502 ± 4.6% 43% 44% 13%
Emerson College September 6–8, 2018 260 ± 6.4% 47% 31% 15%
DCCC (D) September 4–5, 2018 575 ± 4.1% 43% 46% 11%
ALG Research (D-Axne) July 8–12, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 45% 14%

Results

2018 Iowa's 3rd congressional district results by county:
Iowa's 3rd congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Cindy Axne 175,642 49.3
Republican David Young (incumbent) 167,933 47.1
Libertarian Bryan Holder 7,267 2.0
Legal Marijuana Now Mark Elworth Jr. 2,015 0.6
Green Paul Knupp 1,888 0.5
Independent Joe Grandanette 1,301 0.4
Write-in 195 0.1
Total votes 356,241 100.0
Democratic gain from Republican

District 4

Republican Representative Steve King, who has represented the district since 2013 and previously represented the 5th district from 2003 to 2013, was reelected to a ninth term in congress in 2018.[56]

The 4th district went for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election with a 61% to 34% margin, after voting for Mitt Romney with a 53% to 45% margin in 2012.[2]

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew
  • Paul Dahl, candidate for Governor of Iowa in 2014[60]
  • Kim Weaver, nominee in 2016[61]
Declined

Results

2018 Iowa's 4th congressional district Democratic primary results by county:
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic J. D. Scholten 14,733 51.26
Democratic Leann Jacobsen 9,176 31.92
Democratic John Paschen 4,806 16.72
Democratic Write-ins 29 0.10
Total votes 28,744 100

Results

2018 Iowa's 4th congressional district Republican primary results by county:
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve King (incumbent) 28,053 74.74
Republican Cyndi Hanson 9,437 25.14
Republican Write-ins 44 0.12
Total votes 37,534 100

General election

The election on November 6, 2018, was between Republican Steve King and Democrat J. D. Scholten. King declined to debate Scholten.[64][65] King won by the slimmest margin of victory in his congressional electoral career.[66]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Lean R October 31, 2018
Inside Elections[16] Likely R September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Likely R October 4, 2018
Daily Kos[18] Safe R October 5, 2018
Fox News[19] Lean R October 31, 2018
CNN[20] Likely R October 31, 2018
RealClearPolitics[21] Safe R October 31, 2018
The New York Times[22] Lean R October 31, 2018
Politico[23] Likely R October 31, 2018

Polling

Poll source Dates
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
King (R)
J.D.
Scholten (D)
Other Undecided
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 31 – November 4, 2018 423 ± 5.0% 47% 42% 1% 9%
Emerson College October 29 – November 1, 2018 356 ± 5.5% 51% 42% 4%
Change Research (D) October 27–29, 2018 631 45% 44%
WPA Intelligence (R-King) October 22–24, 2018 401 ± 4.9% 52% 34% 3% 11%
Expedition Strategies (D-Scholten) September 5–9, 2018 380 ± 5.0% 43% 37%
Emerson College September 6–8, 2018 240 ± 6.5% 41% 31% 16%

Results

2018 Iowa's 4th congressional district results by county:
Iowa's 4th congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve King (incumbent) 157,676 50.3
Democratic J. D. Scholten 147,246 47.0
Libertarian Charles Aldrich 6,161 2.0
Independent Edward Peterson 1,962 0.6
Write-in 206 0.0
Total votes 313,256 100.0
Republican hold

References

  1. Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Retrieved April 27, 2019.
  2. "Morning Digest: Facing reality, Pat McCrory finally concedes North Carolina governor's race". Daily Kos Elections. December 6, 2016. Retrieved January 18, 2017.
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  4. "Stacey Walker may run for Congress in IA-01". Bleeding Heartland. June 13, 2017. Retrieved June 13, 2017.
  5. James Q. Lynch (July 10, 2017). "Thomas Heckroth joins field of candidates seeking to unseat U.S. Rep. Rod Blum". Mason City Globe Gazette. Retrieved July 10, 2017.
  6. James Q. Lynch (May 30, 2017). "Cedar Rapids engineer Courtney Rowe joins 1st District Democratic race". The Gazette. Retrieved May 31, 2017.
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  8. Steele, Ron (September 21, 2017). "Senator Danielson says he will not run for Congress in 2018". KWWL. Archived from the original on September 22, 2017. Retrieved September 21, 2017.
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  26. Christopher Peters announces run for U.S. Congress, daily-iowan.Com, 2017/07/19.
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  32. Daniel Clark (I) with 2%, Mark Strauss (L) with 1%
  33. Pfannenstiel, Brianne (June 2, 2017). "Cynthia Axne announces candidacy challenging David Young". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved June 2, 2017.
  34. https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/candidates/primarycandidatelist.pdf
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  38. Noble, Jason (July 5, 2017). "Real estate executive Theresa Greenfield joins 3rd District race for Congress". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved July 5, 2017.
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  41. "Iowa Congressional Candidate Drops Out of Race". whotv.com. March 17, 2018.
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  46. Obradovich, Katie (March 1, 2017). "Democrat Mike Sherzan to run for Congress in Iowa's 3rd District". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 1, 2017.
  47. "IA-03: Mike Sherzan is out, Pete D'Alessandro to decide soon". Bleeding Heartland. April 13, 2017. Retrieved June 16, 2017.
  48. "Who's endorsed the seven Democrats running for Congress in IA-03 - Bleeding Heartland". January 11, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  49. "Ben Jacobs on Twitter". Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  50. "National Nurses United Endorses Cathy Glasson for Governor and Pete D'Alessandro for Congress". National Nurses United. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  51. "Pete D'Alessandro". Our Revolution. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  52. "Bernie Sanders endorses Pete D'Alessandro in Iowa's 3rd District race". Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  53. "Bernie's with Pete: Add your name". Retrieved August 29, 2018.
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  55. Koss, Emily (June 2, 2017). "Steve King Running for Another Term in Congress". WHO-DT. Retrieved June 2, 2017.
  56. Cauthron, Randy M. (August 10, 2017). "'Anybody with a strong vision can win here'". Spencer Daily Reporter. Retrieved August 10, 2017.
  57. Cannon, Austin (September 18, 2017). "Ames physician to run for Congress". Ames Tribune. Retrieved September 21, 2017.
  58. Noble, Jason (July 25, 2017). "Former Sioux City baseball player J.D. Scholten to run for Congress in Iowa's 4th". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved July 25, 2017.
  59. Petroski, William (August 21, 2017). "Dahl to seek Democratic nomination for Iowa's 4th District Congress seat". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved August 21, 2017.
  60. "Kim Weaver withdraws her candidacy in Iowa's 4th District race for Congress". Des Moines Register. Retrieved August 17, 2017.
  61. Rynard, Pat (April 26, 2017). "Dirk Deam Passes On 4th District, Fred Hubbell Rumors Heat Up". Iowa Starting Line. Retrieved August 17, 2017.
  62. Hayworth, Bret (May 1, 2017). "Sioux City's Hall mulls run for governor". Sioux City Journal. Retrieved May 12, 2017.
  63. "Is Steve King in trouble? Democrat J.D. Scholten bets hustle and grit are keys to upset". Des Moines Register. Retrieved October 28, 2018.
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  65. "Steve King, scourge of immigrants, squeaks out a win". www.yahoo.com.
Official campaign websites for first district candidates
Official campaign websites for second district candidates
Official campaign websites for third district candidates
Official campaign websites for fourth district candidates
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