2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia

The 2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia
November 6, 2018
Turnout47.04%
 
Nominee Joe Manchin Patrick Morrisey
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 290,510 271,113
Percentage 49.57% 46.26%
County results
Manchin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Morrisey:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Joe Manchin
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Joe Manchin
Democratic

Elections in West Virginia
Federal elections
Presidential Elections
Presidential Primaries
U.S. Senate Elections
U.S. House Elections
Special elections
State government
General elections
Gubernatorial elections
Secretary of State elections
Senate elections
House of Delegates elections

On May 8, 2018, the Republican primary voters of the state nominated West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey as the Republican candidate.[1] In the general election, incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Manchin defeated Morrisey and was elected to a second full term, albeit by a margin much narrower than his previous election in 2012.[2]

Background

West Virginia was once a Democratic stronghold at the state and federal level, but has been rapidly shifting towards the Republican Party since 2000. In 2008, John McCain defeated Barack Obama 55–42%. In 2012, Mitt Romney defeated President Obama 62–35%. Romney won every single county. In 2016, Donald Trump won the state by a greater than 40-point margin against Hillary Clinton (68–26%), with Clinton's performance the worst by either party in the state's history. Trump won every county in the state as well.

Concurrent with President Trump's landslide victory in the state, Democratic businessman Jim Justice won the gubernatorial election with 49% of the vote but changed his party affiliation back to Republican within a year (Justice had previously been a Republican prior to running as a Democrat for governor). Democrats also lost almost all of the statewide offices they held except for State Treasurer John Perdue who was reelected. In 2012, which was Senator Joe Manchin’s second most recent statewide election, he won with just over 60% of the vote against perennial candidate John Raese.

These Republican leanings resulted in Manchin being ranked by many outlets to be one of the most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection. President Trump headlined 3 rallies on behalf of his opponent, Patrick Morrisey in the state. Manchin's vote to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh in his highly contentious confirmation hearing, making him the only Democrat to do so, garnered national attention and backlash from members of his own party just weeks before the midterm elections.[3]

Democratic primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements
Paula Jean Swearengin
Individuals
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Joe
Manchin		 Paula Jean
Swearengin		 Undecided
SurveyMonkey (D-Swearengin) September 2017 46% 8% 38%

Results
Results by county:
Democratic primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joe Manchin (incumbent) 112,658 69.86%
Democratic Paula Jean Swearengin 48,594 30.14%
Total votes 161,252 100%

Republican primary

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary

Declined

Endorsements
Evan Jenkins
State officials
Organizations

Debates
Host
network		 Date Link(s) Participants
Evan
Jenkins		 Patrick
Morrisey		 Don
Blankenship		 Bo
Copley		 Jack
Newbrough		 Tom
Willis
Fox News May 1, 2018 [30] Invited Invited Invited – – –
WVPB April 23, 2018 [31] Invited Invited Invited Invited Invited Invited

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Don
Blankenship		 Evan
Jenkins		 Patrick
Morrisey		 Other Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Morrisey) April 22–23, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 15% 26% 28% – 18%
Fox News April 18–22, 2018 985 ± 3.0% 16% 25% 21% 8%[32] 24%
National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC) April 17–19, 2018 411 ± 4.9% 12% 20% 24% 5%[33] 39%
Osage Research (R-Morrisey) March 13, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 23% 17% 24% 4%[34] –
Harper Polling (R-Jenkins) March 5–6, 2018 400 – 27% 29% 19% 10%[35] 15%
Harper Polling (R-Jenkins) February 5–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 18% 33% 25% 12% 12%
– 42% 36% – 22%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-35th PAC) October 19–22, 2017 400 ± 4.9% – 34% 40% – 26%

Results
Results by county:
Republican primary results[36]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Patrick Morrisey 48,007 34.90%
Republican Evan Jenkins 40,185 29.21%
Republican Don Blankenship 27,478 19.97%
Republican Tom Willis 13,540 9.84%
Republican Bo Copley 4,248 3.09%
Republican Jack Newbrough 4,115 2.99%
Total votes 137,573 100%

Libertarian Party

Nominated

Constitution Party

Denied ballot access
  • Don Blankenship, former chairman and CEO of Massey Energy. Observers noted that he would be ineligible to run due to West Virginia's sore-loser law which states that the loser of a partisan primary election cannot appear on the ballot as an independent or with another political party in the general election.[38] Blankenship was eligible to run as a write-in candidate.[39] Secretary of State Mac Warner denied ballot access to Blankenship's campaign on July 26, citing West Virginia's "sore loser" law. After a lawsuit, the Supreme Court of Appeals of West Virginia ordered Warner to deny Blankenship ballot access on August 29, 2018.[40]

Endorsements
Don Blankenship
Organizations

General election

Candidates

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[43] Lean D October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[44] Tilt D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] Lean D November 5, 2018
CNN[46] Lean D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[47] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[48] Lean D November 5, 2018
Fox News[49] Lean D November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[50] Likely D November 6, 2018

Endorsements
Joe Manchin (D)
U.S. Senators
Labor unions
Organizations
Other Individuals
Newspapers
  • The Sunday News-Register[63]
Patrick Morrisey (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
State Senators
State Delegates
Organizations
Other individuals
Newspapers

Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of Sep 30, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Joe Manchin (D) $8,872,162 $6,459,930 $4,200,530
Patrick Morrisey (R) $4,943,056 $3,315,300 $1,627,756
Source: Federal Election Commission[94]

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Manchin (D)		 Patrick
Morrisey (R)		 Rusty
Hollen (L)		 Other Undecided
Emerson College October 28–31, 2018 1,013 ± 3.2% 47% 42% 3% – 8%
Research America Inc. October 19–30, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 45% 40% 11% – 5%
Strategic Research Associates October 12–19, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 52% 36% 4% – 8%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-NRSC) October 16–18, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 42% 44% 3% – 12%
45% 47% – – 8%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–15, 2018 789 ± 3.5% 53% 47% – – –
The Polling Company (R-Citizens United) October 11–13, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 45% – 2% 3%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-NRSC) October 7–9, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 40% 8% – –
Strategic Research Associates September 17–26, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 46% 38% 3% – 13%
1892 Polling (R-Morrisey) September 24–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 45% 45% – – 10%
The Tarrance Group (R-SLF) September 23–25, 2018 612 ± 4.1% 47% 43% 5% – 5%
Global Strategy Group (D-Manchin) September 19–23, 2018 601 ± 4.0% 48% 36% 4% – –
Emerson College September 13–15, 2018 825 ± 3.5% 45% 33% – 6% 16%
Harper Polling (R-35th PAC) August 23–26, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 47% 41% – – 12%
Research America Inc. August 16–26, 2018 404 ± 4.9% 46% 38% – – 16%
Trafalgar Group (R) July 13–16, 2018 1,158 ± 2.9% 50% 40% 2% – 8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 892 ± 5.5% 53% 40% – – 6%
Monmouth University June 14–19, 2018 653 ± 3.8% 49% 42% – 3% 6%
Public Policy Polling June 12–13, 2018 633 – 49% 42% – – 9%
Hart Research Associates (D-DSCC) May 15–16, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 52% 40% – – –
Global Strategy Group (D-Manchin) May 13–16, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 50% 42% – – –
47% 40% 4% – –
WPA Intelligence (R) May 10, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 44% 46% – – 11%
Zogby Analytics September 27–30, 2017 320 ± 5.5% 45% 38% – – 17%
Research America Inc. August 11–20, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 51% 37% – – 12%
Harper Polling November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 57% 35% – – 8%

Results
United States Senate election in West Virginia, 2018[95]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Manchin (incumbent) 290,510 49.57% -11.0%
Republican Patrick Morrisey 271,113 46.26% +9.79%
Libertarian Rusty Hollen 24,411 4.17% N/A
Total votes 586,034 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Results by county

All results from the office of the Secretary of State of West Virginia.[96]

CountyCandidateTotal
votes
Joe Manchin Patrick Morrisey Rusty Hollen
% Votes % Votes % Votes
Barbour 42.98% 2,121 51.91% 2,562 5.11% 252 4,935
Berkeley 42.63% 14,508 53.21% 18,111 4.16% 1,416 34,035
Boone 57.12% 3,894 39.75% 2,710 3.12% 213 6,817
Braxton 51.24% 2,148 45.01% 1,887 3.75% 157 4,192
Brooke 50.93% 3,987 44.88% 3,513 4.19% 328 7,828
Cabell 58.18% 16,909 38.77% 11,267 3.05% 885 29,061
Calhoun 45.34% 967 49.93% 1,065 4.74% 101 2,133
Clay 46.92% 1,141 49.22% 1,197 3.87% 94 2,432
Doddridge 33.77% 746 61.20% 1,352 5.02% 111 2,209
Fayette 53.19% 6,502 42.22% 5,160 4.59% 561 12,223
Gilmer 47.22% 944 46.47% 929 6.30% 126 1,999
Grant 24.04% 935 72.49% 2,820 3.47% 135 3,890
Greenbrier 50.78% 6,201 45.55% 5,563 3.67% 448 12,212
Hampshire 33.80% 2,325 62.71% 4,313 3.49% 240 6,878
Hancock 46.53% 4,707 49.06% 4,963 4.42% 447 10,117
Hardy 41.41% 1,880 54.34% 2,467 4.25% 193 4,540
Harrison 51.05% 11,491 42.25% 9,512 6.70% 1,508 22,511
Jackson 47.89% 4,890 48.61% 4,964 3.50% 357 10,211
Jefferson 51.32% 10,666 45.04% 9,360 3.64% 756 20,782
Kanawha 61.58% 39,333 35.27% 22,527 3.16% 2,018 63,878
Lewis 41.64% 2,326 51.54% 2,879 6.82% 381 5,586
Lincoln 51.40% 2,899 45.27% 2,553 3.33% 188 5,640
Logan 47.74% 4,574 49.13% 4,708 3.13% 300 9,582
Marion 56.23% 10,889 37.59% 7,280 6.18% 1,197 19,366
Marshall 50.84% 5,485 45.12% 4,868 4.04% 436 10,789
Mason 51.06% 4,270 45.50% 3,805 3.44% 288 8,363
McDowell 48.67% 2,222 48.15% 2,198 3.18% 145 4,565
Mercer 41.19% 7,430 55.62% 10,033 3.20% 577 18,040
Mineral 34.79% 3,108 61.84% 5,525 3.37% 301 8,934
Mingo 42.13% 2,929 55.02% 3,825 2.85% 198 6,952
Monongalia 58.20% 18,010 35.28% 10,918 6.52% 2,019 30,947
Monroe 43.09% 2,125 53.61% 2,644 3.30% 163 4,932
Morgan 34.54% 2,143 60.98% 3,783 4.48% 278 6,204
Nicholas 45.75% 3,588 50.34% 3,948 3.91% 307 7,843
Ohio 55.18% 8,731 41.64% 6,588 3.19% 504 15,823
Pendleton 37.65% 948 58.70% 1,478 3.65% 92 2,518
Pleasants 45.88% 1,157 50.20% 1,266 3.93% 99 2,522
Pocahontas 44.59% 1,269 49.58% 1,411 5.83% 166 2,846
Preston 35.56% 3,686 57.34% 5,943 7.10% 736 10,365
Putnam 49.31% 10,513 47.33% 10,090 3.36% 716 21,319
Raleigh 43.86% 10,581 52.31% 12,620 3.84% 926 24,127
Randolph 50.27% 4,472 45.16% 4,017 4.58% 407 8,896
Ritchie 33.85% 1,082 61.36% 1,961 4.79% 153 3,196
Roane 51.30% 2,165 45.00% 1,899 3.70% 156 4,220
Summers 50.62% 2,069 45.71% 1,868 3.67% 150 4,087
Taylor 44.91% 2,376 49.94% 2,642 5.14% 272 5,290
Tucker 46.90% 1,469 47.96% 1,502 5.14% 161 3,132
Tyler 38.00% 1,065 57.19% 1,603 4.82% 135 2,803
Upshur 41.17% 3,102 53.23% 4,010 5.60% 422 7,534
Wayne 50.34% 6,395 46.87% 5,954 2.79% 355 12,704
Webster 45.03% 1,033 48.82% 1,120 6.15% 141 2,294
Wetzel 50.91% 2,518 43.17% 2,135 5.92% 293 4,946
Wirt 42.22% 790 53.71% 1,005 4.06% 76 1,871
Wood 48.88% 14,189 47.19% 13,696 3.93% 1,141 29,026
Wyoming 44.27% 2,607 52.57% 3,096 3.16% 186 5,889

References
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  35. Tom Willis and Jack Newbrough with 4 percent; Bo Copley with 2 percent
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  83. Students For Trump. "Liberal Joe Manchin has been deceiving the people of West Virginia for years!He supported Obama and Crooked Hillary,yet now supports Trump's policies when it is convenient for him.West Virginia deserves a Senator that shares their values! Elect @morriseywv @DonaldJTrumpJr". Twitter.
  84. "Republican Jewish Coalition launches first wave of midterm endorsements". NBCNews.com. July 23, 2018.
  85. "Pro-Life Group Endorses Patrick Morrisey in West Virginia Over "Pro-Life" Senator Joe Manchin". LifeNews.com. July 25, 2018.
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  90. "Dinesh D'Souza on Twitter".
  91. Ben Kamisar (April 27, 2018). "Gorka backs W.Va. attorney general in GOP Senate bid". The Hill.
  92. Donald Trump Jr. "He voted with Obama 83% of the time, sponsored gun control legislation and voted for excessive regulation. He's about as far from #maga as it gets. Lying about it now won't help. Vote @MorriseyWV for someone who will support @realDonaldTrump #WV #wvpol". Twitter.
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Official campaign websites
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