2018 United States Senate election in Texas

The 2018 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives in additional states. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz ran successfully for re-election to a second term against Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke. The primary for all parties was held on March 6, 2018, making it the first primary of the 2018 season.[2] As Cruz and O'Rourke both won majorities in their primaries, they did not participate in the May 22 runoff primary that was held for some nominations in Texas.[3]

2018 United States Senate election in Texas
November 6, 2018
Turnout53.01% (of registered voters)
42.07% (of voting age population)[1]
 
Nominee Ted Cruz Beto O'Rourke
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 4,260,553 4,045,632
Percentage 50.9% 48.3%
County results
Cruz:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90–100%
O'Rourke:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Ted Cruz
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Ted Cruz
Republican

Elections in Texas
Federal government
Presidential elections
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
Special elections
State government
Gubernatorial elections
Legislative elections
Constitutional amendments
General elections
Austin
Mayoral elections
Corpus Christi
Mayoral elections
Dallas–Fort Worth
Arlington mayoral elections
Dallas mayoral elections
Fort Worth mayoral elections
Garland mayoral elections
Plano municipal elections
El Paso
Mayoral elections
Other municipal offices
Houston
Mayoral elections
Municipal elections
Laredo
Mayoral elections
Lubbock
Mayoral elections
San Antonio
Mayoral elections
Government

No Democrat has won a general election for statewide office in Texas since Bob Bullock was reelected as lieutenant governor in 1994, with election forecasters declaring it a safe Republican seat at the beginning of the 2018 cycle.[4] However, O'Rourke gradually closed the gap,[5] and leading up to the election, the race was considered unexpectedly competitive.[6]

On Election Day, Cruz defeated O'Rourke[7] by a margin of 50.9 to 48.3 percent; the race was the closest U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1978.[8]

Background
Main article: Politics of Texas

In 2012, after a stunning upset victory in the Republican primary, then-Solicitor General of Texas Ted Cruz defeated former member of the Texas House of Representatives Paul Sadler by a 16-point margin (56%–40%). Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. As conservatives began turning to the Republican Party in once strongly Democratic areas, Democratic voters became concentrated in Southern Texas (which hold majority minority counties) and large metropolitan cities, such as Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas, as well as the far western majority-minority city of El Paso, which O'Rourke represented in the U.S. House.

Since 1990, Texas has voted for Republican statewide candidates in all elections, whether it be presidential, gubernatorial, or senatorial, often by large margins. In 1998, Governor George W. Bush won re-election by 37 points over his Democratic challenger, Garry Mauro. In 2000, Governor Bush won Texas by 21 points over Vice President Al Gore. In 2004, President Bush won Texas over Senator John Kerry by 23 points, winning rural areas by landslide margins and capturing urban zones. Democrat Barack Obama was defeated by margins of 12 points in 2008, against John McCain, and 16 points in 2012, against Mitt Romney, respectively. However, in 2016, Donald Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton by only a 9-point margin, demonstrating a possible shift away from the Safe Republican status it had held for over a decade. This has led Democrats to begin targeting Texas as a potential future swing state. It should also be noted that Ted Cruz defeated Donald Trump in the Texas Republican primary for U.S. President in 2016.

As of June 2018, Senator Cruz held a 49%–44% approval rating among Texans in a state Donald Trump won by 9 points against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Among groups that tend to affiliate themselves more with the Democratic Party, Senator Cruz held a 29% approval rating among Hispanics, 37% among females, and 42% among college-educated voters.[9]

Republican primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Failed to qualify
  • Thomas Dillingham, businessman[16]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements
Bruce Jacobson
Individuals
Stefano de Stefano
Media

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Ted
Cruz		 Stefano
de Stefano		 Bruce
Jacobson		 Mary
Miller		 Geraldine
Sam		 Undecided
Dixie Strategies February 22–23, 2018 – ± 4.7% 73% 1% 2% 2% 1% 21%
University of Texas February 1–12, 2018 612 ± 5.3% 91% 1% 3% 3% 2% –

Results
County results of the Republican primary for Class 1 United States Senate in Texas, 2018
Republican primary results[29]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ted Cruz (incumbent) 1,322,724 85.36%
Republican Mary Miller 94,715 6.11%
Republican Bruce Jacobson Jr. 64,791 4.18%
Republican Stefano de Stefano 44,456 2.87%
Republican Geraldine Sam 22,887 1.48%
Total votes 1,549,573 100%

Democratic primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements
Beto O'Rourke
Newspapers
Organizations
Sema Hernandez
Individuals

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Sema
Hernandez		 Edward
Kimbrough		 Beto
O'Rourke		 Undecided
Dixie Strategies February 22–23, 2018 – ± 5.7% 6% 4% 38% 53%
University of Texas February 1–12, 2018 453 ± 7.4% 19% 8% 73% –

Results
County results of the Democratic primary for Class 1 United States Senate in Texas, 2018
Democratic primary results[46]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Beto O'Rourke 644,632 61.81%
Democratic Sema Hernandez 247,424 23.72%
Democratic Edward Kimbrough 150,858 14.47%
Total votes 1,042,914 100%

Libertarian nomination

Nominated

Independents

Declared

Declined

Notes
  1. American Citizen Party does not have ballot access. Appears on ballot as "Independent."[53]

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[56] Tossup October 5, 2018
Inside Elections[57] Likely R September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[58] Lean R October 5, 2018
CNN[59] Lean R October 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[60] Lean R October 3, 2018
Daily Kos[61] Lean R October 5, 2018
Fox News[62][lower-alpha 1] Lean R October 30, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Debates

Endorsements
Ted Cruz (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
  • Kevin Brady, U.S. Representative (TX 8th District) and Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee[67]
  • Bill Flores, U.S. Representative (TX 17th District)[68]
State officials
Texas State Senators
Texas State Representatives
Local Officeholders
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Beto O'Rourke (D)
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Texas State Senators
  • Wendy Davis, former State Senator (D-10th District) and 2014 Democratic nominee for Governor of Texas[115]
Texas State Representatives
  • Chris Turner, State Representative (101st District) and Chair of the Texas House Democratic Caucus[116]
Local Officeholders
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Fundraising

In the third quarter of 2018, O'Rourke raised $38.1 million. This amount was the largest quarterly total raised by a U.S. Senate candidate[199] until Jaime Harrison raised $57 million in the third quarter of 2020 in the South Carolina election.[200] Cruz and O'Rourke combined to raise a record-setting total of $126 million during the 2018 campaign.[201][202]

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Ted Cruz (R) $45,668,718 $45,990,176 $157,959
Beto O'Rourke (D) $80,344,836 $80,458,720 $284,816
Neal Dikeman (L) $33,732 $33,398 $333
Source: Federal Election Commission[202]

Polling


Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Ted
Cruz (R)		 Beto
O'Rourke (D)		 Neal
Dikeman (L)		 Other Undecided
Trafalgar Group (R) November 3–5, 2018 2,135 ± 2.1% 52% 43% – 1% 4%
Change Research (D-Reason to Believe PAC) November 1–2, 2018 1,211 – 49% 49% 1% – –
Emerson College October 28–30, 2018 781 ± 3.7% 50% 47% 1% – 2%
Quinnipiac University October 22–28, 2018 1,078 ± 3.5% 51% 46% – 1% 3%
University of Texas Tyler October 15–28, 2018 905 LV – 47% 43% – 4% 6%
1,033 RV ± 3.0% 47% 42% – 4% 8%
Dixie Strategies October 25–26, 2018 588 ± 4.0% 52% 42% – – 5%
GBA Strategies (D-End Citizens United) October 18–21, 2018 1,000 ± 4.0% 50% 46% 2% – 2%
University of Texas/YouGov October 15–21, 2018 927 ± 3.2% 51% 45% 2% 2% –
Ipsos October 12–18, 2018 1,298 ± 3.2% 49% 44% – 3% 1%
Tulchin Research (D-MoveOn) October 10–14, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 45% 3% – 3%
CNN/SSRS October 9–13, 2018 716 LV ± 4.5% 52% 45% – 0% 2%
862 RV ± 4.1% 50% 45% – 0% 3%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) October 8–13, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 52% 43% 1% – 4%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–11, 2018 800 ± 3.6% 51% 43% 1% – 5%
Quinnipiac University October 3–9, 2018 730 ± 4.4% 54% 45% – 0% 2%
YouGov October 2–5, 2018 881 – 50% 44% – 2% 4%
Emerson College October 1–5, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 47% 42% – 3% 8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) September 19–20, 2018 613 ± 4.0% 48% 45% – – 8%
Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United) September 19–20, 2018 603 ± 4.0% 49% 46% – – 5%
Vox Populi Polling September 16–18, 2018 508 ± 4.4% 50% 50% – – –
Quinnipiac University September 11–17, 2018 807 ± 4.1% 54% 45% – 0% 1%
Chism Strategies (D-Reform Austin) September 11–12, 2018 1,161 ± 3.0% 49% 45% – – 5%
Ipsos September 6–14, 2018 992 ± 4.0% 45% 47% – 3% 5%
Crosswind Media & Public Relations September 6–9, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 47% 44% – – –
Dixie Strategies September 6–7, 2018 519 ± 4.3% 46% 42% 1% – 11%
Emerson College August 22–25, 2018 550 ± 4.4% 38% 37% – 4% 21%
NBC News/Marist August 12–16, 2018 759 ± 3.8% 49% 45% – 1% 6%
Civiqs[lower-alpha 1] August 8–11, 2018 –[lower-alpha 2] – 47% 48% – – –
Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United) August 1–2, 2018 797 ± 3.5% 46% 42% – – –
Quinnipiac University July 26–31, 2018 1,118 ± 3.5% 49% 43% – 0% 6%
Texas Lyceum July 9–26, 2018 441 LV ± 4.7% 41% 39% 1% – 19%
806 RV ± 3.5% 36% 34% 3% – 24%
Gravis Marketing July 3–7, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 51% 42% – – 7%
YouGov June 19–22, 2018 821 LV – 50% 40% – 3% 7%
1,025 RV ± 3.6% 44% 36% – 3% 13%
University of Texas/YouGov June 8–17, 2018 1,200 ± 2.8% 41% 36% 2% 3% 17%
GQR Research (D-End Citizens United) May 29 – June 5, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 49% 43% – – 8%
Quinnipiac University May 23–29, 2018 961 ± 3.8% 50% 39% – 0% 9%
Baselice & Associates (R-TLRPAC) May 21–28, 2018 601 ± 4.1% 48% 36% 3% 1% 11%
Public Policy Polling (D-Giffords) May 21–22, 2018 861 ± 3.3% 48% 42% – – 10%
JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group) May 19–21, 2018 575 ± 4.1% 47% 40% – 6%[203] 7%
Quinnipiac University April 12–17, 2018 1,029 ± 3.6% 47% 44% – 1% 8%
Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United) January 17–18, 2018 757 ± 3.6% 45% 37% – – 18%
WPA Intelligence (R-Cruz) December 12–14, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 52% 34% – 1% 13%
Texas Lyceum April 3–9, 2017 1,000 ± 3.1% 30% 30% – 3% 37%

Results

On November 6, 2018, Ted Cruz defeated Beto O'Rourke. However, O'Rourke gave Democrats their best performance in a Texas statewide election since Ann Richards was elected governor in 1990.[204] In addition, O'Rourke flipped several counties in Texas that Donald Trump carried in 2016, including Williamson (includes Round Rock and Georgetown), historically conservative Tarrant (includes Fort Worth and suburbs within the DFW metroplex), Jefferson (includes Beaumont and Port Arthur), Nueces (includes Corpus Christi), sparsely populated Brewster (includes Big Bend National Park), and Hays (includes San Marcos). Cruz only flipped one county that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, sparsely populated Kenedy (coastal region south of Corpus Christi).

United States Senate election in Texas, 2018[205]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Ted Cruz (incumbent) 4,260,553 50.89% -5.57%
Democratic Beto O'Rourke 4,045,632 48.33% +7.71%
Libertarian Neal Dikeman 65,470 0.78% -1.28%
Total votes 8,371,655 100% N/A
Republican hold

By congressional district

Cruz won 20 of 36 congressional districts [206]

District Cruz O'Rourke Representative
1st 71% 28% Louie Gohmert
2nd 50% 49% Ted Poe
Dan Crenshaw
3rd 51% 48% Sam Johnson
Van Taylor
4th 74% 25% John Ratcliffe
5th 60% 39% Jeb Hensarling
Lance Gooden
6th 51% 48% Joe Barton
Ron Wright
7th 46% 53% John Culberson
Lizzie Fletcher
8th 71% 28% Kevin Brady
9th 19% 80% Al Green
10th 49.4% 49.6% Michael McCaul
11th 78% 21% Mike Conaway
12th 60% 39% Kay Granger
13th 79% 20% Mac Thornberry
14th 58% 41% Randy Weber
15th 42% 57% Vicente Gonzalez
16th 26% 73% Beto O'Rourke
Veronica Escobar
17th 54% 45% Bill Flores
18th 20% 79% Sheila Jackson Lee
19th 71% 28% Jodey Arrington
20th 33% 66% Joaquín Castro
21st 49.6% 49.5% Lamar Smith
Chip Roy
22nd 49.9% 49.3% Pete Olson
23rd 47% 52% Will Hurd
24th 48% 51% Kenny Marchant
25th 52% 47% Roger Williams
26th 57% 42% Michael Burgess
27th 60% 39% Michael Cloud
28th 40% 59% Henry Cuellar
29th 25% 74% Gene Green
Sylvia Garcia
30th 18% 82% Eddie Bernice Johnson
31st 50% 48% John Carter
32nd 44% 55% Pete Sessions
Colin Allred
33rd 22% 77% Marc Veasey
34th 42% 58% Filemon Vela Jr.
35th 27% 72% Lloyd Doggett
36th 71% 28% Brian Babin

Notes
  1. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  2. Not yet released

References
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  112. @BetoORourke (June 10, 2018). "Great being joined by Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson and everyone who came out" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  113. @BetoORourke (October 25, 2018). "It's been amazing watching my friend @betoorourke visit every county in Texas—Beto is proudly powered by people, not PACs or special interests. Go Beto!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  114. @LloydDoggettTX (October 22, 2018). "Texans believe in a hopeful vision for the future, but Trump and Ted Cruz only provide fear and anger. During early voting, support Democrats like Beto who advocate for meaningful solutions on healthcare, immigration, social programs & economic opportunity" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  115. @WendyDavis (August 26, 2018). ".⁦@BetoORourke⁩ is as authentic as it gets. Every day he's speaking to what true TX values embody-that every voice matters & that everyone merits opportunity. You've seen that viral video. Now read this excellent article. Bye-bye ⁦@tedcruz⁩" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  160. Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018). "END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror. Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet). Retrieved October 20, 2018 – via Twitter.
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  165. "NEA Fund - Recommended Candidates". www.neafund.org.
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