2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota

The 2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] North Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota
November 3, 2020
Turnout62.65%[1]
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 235,595 114,902
Percentage 65.11% 31.76%
County Results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

 Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in North Dakota
Federal government
Presidential
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State government
General elections
Gubernatorial elections
Secretary of State elections
Ballot measures
2004
Constitutional Measure 1

Trump won North Dakota 65.1% to 31.7%, a margin of 33.4%, about 3 points down from his 36-point victory in 2016.

Analysis

North Dakota, a rural state covered in the Midwestern Plains, is one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation. It hasn't been won by a Democrat since 1964, and has only been competitive in three elections since: 1976, 1996 and 2008. A few prime reasons for its being is an easy target for Republicans include its older, majority-Caucasian populace; agribusiness; and the state's recent oil boom. In recent presidential elections, Bakken shale oil has been a major driver of conservative success in the state, as its economy is increasingly fueled by the oil boom.[4] The main oil boom has taken place in the western counties--perhaps Trump's main base. Trump signed executive orders on his first month in office, reviving the Keystone and Dakota Access Pipelines rejected by the Obama administration.[5]

Joe Biden won the same two counties Hillary Clinton won in 2016: the majority-Native American counties of Rolette and Sioux, both of which long being Democratic strongholds as a result. However, Biden only came up 2.7 points short of winning Cass County, which holds the state's largest city of Fargo, as compared to Clinton's 10.5-point loss in 2016. Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without winning Sargent County since FDR in 1944 and the first without Benson County, Ransom County and Steele County since JFK in 1960.

Caucuses

Democratic caucuses
Further information: 2020 North Dakota Democratic caucuses

The North Dakota Democratic–NPL Party held a firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020.

This section is an excerpt from 2020 North Dakota Democratic presidential caucuses[edit]
2020 North Dakota Democratic presidential caucuses[6]
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Bernie Sanders 7,682 53.3 8
Joe Biden 5,742 39.8 6
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn[lower-alpha 1]) 366 2.5
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn[lower-alpha 1]) 223 1.5
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn[lower-alpha 1]) 164 1.1
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn[lower-alpha 1]) 113 0.8
Tulsi Gabbard 89 0.6
Andrew Yang (withdrawn[lower-alpha 1]) 20 0.2
Tom Steyer (withdrawn[lower-alpha 1]) 6 0.0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn[lower-alpha 1]) 3 0.0
John Delaney (withdrawn[lower-alpha 1]) 3 0.0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn[lower-alpha 1]) 2 0.0
Total 14,413 100% 14

Republican caucuses

The North Dakota Republican Party held a non-binding firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020, with incumbent President Donald Trump running unopposed.[7][8]

The party will then formally select their 29 Republican National Convention delegates, unpledged to any particular candidate at the state party convention. The state party convention was originally scheduled for March 27–29, but due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic it was ultimately cancelled.[9][10]

Libertarian nominee
  • Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[11] Safe R November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[12] Safe R November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] Safe R November 3, 2020
Politico[14] Safe R November 3, 2020
RCP[15] Safe R November 3, 2020
Niskanen[16] Safe R November 3, 2020
CNN[17] Safe R November 3, 2020
The Economist[18] Safe R November 3, 2020
CBS News[19] Likely R November 3, 2020
270towin[20] Safe R November 3, 2020
ABC News[21] Safe R November 3, 2020
NPR[22] Likely R November 3, 2020
NBC News[23] Safe R November 3, 2020
538[24] Safe R November 3, 2020

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
270 to Win September 26 – October 17, 2020 October 19, 2020 38.0% 57.5% 4.5% Trump +19.5
FiveThirtyEight until October 25, 2020 October 27, 2020 38.2% 56.3% 5.5% Trump +18.1
Average 38.1% 56.9% 5.0% Trump +18.8

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 402 (LV) ± 7% 59%[lower-alpha 4] 39% - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 700 (LV) – 57% 42% - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 249 (LV) – 63% 34% - – 3%
DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First Sep 26–29, 2020 460 (A) ± 4.6% 51% 37% - 4%[lower-alpha 5] 7%
DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First Sep 12–16, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 56% 37% - 3%[lower-alpha 6] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 269 (LV) – 66% 32% - – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 261 (LV) – 63% 36% - – 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 88 (LV) – 71% 28% - – 1%
DFM Research Mar 3–5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 55% 38% - 2% 5%
DFM Research Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 59% 34% - 2% 5%
1892 Polling/Doug Burgum[upper-alpha 1] Jul 15–17, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 60% 34% - – –
DFM Research May 14–18, 2019 400 (A) ± 4.9% 54% 39% - 2% 5%
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Michael
Bloomberg (D)		 Other Undecided
DFM Research Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 59% 32% 1% 7%

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Other Undecided
DFM Research Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 59% 31% 2% 8%

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Amy
Klobuchar (D)		 Other Undecided
DFM Research Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 59% 33% 1% 7%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Other Undecided
DFM Research Mar 3–5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 33% 4% 4%
DFM Research Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 61% 32% 1% 5%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Other Undecided
DFM Research Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 62% 31% 2% 6%
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 403 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 36% – 17%

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[25]

Donald Trump and
Mike Pence
Republican Party		 Joe Biden and
Kamala Harris
Democratic Party		 Jo Jorgensen and
Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party
Sandy J. Boehler
Ray Holmberg
Robert Wefald		 Heidi Heitkamp
Bernice Knutson
Warren Larson		 Dustin Gawrylow
Martin J. Riske
Dylan Stuckey

Results
2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota[1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		235,595 65.11% +2.15%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris		 114,902 31.76% +4.53%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 9,393 2.60% -3.62%
Write-in 1,929 0.53% -1.33%
Total votes 361,819 100.00%

See also

Notes
  1. Candidate withdrew after early voting started.
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. "Other candidate" with 4%
  6. "Other candidate" with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Burgum's campaign

References
  1. "Statewide Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. November 12, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  2. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. Cohen, Micah (October 14, 2012). "An Extra Ingredient in North Dakota Politics: Oil". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
  5. Volcovici, Valerie (December 6, 2016). "Trump supports completion of Dakota Access Pipeline". Reuters. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
  6. "2020 Democratic Caucus Results". North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
  7. "6 states will vote in Tuesday's GOP presidential primary. Trump will win all 6". Vox. March 10, 2020.
  8. "North Dakota Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 4, 2020.
  9. "North Dakota GOP cancels state convention because of coronavirus threat". KFGO. March 18, 2020.
  10. "2020 State Convention – North Dakota Republican Party". Retrieved March 18, 2020.
  11. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  12. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  13. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  14. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  15. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  16. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  17. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  18. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  19. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  20. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  21. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  22. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  23. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  24. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  25. "Statewide Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.

Further reading
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