Opinion polling for the 2015 Canadian federal election, by constituency

Various polling organisations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2015 Canadian general election. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

Opinion polls have been conducted from the months following the previous general election held in May 2011, and have increased in frequency leading up to the general election.

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.

A total of 204 polls in 107 ridings across 9 provinces and 1 territory were conducted.

Constituency polls

Calgary Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 13, 2015HTML38193960±3.72 pp688IVR
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML47113930±4.3 pp531IVR
EnvironicsAugust 18, 2015PDF44173270±4.3 pp517IVR
2012 By-electionNovember 26, 2012HTML37433261±0.0 pp27,732Election
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML551519100±0.0 pp41,452Election

Calgary Confederation

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 14, 2015HTML37193860±3.7 pp679IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML521618140±0.0 pp50,770Election

Edmonton Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
ThinkHQOctober 15, 2015PDF36243342±4.3 pp517IVR
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 8, 2015PDF31382730±3.7 pp701IVR
Forum ResearchSeptember 25, 2015HTML40302740±5.0 pp524IVR
EnvironicsSeptember 16, 2015PDF39352250±4.2 pp547IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML46262441±0.0 pp43,093Election

Edmonton Griesbach

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsAugust 16, 2015PDF32481550±4.3 pp509IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML5337730±0.0 pp37,766Election

Edmonton Manning

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 16, 2015PDF45331840±4.3 pp512IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML5527936±0.0 pp34,180Election

Edmonton Mill Woods

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 8, 2015PDF39153970±3.73 pp684IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML59251231±0.0 pp35,454Election

Edmonton Riverbend

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 16, 2015PDF44341840±4.3 pp522IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML59211550±0.0 pp43,267Election

Edmonton West

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 16, 2015PDF48192940±3.9 pp618IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML64191340±0.0 pp43,267Election

Fort McMurray—Cold Lake

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 10, 2015HTML45153550±4.4 pp494IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML73131140±0.0 pp25,650Election

Lethbridge

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 13, 2015HTML56261340±3.81 pp657IVR
EnvironicsSeptember 17, 2015PDF48341450±3.8 pp639IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML5230954±0.0 pp41,165Election

St. Albert—Edmonton

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 13, 2015HTML43207228±3.74 pp681IVR
Forum ResearchSeptember 25, 2015HTML381910429±5.0 pp490IVR
EnvironicsSeptember 17, 2015PDF392015422±3.1 pp1,030IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML64201150±0.0 pp42,842Election

Yellowhead

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 10, 2015HTML63151533±4.1 pp569IVR
2014 By-electionNovember 17, 2014HTML63102053±0.0 pp12,601Election
Forum ResearchNovember 16, 2014PDF511324013±6.0 pp311IVR
Forum ResearchNovember 11, 2014PDF621216010±5.6 pp360IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML7813351±0.0 pp40,013Election

Burnaby North—Seymour

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 10, 2015HTML38262790±3.65 pp716IVR
Insights WestOctober 10, 2015HTML33362191±4.9 pp400Telephone
Insights WestSeptember 13, 2015HTML33372190±5.6 pp301Telephone
Insights WestMay 11, 2015PDF20468251±5.6 pp301Telephone
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML44351641±0.0 pp43,290Election

Cariboo—Prince George

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsOctober 11, 2015PDF30362950±4.4 pp500IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML5630562±0.0 pp43,239Election

Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsOctober 11, 2015PDF31342960±4.4 pp504IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML5631841±0.0 pp40,286Election

Courtenay—Alberni

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Insights WestOctober 10, 2015HTML323418151±4.9 pp400Telephone
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 8, 2015PDF303320160±3.76 pp672IVR
Insights WestSeptember 13, 2015HTML333913123±5.6 pp301Telephone
Insights WestMay 11, 2015PDF304214113±5.6 pp301Telephone
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML4541771±0.0 pp54,470Election

Cowichan—Malahat—Langford

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Insights WestOctober 5, 2015HTML283514194±4.9 pp400Telephone
Insights WestMay 11, 2015PDF284115105±5.6 pp302Telephone
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML4344670±0.0 pp47,766Election

Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Insights WestOctober 10, 2015HTML193920211±5.6 pp300Telephone
Insights WestSeptember 13, 2015HTML203919193±5.6 pp300Telephone
Insights WestMay 11, 2015PDF175014164±5.6 pp301Telephone
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML373910130±0.0 pp56,652Election

Fleetwood—Port Kells

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 10, 2015HTML35243560±3.8 pp661IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML48331630±0.0 pp34,582Election

Kootenay—Columbia

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 19, 2015HTML373715110±4.3 pp529IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML5039361±0.0 pp52,801Election

Nanaimo—Ladysmith

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Insights WestOctober 5, 2015HTML263518211±4.9 pp400Telephone
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML243417240±3.7 pp699IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML4045770±0.0 pp55,879Election

North Island—Powell River

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 19, 2015HTML274118140±4.2 pp556IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML4641651±0.0 pp50,897Election

North Okanagan—Shuswap

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsOctober 11, 2015PDF33372280±3.6 pp755IVR
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 10, 2015PDF45262450±4.1 pp567IVR
Oraclepoll ResearchOctober 6, 2015PDF38411290±5.5 pp312Telephone
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML55267110±0.0 pp56,921Election

North Vancouver

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Insights WestOctober 10, 2015HTML331141150±4.9 pp400Telephone
Insights WestSeptember 13, 2015HTML311441131±5.6 pp297Telephone
Insights WestJuly 7, 2015PDF302431141±5.6 pp305Telephone
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML48173051±0.0 pp50,306Election

Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML35411960±4.2 pp543IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML5535650±0.0 pp38,418Election

Port Moody—Coquitlam

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML34411970±4.3 pp529IVR
EnvironicsAugust 18, 2015PDF27541450±4.3 pp511IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML4640940±0.0 pp43,458Election

South Okanagan—West Kootenay

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Insights WestOctober 10, 2015HTML31362383±5.6 pp301Telephone
Insights WestSeptember 13, 2015HTML33421843±5.6 pp303Telephone
Insights WestJuly 7, 2015PDF25551162±5.6 pp302Telephone
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML3945781±0.0 pp56,652Election

Vancouver Granville

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsOctober 11, 2015PDF28333540±4.4 pp505IVR
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 8, 2015PDF20284490±3.8 pp665IVR
EnvironicsSeptember 21, 2015HTML29363060±4.2 pp541IVR
EnvironicsAugust 18, 2015PDF303624100±4.5 pp482IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML35243091±0.0 pp43,654Election

Vancouver South

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Insights WestOctober 10, 2015HTML33193881±5.6 pp301Telephone
Insights WestSeptember 13, 2015HTML27224083±5.6 pp303Telephone
Insights WestJuly 7, 2015PDF24303943±5.6 pp301Telephone
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML42213421±0.0 pp36,706Election

West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 10, 2015HTML321537160±3.76 pp673IVR
Insights WestOctober 10, 2015HTML311442130±4.9 pp403Telephone
Insights WestSeptember 13, 2015HTML302234112±5.6 pp302Telephone
EnvironicsAugust 16, 2015PDF232730190±4.1 pp582IVR
Insights WestJuly 7, 2015PDF302631121±5.6 pp301Telephone
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML46212481±0.0 pp52,062Election

Elmwood—Transcona

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML39372040±4.2 pp552IVR
EnvironicsAugust 16, 2015PDF30392560±4.3 pp517IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML4745530±0.0 pp34,287Election

Saint Boniface—Saint Vital

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 21, 2015HTML33253750±3.83 pp651IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML50163130±0.0 pp40,418Election

Winnipeg South Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML31233880±4.0 pp597IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML41183731±0.0 pp46,619Election

Fredericton

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsOctober 4, 2015HTML321443120±3.4 pp839IVR
EnvironicsSeptember 19, 2015PDF322037100±4.1 pp580IVR
EnvironicsAugust 16, 2015PDF292634120±3.5 pp799IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML47242441±0.0 pp38,772Election

Saint John—Rothesay

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 8, 2015PDF36263440±4.33 pp510IVR
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML38253340±3.7 pp623IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML50311631±0.0 pp35,964Election

Avalon

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 17, 2015HTML141943419±3.74 pp679IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML37293311±0.0 pp35,623Election

Central Nova

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML23205070±4.1 pp573IVR
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 17, 2015HTML36263080±3.82 pp652IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML55271440±0.0 pp38,878Election

Cumberland—Colchester

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML3275460±3.9 pp617IVR
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 17, 2015HTML33124870±3.79 pp660IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML53221851±0.0 pp38,878Election

Ajax

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 14, 2015HTML39203740±3.7 pp690IVR
Forum ResearchSeptember 11, 2015PDF35174620±4.0 pp425IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML44153830±0.0 pp44,166Election

Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Oraclepoll ResearchOctober 8, 2015HTML30452050±5.6 pp300Telephone
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML33501430±0.0 pp39,174Election

Brampton Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 8, 2015PDF40144150±3.8 pp653IVR
Forum ResearchOctober 2, 2015PDF39253240±5.0 pp456IVR
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 28, 2014PDF40243060±3.99 pp598IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML46232541±0.0 pp34,796Election

Brampton East

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 29, 2015HTML35243650±3.73pp684IVR
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 28, 2014PDF23383630±3.98 pp600IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML29383121±0.0 pp28,625Election

Brampton North

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 8, 2015PDF37164610±3.7 pp689IVR
Forum ResearchOctober 4, 2015PDF39243420±5.0 pp336IVR
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 28, 2014PDF42203350±3.99 pp600IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML49192840±0.0 pp39,812Election

Brampton South

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 28, 2014PDF40183930±3.99 pp599IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML45163521±0.0 pp35,560Election

Brampton West

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 28, 2014PDF40193820±3.99 pp600IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML42203621±0.0 pp28,505Election

Brantford—Brant

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML39302560±3.9 pp622IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML48291931±0.0 pp55,085Election

Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsOctober 11, 2015PDF41164040±3.2 pp966IVR
EnvironicsSeptember 21, 2015HTML43202990±3.1 pp1,022IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML561816101±0.0 pp51,054Election

Cambridge

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML43173460±4.2 pp552IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML53281541±0.0 pp44,827Election

Chatham-Kent—Leamington

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 29, 2015HTML45232740±3.88pp625IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML53271630±0.0 pp46,376Election

Don Valley West

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 29, 2015HTML35134740±3.72pp688IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML44114140±0.0 pp38,984Election

Eglinton—Lawrence

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsOctober 4, 2015HTML39144430±3.4 pp823IVR
Forum ResearchSeptember 21, 2015PDF38174420±4.0 pp634IVR
EnvironicsSeptember 19, 2015HTML35243740±4.1 pp565IVR
EnvironicsAugust 16, 2015PDF36253540±4.0 pp588IVR
Forum ResearchAugust 5, 2015HTML41203451±4.0 pp709IVR
Forum ResearchFebruary 13, 2015HTML49132870±4.0 pp659IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML47123830±0.0 pp48,389Election

Essex

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsOctober 4, 2015HTML38372240±3.8 pp655IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML48351420±0.0 pp50,219Election

Etobicoke Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Forum ResearchSeptember 11, 2015PDF42114331±3 pp885IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML42154130±0.0 pp49,685Election

Etobicoke—Lakeshore

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsOctober 4, 2015HTML36164340±3.8 pp665IVR
EnvironicsSeptember 19, 2015HTML38194030±4.2 pp537IVR
Forum ResearchSeptember 17, 2015PDF33224140±3 pp835IVR
EnvironicsAugust 16, 2015PDF31283650±4.2 pp544IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML40203540±0.0 pp50,920Election

Flamborough—Glanbrook

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 8, 2015PDF48142890±3.80 pp659IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML55231741±0.0 pp45,387Election

Guelph

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML251845120±4.0 pp601IVR
EnvironicsJuly 13, 2015HTML28382770±4.0 pp597IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML33174361±0.0 pp59,218Election

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 8, 2015PDF27165070±3.76 pp672IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML42282541±0.0 pp53,119Election

Kanata—Carleton

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsOctober 11, 2015PDF3985030±3.4 pp861IVR
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 4, 2015HTML4584340±3.89 pp630IVR
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML44133750±4.1 pp562IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML54152650±0.0 pp50,802Election

Kenora

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsOctober 5, 2015HTML40292840±3.8 pp647IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML47282231±0.0 pp24,586Election

Kingston and the Islands

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsJuly 13, 2015HTML23373650±4.0 pp563IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML34224040±0.0 pp56,663Election

Kitchener Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsOctober 11, 2015PDF28224640±3.4 pp856IVR
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML31303370±3.8 pp672IVR
EnvironicsAugust 16, 2015PDF29333170±3.9 pp625IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML40223251±0.0 pp46,998Election

London North Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsOctober 4, 2015HTML32154850±3.8 pp668IVR
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML35253550±4.2 pp540IVR
EnvironicsAugust 16, 2015PDF32273460±3.7 pp700IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML37243440±0.0 pp53,445Election

London West

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 8, 2015PDF33194260±3.75 pp678IVR
EnvironicsOctober 4, 2015HTML38203750±2.9 pp1,132IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML45252730±0.0 pp58,342Election

Markham—Stouffville

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Forum ResearchOctober 3, 2015PDF4065120±5.0 pp439IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML50172931±0.0 pp47,183Election

Mississauga Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Forum ResearchOctober 4, 2015PDF35164450±5.0 pp308IVR
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 28, 2014PDF36204130±3.99 pp600IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML42193720±0.0 pp42,677Election

Mississauga East—Cooksville

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 28, 2014PDF37194130±3.99 pp601IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML44183620±0.0 pp44,249Election

Mississauga—Erin Mills

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 28, 2014PDF41163940±3.99 pp600IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML47163430±0.0 pp46,468Election

Mississauga—Lakeshore

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Forum ResearchOctober 4, 2015PDF41124430±4.0 pp538IVR
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 28, 2014PDF32244230±3.99 pp600IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML47133700±0.0 pp51,746Election

Mississauga—Malton

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Forum ResearchOctober 2, 2015PDF29204452±5.0 pp335IVR
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 28, 2014PDF41144140±3.99 pp600IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML38233720±0.0 pp36,632Election

Mississauga—Streetsville

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 28, 2014PDF40164050±3.99 pp599IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML46153540±0.0 pp46,236Election

Nepean

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsOctober 11, 2015PDF40104740±3.2 pp1,032IVR
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 4, 2015HTML41134240±3.81 pp655IVR
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML40193480±4.1 pp569IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML51182740±0.0 pp51,130Election

Niagara Falls

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML42272560±4.2 pp557IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML53231940±0.0 pp53,980Election

Nickel Belt

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Oraclepoll ResearchOctober 8, 2015HTML14463550±5.6 pp300Telephone
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML28551430±0.0 pp44,148Election

Nipissing—Timiskaming

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Oraclepoll ResearchOctober 8, 2015HTML31164760±5.6 pp300Telephone
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML36213760±0.0 pp39,174Election

Oakville North—Burlington

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Forum ResearchMay 12, 2014PDF4284532±4.0 pp530IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML54162730±0.0 pp46,840Election

Orléans

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 29, 2015HTML33194080±3.8pp660IVR
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML36115130±4.1 pp567IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML45143830±0.0 pp64,007Election

Ottawa Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 4, 2015HTML22423060±3.79 pp685IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML22522051±0.0 pp64,689Election

Ottawa West—Nepean

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 4, 2015HTML29204740±3.72 pp661IVR
Forum ResearchSeptember 25, 2015PDF35154604±3.0pp1,083IVR
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML35203950±3.6 pp747IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML45203140±0.0 pp56,602Election

Perth—Wellington

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 8, 2015HTML36213580±3.8 pp652IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML54211852±0.0 pp46,401Election

Peterborough—Kawartha

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsOctober 11, 2015PDF34174630±3.4 pp859IVR
Forum ResearchSeptember 24, 2015PDF34243741±3.0 pp1294IVR
Nanos ResearchAugust 26, 2015HTML29274140±5.7 pp300Telephone
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML50252140±0.0 pp57,384Election

Sault Ste. Marie

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Oraclepoll ResearchOctober 7, 2015HTML36233560±5.6 pp300Telephone
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML31303460±3.9 pp632IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML40372020±0.0 pp40,390Election

Scarborough Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Forum ResearchOctober 3, 2015PDF36194320±5.0 pp458IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML35303230±0.0 pp36,811Election

Scarborough Southwest

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 29, 2015HTML21374030±3.83pp654IVR
Forum ResearchSeptember 22, 2015PDF27323551±4.0 pp608IVR
Forum ResearchApril 26, 2015HTML20344231±4.0 pp587IVR
Forum ResearchFebruary 13, 2015PDF27293941±4.0 pp557IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML32352940±0.0 pp39,379Election

Spadina—Fort York

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Forum ResearchOctober 1, 2015HTML17423750±5.0 pp461IVR
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 14, 2015HTML13453930±3.72 pp671IVR
Forum ResearchAugust 6, 2015PDF10572841±5.0 pp345IVR
Mainstreet ResearchJune 30, 2015HTML14443660±3.87 pp606IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML21502441±0.0 pp36,969Election

Sudbury

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Oraclepoll ResearchOctober 10, 2015HTML27383140±4.9 pp400Telephone
Mainstreet ResearchDecember 21, 2014HTML22294630±3.98 pp602IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML28501831±0.0 pp45,441Election

Timmins—James Bay

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Oraclepoll ResearchOctober 8, 2015HTML11622150±5.6 pp300Telephone
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML32501620±0.0 pp33,706Election

Toronto Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Forum ResearchOctober 1, 2015HTML17374240±4.0 pp597IVR
Forum ResearchAugust 28, 2015PDF14414041±4.0 pp488IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML17364051±0.0 pp37,350Election

University—Rosedale

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Forum ResearchSeptember 30, 2015HTML20393830±4.0 pp604IVR
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 29, 2015HTML15433930±3.84pp644IVR
Forum ResearchAugust 25, 2015PDF17463250±4.0 pp528IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML20443151±0.0 pp46,665Election

Waterloo

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML31263930±3.8 pp658IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML41153850±0.0 pp53,632Election

Willowdale

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML36154550±4.2 pp535IVR
EnvironicsAugust 17, 2015PDF32263750±4.3 pp508IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML41193900±0.0 pp38,984Election

Windsor West

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchJuly 8, 2015HTML21393730±3.97pp581IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML32541130±0.0 pp39,745Election

York Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Forum ResearchOctober 4, 2015PDF40173932±5.0 pp387IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML49163320±0.0 pp35,546Election

Ahuntsic-Cartierville

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 21, 2015HTML1337341330±3.7 pp698IVR
Mainstreet ResearchDecember 7, 2013PDF613453140±3.8 pp661IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML930312811±0.0 pp48,602Election

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Segma ResearchOctober 12, 2015HTML19.733.122.322.12.8
Segma ResearchSeptember 19, 2015HTML17.041.218.917.85.1
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML25.637.75.828.91.50.7±0.0 pp43,094Election

Jonquière

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Segma ResearchOctober 12, 2015HTML20.333.023.819.22.90.8
Segma ResearchSeptember 19, 2015HTML20.137.118.020.04.8
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML344331910±0.0 pp46,657Election

Lac-Saint-Jean

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Segma ResearchOctober 12, 2015HTML34.629.615.817.22.90
Segma ResearchSeptember 19, 2015HTML34.729.410.620.64.70
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML423232110±0.0 pp54,920Election

Laurier—Sainte-Marie

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
CROPAugust 29, 2015HTML257152042±5.0 pp377Telephone
Mainstreet ResearchDecember 7, 2013PDF632263610±3.82 pp653IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML446113531±0.0 pp51,102Election

Montarville

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Solutions LogikSeptember 25, 2015HTML928144630
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML1045132922±0.0 pp52,165Election

Mount Royal

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 21, 2015HTML271650720±3.76 pp672IVR
Mainstreet ResearchDecember 7, 2013PDF161556760±3.93 pp618IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML361841320±0.0 pp39,007Election

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 4, 2015HTML1033407100665IVR
Mainstreet ResearchDecember 7, 2013PDF1322521030±3.9 pp626IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML183538441±0.0 pp44,642Election

Papineau

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 17, 2015HTML1136411200±3.49 pp783IVR
CROPSeptember 14, 2015HTML546351040±5.06 pp375Telephone
Mainstreet ResearchDecember 7, 2013PDF514612000±4.13 pp560IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML529382521±0.0 pp45,887Election

Pontiac

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 4, 2015HTML193634830±3.74 pp673IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML2647151020±0.0 pp35,508Election

Richmond—Arthabaska

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 21, 2015HTML463571020±3.77 pp668IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML253273420±0.0 pp53,303Election

Regina—Lewvan

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 21, 2015HTML40342150±3.85 pp639IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML4445830±0.0 pp38,508Election

Saskatoon—University

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 20, 2015HTML37372240±3.4 pp853IVR
EnvironicsAugust 16, 2015PDF34412240±3.7 pp691IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML49381031±0.0 pp35,122Election

Saskatoon West

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 21, 2015HTML31362590±3.83 pp658IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML4351430±0.0 pp30,459Election

Yukon

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
EnvironicsSeptember 21, 2015HTML27293940±4.4 pp497IVR
2011 ElectionMay 2, 2011HTML341433190±0.0 pp16,057Election

See also

Notes

Notes

1 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error.[1] In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.[2]
2 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
3 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.
4 Election Results shown for 2011 are the redistributed results for the 2015 districts. These are fixed until 2023 under the present federal electoral system. About 80% of the 308 districts defined in 2003 changed their borders or are entirely new: 338 districts were defined in 2015.

References

  1. "MRIA Responds to "Evaluating the Polls: An Open Letter to Ontario's Journalists"". Marketing Research and Intelligence Association. September 16, 2011. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
  2. American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research Archived 2014-11-30 at the Wayback Machine, retrieved October 17, 2012
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