2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
The 2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Wisconsin, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 9, 2016.
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| Elections in Wisconsin |
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Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson was re-elected to a second term in office. Former U.S. Senator Russ Feingold, whom Johnson unseated in the 2010 midterm election, sought a rematch for a fourth non-consecutive term in office but was again defeated by Johnson, who became the first Republican to win a Senate election in Wisconsin during a presidential election year since Bob Kasten in 1980. Kasten was ultimately unseated by Feingold in 1992.[1] Johnson's victory was considered an upset, as most polling had Feingold in the lead.
Background
In 2010, then-incumbent Democratic Senator Russ Feingold ran for re-election to a fourth term in 2010 but was defeated by Republican nominee Ron Johnson.[2]
In March 2013, Johnson announced that he had begun fundraising for his campaign. At that time, he had just $1,529 remaining in his campaign account after raising $16.1 million for the 2010 election, over half of which he self-funded.[3] Johnson said in November 2014 that he would not self-finance another campaign, saying: "I made my $9 million investment in this country. I gave it once, I don't think I should do it again."[4] On May 14, 2015, Feingold announced he would run to win back his former Senate seat.[5] Ultimately, Feingold spent over $24 million on the campaign and ended up with more remaining cash than Johnson, who spent only $20 million.[6]
After the Republicans took control of the Senate following the 2014 Senate elections, the election in Wisconsin was seen by many as a top target for the Democrats, who hoped to retake their majority in the traditionally blue state.[7][8][9][10][11] Politico pointed to Johnson's "worrisome" favorability ratings as one of the main reasons for his vulnerability.[10] A March 2014 Marquette University Law School poll found that just 29% of voters had a favorable opinion of him.[12]
Republican primary
Declared
- Ron Johnson, incumbent U.S. Senator[13]
Democratic primary
Declared
- Russ Feingold, former U.S. Senator, and former U.S. Special Envoy for the African Great Lakes and the Congo-Kinshasa[5]
- Scott Harbach, perennial candidate
Declined
- Mary Burke, businesswoman, member of the Madison school district board, former Wisconsin Secretary of Commerce and nominee for Governor of Wisconsin in 2014[14]
- Chris Larson, state senator[15]
- Ron Kind, U.S. Representative[16]
- Gwen Moore, U.S. Representative[16]
- Mark Pocan, U.S. Representative[17]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Russ Feingold | 303,282 | 90.14% | |
| Democratic | Scott Harbach | 33,185 | 9.86% | |
| Total votes | 336,467 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian primary
Declared
- Phil Anderson, chair of the Dane County, Wisconsin Libertarian Party and nominee for the State Assembly in 2014[18]
General election
Candidates
- Ron Johnson (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
- Russ Feingold (D), former U.S. Senator, and former U.S. Special Envoy for the African Great Lakes and the Congo-Kinshasa
- Phil Anderson (L), chair of the Dane County, Wisconsin Libertarian Party and nominee for the State Assembly in 2014
Debates
| Dates | Location | Johnson | Feingold | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 14, 2016 | Green Bay, Wisconsin | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
| October 18, 2016 | Milwaukee, Wisconsin | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Endorsements
Ron Johnson (R)
- Presidents
- State Governors
- Scott Walker, Wisconsin and 2016 presidential candidate[20]
- U.S. Senators
- Lindsey Graham, South Carolina and 2016 presidential candidate[21]
- John McCain, Arizona, 2000 presidential candidate and 2008 presidential nominee[22]
- U.S. Representatives
- Paul Ryan, Wisconsin and 54th Speaker of the House of Representatives[23]
- Individuals
- John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations[24]
- Organizations
Russ Feingold (D)
- Presidents
- Vice Presidents
- U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
- Chuck Hagel, 24th Secretary of Defense (Republican)[32]
- U.S. Senators
- Tammy Baldwin, Wisconsin[33]
- Bernie Sanders, Vermont (Independent)[34]
- Jon Tester, Montana[35]
- Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts[36]
- U.S. Representatives
- Mark Pocan, Wisconsin[37]
- Alan Grayson, Florida
- Wisconsin State Senators
- Labor unions
- AFSCME - American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees[38]
- AFT - American Federation of Teachers[39]
- IBEW - International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers[40]
- LIUNA - Laborers' International Union of North America[38]
- PFFW - Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin[38]
- SEIU - Service Employees International Union[38]
- USW - United Steelworkers[41]
- WEAC - Wisconsin Education Association Council[39]
- Organizations
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[50] | Tossup | November 4, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[51] | Lean D (flip) | November 3, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[52] | Tilt D (flip) | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[53] | Lean D (flip) | September 16, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[54] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ron Johnson (R) |
Russ Feingold (D) |
Phil Anderson (L) |
Other/Neither | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 2,246 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 48% | — | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 1,943 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 48% | — | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 1,568 | ± 4.6% | 48% | 49% | — | — | 3% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | November 1–2, 2016 | 1,129 | ± 2.9% | 46% | 49% | — | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 1,271 | ± 4.6% | 48% | 48% | — | — | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 31–November 1, 2016 | 891 | ± 3.3% | 44% | 49% | — | — | 7% |
| Loras College | October 31–November 1, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 47% | 2% | — | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 1,103 | ± 4.6% | 50% | 48% | — | — | 2% |
| Marquette University | October 26–31, 2016 | 1,190 LV | ± 3.5% | 44% | 45% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| 1,401 RV | ± 3.3% | 42% | 43% | 5% | 3% | 5% | ||
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 1,195 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 49% | — | — | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 27–28, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 44% | 49% | — | 4% | 3% |
| Let America Work^ | October 18–20, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 48% | 2% | — | 4% |
| Club for Growth^ | October 18–20, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.2% | 42% | 45% | — | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 18–19, 2016 | 804 | ± 3.5% | 41% | 47% | — | — | 12% |
| Monmouth University | October 15–18, 2016 | 403 | ± 4.9% | 44% | 52% | 2% | — | 2% |
| Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College | October 13–16, 2016 | 664 | ± 3.8% | 40% | 52% | 0% | 3% | 5% |
| Washington Post/SurveyMonkey | October 8–16, 2016 | 1,076 | ± 0.5% | 46% | 51% | — | — | 3% |
| Google Consumer Surveys | October 12–14, 2016 | 551 | ± 4.2% | 39% | 58% | — | — | 3% |
| Marquette University | October 6–9, 2016 | 839 LV | ± 3.9% | 44% | 46% | 4% | 1% | 4% |
| 46% | 48% | — | 1% | 4% | ||||
| 1,000 RV | ± 3.7% | 42% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 6% | ||
| 44% | 47% | — | 2% | 5% | ||||
| CBS News/YouGov | October 5–7, 2016 | 993 | ± 4.3% | 42% | 45% | — | — | 13% |
| Loras College | October 4–5, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 40% | — | 3% | 9% |
| Breitbart/Gravis Marketing | October 4, 2016 | 1,102 | ± 3.0% | 41% | 53% | — | — | 6% |
| Emerson College | September 19–20, 2016 | 700 | ± 3.6% | 42% | 52% | — | 3% | 4% |
| Marquette University | September 15–18, 2016 | 642 LV | ± 4.8% | 39% | 44% | 7% | — | 10% |
| 41% | 47% | — | — | 8% | ||||
| 802 RV | ± 4.4% | 37% | 44% | 8% | — | 10% | ||
| 40% | 46% | — | — | 11% | ||||
| Monmouth University | August 27–30, 2016 | 404 | ± 4.9% | 41% | 54% | 2% | — | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 26–27, 2016 | 1,054 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 49% | — | — | 9% |
| Marquette University | August 25–28, 2016 | 650 LV | ± 5.0% | 42% | 45% | 6% | — | 7% |
| 45% | 48% | — | — | 7% | ||||
| 803 RV | ± 4.5% | 38% | 42% | 8% | — | 12% | ||
| 42% | 46% | — | — | 12% | ||||
| Global Strategy Group | August 25, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 37% | 55% | — | — | 8% |
| Let America Work^ | August 21–22, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 50% | — | — | 3% |
| Marquette University | August 4–7, 2016 | 683 LV | ± 5.0% | 39% | 50% | 7% | — | 4% |
| 42% | 53% | — | — | 6% | ||||
| 805 RV | ± 4.5% | 38% | 47% | 7% | — | 8% | ||
| 43% | 49% | — | — | 8% | ||||
| Let America Work^ | July 30–August 1, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 50% | — | — | 6% |
| Global Strategy Group | July 20, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 41% | 52% | — | — | 7% |
| Marquette University | July 7–10, 2016 | 665 LV | ± 4.5% | 40% | 46% | 7% | — | 7% |
| 44% | 49% | — | — | 7% | ||||
| 801 RV | ± 4.1% | 38% | 45% | 8% | — | 9% | ||
| 41% | 48% | — | — | 11% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling | June 22–23, 2016 | 843 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 50% | — | — | 13% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps | June 11–20, 2016 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 45% | 46% | — | — | 9% |
| Marquette University | June 9–12, 2016 | 666 LV | ± 4.9% | 42% | 51% | — | — | 7% |
| 800 RV | ± 4.4% | 41% | 45% | — | — | 14% | ||
| Public Policy Polling | June 8–9, 2016 | 853 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 51% | — | — | 8% |
| Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College | April 12–15, 2016 | 616 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 51% | — | — | 6% |
| Emerson College | March 30–April 3, 2016 | 1,198 | ± 2.8% | 44% | 48% | — | 8% | — |
| Public Policy Polling | March 28–29, 2016 | 1,397 | ± 2.6% | 39% | 46% | — | — | 15% |
| Loras College | March 28–29, 2016 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 48% | — | 1% | 12% |
| Marquette University | March 24–28, 2016 | 957 LV | ± 4.1% | 45% | 48% | — | — | 7% |
| 1,405 RV | ± 3.3% | 42% | 47% | — | — | 11% | ||
| Marquette University | February 18–21, 2016 | 802 RV | ± 4.5% | 37% | 49% | — | — | 14% |
| Marquette University | January 21–24, 2016 | 806 RV | ± 4.0% | 37% | 50% | — | — | 13% |
| Let America Work^ | November 16–18, 2015 | 900 | ± 3.3% | 44% | 45% | — | — | 11% |
| Marquette University | November 12–15, 2015 | 803 RV | ± 4.2% | 38% | 49% | — | — | 13% |
| Democracy Corps | October 24–28, 2015 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 51% | — | — | 3% |
| Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College | October 14–17, 2015 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 51% | — | 2% | 7% |
| Marquette University | September 24–28, 2015 | 803 RV | ± 4.1% | 36% | 50% | — | 7% | 7% |
| End Citizens United | September 10–14, 2015 | 775 | ± 3.6% | 39% | 47% | — | — | 14% |
| Marquette University | August 13–16, 2015 | 802 RV | ± 3.5% | 42% | 47% | — | — | 12% |
| Marquette University | April 7–10, 2015 | 803 RV | ± 3.5% | 38% | 54% | — | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 6–8, 2015 | 1,071 | ± 3.0% | 41% | 50% | — | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 17–20, 2014 | 1,144 | ± 2.9% | 41% | 47% | — | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 13–16, 2013 | 1,180 | ± 2.9% | 42% | 49% | — | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 21–24, 2013 | 807 | ± 2.3% | 42% | 52% | — | — | 6% |
^ Internal poll taken for Ron Johnson.
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ron Johnson (incumbent) | 1,479,471 | 50.17% | -1.69% | |
| Democratic | Russ Feingold | 1,380,335 | 46.81% | -0.21% | |
| Libertarian | Phil Anderson | 87,531 | 2.97% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,404 | 0.05% | +0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 2,948,741 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By congressional district
Johnson won 6 of 8 congressional districts, including the Democratic held 3rd.[56]
| District | Johnson | Feingold | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 56% | 42% | Paul Ryan |
| 2nd | 30% | 67% | Mark Pocan |
| 3rd | 49% | 47% | Ron Kind |
| 4th | 26% | 71% | Gwen Moore |
| 5th | 63% | 35% | Jim Sensenbrenner |
| 6th | 58% | 38% | Glenn Grothman |
| 7th | 57% | 40% | Sean Duffy |
| 8th | 59% | 38% | Reid Ribble |
| Mike Gallagher | |||
References
- "Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold in Wisconsin's U.S. Senate race".
- "Election 2010 Wisconsin Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2011. Retrieved February 27, 2011.
- Bivins, Larry (March 11, 2013). "Wis. Sen. Johnson begins re-election bid". USA Today. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
- Catalina Camia (November 19, 2014). "Johnson won't self-finance 2016 Senate race". Green Bay Press Gazette. Retrieved November 21, 2014.
- Bauer, Scott (May 14, 2015). "Wisconsin's Feingold to Run for US Senate". Associated Press.
- "Wisconsin 2016 Senate Race". OpenSecrets. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
- "Why Republicans' Senate majority could be very short-lived". The Washington Post. November 7, 2014. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
- "Here's The Democratic Route Back To Senate Control In 2016". The Huffington Post. November 6, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
- "The Seven Senate Races Democrats Should Be Optimistic About in 2016". Slate. July 3, 2014. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
- "The 10 states that could decide the next Senate". Politico. November 12, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
- "Tough Tests Looming in 2016 Raise Stakes for G.O.P. in Midterm Elections". The New York Times. April 12, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
- "Marquette Law School Poll, March 20-23, 2014" (PDF). Marquette University Law School. March 2014. Retrieved November 19, 2014.
- Mulvany, Lydia (March 11, 2013). "Sen. Ron Johnson says he'll seek re-election in 2016". JS Online. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
- "Mary Burke says she won't run for statewide office again". Wisconsin State Journal. November 10, 2014. Retrieved November 10, 2014.
- Larson, Chris (May 14, 2015). "Russ Feingold for Wisconsin - count me in!". Facebook. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
- Levinson, Alexis (December 12, 2014). "Wisconsin Democrat: Russ Feingold Would Clear Primary". Roll Call. Retrieved June 2, 2015.
- Pocan, Mark (May 14, 2015). "Did you see the big news today?". Facebook. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
- "Phil Anderson declares 2016 candidacy for US Senate in Wisconsin". Libertarian Party. November 19, 2015. Retrieved February 2, 2016.
- Tokars, Mike (June 20, 2016). "GOP Calls In The Big Gun: George W. Bush is on the campaign trail". The National Memo. Retrieved June 21, 2016.
- Walker, Scott (October 15, 2016). "If you think Obamacare is a success, then vote for Sen. Feingold. If not, vote for Ron Johnson. #WISen". Twitter. Retrieved October 15, 2016.
- http://www.wpr.org/lindsey-graham-campaigns-ron-johnson-wisconsin
- Crowe, Kevin (November 5, 2016). "McCain backs Johnson in web ad". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved November 6, 2016.
- "Paul Ryan endorses Ron Johnson at Burlington Grassroots rally". ronjohnsonforsenate.com. May 5, 2016. Retrieved September 23, 2016.
- Arkin, James (January 8, 2016). "Bolton Endorses 16 for Re-Election to Congress". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved January 10, 2016.
- Behr, Madeleine (December 7, 2015). "Johnson rips Obama for 'lack of leadership'". The Post-Crescent. Retrieved February 10, 2016.
- Sherfinski, David (November 12, 2014). "Club for Growth endorses six GOP senators for re-election in 2016". The Washington Times. Retrieved November 12, 2014.
- "National Federation of Independent Business endorses Ron Johnson". ronjohnsonforsenate.com. April 23, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- "Vote Ron Johnson for U.S. Senate: A Rated and Endorsed by NRA-PVF". National Rifle Association. Retrieved October 14, 2016.
- Glauber, Bill (March 23, 2016). "U.S. Chamber of Commerce backs Johnson in Senate race". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved March 27, 2016.
- "ACU Endorses Ron Johnson". American Conservative Union.
- Sommerhauser, Mark (March 18, 2016). "Barack Obama, Joe Biden endorse Russ Feingold". Wisconsin State Journal. Retrieved March 20, 2016.
- Carney, Jordain (January 27, 2016). "Ex-Pentagon chief donates to Feingold". The Hill. Retrieved February 2, 2016.
- Tammy Baldwin (May 18, 2015). "Have you heard? My good friend Russ Feingold is running for Senate! He's a champion of Wisconsin's progressive values, and was a friend to me in my race in 2012. Let's help him get off to a running start -- contribute to his campaign today! - TB". Facebook. Retrieved May 18, 2015.
- Terkel, Amanda (May 26, 2016). "Bernie Sanders fundraising for Russ Feingold". The Huffington Post. Retrieved May 26, 2016.
- Easley, Jonathan (May 14, 2015). "Russ Feingold running for Senate". The Hill. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
- Opoien, Jessie (September 27, 2015). "Elizabeth Warren, Russ Feingold talk student debt at UW-Madison". The Capital Times. Retrieved February 2, 2016.
- Mark Pocan (May 14, 2015). "Did you see the big news today?". Facebook. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
- Glauber, Bill (February 16, 2016). "Fire fighter union endorses Russ Feingold". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
- Glauber, Bill (February 8, 2016). "WEAC, AFT-Wisconsin endorse Russ Feingold". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved February 10, 2016.
- Delong, Katie (October 5, 2016). "Russ Feingold endorsed by IBEW; Ron Johnson calls him a "career politician with little to show for it"". WITI. Retrieved October 14, 2016.
- Behr, Madeleine (August 28, 2015). "Steelworkers endorse Feingold". The Post-Crescent. Retrieved February 2, 2016.
- http://crooksandliars.com/2015/05/blue-america-endorses-russ-feingold
- McCarter, Joan (September 16, 2015). "Let's take Wisconsin and the Senate back: Daily Kos endorses Russ Feingold". Daily Kos. Retrieved February 2, 2016.
- Friedenbach, Laura (October 7, 2016). "Every Voice Endorses Russ Feingold for Senate". Every Voice. Retrieved October 14, 2016.
- Staff, HRC (September 30, 2016). "HRC Endorses Russ Feingold of Wisconsin for U.S. Senate". Human Rights Campaign. Retrieved October 14, 2016.
- Cama, Timothy (February 10, 2016). "Two green groups back Feingold in Wisconsin Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
- Stewart, Brian (May 15, 2015). "MoveOn Members' First 2016 Endorsement: Russ Feingold". MoveOn.org. Retrieved October 14, 2016.
- Opoien, Jessie (February 9, 2016). "Planned Parenthood, NOW endorse Russ Feingold in Senate race". The Capital Times. Retrieved February 10, 2016.
- Easley, Cameron (September 20, 2016). "Bernie Sanders' Group Endorses Deborah Ross". Morning Consult. Retrieved October 14, 2016.
- "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 4, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 5, 2016.
- "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved November 5, 2016.
- "2016 Senate Ratings (November 3, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 5, 2016.
- "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved September 17, 2016.
- "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 5, 2016.
- "2016 General Election" (PDF). State of Wisconsin. November 8, 2016. Retrieved December 20, 2016.
- http://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/results
External links
- Official campaign websites (Archived)
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