2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

The 2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the 2008 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Wisconsin voters chose 10 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting Democratic U.S. Senator from Illinois Barack Obama, and his running mate U.S. Senator from Delaware Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and U.S. Senator from Arizona John McCain and his running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Main article: 2008 United States presidential election
2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
November 4, 2008
Turnout69.2% ( 3.7%)[1]
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,677,211 1,262,393
Percentage 56.22% 42.31%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elections in Wisconsin
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Also on the ballot were four third parties: activist and former presidential candidate Ralph Nader ran as an Independent with his running mate, President of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors Matt Gonzalez. The Libertarian Party nominated former Representative from Georgia Bob Barr for president and conservative author Wayne Allyn Root for vice president. Pastor Chuck Baldwin and attorney Darrell Castle were nominated by the right-wing Constitution Party, and the left-wing Green Party nominated former Representative from Georgia Cynthia McKinney and community organizer Rosa Clemente.[2]

Wisconsin was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a 13.91% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state, despite the extremely close margins of victory in the previous two presidential elections. Polling throughout the state began to show a sizable and widening lead for Democrat Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois over Republican John McCain of Arizona. Obama carried Wisconsin with over 56% of the vote, significantly improving upon John Kerry's margin of victory in 2004. No presidential candidate has ever received more votes in Wisconsin than Obama. Whether measured by raw vote margin, percentage of total votes, or two-party percentage, Obama's victory remains the strongest performance for any candidate in the state since the landslide re-election of Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. In fact, Obama carried two of three counties that voted for Barry Goldwater in that election, was the first Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 to carry Waupaca County, and only the second Democratic nominee to carry that county since the Civil War.[lower-alpha 1]

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Polling
Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election: Wisconsin

Pre-election polling early on showed a tight race. However, after May 18, Obama swept every single poll. Since September 21, Obama won every poll with at least 49% of the vote. The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 53% to 40%.[20]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $1,728,185 in the state. Barack Obama raised $4,862,486.[21]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $13,586,634. McCain and his interest groups spent $9,240,899.[22] Each ticket visited the state 7 times.[23]

Analysis

Having voted for the Democratic presidential nominees by wide margins in 1988, 1992, and 1996, but extremely narrow margins in 2000 and 2004, Wisconsin was originally considered to be a swing state in 2008.[24] However, Obama took a wide lead in the polls in Wisconsin in the final weeks before the election and many pundits and news organizations labeled the state as a safe blue state.[25]

Obama won Wisconsin by a comfortable 13.91% margin of victory. Obama carried the heavily Democratic cities of Milwaukee and Madison by large margins, winning above two-thirds of the vote, along with some traditionally Republican cities like Green Bay and Appleton.[26] In Dane County, he won almost 73% of the vote, and carried 67.3% in Milwaukee County. This was consistent with Obama's pattern of strong performances in the states bordering Illinois. Obama's best performance, at 86.81%, was in the small county of Menominee, which is 87% Native American.[27] The state's Republican base essentially melted; John McCain only carried 13 of the state's 72 counties, a devastating defeat. McCain did best in the Milwaukee suburbs like Waukesha and Ozaukee counties, with his best performance in Washington County where he received 64.14% of the vote. He only won five counties in the Northern part of the state, all of which by rather narrow margins. Wisconsin would not vote for a Republican candidate for president until it voted for Donald Trump in 2016, though it would flip back to the Democratic column in 2020 with Joe Biden back on the ballot.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which the counties of Barron, Brown, Burnett, Calumet, Chippewa, Clark, Iron, Jefferson, Kewaunee, Langlade, Manitowoc, Marathon, Marinette, Monroe, Oconto, Oneida, Outagamie, Pierce, Rusk, Shawano, Washburn, Waupaca, Waushara, and Wood voted for the Democratic presidential nominee.

Results
2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin[2]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 1,677,211 56.22% 10
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,262,393 42.31% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 17,605 0.59% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 8,858 0.30% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 6,521 0.22% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 5,072 0.17% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 4,216 0.14% 0
Others - - 1,541 0.05% 0
Totals 2,983,417 100.00% 10
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 70.8%

Results breakdown

By county
County Obama% Obama# McCain% McCain# Others% Others# Total
Adams58.14%5,80639.80%3,9742.06%2069,986
Ashland67.86%5,81830.72%2,6341.42%1228,574
Barron52.77%12,07845.69%10,4571.53%35122,886
Bayfield63.08%5,97235.54%3,3651.38%1319,468
Brown53.93%67,26944.77%55,8541.30%1,621124,744
Buffalo56.41%3,94941.76%2,9231.83%1287,000
Burnett49.92%4,33748.34%4,2001.74%1518,688
Calumet50.22%13,29548.05%12,7221.73%45726,474
Chippewa53.72%16,23944.63%13,4921.65%50030,231
Clark52.54%7,45444.99%6,3832.47%35014,187
Columbia56.92%16,66141.65%12,1931.43%41829,272
Crawford62.49%4,98735.46%2,8302.05%1647,981
Dane72.80%205,98425.82%73,0651.37%3,890282,939
Dodge44.80%19,18353.74%23,0151.46%62542,823
Door58.02%10,14240.68%7,1121.30%22717,481
Douglas65.78%15,83032.56%7,8351.67%40124,066
Dunn56.56%13,00241.61%9,5661.83%42122,989
Eau Claire60.25%33,14638.10%20,9591.65%90555,010
Florence42.23%1,13456.31%1,5121.45%392,685
Fond du Lac44.84%23,46353.83%28,1641.33%69652,323
Forest57.08%2,67341.92%1,9631.00%474,683
Grant61.16%14,87537.29%9,0681.55%37724,320
Green62.06%11,50236.31%6,7301.63%30218,534
Green Lake41.95%4,00056.55%5,3931.50%1439,536
Iowa66.73%7,98731.99%3,8291.28%15311,969
Iron55.77%1,91442.66%1,4641.57%543,432
Jackson60.23%5,57238.40%3,5521.37%1279,251
Jefferson49.69%21,44848.87%21,0961.44%62243,166
Juneau53.65%6,18644.65%5,1481.70%19611,530
Kenosha58.18%45,83640.12%31,6091.71%1,34478,789
Kewaunee54.71%5,90243.67%4,7111.61%17410,787
La Crosse60.94%38,52437.49%23,7011.57%99363,218
Lafayette60.43%4,73238.10%2,9841.47%1157,831
Langlade49.82%5,18248.85%5,0811.34%13910,402
Lincoln55.17%8,42442.70%6,5192.13%32515,268
Manitowoc52.88%22,42845.35%19,2341.77%75242,414
Marathon53.53%36,36744.66%30,3451.81%1,22867,940
Marinette52.67%11,19545.76%9,7261.57%33421,255
Marquette51.85%4,06846.57%3,6541.58%1247,846
Menominee86.81%1,25712.78%1850.41%61,448
Milwaukee67.30%319,81931.45%149,4451.25%5,928475,192
Monroe53.25%10,19845.25%8,6661.50%28819,152
Oconto52.34%9,92746.16%8,7551.51%28618,968
Oneida54.30%11,90743.92%9,6301.78%39021,927
Outagamie54.93%50,29443.33%39,6771.74%1,59291,563
Ozaukee38.56%20,57960.29%32,1721.15%61453,365
Pepin55.74%2,10242.85%1,6161.41%533,771
Pierce53.39%11,80344.38%9,8122.23%49222,107
Polk48.03%10,87649.83%11,2822.14%48522,643
Portage62.95%24,81735.03%13,8102.02%79539,422
Price55.64%4,55942.24%3,4612.12%1748,194
Racine53.07%53,40845.66%45,9541.27%1,280100,642
Richland59.66%5,04139.03%3,2981.31%1118,450
Rock63.82%50,52934.56%27,3641.61%1,27679,169
Rusk53.01%3,85544.73%3,2532.26%1647,272
St. Croix47.25%21,17750.95%22,8371.80%80744,821
Sauk60.79%18,61737.75%11,5621.46%44730,626
Sawyer52.45%4,76546.22%4,1991.33%1219,085
Shawano51.07%10,25947.48%9,5381.45%29220,089
Sheboygan48.94%30,39549.59%30,8011.47%91162,107
Taylor48.82%4,56349.07%4,5862.11%1979,346
Trempealeau62.50%8,32136.11%4,8081.39%18513,314
Vernon60.13%8,46338.13%5,3671.74%24514,075
Vilas47.21%6,49151.31%7,0551.48%20413,750
Walworth47.95%24,17750.54%25,4851.51%76050,422
Washburn51.50%4,69347.22%4,3031.27%1169,112
Washington34.56%25,71964.14%47,7291.29%96374,411
Waukesha36.64%85,33962.32%145,1521.03%2,406232,897
Waupaca50.77%12,95247.95%12,2321.28%32725,511
Waushara49.52%5,86848.70%5,7701.78%21111,849
Winnebago54.94%48,16743.28%37,9461.78%1,56487,677
Wood55.59%21,71042.46%16,5811.95%76139,052

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Barack Obama flipped 32 counties that voted for George W. Bush in the narrow election of 2004.[28][29]

By congressional district

Barack Obama swept the state, carrying seven of the state's eight congressional districts, including two districts held by Republicans. Three of these districts – the 1st, 6th, and 8th – Obama flipped from the 2004 election.[30] McCain only won the 5th district, a portion of the Milwaukee suburbs.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 47.45% 51.40% Paul Ryan
2nd 29.78% 69.00% Tammy Baldwin
3rd 40.80% 57.76% Ron Kind
4th 23.61% 75.39% Gwen Moore
5th 57.73% 41.28% Jim Sensenbrenner
6th 48.72% 49.91% Tom Petri
7th 42.52% 55.91% David Obey
8th 45.12% 53.59% Steve Kagen

Electors
Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Wisconsin cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Wisconsin is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[31] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[32]

  1. Ray Rivera
  2. Fred Risser
  3. Rollie Hick
  4. Polly Williams
  5. Dean Palmer
  6. Gordon Hintz
  7. Christine Bremer-Muggli
  8. Donsia Strong Hill
  9. Jim Doyle
  10. Joe Wineke

Notes
  1. Waupaca County did like most of Wisconsin vote for “Independent” Robert M. La Follette in 1924, but apart from this election and supporting Roosevelt in 1932 and 1936 it voted Republican in every election between 1868 and 2004.[3]

References
  1. "Wisconsin Voter Turnout Statistics". Wisconsin Election Commission. Retrieved 25 September 2020.
  2. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 2020-11-18.
  3. Menendez, Albert J.; The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, 1868-2004, pp. 337-342 ISBN 0786422173
  4. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2009-01-01. Retrieved 2009-12-25.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  5. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved January 14, 2015.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  6. Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
  7. http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Dec31.html
  8. Based on Takeaway
  9. http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html
  10. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5
  11. Based on Takeaway
  12. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  13. Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (2008-11-04). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  14. "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. 2008-10-31. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  15. Based on Takeaway
  16. Based on Takeaway
  17. "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. 2010-04-27.
  18. http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/campaign_plus/roadto270/
  19. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update
  20. http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=55
  21. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2009-03-24. Retrieved 2009-08-18.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  22. "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  23. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  24. "Reality Check: Wisconsin Still Considered A Swing State". Archived from the original on 2008-09-16. Retrieved 2008-11-12.
  25. "RealClearPolitics: Wisconsin Head-to-Head Polls". Retrieved 2008-11-12.
  26. "Local and National Election Results". CNN. Retrieved 2008-11-12.
  27. "U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Menominee County, Wisconsin; Wisconsin". www.census.gov. Retrieved 2020-11-18.
  28. "Wisconsin - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved 2020-11-18.
  29. "Wisconsin". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-11-18.
  30. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". Retrieved 2020-11-18.
  31. "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
  32. https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2008-certificates/index.html#wi
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