2008 United States presidential election in Colorado

The 2008 United States presidential election in Colorado took place on November 4, 2008, as a part of the 2008 United States presidential election throughout all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Voters chose nine representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2008 United States presidential election in Colorado

November 4, 2008
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 9 0
Popular vote 1,288,633 1,073,629
Percentage 53.66% 44.71%

County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Colorado was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a margin of victory of 8.95%. Obama took 53.66% of the vote to McCain's 44.71%. The state was heavily targeted by both campaigns, although, prior to the election, all 17 news organizations actually considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a blue state. While George W. Bush narrowly carried the state in 2004, the Centennial State ultimately flipped allegiance to Obama. This was the first time since 1992 in which the state was won by a Democrat in a presidential election.

Key to Obama's victory was Democratic dominance in the Denver area, sweeping not just the city but also the heavily populated suburban counties around Denver, particularly Adams, Arapahoe, and Jefferson counties, as well as winning Larimer County, home to Fort Collins. Obama also took over 70% of the vote in Boulder County, home to Boulder. McCain's most populated county wins were in El Paso County, where Colorado Springs is located, and Weld County, home to Greeley.

Colorado served as the tipping-point state for Obama's overall victory in the presidential election - that is, the first state to give a candidate their 270th electoral vote when all states are arranged by their margins of victory.

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Polling

Pre-election polling taken in Colorado prior to the election mostly showed Obama with a slight lead. He led every poll after September 25. The average of the last three polls showed Obama leading McCain 52% to 45%.[14]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $3,491,086. Barack Obama raised almost $11 million.[15]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $10,410,669. McCain and his interest groups spent $9,818,077.[16] McCain/Palin visited the state 13 times. Obama/Biden visited the state 8 times.[17]

Analysis

Changing demographics and a growing Hispanic population made the state more favorable to the Democrats, although Republicans still had a hold on the state due to the party's conservative stances on social issues like abortion, gay rights, and gun control.

Like most of the Mountain West, Colorado had been traditionally Republican beginning with the Eisenhower landslide of 1952, in which Eisenhower overperformed throughout the region. Between 1952 and 2004, inclusive, Democrats prevailed in Colorado only in 1964 and 1992--the former, a national Democratic landslide; the latter, a three-way contest in which independent candidate Ross Perot had disproportionate strength in the West. In addition, Republicans had mostly held control of the state legislature and most statewide offices since the 1960s. Although Democrats had bases of support in Adams and Pueblo Counties and in the south of the state, and generally carried Denver (albeit often by narrow margins), this was generally no match for Republican dominance of the Denver suburbs, El Paso County (Colorado Springs), Larimer County (Fort Collins), and, until Dukakis flipped it in 1988, Boulder County, as well as of most of the rural areas of the state.

Recently, however, there had been a growing population of Hispanic Americans,[18] young professionals, and an influx of people from other states - all of whom tend to vote Democratic. These demographic changes caused the state's political ideology to shift.[19] While Republicans still enjoyed an advantage in voter registration statewide, Democrats had been closing the gap. There had also been an increasing number of unaffiliated, independent-minded voters.[20] Since 2004, Democrats had won the governorship, both Senate seats, three House seats, and control of both chambers in the state legislature.

At the presidential level, Colorado voted for Bush by 8.36% in 2000, making it the second-closest of the states carried by Dole in 1996 (behind only Virginia). Moreover, his 50.75% vote share was his lowest in any of the states carried by Dole in 1996, with Ralph Nader posting a relatively strong showing in the state in 2000. Colorado was not seriously contested in 2004, but Kerry cut Bush's margin down to 4.67% in the state, as Kerry flipped a number of ski-resort counties, scored the best showings in Denver and Boulder County of any presidential nominee in decades, and narrowed Bush's margins in the Denver-area suburban counties of Jefferson and Arapahoe, as well as in Larimer.

Bush's relatively narrow margin in the state in 2004, along with the demographic changes of the prior four years, led Colorado to become a crucial swing state in 2008. Both Barack Obama and John McCain campaigned extensively in the state. Several factors in the campaign favored the Democrat. Barack Obama did very well in the caucus, defeating opponent Hillary Clinton with almost 67% of the vote. On the other hand, John McCain badly lost the state to opponent Mitt Romney, who gained 60% of the vote. Moreover, the 2008 Democratic National Convention was held in Denver. The publicity generated from the event provided a strong boost to Obama. According to Real Clear Politics polling averages, Obama and McCain were neck-to-neck through the summer and early September. However, as the 2008 financial crisis hit, Obama's numbers in Colorado jumped to over 50%.[21]

During the campaign, several media organizations reported on voting machine problems. There was also reporting on the controversial practice of "purging" voter registration lists.[22]

On election day, Obama won by a comfortable margin, greater than his national average. Obama improved on John Kerry's performance throughout the state. He won landslides in the Democratic strongholds of Denver and Boulder; in both areas, Obama took more than 70% of the vote. He also further built upon Kerry's strength in a number of rich counties dominated by ski resorts along the Front Range; and continued to dominate the traditionally Democratic areas of Pueblo County, Adams County, and the thinly populated, Latino counties of southern Colorado.

McCain did best in the rural, conservative areas next to Kansas and Utah, where he won landslide margins. In Rio Blanco County, Mesa County, Yuma County, Washington County, Lincoln County, Bent County, Crowley County, and tiny Dolores County, Phillips County, Cheyenne County, and Kiowa County, he managed a slightly greater vote share than Bush in 2000. Voters in more populated El Paso County, home to conservative Colorado Springs, gave McCain a 19% margin, which, while a comfortable win, was far less than Bush's 35% margin in 2004. McCain also won two other relatively populated counties, Douglas County and Weld County, both outer suburbs of the Denver area--although, again, by substantially reduced margins compared to Bush in 2004. However, the largest suburban counties of the area, traditionally Republican Jefferson and Arapahoe Counties, flipped from Bush to Obama in 2008, as did Broomfield County, which cast its first presidential vote for Bush in 2004. Obama also flipped Larimer County. All together, this was more than enough to overcome Republican advantages elsewhere in the state, as Obama won it by a nearly nine-point margin.

Elsewhere in the state, Democrats also did well. Democratic Mark Udall defeated Republican Bob Schaffer for an open U.S. Senate seats; his vacated House seat was also won by Democrat Jared Polis. In addition, Democrat Betsy Markey defeated incumbent Republican Marilyn Musgrave, by 12 points for Colorado's 4th Congressional District seat. At the state level, Democrats picked up one seat in the Colorado Senate, but lost two seats in the Colorado House of Representatives. Obama's 65.8% victory in Summit County was the highest percentage win by a Democratic presidential nominee in the county since Woodrow Wilson won the county with 70.3% of the vote back in 1916.

Results

2008 United States presidential election in Colorado[23]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 1,288,633 53.66% 9
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,073,629 44.71% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 13,352 0.56% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 10,898 0.45% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 6,233 0.26% 0
America's Independent Alan Keyes Brian Rohrbough 3,051 0.13% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 2,822 0.12% 0
New American Independent Frank McEnulty David Mangan 829 0.03% 0
Boston Tea Charles Jay Dan Sallis, Jr. 598 0.02% 0
HeartQuake '08 Jonathan Allen Jeffrey Stath 348 0.01% 0
Objectivist Tom Stevens Alden Link 336 0.01% 0
Socialist Brian Moore Stewart Alexander 226 0.01% 0
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva Eugene Puryear 158 0.01% 0
Socialist Workers James Harris Alyson Kennedy 154 0.01% 0
Pacifist Bradford Lyttle Abraham Bassford 110 <0.01% 0
Prohibition Gene Amondson Leroy Pletten 85 <0.01% 0
Totals 2,401,462 100.00% 9
Voter turnout 65.0%

Results breakdown

By county

County Obama% Obama# McCain% McCain# Others% Others# Total
Adams58.22%93,44539.86%63,9761.92%3,080160,501
Alamosa56.01%3,52141.92%2,6352.07%1306,286
Arapahoe55.69%148,22442.78%113,8681.53%4,064266,156
Archuleta42.81%2,83654.91%3,6382.28%1516,625
Baca24.64%53672.28%1,5723.08%672,175
Bent41.61%79956.09%1,0772.29%441,920
Boulder72.29%124,15926.14%44,9041.57%2,700171,763
Broomfield54.89%16,16843.31%12,7571.79%52829,453
Chaffee49.01%4,86249.12%4,8731.87%1869,921
Cheyenne17.82%19880.11%8902.07%231,111
Clear Creek57.78%3,33239.88%2,3002.34%1355,767
Conejos55.60%2,15442.67%1,6531.73%673,874
Costilla73.36%1,24524.45%4152.18%371,697
Crowley35.43%55262.64%9761.93%301,558
Custer34.69%91263.60%1,6721.71%452,629
Delta32.94%5,08465.23%10,0671.83%28315,434
Denver75.45%204,88223.04%62,5671.50%4,084271,533
Dolores30.32%36967.21%8182.47%301,217
Douglas40.81%61,96058.03%88,1081.15%1,751151,819
Eagle60.91%13,19137.77%8,1811.32%28621,658
El Paso39.86%108,89958.69%160,3181.45%3,958273,175
Elbert28.92%3,81968.97%9,1082.11%27913,206
Fremont34.36%6,84463.60%12,6682.04%40719,919
Garfield49.20%11,35749.21%11,3591.59%36623,082
Gilpin59.07%1,99038.08%1,2832.85%963,369
Grand48.59%4,03749.68%4,1281.73%1448,309
Gunnison62.64%5,55735.29%3,1312.06%1838,871
Hinsdale40.07%24057.43%3442.50%15599
Huerfano54.60%1,98943.37%1,5802.03%743,643
Jackson30.31%27768.27%6241.42%13914
Jefferson53.60%158,15844.61%131,6281.79%5,282295,068
Kiowa20.89%17876.29%6502.82%24852
Kit Carson26.50%91271.32%2,4552.18%753,442
La Plata57.39%16,05741.11%11,5031.50%41927,979
Lake61.93%1,85935.91%1,0782.17%653,002
Larimer53.99%89,82344.26%73,6421.75%2,910166,375
Las Animas52.68%3,56245.64%3,0861.67%1136,761
Lincoln23.70%54674.52%1,7171.78%412,304
Logan31.70%2,84666.86%6,0021.44%1298,977
Mesa34.48%24,00864.02%44,5781.50%1,04569,631
Mineral43.34%27053.61%3343.05%19623
Moffat26.95%1,58270.43%4,1352.62%1545,871
Montezuma39.42%4,66158.87%6,9611.72%20311,825
Montrose33.91%6,49563.69%12,1992.40%45919,153
Morgan37.26%3,81361.29%6,2721.46%14910,234
Otero43.98%3,54754.47%4,3931.55%1258,065
Ouray53.46%1,63644.67%1,3671.86%573,060
Park45.29%4,25052.18%4,8962.53%2379,383
Phillips27.51%62271.34%1,6131.15%262,261
Pitkin73.74%7,34924.92%2,4841.33%1339,966
Prowers32.22%1,48765.94%3,0431.84%854,615
Pueblo56.74%41,09741.78%30,2571.48%1,07372,427
Rio Blanco20.81%65577.44%2,4371.75%553,147
Rio Grande44.97%2,44853.82%2,9301.21%665,444
Routt62.66%8,27035.80%4,7251.55%20413,199
Saguache62.91%1,73034.76%9562.33%642,750
San Juan53.23%26443.95%2182.82%14496
San Miguel76.99%3,34921.45%9331.56%684,350
Sedgwick34.64%46863.43%8571.92%261,351
Summit65.79%9,80232.77%4,8831.44%21414,899
Teller34.97%4,51363.12%8,1461.91%24712,906
Washington21.05%52977.56%1,9491.39%352,513
Weld44.67%47,29253.39%56,5261.93%2,048105,866
Yuma24.92%1,11773.30%3,2861.78%804,483

By congressional district

While Barack Obama won the state’s popular vote and 9 electoral votes, John McCain carried four of the state’s seven congressional districts, including both seats held by Republicans and two seats held by Democrats.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 24.25% 74.20% Diana DeGette
2nd 34.10% 64.22% Mark Udall (110th Congress)
Jared Polis (111th Congress)
3rd 50.44% 47.90% John Salazar
4th 49.54% 48.66% Marilyn Musgrave (110th Congress)
Betsy Markey (111th Congress)
5th 58.57% 39.89% Doug Lamborn
6th 52.48% 46.17% Tom Tancredo (110th Congress)
Mike Coffman (111th Congress)
7th 39.49% 58.56% Ed Perlmutter

Electors

Technically the voters of Colorado cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Colorado is allocated 9 electors because it has 7 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 9 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 9 were pledged to Obama and Biden:

  1. Wellington Webb
  2. Terry Phillips
  3. Camilla Auger
  4. Pam Shaddock
  5. Jennifer Trujillo-Sanchez
  6. Don Strickland
  7. Ann Knollman
  8. Polly Baca
  9. Margaret Atencio

References

  1. "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". Archived from the original on 2009-01-01. Retrieved 2009-12-19.
  2. Presidential | The Cook Political Report Archived May 5, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
  3. Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
  4. Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
  5. Based on Takeaway
  6. POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
  7. RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
  8. CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 Archived June 14, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
  9. "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  10. "October 2008 CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  11. "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. 2010-04-27.
  12. roadto270
  13. Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
  14. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html#polls
  15. "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on 2009-03-24. Retrieved 2009-08-03.
  16. "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  17. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  18. Schaller, Thomas. Past Dixie. Simon & Schuster, 2006. 184.
  19. Schaller, Thomas. Whistling Past Dixie. Simon & Schuster, 2006.
  20. "Obama, McCain look west". Rocky Mountain News. 2008-06-07. Retrieved 2008-06-07.
  21. RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Colorado: McCain vs. Obama
  22. Williams, David (2008-08-27). "Palast uses DNC to tout 'Steal Back Your Vote' project". Colorado Independent. Archived from the original on 2008-10-16. Retrieved 2008-10-24.
  23. "Colorado 2008 General Election". The Green Papers. Retrieved 2008-10-12.
  24. "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
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