2012 United States Senate election in Texas

The 2012 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 6, 2012, along with other elections to the United States Senate the United States House of Representatives in additional states. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison decided to retire instead of running for re-election to a fourth full term.

2012 United States Senate election in Texas
November 6, 2012
Turnout64.8% (of registered voters)
49.7% (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Ted Cruz Paul Sadler
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 4,440,137 3,194,927
Percentage 56.5% 40.6%
County results
Cruz:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90–100%
Sadler:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Kay Bailey Hutchison
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Ted Cruz
Republican

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Libertarian John Jay Myers was elected by nomination at the Texas Libertarian Party State Convention on June 8, 2012. After the first round of primary voting on May 29, 2012, a runoff was held on July 31, 2012, for both the Democratic and Republican parties. Former state representative Paul Sadler and former state solicitor general Ted Cruz respectively won the Democratic and Republican runoffs, and Cruz won the general election by a wide margin.

Background

In an interview with Texas Monthly published in December 2007, incumbent senator Kay Bailey Hutchison stated that she would not seek re-election and might also resign from the Senate as early as 2009 to run for Governor of Texas.[2] After the 2008 elections, Hutchison formed an exploratory committee to run for governor in 2010.[3] State Republican Party Chairman Cathie Adams later called upon Hutchison to clarify when she would vacate the Senate so that other Republican candidates could make preparations to run.[4]

On December 4, 2008, Hutchison set up an exploratory committee, setting up a primary battle with incumbent Republican governor Rick Perry.[5] Fellow Texas senator and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn tried to convince Hutchison to stay in the Senate, for fear of losing the seat to the Democrats.[6] On January 15, 2009, Hutchison transferred nearly all the money, approximately $8 million, from her federal campaign account to her gubernatorial exploratory committee.[7] On November 13, 2009, Hutchison announced that she would not resign from the Senate seat until after the primary on March 2, 2010.[8]

Hutchison lost the gubernatorial primary to Perry and on March 31, 2010, she announced her intention to serve out her third term.[9] On January 13, 2011, after some discussion about whether she would change her mind,[10] Hutchison announced she would not seek re-election in 2012.[11]

Requirements for nomination

Texas requires a majority for nomination, and a second round runoff between the two candidates with the two highest pluralities if none win a majority on the first round.[12] No candidate won a majority in either 2012 major party first round primary, so both parties had a runoff on July 31, 2012.

Republican primary

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements
Ted Cruz
David Dewhurst

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Ted
Cruz		 David
Dewhurst		 Craig
James		 Tom
Leppert		 Lela
Pittenger		 Other Undecided
Baselice & Associates October 31 – November 2, 2011 600 ±4% 6% 50% — 9% — — 35%
Public Policy Polling January 12–15, 2012 559 ±4.2% 18% 36% 4% 7% 1% 3%[58] 31%
UoT/Texas Tribune February 8–15, 2012 366 ±5.12% 27% 38% 7% 7% 1% 20%[59] —
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012 400 ±4.9% 26% 38% 7% 8% — 22%
DWBS April 27–30, 2012 400 ±4.5% 16% 51% 2% 7% — — 24%
UoT/Texas Tribune May 2012 274 ±5.92% 31% 40% 4% 17% 3% 4%[60] 2%
BOR/People Calling People May 15–16, 2012 557 ±4.2% 30% 43% 5% 14% 4% 3%[61] —
Public Policy Polling May 22–23, 2012 482 ±4.5% 29% 46% 5% 15% — 2% 5%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Ted
Cruz		 David
Dewhurst		 Elizabeth
Ames Jones		 Tom
Leppert		 Dan
Patrick		 Michael
Williams		 Roger
Williams		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 14–16, 2011 400 ±4.9% 3% 23% 6% 3% — 3% 1% 42%[62] 19%
UoT/Texas Tribune February 11–17, 2011 374 ±5.07% 3% 27% 2% – — 5% 2% 9%[63] 52%
UoT/Texas Tribune May 11–18, 2011 388 ±4.98% 2% 25% 1% 4% — 6% 2% — —
Texas Lyceum May 24–31, 2011 147 ±8.08% 1% 27% 2% 3% — 0% 4% 3%[64] 56%[65]
DWBS + June 4–5, 2011 450 ±4.62% 2% — 4% 11% 19% — 6% — 58%
6% — — — 29% — — — 64%
Public Policy Polling June 25–27, 2011 400 ±4.9% 11% 40% 3% 5% 11% — 2% 2%[66] 26%
Public Policy Polling September 15–18, 2011 400 ±4.9% 12% 41% 7% 6% — — — — 34%
UoT/Texas Tribune October 19–26, 2011 800 ±4.93% 10% 22% 2% 5% — — — 12%[67] 50%
  •  • Commissioned by David Dewhurst
  • + Commissioned by Dan Patrick

Results
Republican primary results[68]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Dewhurst 627,731 44.63
Republican Ted Cruz 480,558 34.16
Republican Tom Leppert 187,900 13.36
Republican Craig James 50,569 3.60
Republican Glenn Addison 23,177 1.65
Republican Lela Pittenger 18,143 1.29
Republican Ben Gambini 7,225 0.51
Republican Curt Cleaver 6,671 0.47
Republican Joe Argis 4,674 0.33
Total votes 1,406,648 100

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Ted
Cruz		 David
Dewhurst		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 22–23, 2012 482 ±4.5% 34% 59% 7%
Wenzel Strategies July 10–11, 2012 600 ±4% 47% 38% 14%
Public Policy Polling July 10–11, 2012 468 ±4.5% 49% 44% 7%
Public Policy Polling July 28–29, 2012 665 ±3.8% 52% 42% 6%

Results
Republican runoff results[69]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ted Cruz 631,812 56.82
Republican David Dewhurst 480,126 43.18
Total votes 1,111,938 100

Democratic primary

Filed

Withdrew

Declined

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Addie
Allen		 Sean
Hubbard		 Paul
Sadler		 Grady
Yarbrough		 Others
University of Texas/Texas Tribune May 2012 234 ±6.41% 22% 22% 35% 12% Don't know (9%)

Results
Democratic primary results[86]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Paul Sadler 174,772 35.13
Democratic Grady Yarbrough 128,746 25.88
Democratic Addie Allen 113,935 22.90
Democratic Sean Hubbard 80,034 16.09
Total votes 497,487 100

Runoff
Democratic runoff results[87]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Paul Sadler 148,940 63.03
Democratic Grady Yarbrough 87,365 36.97
Total votes 236,305 100

Libertarian Party nomination

The Libertarian Party was qualified for the ballot (based on its 2010 performance at the polls). The Texas Libertarian Party nominated John Jay Myers as its Senate candidate, using approval voting on June 9 at the state convention in Fort Worth. The nominating process followed a two-round debate featuring six candidates for the nomination.

Candidates
  • Robert Butler
  • Wayne Huffman
  • Scott Jameson
  • John Jay Myers, restaurant owner[88][89]
  • S. Ropal Raju
  • Jon Roland

Results
Libertarian convention approval vote[90]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian John Jay Myers 97 78.9
Libertarian Scott Jameson 28 22.8
Libertarian John Roland 27 21.9
Libertarian Robert Butler 19 15.4
Libertarian S. Ropal Raju 3 2.4
Libertarian Wayne Huffman 2 1.6
Total votes 176 143[91]
Total ballots 123 1.431[91]

Green Party nomination

The Green Party of Texas reported two candidates pre-selected at the June 9 convention:[92] David B. Collins and Victoria Ann Zabaras. Collins was ultimately nominated (official blog).

General election

Candidates
  • Ted Cruz, (Republican) former State Solicitor General
  • Paul Sadler, (Democratic) former State Representative
  • John Jay Myers, (Libertarian) restaurant owner
  • David Collins (Green), IT service desk analyst[93]
  • Chris Tina Bruce (Independent)[94]
  • Mike Champion (Independent)[95]

Debates

Fundraising
Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Ted Cruz (R) $9,053,212 $7,600,914 $1,452,297 $795,000
Paul Sadler (D) $139,197 $108,442 $30,753 $12,197
John Jay Myers (L) $6,139 $547 $5,591 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[96][97][98]

Top contributors

[99]

Paul Sadler Contribution Ted Cruz Contribution
Communications Workers of America $5,000 Club for Growth $659,777
International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers $5,000 Senate Conservatives Fund $200,549
International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers $5,000 Morgan, Lewis & Bockius $41,600
United Transportation Union $5,000 Goldman Sachs $40,750
Velvin Oil Co $5,000 RE Janes Gravel Co $37,500
3-D Secure $2,500 Woodforest National Bank $37,000
American Federation of Teachers $2,500 Jones Day $34,900
Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers $2,500 Bartlit, Beck, Herman, Palenchar & Scott $36,350
Galyean Lp $2,500 Baker Botts $32,313
University of Houston $2,500 Crow Holdings $30,000

Top industries

[100]

Paul Sadler Contribution Ted Cruz Contribution
Industrial unions $15,000 Republican/Conservative $825,098
Lawyers/law firms $9,000 Lawyers/law firms $551,662
Transportation unions $7,500 Retired $437,961
Retired $7,500 Oil and gas $325,850
Public sector unions $2,500 Financial institutions $305,110
Financial institutions $2,500 Real estate $240,300
Education $2,500 Leadership PACs $235,549
Candidate committees $2,000 Misc finance $185,700
Lobbyists $1,000 Health professionals $155,880
Civil servants/public officials $500 Misc business $148,874

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[101] Solid R November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[102] Safe R November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[103] Safe R November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[104] Safe R November 5, 2012

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Ted
Cruz (R)		 Paul
Sadler (D)		 John Jay
Myers (L)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 12–15, 2012 700 ±3.7% 41% 31% — 28%
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012 591 ±4.0% 44% 34% — 22%
Frederick Polling September 2012 700 ±3.7% 49% 32% 6% 14%
YouGov September 14, 2012 1,201 ±2.8% 50% 31% — 19%
Texas Lyceum September 10–26, 2012 1,175 ±2.83% 50% 24% — 26%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune October 15–20, 2012 540 ±4.22% 54% 39% — 7%

Results
2012 United States Senate election in Texas[105]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Ted Cruz 4,440,137 56.46% -5.23%
Democratic Paul Sadler 3,194,927 40.62% +4.58%
Libertarian John Jay Myers 162,354 2.06% -0.20%
Green David Collins 67,404 0.86% N/A
Total votes 7,864,822 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

See also

References
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  58. Joe Agris 2%, Glenn Addison 1%, Charles Holcomb 0%
  59. Glenn Addison 1%, Curt Cleaver 0%, Charles Holcomb 0%, Other 19%
  60. Glenn Addison 2%, Joe Agris 1%, Curt Cleaver 1%, Ben Gambini 0%
  61. Glenn Addison 2%, Curt Cleaver 1%, Joe Agris 0%, Ben Gambini 0%
  62. Ron Paul 21%, Greg Abbott 14%, Joe Barton 7%
  63. Michael McCaul 4%, Other 5%
  64. Michael McCaul 3%
  65. Haven't thought much about it 56%
  66. Glenn Addison 2%, Lela Pittenger 0%
  67. Michael McCaul 5%, Glenn Addison 0%, Another Republican candidate 7%
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Official campaign websites (Archived)
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