2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
In the United States Senate election held in Massachusetts on November 6, 2012, Democrat Elizabeth Warren defeated incumbent Republican Senator Scott Brown. This election was held concurrently with the U.S. presidential election and elections to the U.S. Senate in other states, as well as elections to the House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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Elections in Massachusetts |
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Brown ran for re-election to a first full term. He had been elected in a special election in 2010 following the death of incumbent Democratic senator Ted Kennedy. Brown was unopposed in the Republican primary. For the Democrats, an initial wide field of prospective candidates narrowed after the entry of Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren, the architect of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Warren clinched near-unanimous party support, with all but one of the other Democratic candidates withdrawing following her entrance. After winning her party's nomination, eliminating any need for a primary, she faced Brown in the general election.
The election was one of the most-followed races in 2012 and cost approximately $82 million, which made it the most expensive election in Massachusetts history and the second-most expensive in the entire 2012 election cycle, next to the presidential race; this was despite the two candidates' having agreed not to allow outside money to influence the race. Opinion polling indicated a close race for much of the campaign, though Warren opened up a small but consistent lead in the final few weeks. She went on to defeat Brown by over 236,000 votes, 54% to 46%. Brown was the only incumbent Senator to lose a general election in 2012.
Background
Democratic U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy was re-elected in 2006, and died on August 25, 2009, from a malignant brain tumor.[1] On September 24, 2009, Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick appointed longtime friend of Kennedy and former Democratic National Committee chairman Paul G. Kirk to succeed Kennedy until a special election could be held.[2] Kirk's appointment was especially controversial, as the governor's ability to appoint an interim senator was removed during the Romney administration by the Democratic-controlled legislature, as a precaution if senator and presidential nominee John Kerry was elected president in 2004. Laws surrounding senate appointment were quickly changed following Kennedy's death.[3] The Massachusetts Republican Party sued in an attempt to halt Kirk's appointment, but it was rejected by Suffolk Superior Court Judge Thomas Connolly.[4]
In the special election held on January 19, 2010, Republican state senator Scott Brown defeated Democratic state attorney general Martha Coakley in an upset victory.[5] Brown thus became the first Republican to be elected from Massachusetts to the United States Senate since Edward Brooke in 1972 and he began serving the remainder of Kennedy's term on February 4, 2010.[6][7]
Republican primary
Brown was unopposed in the Republican primary. The political action committee National Republican Trust, a group integral to Brown's election in 2010, vowed to draft a more conservative challenger, but was unable to find one.[8]
Candidates
- Scott Brown, incumbent U.S. Senator[9]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Scott Brown |
More conservative challenger |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 16–18, 2011 | 255 | ±6.1% | 70% | 21% | — | 9% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Scott Brown (incumbent) | 133,860 | 99.46 | |
Republican | Write-ins | 733 | 0.54 | |
Total votes | 134,593 | 100.00 |
Democratic primary
The Massachusetts Democratic Convention was held on June 2, 2012, where Warren received 95.77% of delegate votes.[11] As the only candidate with 15% of delegate votes necessary to qualify for the primary ballot, Warren eliminated her challenger Marisa DeFranco, becoming the de facto nominee. The Democratic primary was held September 6, 2012, with Warren running unopposed.[12]
Declared
- Nominee: Elizabeth Warren, Harvard Law School professor and architect of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau[13]
- Eliminated at convention: Marisa DeFranco, immigration lawyer[11]
Withdrew
- Tom Conroy, state representative (withdrew December 12, 2011)[14]
- Alan Khazei, founder of City Year (withdrew October 26, 2011)[15]
- James Coyne King, corporate lawyer (withdrew March 21, 2012)[16]
- Bob Massie, entrepreneur and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Massachusetts in 1994 (withdrew October 7, 2011)[17]
- Herb Robinson, engineer (withdrew December 15, 2011)[18]
- Setti Warren, Mayor of Newton (withdrew September 29, 2011; endorsed Warren)[19]
Declined
- Mike Capuano, U.S. Representative[20]
- Kim Driscoll, Mayor of Salem[21]
- Barney Frank, U.S. Representative[22]
- Joseph P. Kennedy II, former U.S. Representative[23]
- Victoria Reggie Kennedy, Ted Kennedy's widow[24]
- Stephen Lynch, U.S. Representative[25]
- Rachel Maddow, television host, and political commentator[26]
- Marty Meehan, former U.S. Representative[27]
- Thomas Menino, Mayor of Boston[28]
- Deval Patrick, Governor of Massachusetts[29]
- John F. Tierney, U.S. Representative[30]
- Warren Tolman, former state senator and former state representative[31]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tom Conroy |
Marisa DeFranco |
Jim King |
Alan Khazei |
Bob Massie |
Herb Robinson |
Elizabeth Warren |
Setti Warren |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 16–18, 2011 | 461 | ±4.6% | 7% | 2% | — | 9% | 2% | 1% | 55% | 1% | — | 22% |
UMass Lowell | September 22–28, 2011 | 1,005 | ±3.8% | 5% | 4% | — | 3% | 3% | 1% | 36% | 3% | 1% | 32% |
YouGov for UMass Amherst | November 9–22, 2011 | 122 | ±4.6% | 7% | 6% | — | — | — | 2% | 73% | — | 13% | — |
Suffolk University/7NEWS | February 11–15, 2012 | 218 | ±?% | — | 5% | 1% | — | — | — | 72% | — | — | 20% |
Suffolk University/7NEWS | May 20–22, 2012 | 284 | ±?% | — | 6% | — | — | — | — | 71% | — | — | 12% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Elizabeth Warren | 3,352 | 95.77 | |
Democratic | Marisa DeFranco | 148 | 4.23 | |
Total votes | 3,500 | 100.00 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Elizabeth Warren | 308,979 | 97.59 | |
Democratic | Write-ins | 7,638 | 2.41 | |
Total votes | 316,617 | 100.00 |
General election
Campaign
On September 14, 2011, Warren declared her intention to run for the Democratic nomination for the 2012 election in Massachusetts for the United States Senate. The seat had been won by Republican Scott Brown in a 2010 special election after the death of Ted Kennedy.[33][34]
Warren won the Democratic nomination on June 2, 2012, at the state Democratic convention with a record 95.77% of the votes of delegates.[11] She was endorsed by the Governor of Massachusetts, Deval Patrick.[35] Warren and her opponent Scott Brown agreed to engage in four televised debates, including one with a consortium of media outlets in Springfield and one on WBZ-TV in Boston.[36]
Brown ran as a moderate, stressing his ability to cross party lines and highlighting his votes for the Dodd-Frank financial reform law and to repeal "don't ask, don't tell".[37] Warren campaigned on a platform championing the middle class, and supporting Wall Street regulation. Warren criticized Brown for continually voting with Republican leadership, and argued that he was not the bipartisan moderate he claimed to be.[38][39] A staple of Brown's attack tactics against Warren was his consistent reference to her as "Professor Warren", in attempt to portray her as an elitist academic.[40] Brown faced blowback after the second debate, during which he claimed conservative Antonin Scalia was a "model" Supreme Court Justice, prompting boos from the debate audience.[41]
Warren spoke at the 2012 Democratic National Convention immediately before Bill Clinton on the penultimate night of the convention. Warren contrasted President Obama's economic plan with Mitt Romney's in the 2012 election and rebuked the Republican Party's economic policy stating: "Their vision is clear: 'I've got mine, and the rest of you are on your own.'" Warren positioned herself as a champion of a beleaguered middle class that, as she said, "has been chipped, squeezed and hammered."[42][43][44] According to Warren, "People feel like the system is rigged against them. And here's the painful part: They're right. The system is rigged." Warren said that Wall Street CEOs "wrecked our economy and destroyed millions of jobs" and that they "still strut around congress, no shame, demanding favors, and acting like we should thank them."[45][46][47] Brown attended the 2012 Republican National Convention, but was not a speaker there. According to Brown, he had rejected an offer to play a larger role, and limited his attendance to a single day because of scheduling demands.[48][49]
Following Todd Akin's controversial "legitimate rape" comments, Brown was the first sitting senator to demand he drop out of the Missouri U.S. Senate race.[50] He also called on his party to "recognize in its platform that you can be pro-choice and still be a good Republican."[50] Brown's campaign had been endorsed by many Massachusetts Democrats, many of whom were prominently featured in his campaign ads.[51]
In September 2011, a video of Warren explaining her approach to economic policy gained popularity on the internet.[52] In the video, Warren rebuts the charge that asking the rich to pay more taxes is "class warfare", pointing out that no one grew rich in America without depending on infrastructure paid for by the rest of society, stating:[53][54]
There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own. Nobody. ... You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for; you hired workers the rest of us paid to educate; you were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn't have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory, and hire someone to protect against this, because of the work the rest of us did. Now look, you built a factory and it turned into something terrific, or a great idea. God bless. Keep a big hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is, you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along.
On July 13, 2012, President Obama sparked a controversy when he echoed her thoughts[55][56] in a campaign speech saying, "Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you've got a business—you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."[57][58]
Warren encountered significant opposition from business interests. In August 2012, Rob Engstrom, political director for the United States Chamber of Commerce, claimed that "no other candidate in 2012 represents a greater threat to free enterprise than Professor Warren."[59] She nonetheless raised $39 million for her campaign, the most of any Senate candidate in 2012.[60]
Native American ancestry
In April 2012, the Boston Herald sparked an election controversy when it drew attention to Warren's Association of American Law Schools (AALS) directory entries from 1986 to 1995, which listed her as a minority professor.[61] According to the AALS, the directory was compiled by information supplied by law school deans, based on questionnaires filled out by individual teachers.[62] Warren stated that she had self-identified as having Native American ancestry in order to meet others with a similar background.[63] Harvard Law School had listed her as a minority professor in response to criticisms about a lack of faculty diversity, but Warren said that she was unaware of this until she read about it in a newspaper during the 2012 election.[61][62][64]
Her opponent Scott Brown speculated that she had fabricated a native ancestry to gain an advantage in the employment market; the Brown campaign used Warren's lineage in several attack ads.[65][66][67] In response, Warren's brothers issued a joint statement stating that they "grew up listening to our mother and grandmother and other relatives talk about our family's Cherokee and Delaware heritage".[68][69] Brian Leiter of the Chicago Law School dismissed the allegations against Warren, noting that law schools have "no pressure to hire Native Americans for affirmative action reasons", and that Warren's record of scholarship was "clearly sufficient to get her appointed at Harvard".[70] Several Brown staffers mocked Warren by doing the "tomahawk chop" at a Brown campaign rally, which Brown said he did not condone.[71]
According to the New England Historical Genealogical Society, several members of Warren's maternal family claim Cherokee heritage;[72] the society found a family newsletter that alluded to a marriage license application that listed Elizabeth Warren's great-great-great grandmother as a Cherokee, but could not find the primary document and found no proof of Warren's Native American heritage.[67][73] The Oklahoma Historical Society stated that finding a definitive answer about Native American heritage can be difficult because of intermarriage and deliberate avoidance of registration.[74] Some members of the Cherokee Nation protested her claim to Native American ancestry and questioned whether she benefitted from it.[75][76] Former colleagues and supervisors at the universities where she had worked (including Charles Fried, former Solicitor General under President Ronald Reagan) said Warren's ancestry was either not mentioned, or played no role in her hiring.[62][64][67][77]
The question of Warren's ancestry was pressed by the Brown campaign throughout the election. However, polls showed that most voters said that the controversy would not impact their vote in the election.[78] Warren's 2014 autobiography devoted a section to the allegations, describing them as untrue and hurtful.[79] In 2018, Warren released the results of a DNA test that strongly suggests that she had a Native American ancestor six to ten generations ago, and suggests Warren is between 1/64th and 1/1,024th Native American.[80]
Endorsements
Politicians
- Kelly Ayotte, U.S. Senator (R-NH)[81]
- Susan Collins, U.S. Senator (R-ME)[82]
- Richard Lugar, U.S. Senator (R-IN)[83]
- John McCain, U.S. Senator (R-AZ)[84]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator (R-FL)[85]
- Olympia Snowe, U.S. Senator (R-ME)[86]
- Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey[87]
- Paul Cellucci, former governor of Massachusetts and U.S. Ambassador to Canada[88]
- William Weld, former Governor of Massachusetts[89]
- Christine Todd Whitman, former Governor of New Jersey[90]
- Michael Bloomberg, Mayor of New York City.[91]
- Judith Flanagan Kennedy, Mayor of Lynn[92]
- Mark Hawke, Mayor of Gardner[93]
- Dean Mazzarella, Mayor of Leominster[94]
- Gregory Neffinger, Mayor of West Springfield[95]
- Arthur G. Vigeant, Mayor of Marlborough[96]
- Raymond Flynn, former mayor of Boston and U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See[97]
- Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City[98]
- Konstantina Lukes, Democratic City Councilor and former Mayor of Worcester[99]
- Edward Caulfield, Democratic City Councilor and former Mayor of Lowell[100]
- Bob Haas, City Councilor and former Mayor of Revere[101]
- Rita Mercier, Democratic City Councilor and former Mayor of Lowell[102]
- Marcus DiNatale, City Councilor of Fitchburg[93]
- Rosemary Reynolds, City Councilor of Fitchburg[93]
- Charles Ryan, Democratic former Mayor of Springfield[103]
- Dean Tran, City Councilor of Fitchburg[93]
- Michael Knapik, State Senator, 2nd Hampden and Hampshire District[104]
- Bradley Jones, Jr., Minority Leader of the Massachusetts House of Representatives[96]
- Christopher Fallon, Democratic State Representative, 33rd Middlesex District[105]
- Kimberly Ferguson, State Representative, 1st Worcester District[106]
- David Nangle, Democratic State Representative, 17th Middlesex District[107]
- Shaunna O'Connell, State Representative, 3rd Bristol District[108]
- Keiko Orrall, State Representative, 12th Bristol District[108]
- Donald Wong, State Representative, 9th Essex District[109]
- Bob Ambler, Democratic former state representative[96]
- Arthur Broadhurst, Democratic former state representative[94]
- Robert A. Antonioni, Democratic former state senator[110]
- Paul C. Casey, Democratic former state representative[111]
- Robert Durand, Democratic former state representative[112]
- Larry Giordano, Democratic former state representative[113]
- Geoff Hall, Democratic former state representative[114]
- Marie Parente, Democratic former state representative[115]
- Karyn Polito, former state representative[116]
- Philip Travis, Democratic former state representative[113]
- Anthony Verga, Democratic former state representative[117]
- Patricia Pope, Democratic City Council President of Marlborough[118]
- Richard Caraviello, Democratic City Councilor from Medford[119]
- Joseph M. Giordano Jr., Democratic City Councilor from Waltham[120]
- John Leahy, City Councilor from Lowell[100]
- John Lizak, Democratic Springfield City Councilor[121]
- Ira Novoselsky, City Councilor from Revere[101]
- Charlie Patch, City Councilor from Revere[101]
- David Pottier, Taunton City Councilor[108]
- Sefatia Romeo Theken, Independent City Councilor from Gloucester[117]
- Tim Rooke, Democratic Springfield City Councilor[121]
- Tim Ryan, Democratic former Springfield City Councilor[122]
- Ken Shea, Democratic Springfield City Councilor[121]
- Tony Zambuto, Councilor from Revere[101]
- Tom Hodgson, Bristol County Sheriff[123]
- Lewis Evangelidis, Worcester County Sheriff[124]
- Paul Walsh, Democratic former District Attorney of Bristol County[125]
- Mary-Ellen Manning, Democratic Massachusetts Governor's Council Member[126]
- Ginger Esty, Selectman from Framingham[127]
- Anthony M. Renzoni, Selectman from Holden[106]
- Pete Murphy, Democratic Springfield School Committeeman[121]
Labor unions
- Boston Police Superior Officers Federation[128]
- Commissioned Officers Association of the Massachusetts State Police[128]
- Fraternal Order of Police[128]
- Lowell Police Patrolmen's Association[129]
- Lowell Police Superior Officer's Association[130]
- Massachusetts Municipal Police Coalition[131]
- Massachusetts Police Association[128]
- Massachusetts Police Chiefs Association[128]
- MBTA Police Sergeants Association[128]
- MBTA Police Patrolmen's Association[128]
- New England Police Benevolent Association[128]
- Medford Police Patrolmen's Union[132]
- Milford Police Association[133]
- State Police Association of Massachusetts[134]
- Worcester's New England Police Benevolent Association[135]
- Worcester Police Patrolman's Union[128]
Military
- Thomas G. Kelley, Medal of Honor recipient and former Massachusetts Secretary of Veterans' Services[136]
- Thomas J. Hudner, Jr., Medal of Honor recipient[136]
- Kevin Hillery, first paraplegic to graduate from the U.S. Naval Academy[137]
Newspapers
Celebrities and prominent individuals
- Bob Cousy, retired Boston Celtics player[150]
- Drew Bledsoe, retired New England Patriots player[151]
- JoJo White, retired Boston Celtics player[151]
- Steve DeOssie, retired New England Patriots player[151]
- Fred Smerlas, retired New England Patriots player[151]
- Dave Cowens, retired Boston Celtics player[151]
- Carl Gentile, former president of Teamsters Local 170 in Worcester[152]
- Thomas Colombo, Stephen Marciano & Peter Marciano, family of boxer Rocky Marciano[153]
- Laurie Myers, President and founder of Community VOICES[154][155]
- Wendy Murphy, Newspaper columnist and co-host on WRKO talk radio[156]
- Patrick McCabe, Deputy Fire Chief of Lowell[100]
- Stephanie Pickup, author and co-founder of Our Heroes' Tree[157][158]
- Lenny Clarke, comedian[159]
- Steve Grogan, retired New England Patriots player[160]
- Rob Gray, a GOP strategist and media consultant[161]
Organizations
- Log Cabin Republicans[162]
- Americans for Legal Immigration[163]
- National Federation of Independent Business[164]
- United States Chamber of Commerce[165]
- Massachusetts Citizens for Life[166]
- Republican Majority for Choice[167]
- GOProud[168]
- Humane Society Legislative Fund[169]
- ConservAmerica[170]
Rescinded
- Micky Ward, boxer[171]
Politicians
- Barack Obama, President of the United States[172]
- Bill Clinton, former President of the United States[173]
- John Kerry, U.S. Senator (D-MA)[174]
- Al Franken, U.S. Senator (D-MN)[175]
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator (I-VT)[176]
- Jeanne Shaheen, U.S. Senator (D-NH)[177]
- Barbara Mikulski, U.S. Senator (D-MD)[178]
- Russ Feingold, former U.S. Senator (D-WI)[179]
- Bill Bradley, former U.S. Senator (D-NJ)[180]
- Max Cleland, former U.S. Senator (D-GA)[181]
- Deval Patrick, Governor of Massachusetts[182]
- Michael Dukakis, former Governor of Massachusetts[183]
- Tim Murray, Lieutenant Governor of Massachusetts[184]
- Howard Dean, 2004 Presidential Candidate and former governor of Vermont and Chairman of the DNC[185]
- John Olver, member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Massachusetts[186]
- Richard Neal, member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Massachusetts[187]
- Jim McGovern, member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Massachusetts[188]
- Barney Frank, member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Massachusetts[189]
- Niki Tsongas, member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Massachusetts[190]
- Rosa DeLauro, member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Connecticut[187]
- John Lewis, member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Georgia[191]
- Patrick J. Kennedy, former U.S. Representative from Rhode Island and son of Ted Kennedy[192]
- Thomas Menino, Mayor of Boston[193]
- Setti Warren, Mayor of Newton[19]
- Kimberley Driscoll, Mayor of Salem[194]
- Carolyn Kirk, Mayor of Gloucester[195]
- Joseph Curtatone, Mayor of Somerville[194]
- James Fiorentini, Mayor of Haverhill[194]
- Thatcher W. Kezer III, Mayor of Amesbury[194]
- David Narkewicz, Mayor of Northampton[196]
- Patrick O. Murphy, Mayor of Lowell[197]
- Gary Christenson, Mayor of Malden[198]
- William Scanlon, Jr., Mayor of Beverly[199]
- Michael J. McGlynn, Mayor of Medford[200]
- Michael A. Tautznik, Mayor of Easthampton[196]
- Stephen Zanni, Mayor of Methuen[201]
- Domenic Sarno, Mayor of Springfield[202]
- Alex Morse, Mayor of Holyoke[203]
- Jonathan Mitchell, Mayor of New Bedford[204]
- Joseph Petty, Mayor of Worcester[184]
- Joseph C. O'Brien, former Mayor of Worcester[205]
- John B. Anderson, former Mayor of Worcester[205]
- Paul Mullaney, former Mayor of Worcester[205]
- Raymond Mariano, former Mayor of Worcester[205]
- Bill Manzi, former Mayor of Methuen[201]
- Sharon Pollard, former Mayor of Methuen[201]
- Therese Murray, President of the Massachusetts Senate, Plymouth and Barnstable District[194]
- Stan Rosenberg, President Pro Tempore of the Massachusetts Senate, Hampshire and Franklin District[196]
- Robert DeLeo, Speaker of the Massachusetts House of Representatives, 19th Suffolk District[194]
- Tom Conroy, State Representative, 13th Middlesex District[206]
- Ellen Story, State Representative, 3rd Hampshire District[196]
- John Scibak, State Representative, 2nd Hampshire District[196]
- Kamala Harris, Attorney General of California[207]
- Kathleen Sebelius, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services and former governor of Kansas[208]
- Sheila Bair, Republican former Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation[209]
- Robert Garvey, Sheriff of Hampshire County[196]
- David E. Sullivan, District Attorney of Northwestern District of Hampshire and Franklin Counties[196]
- Alan Khazei, social entrepreneur[210]
- James Coyne King, corporate lawyer[211]
Labor unions
- Professional Fire Fighters of Massachusetts[212]
- Massachusetts Nurses Association[213]
- National Education Association[214]
- Massachusetts Service Employees International Union[215]
- Massachusetts AFL-CIO[216]
- United Auto Workers[217]
Religious leaders
- Bob Massie, priest, author, and social activist[210]
- Archbishop Timothy Paul Baymon, President of the Council of Churches of Greater Springfield[218]
- Reverend Talbert Swan, President of the Springfield NAACP[218]
- Reverend Jeffrey Brown, co-founder and Executive Director of the Boston TenPoint Coalition[219]
- Reverend Eugene Rivers, co-founder of the Boston TenPoint Coalition[219]
Newspapers
Celebrities and prominent individuals
- Joseph P. Kennedy III, candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives from Massachusetts[227]
- Cher, singer and actress[228]
- Ben Affleck, actor[229]
- Jennifer Garner, actress[229]
- Caroline Kennedy, daughter of John F. Kennedy[230]
- Sandra Fluke, Women's rights activist[231]
- Bruce Springsteen, singer[232]
- James Taylor, singer[233]
- Edward M. Kennedy, Jr., investment banker and son of Ted Kennedy[234]
Organizations
- Sierra Club[235]
- Clean Water Action[235]
- Planned Parenthood[236]
- National Organization for Women[237]
- Human Rights Campaign[238]
- EMILY's List[239]
- Massachusetts Credit Union League[240]
- Massachusetts Democratic Party[241]
- Democracy for America[242]
- Young Democrats of America[243]
- Council for a Livable World[244]
- Progressive Democrats of America[245]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[246]
Debates
Both candidates agreed to four televised debates, three of which were held. The candidates agreed to a fourth debate which was to be held on October 30 in WGBH-TV's studio, hosted by a Boston mediaB consortium, and moderated by John King, but the day before both pulled out due to Hurricane Sandy.[247][248] Victoria Kennedy, widow of Ted Kennedy, had proposed an additional debate with Tom Brokaw as moderator, however Brown would only accept the invitation if she pledged not to endorse Brown's opponent; which she refused.[249][250]
Debate 1: September 20 at WBZ-TV studio, hosted by WBZ and WBZ Newsradio 1030. Moderated by the station's political reporter Jon Keller.[251][252]
Debate 2: October 1 at UMass Lowell, co-hosted by UMass and The Boston Herald. Moderated by David Gregory.[253]
Debate 3: October 10 at Springfield Symphony Hall, hosted by a Western MassachusettsA consortium. Moderated by WGBY-TV's Jim Madigan.[254]
Fundraising
The election cost approximately $82 million, making it the most expensive election in Massachusetts' history and of any Congressional race in history as well as the second-most expensive election in the 2012 election cycle, behind only the 2012 presidential election.[255][256]
The People's Pledge
Both Warren and Brown stated early in the race that they would not accept television advertisement assistance from Super PACs and interest groups. On January 23, 2012, both candidates signed the agreement, or People's Pledge. While no outside groups were obligated by the agreement, both candidates agreed to donate a sum equal to 50% of an advertisement run by any groups to a charity of the other candidate's choice.[257] The pledge was broken twice, by Brown supporters. In March the American Petroleum Institute and Coalition of Americans for Political Equality launched ads supporting Brown, and as a result, the Brown campaign agreed to make donations of $1,000 and $34,545, respectively, to the charity of Warren's choice: the Autism Consortium.[258][259]
Top donors
- Contributions by affiliationC
Source: Center for Responsive Politics
Scott Brown | Elizabeth Warren | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Contributor | Contribution | Contributor | Contribution | |
Fidelity Investments | $289,455 | EMILY's List | $507,095 | |
EMC Corporation | $169,800 | Moveon.org | $448,517 | |
Goldman Sachs | $119,400 | Harvard University | $304,050 | |
VoteSane PAC | $113,250 | MIT | $77,200 | |
State Street Corp | $106,650 | Boston University | $73,700 | |
MassMutual | $106,198 | Brown Rudnick LLP | $68,077 | |
Raytheon | $89,350 | University of California | $63,600 | |
Liberty Mutual | $85,500 | League of Conservation Voters | $54,551 | |
JPMorgan Chase | $80,855 | Ropes & Gray | $52,950 | |
PricewaterhouseCoopers | $79,800 | Thornton & Naumes | $44,450 |
- Contributions by industry
Source: Center for Responsive Politics
Scott Brown | Elizabeth Warren | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Industry | Contribution | Industry | Contribution | |
Retired | $3,574,088 | Retired | $3,374,569 | |
Securities & Investment | $3,370,618 | Lawyers/Law Firms | $2,196,972 | |
Lawyers/Law Firms | $1,332,582 | Women's Issues | $1,588,383 | |
Real Estate | $1,192,258 | Education | $1,335,058 | |
Insurance | $914,504 | Democratic/Liberal | $1,253,375 | |
Health Professionals | $877,878 | Securities & Investment | $534,275 | |
Misc Finance | $828,501 | TV/Movies/Music | $476,814 | |
Business Services | $661,647 | Health Professionals | $456,006 | |
Computer industry/Internet | $637,825 | Business Services | $455,291 | |
Republican/Conservative | $616,158 | Printing & Publishing | $387,031 |
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[260] | Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[261] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2012 |
Rothenberg Political Report[262] | Tilt D (flip) | November 2, 2012 |
Real Clear Politics[263] | Tossup | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Scott Brown (R) |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W. New England U. | March 6–10, 2011 | 472 RV | ±4.5% | 51% | 34% | — | 14% |
Public Policy Polling | June 2–5, 2011 | 957 RV | ±3.2% | 47% | 32% | — | 21% |
WBUR MassInc | August 30 – September 1, 2011 | 500 | ±4.4% | 44% | 35% | 2% | 19% |
Public Policy Polling | September 16–18, 2011 | 957 RV | ±3.2% | 44% | 46% | — | 10% |
UMass Lowell | September 22–28, 2011 | 1,005 RV | ±3.8% | 41% | 38% | 3% | 14% |
W. New England U. | September 29 – October 5, 2011 | 475 RV | ±4.5% | 47% | 42% | — | 10% |
YouGov for UMass Amherst | November 9–22, 2011 | 433 RV | ±4.4% | 39% | 43% | 4% | 14% |
UMass Lowell / Boston Herald | December 1–6, 2011 | 505 RV | ±5.3% | 42% | 49% | 3% | 6% |
Opinion Dynamics for Mass Insight | January 31 – February 4, 2012 | 456 RV | ±4.6% | 52% | 42% | — | 6% |
MassINC for WBUR | February 6–9, 2012 | 505 LV | ±4.4% | 43% | 46% | 1% | 11% |
Suffolk/WHDH | February 11–15, 2012 | 600 LV | ±4% | 49% | 40% | 2% | 9% |
Rasmussen Reports | February 29, 2012 | 500 LV | ±4.5% | 49% | 44% | 2% | 5% |
W. New England U. | February 23 – March 1, 2012 | 527 RV | ±4.3% | 49% | 41% | — | 10% |
Public Policy Polling | March 16–18, 2012 | 936 RV | ±3.2% | 41% | 46% | — | 13% |
Boston Globe | March 21–27, 2012 | 544 LV | ±4.2% | 37% | 35% | — | 26% |
Rasmussen Reports | April 9, 2012 | 500 LV | ±4.5% | 45% | 46% | 1% | 8% |
MassINC for MassLive | April 25–28, 2012 | 438 LV | ±4.7% | 41% | 43% | 1% | 12% |
Rasmussen Reports | May 7, 2012 | 500 LV | ±4.5% | 45% | 45% | 2% | 8% |
Suffolk/WHDH | May 20–22, 2012 | 600 LV | ±4% | 48% | 47% | — | 5% |
Boston Globe | May 25–31, 2012 | 651 LV | ±3.8% | 39% | 37% | 2% | 23% |
W. New England U. | May 29–31, 2012 | 504 RV | ±4.4% | 43% | 45% | — | 11% |
Public Policy Polling | June 22–24, 2012 | 902 RV | ±3.3% | 46% | 46% | — | 8% |
MassINC | July 19–22, 2012 | 445 RV | ±4.4% | 38% | 40% | — | 16% |
Public Policy Polling | August 16–19, 2012 | 1,115 LV | ±4.4% | 49% | 44% | — | 8% |
Kimball Political Consulting | August 21, 2012 | 1,500 RV | ±4% | 49% | 43% | — | 9% |
Kimball Political Consulting | September 7–9, 2012 | 756 LV | ±3.5% | 46% | 45% | — | 9% |
W. New England U. | September 6–13, 2012 | 444 LV | ±4.6% | 44% | 50% | — | 6% |
Public Policy Polling | September 13–16, 2012 | 876 LV | ±3.3% | 46% | 48% | — | 6% |
Suffolk/WHDH | September 13–16, 2012 | 600 LV | ±4% | 44% | 48% | — | 8% |
UMass Lowell / Boston Herald | September 13–17, 2012 | 497 LV | ±4% | 49% | 45% | 1% | 4% |
MassINC for WBUR | September 15–17, 2012 | 507 LV | ±4.4% | 40% | 45% | 2% | 12% |
Kimball Political Consulting | September 20, 2012 | 868 LV | ±3.25% | 48% | 47% | 1% | 3% |
UMass Lowell / Boston Herald | September 20, 2012 | 524 RV | ±5.3% | 50% | 44% | 1% | 5% |
Rasmussen Reports | September 24, 2012 | 500 LV | ±4.5% | 48% | 48% | — | 5% |
Boston Globe | September 21–27, 2012 | 502 LV | ±4.4% | 38% | 43% | 1% | 18% |
WBUR | September 26–28, 2012 | 504 LV | ±4.4% | 45% | 49% | 1% | 6% |
Opinion Dynamics for Mass Insight | September 25–30, 2012 | 329 LV | ±5.4% | 44% | 48% | — | 8% |
W. New England U. | September 28 – October 4, 2012 | 440 LV | ±4.3% | 45% | 50% | — | 5% |
MassINC for WBUR | October 5–7, 2012 | 501 LV | ±4.4% | 48% | 45% | 1% | 8% |
YouGov for UMass Amherst | October 2–8, 2012 | 436 LV | ±5.4% | 45% | 48% | — | 6% |
Rasmussen Reports | October 10, 2012 | 500 LV | ±4.5% | 47% | 49% | — | 4% |
YouGov | October 4–11, 2012 | 669 LV | ±4.9% | 39% | 46% | — | 15% |
Public Policy Polling | October 9–11, 2012 | 1,051 LV | ±3% | 44% | 50% | — | 6% |
Public Policy Polling for the LCV | October 15–16, 2012 | 709 LV | ±3.5% | 44% | 53% | — | — |
Kimball Political Consulting | October 18–21, 2012 | 761 LV | ±3.5% | 45% | 48% | — | 7% |
MassINC for WBUR | October 21–22, 2012 | 516 LV | ±4.4% | 44% | 50% | 1% | 4% |
Rasmussen Reports | October 25, 2012 | 500 LV | ±4.5% | 47% | 52% | — | — |
Boston Globe | October 24–28, 2012 | 583 LV | ±4.1% | 47% | 47% | — | 6% |
Suffolk/WHDH | October 25–28, 2012 | 600 LV | ±4% | 46% | 53% | — | 1% |
W. New England U. | October 26 – November 1, 2012 | 535 LV | ±4% | 46% | 50% | — | 4% |
Public Policy Polling | November 1–2, 2012 | 1,089 LV | ±3% | 46% | 52% | — | 2% |
UMass Lowell/Boston Herald | October 31 – November 3, 2012 | 800 LV | ±4.1% | 49% | 48% | 1% | 1% |
* RV= Registered voters; LV= Likely voters
Results
Despite the Obama campaign's easy victory in the state, and winning all of the state's counties, this race was fairly close. As expected, Warren performed very well in Suffolk County, which is home to the state's largest city and its capital Boston. Brown performed well in the southern part of the state near Cape Cod. Warren made history by becoming the first Massachusetts woman elected to the U.S. Senate.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Elizabeth Warren | 1,696,346 | 53.74 | +6.67 | |
Republican | Scott Brown (incumbent) | 1,458,048 | 46.19 | -5.64 | |
Write-in | 2,159 | 0.07 | +0.02 | ||
Total votes | 3,156,553 | 100.00 | N/A | ||
Democratic gain from Republican |
Aftermath
The People's Pledge was a popular concept, which Common Cause proposed being implemented in other races. The pledge also resulted in fewer attack ads on the airwaves.[265]
Less than two months after the election, President Barack Obama nominated Senator John Kerry to become United States Secretary of State. Kerry was sworn in on February 1, making newly inaugurated Warren the state's senior Senator, and the Senate's most-junior senior senator.[266] In the special election to replace Kerry the following year, Democratic nominee Ed Markey asked his Republican rival Gabriel E. Gomez to sign a similar pledge with him, although Gomez refused.[267]
The election was a critical event in both candidates' political careers, with Warren becoming a political icon after entering the Senate, and being drafted to run for president in 2016 and eventually running in 2020.[268] After the election loss, Brown was considered the most prominent Republican in Massachusetts and heavily favored to run in the special Senate election the following year or for Governor in 2014,[6][269] though he declined to do either.[270][271] He instead moved to New Hampshire and ran for the Senate there in 2014 against Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen.[272] He lost, 51% to 48%, becoming the first male candidate to lose two Senate races to female candidates.[273]
See also
References
Notes
- A.^ The Western Massachusetts consortium consists of The Republican, Daily Hampshire Gazette, New England Public Radio, Valley Press Club, Springfield Public Forum, WSHM-LD, WWLP-TV, WGGB-TV, WGBY-TV, Western New England University, and University of Massachusetts Amherst.[274]
- B.^ The Boston media consortium consists of WGBH-TV/WGBH FM, WBUR, New England Cable News, WCVB-TV, WHDH, and The Boston Globe.[248]
- C.^ The organizations themselves did not donate, rather the money came from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families. Organization totals include subsidiaries and affiliates.
Citations
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officials involved in her hiring at Harvard, the University of Pennsylvania, the University of Texas and the University of Houston Law Center all said that she was hired because she was an outstanding teacher, and that her lineage was either not discussed or not a factor
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External links
- Election Division at the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth
- Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
- Outside spending at the Sunlight Foundation
- Candidate issue positions at On the Issues