2012 Montana gubernatorial election
The 2012 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Montana. Incumbent Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term.
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 County results Bullock: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Hill: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Montana |
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Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary with 87% of the vote and former U.S. Representative Rick Hill won the Republican primary with 34% of the vote. In the general election, Bullock won by 7,571 votes, taking 48.9% of the vote to Hill's 47.3%.[1] Due to the close margin, media outlets did not call the race for Bullock until the next day.[2]
Democratic primary
Declared
- Running mate: John Walsh, Brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard[4]
- Heather Margolis, Montana representative for community service organization ServeNext
- Running mate: Steve Nelsen, founder of the Montana Conservation Corps[5]
Withdrew
- Larry Jent, state senator[6]
Declined
- John Bohlinger, Lieutenant Governor of Montana[7]
- Carl Borgquist, president of Grasslands Renewable Energy of Bozeman[7]
- Dave Wanzenried, state senator[8]
- Pat Williams, former U.S. Representative[9]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock |
Larry Jent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 573 | ± 4.1% | 70% | 6% | — | 24% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Bullock | 76,738 | 86.6 | |
| Democratic | Heather Margolis | 11,823 | 13.4 | |
| Total votes | 88,561 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Declared
- Bob Fanning, retired businessman[11]
- Running mate: Joel Boniek, former state representative[12]
- Former running mate: Chuck Baldwin, pastor and Constitution Party nominee for president in 2008 (dropped out February 2012)[13]
- Neil Livingstone, terrorism and national security analyst[16]
- Running mate: Ryan Zinke, state senator[17]
- Jim Lynch, former Montana Department of Transportation director[18]
- Running mate: Al Olszewski, orthopedic surgeon and Carroll College Trustee[19]
- Ken Miller, former state senator and former chairman of the Montana Republican Party[20]
- Running mate: Bill Gallagher, Public Service Commissioner[21]
- Jim O'Hara, Chouteau County Commissioner[22]
- Running mate: Scott Swingley, private investigator and former trooper in the Montana Highway Patrol[23]
- Corey Stapleton, former state senator[24]
- Running mate: Bob Keenan, former President of the Montana Senate[25]
Withdrew
- Jeff Essmann, Majority Leader of the Montana Senate[26]
- Drew Turiano, real estate investor[27]
Declined
- Denny Rehberg, U.S. Representative (ran for the U.S. Senate)[28]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Essmann |
Bob Fanning |
Rick Hill |
Neil Livingstone |
Jim Lynch |
Ken Miller |
Jim O'Hara |
Corey Stapleton |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 403 | ± 4.88% | — | 1% | 33% | 5% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 7% | 35% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 5% | 1% | 37% | 3% | 4% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 35% |
Results
Primary results by county:
Hill
- Hill—51-60%
- Hill—41-50%
- Hill—31-40%
- Hill—21-30%
Stapleton
- Stapleton—31-40%
- Stapleton—21-30%
Miller
- Miller—51-60%
- Miller—41-50%
- Miller—31-40%
- Miller—21-30%
O'Hara
- O'Hara—51-60%
- O'Hara—31-40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rick Hill | 46,802 | 34.4 | |
| Republican | Corey Stapleton | 24,661 | 18.1 | |
| Republican | Ken Miller | 24,496 | 18.0 | |
| Republican | Jim O'Hara | 16,653 | 12.2 | |
| Republican | Neil Livingstone | 12,038 | 8.8 | |
| Republican | Jim Lynch | 8,323 | 6.1 | |
| Republican | Bob Fanning | 3,087 | 2.3 | |
| Total votes | 136,060 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Candidates
- Steve Bullock (D), Montana Attorney General
- Running mate: John Walsh, Brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard
- Rick Hill (R), former U.S. Representative
- Running mate: Jon Sonju, state senator
- Ron Vandevender (Libertarian), businessman[29]
- Running mate: Marc Mulcahy[12]
Debate
- Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, October 10, 2012
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[30] | Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] | Lean R | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[32] | Tossup | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[33] | Tossup | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | November 2–3, 2012 | 836 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 29–31, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 2% | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 8–10, 2012 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 7% |
| Montana State University | September 27–30, 2012 | 477 | ± 4.6% | 38% | 40% | 2% | 20% |
| Mason-Dixon | September 17–19, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 43% | 2% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 10–11, 2012 | 656 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 39% | 8% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 39% | — | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 38% | 39% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 39% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ± 2.9% | 31% | 41% | — | 28% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Bullock | 236,450 | 48.90% | -16.57% | |
| Republican | Rick Hill | 228,879 | 47.34% | +14.82% | |
| Libertarian | Ron Vandevender | 18,160 | 3.76% | +1.75% | |
| Total votes | 483,489 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
References
- Michael Barone, et al. The Almanac of American Politics 2014 (2013) (Kindle Locations 48242-48245).
- https://mtstandard.com/news/state-and-regional/networks-declare-bullock-winner-in-tight-race-for-governor/article_612a52fb-6e9e-59a0-9707-a99cba364cfd.html
- Catanese, David (September 7, 2011). "Bullock joins Montana governor's race". Politico. Retrieved September 7, 2011.
- Johnson, Charles S. (March 9, 2012). "Bullock makes pick of Walsh as running mate official". Independent Record. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- Banks, Marnee (March 12, 2012). "Democrats Margolis & Nelsen enter race for MT Governor". KXLF-TV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
- Johnson, Charles S. (March 8, 2012). "Jent drops out of governor's race, leaving Bullock as lone Democrat". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 9, 2012.
- Johnson, Charles S. (June 12, 2011). "Bohlinger, Essmann eye governor's race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved June 15, 2011.
- Bureau, CHARLES S. JOHNSON Gazette State. "Wanzenried ends run for governor".
- Johnson, Charles S. (September 13, 2010). "Pat Williams not running for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- "2012 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Secretary of State of Montana. Archived from the original (PDF) on January 21, 2013. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
- Johnson, Charles S. (October 4, 2011). "3 more GOP candidates running for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved October 5, 2011.
- Banks, Marnee (March 12, 2012). "Long list of candidates running for U.S. House & MT Governor". KRTV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
- Banks, Marnee (February 13, 2012). "MT gubernatorial candidate Fanning loses running mate". KTVQ. Archived from the original on January 19, 2015. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- Johnson, Charles S. (November 6, 2010). "Former GOP U.S. Rep. Rick Hill to run for Montana governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- Reece, Myers (January 18, 2012). "Rick Hill Announces Jon Sonju as Gubernatorial Running Mate". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- "Terrorism expert files for Montana governor's race". Associated Press. February 12, 2011. Retrieved February 12, 2011.
- Johnson, Charles S. (July 10, 2011). "Livingstone taps Zinke as running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- "Jim Lynch announces candidacy for Governor". KTVQ. October 13, 2011. Archived from the original on October 23, 2011. Retrieved October 14, 2011.
- Sherman, David (March 12, 2012). "Lynch names Olszewski as running mate in MT governor race". KRTV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
- Dennison, Mike (August 9, 2010). "Republican former state senator from Laurel formally enters 2012 governor's race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- Reece, Myers (February 6, 2012). "Ken Miller Announces Bill Gallagher as Gubernatorial Running Mate". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- Keegan, Charlie (January 14, 2011). "Jim O'Hara Announces Candidacy for Governor". KFBB-TV. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- Johnson, Charles S. (February 7, 2012). "O'Hara picks retired MHP officer as running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- Johnson, Charles S. (July 19, 2010). "Stapleton bidding for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- Johnson, Charles S. (February 7, 2012). "Stapleton picks Keenan for running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- "Essmann drops out of GOP race for governor". Billingsgazette.com. Retrieved 5 January 2018.
- Johnson, Charles S. (November 11, 2010). "Rehberg focusing on current job". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- Johnson, Charles S. (March 1, 2012). "Governor candidates talk about state economy". Independent Record. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
- "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- "2012 Statewide General Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 13, 2019.
External links
- Official campaign websites (Archived)
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