2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota
The 2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Minnesota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Minnesota has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]
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| Turnout | 79.96% (of eligible voters) [1]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 County Results
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| Elections in Minnesota |
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Polls of Minnesota voters throughout the campaign showed a clear Biden lead. Prior to the election, 15 out of 16 news organizations projected Minnesota as leaning towards Biden, or a lean blue state. Minnesota was ultimately carried by Biden by a 7.12% margin, significantly improving over Hillary Clinton's narrow 1.52% margin in 2016. Biden's win marked the twelfth consecutive Democratic presidential win in the state, which has not voted for a Republican since Richard Nixon in 1972. Biden's comfortable margin notwithstanding, Minnesota was the state that came second-closest to flipping from blue to red in 2020, with only Nevada coming closer.
Biden flipped four counties Trump carried in 2016: Clay, Nicollet, Blue Earth, and Winona, all of which were won by Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Key to Biden's success was his performance in the Twin Cities metro area;[4] he outperformed both Clinton and Obama (in either 2008 or 2012) there. His vote share in Hennepin was the highest of any nominee's since Theodore Roosevelt's in 1904. He also improved on Clinton's performance in the Iron Range,[5] although his performance in St Louis, Lake, and Carlton Counties was still well below what Democrats had historically been getting since the New Deal realignment up through 2012. In fact, this was the first time a Republican received greater than 70% of the vote in a Northern Minnesota county since Herbert Hoover in 1928.
In addition, Biden managed to flip Minnesota's 2nd congressional district, which houses some of the Twin Cities' southern suburbs, by 6.8 points, after Trump narrowly won it by 1.2 points in the last election.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden carried 51% of Whites and 55% of union households.[6] Trump's areas of strength were in the more rural regions of Greater Minnesota.[7]
Primary elections
Republican primary
The Republican primary took place on March 3, 2020. Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 137,275 | 97.7 | 39 |
| Bill Weld (write-in) | 443 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Rocky De La Fuente (write-in) | 16 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Other write-ins | 2,821 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Total | 140,555 | 100.0 | 39 (of 39) |
Democratic primary
The Democratic primary took place on March 3, 2020. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and former Vice President Joe Biden were among the major declared candidates.[10] Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota since 2007, expressed interest in running, and formally declared her candidacy in February 2019,[11][12][13] but then withdrew prior to Minnesota's race.
Biden won the most delegates.[14]
%252C_2020.svg.png.webp)
Popular vote share by county
Map legend
- Biden—60–70%
- Biden—50–60%
- Biden—40–50%
- Biden—30–40%
- Sanders—<30%
- Sanders—30–40%
- Klobuchar—<30%
- Klobuchar—30–40%
- Klobuchar—40–50%
Popular vote share by congressional district
Map legend
- Biden—40–50%
- Biden—30–40%
- Sanders—30–40%
15 candidates and an uncommitted option were on the ballot.[15] Candidates' names remain on the ballot even if the candidate has suspended/ended his/her campaign before the primary.
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[17] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 287,553 | 38.64 | 38 |
| Bernie Sanders | 222,431 | 29.89 | 27 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 114,674 | 15.41 | 10 |
| Michael Bloomberg | 61,882 | 8.32 | 0 |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†) | 41,530 | 5.58 | 0 |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) | 7,616 | 1.02 | 0 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 2,504 | 0.34 | 0 |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn†) | 1,749 | 0.24 | 0 |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) | 551 | 0.07 | 0 |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn†) | 315 | 0.04 | 0 |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 226 | 0.03 | 0 |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 197 | 0.03 | 0 |
| John Delaney (withdrawn†) | 172 | 0.02 | 0 |
| Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 114 | 0.02 | 0 |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn†) | 72 | 0.01 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 2,612 | 0.35 | 0 |
| Total | 744,198 | 100% | 75 |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Princeton Electoral Consortium[18] | Safe D | September 17, 2020 |
| The Cook Political Report[19] | Lean D | September 10, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[20] | Likely D | September 4, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] | Likely D | October 1, 2020 |
| Politico[22] | Lean D | September 8, 2020 |
| RCP[23] | Tossup | October 25, 2020 |
| Niskanen[24] | Likely D | July 26, 2020 |
| CNN[25] | Lean D | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[26] | Likely D | September 2, 2020 |
| CBS News[27] | Lean D | August 16, 2020 |
| 270towin[28] | Lean D | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News[29] | Lean D | July 31, 2020 |
| NPR[30] | Lean D | August 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[31] | Lean D | August 6, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[32] | Safe D | November 1, 2020 |
| JHK Forecasts[33] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
Polling
- Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win | October 11–30, 2020 | November 1, 2020 | 50.6% | 42.2% | 7.2% | Biden +8.4 |
| Real Clear Politics | October 15–27, 2020 | November 1, 2020 | 48.0% | 43.7% | 8.3% | Biden +4.3 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until October 31, 2020 | November 1, 2020 | 51.7% | 42.6% | 5.7% | Biden +9.1 |
| Average | 50.1% | 42.8% | 7.1% | Biden +7.3 | ||
- Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 3,031 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 41%[lower-alpha 3] | 56% | - | - | – | – |
| Research Co. | Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 45% | 54% | - | - | 1%[lower-alpha 4] | 4% |
| Data for Progress | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 1,259 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 51% | 4% | 2% | 1%[lower-alpha 5] | – |
| Swayable | Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 | 466 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 43% | 53% | 4% | 0% | – | – |
| Morning Consult | Oct 22–31, 2020 | 883 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling | Oct 29–30, 2020 | 770 (V) | – | 43% | 54% | - | - | 2%[lower-alpha 6] | 1% |
| Targoz Market Research/PollSmart | Oct 25–30, 2020 | 1,138 (LV) | – | 44% | 53% | - | - | 3%[lower-alpha 7] | – |
| St. Cloud State University | Oct 10–29, 2020 | 372 (A) | ± 6.7% | 39% | 54% | - | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 5,498 (LV) | – | 42% | 55% | - | - | – | – |
| SurveyUSA/KSTP/ABC6 News | Oct 23–27, 2020 | 649 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 47% | - | - | 5%[lower-alpha 8] | 6% |
| Gravis Marketing | Oct 24–26, 2020 | 657 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 39% | 53% | - | - | – | 8% |
| Trafalgar Group | Oct 24–25, 2020 | 1,065 (LV) | ± 2.92% | 45% | 48% | 2% | - | 4%[lower-alpha 9] | 1% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | Oct 17–20, 2020 | 840 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 53% | - | - | 3%[lower-alpha 10] | 1% |
| SurveyUSA/KSTP | Oct 16–20, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 5% | 42% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
| Morning Consult | Oct 11–20, 2020 | 864 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
| Change Research/MinnPost | Oct 12–15, 2020[lower-alpha 11] | 1,021 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 49% | 2% | 0% | 2%[lower-alpha 12] | 2% |
| David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America | Oct 10–13, 2020 | 200 (LV) | – | 41% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Morning Consult | Oct 2–11, 2020 | 898 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
| SurveyUSA/ABC6 News | Oct 1–6, 2020 | 929 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 40% | 47% | - | - | 3%[lower-alpha 13] | 10% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 2,808 (LV) | – | 43% | 55% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Suffolk University | Sep 20–24, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 47% | 2% | 0% | 4%[lower-alpha 14] | 6% |
| Mason-Dixon/StarTribune /MPR News/KARE 11 |
Sep 21–23, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 48% | - | - | 2% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Sep 12–17, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.66% | 42% | 51% | 0% | 0% | 1%[lower-alpha 15] | 5% |
| ABC/Washington Post | Sep 8–13, 2020 | 615 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 41% | 57% | - | - | 1%[lower-alpha 16] | 1% |
| Morning Consult | Sep 4–13, 2020 | 643 (LV) | ± 4% | 44%[lower-alpha 17] | 48% | - | - | 2%[lower-alpha 18] | 6% |
| YouGov/CBS | Sep 9–11, 2020 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 50% | - | - | 2%[lower-alpha 19] | 6% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | Sep 8–10, 2020 | 814 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 50% | 2% | 1% | 0%[lower-alpha 20] | 5%[lower-alpha 21] |
| SurveyUSA | Sep 4–7, 2020 | 553 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 40% | 49% | - | - | 4%[lower-alpha 22] | 7% |
| Morning Consult | Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020 | 649 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 44%[lower-alpha 23] | 49% | - | - | – | – |
| PPP | Sep 3–4, 2020 | 877 (V) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 52% | - | - | 3%[lower-alpha 24] | 1% |
| Harper Polling/Jason Lewis[upper-alpha 1] | Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 45% | 48% | – | – | – | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 1,939 (LV) | – | 43% | 56% | - | - | – | 1% |
| Morning Consult | Aug 21–30, 2020 | 647 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 43% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
| Trafalgar Group | Aug 15–18, 2020 | 1,141 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | 4% | - | 1%[lower-alpha 25] | 2% |
| Morning Consult | Aug 7–16, 2020 | 615 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 42% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
| Emerson College | Aug 8–10, 2020 | 733 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49%[lower-alpha 26] | 51% | - | - | – | – |
| David Binder Research | Jul 30–31, 2020 | 200 (LV) | – | 36% | 54% | - | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 2,288 (LV) | – | 47% | 51% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Morning Consult | Jul 17–26, 2020 | 662 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 47% | - | - | – | – |
| Trafalgar Group | Jul 23–25, 2020 | 1,129 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 49% | 2% | - | 3%[lower-alpha 27] | 2% |
| Public Policy Polling/Giffords[upper-alpha 2] | Jul 22–23, 2020 | 1,218 (V) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 52% | - | - | – | 6% |
| FOX News | Jul 18–20, 2020 | 776 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 51% | - | - | 6%[lower-alpha 28] | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 860 (LV) | – | 42% | 57% | - | - | – | 1% |
| Gravis Marketing | Jun 19, 2020 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42%[lower-alpha 29] | 58%[lower-alpha 30] | - | - | – | – |
| Morning Consult | May 27– Jun 5, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
| Harper Polling/Jason Lewis[upper-alpha 1] | May 26–28, 2020 | 510 (LV) | – | 42% | 50% | – | – | – | 8% |
| Morning Consult | May 17–26, 2020 | 647 (LV) | – | 42% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
| Mason-Dixon/StarTribune /MPR News/KARE 11 |
May 18–20, 2020 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 49% | - | - | – | 7% |
| Morning Consult | May 7–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 38% | 55% | - | - | – | – |
| Mason-Dixon/StarTribune | Oct 14–16, 2019 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 50% | - | - | – | 12% |
Former candidates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Results
Results by precinct
Map legend
- Biden—40–50%
- Biden—50–60%
- Biden—60–70%
- Biden—70–80%
- Biden—80–90%
- Biden—90–100%
- Trump–40–50%
- Trump–50–60%
- Trump–60–70%
- Trump–70–80%
- Trump–80–90%
- Trump–90–100%
- Tie
- No Vote
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
1,717,077 | 52.40% | +5.96% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
1,484,065 | 45.28% | +0.35% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
34,976 | 1.07% | -2.77% | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
10,033 | 0.31% | -0.95% | |
| Independent | Kanye West Michelle Tidball |
7,940 | 0.24% | - | |
| Independent | Brock Pierce Karla Ballard |
5,651 | 0.17% | - | |
| Alliance | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson |
5,611 | 0.17% | - | |
| Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman |
1,210 | 0.04% | - | |
| Socialist Workers | Alyson Kennedy Malcolm Jarrett |
643 | 0.02% | -0.04% | |
| Write-in | 9,965 | 0.3% | -0.6% | ||
| Total votes | 3,277,171 | 100% | |||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Blue Earth (largest municipality: Mankato)
- Clay (largest municipality: Moorhead)
- Nicollet (largest municipality: North Mankato)
- Winona (largest municipality: Winona)
Results by congressional district
| District | Biden | Trump | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 43% | 53% | Jim Hagedorn |
| 2nd | 52% | 45% | Angie Craig |
| 3rd | 58% | 39% | Dean Phillips |
| 4th | 67% | 30% | Betty McCollum |
| 5th | 80% | 17% | Ilhan Omar |
| 6th | 38% | 58% | Tom Emmer |
| 7th | 34% | 63% | Collin Peterson |
| Michelle Fischbach | |||
| 8th | 41% | 56% | Pete Stauber |
See also
Notes
- Poll sponsored by Lewis' campaign
- Poll sponsored by Giffords, whose founder, Gabby Giffords, had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
- Partisan clients
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Someone else" with 1%
- "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 3%
- "Some other candidate" with 5%
- West (B) with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- "Another Third Party Candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%
- "Refused" with 2%; Fuente (A), "Other" and West (B) with 1%; Pierce (I) with 0%; Kennedy (SWP) and La Riva (PSOL) with no voters
- "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
- "Neither" with 1%; "Other" and would not vote with 0%
- Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Someone else/third party" with 2%
- "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
- Includes "Refused"
- "Some other candidate" with 4%
- Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Someone else" with 3%
- "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
- Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
- "Another Party Candidate"
- "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 1%
- Including undecided voters who lean towards Trump
- Including undecided voters who lean towards Biden
- For Howard Schultz as independent
- Listed as "unsure/other/refused"
- Poll sponsored by the Alliance for a Better Minnesota
- Listed as "unsure/other/refused"
References
- State Canvassing Board Certifies Results of 2020 General Election The total number of voters was 3,292,997. That means 79.96 percent of eligible Minnesotans participated in the 2020 General Election. That is the highest percentage turnout since 1956, and the highest total number of voters ever.
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Trump got more votes in Minnesota in 2020 than he did in 2016. But Biden got way more than Clinton did". MinnPost. November 4, 2020. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
- "Despite attention, Trump gained little ground on Iron Range". The Star Tribune. November 4, 2020. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
- "Minnesota Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- "What we learned from the Greater Minnesota vote in 2020". MinnPost. November 5, 2020. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
- "State Canvassing Board Certificate - 2020 Presidential Nomination Primary". Minnesota State Canvassing Board. Retrieved March 19, 2020.
- "Minnesota Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 19, 2020.
- Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- Cillizza, Chris; Enten, Harry (September 13, 2018). "There's a new No. 1 among 2020 Democrats". CNN.
- Burke, Michael (November 25, 2018). "Klobuchar says she is still considering 2020 run". The Hill.
- Smith, Mitch; Lerer, Lisa (February 10, 2019). "Amy Klobuchar Enters 2020 Presidential Race". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- Kiersz, Andy; Hickey, Walt (March 4, 2020). "Joe Biden wins Minnesota primary". Business Insider.
- "DFL Announces 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Ballot". dfl.org. Democratic Farmers-Labors Union. December 17, 2019. Retrieved December 27, 2019.
- "State Canvassing Board Certificate 2020 Presidential Nomination Primary". Minnesota. Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State. March 10, 2020. Archived from the original on March 29, 2020. Retrieved April 2, 2020.
- "Live Super Tuesday primary election results from 14 state primaries". USA TODAY.
- "2020 Electoral Maps from Princeton Election Consortium". 270 to Win. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- "JHK Forecasts Presidential Election Forecast". JHKForecasts. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
- "State of Minnesota Canvassing Report" (PDF). Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State. November 25, 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on November 25, 2020. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
- "Official List of Candidates". Minnesota Secretary of State. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
Further reading
- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Minnesota
- David Weigel; Lauren Tierney (September 13, 2020), "The five political states of Minnesota", Washingtonpost.com, archived from the original on October 4, 2020
External links
- Elections & Voting - Minnesota Secretary of State
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Minnesota", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Minnesota: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Minnesota". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Minnesota at Ballotpedia
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