2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota

The 2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Minnesota, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and other state and local elections. Some Republican pundits and strategists believed Minnesota to be one of the few states Republicans should've aimed to flip due to its increasingly Republican-favorable demographics and unexpectedly close result in the 2016 presidential election, although every single poll showed incumbent Democratic Senator Tina Smith in the lead. Smith won re-election to a full term in office by a margin of 5.2 points, making this the closest Senate election in Minnesota since 2008, likely because two pro-marijuana legalization parties (Legal Marijuana Now Party and Grassroots Party) unexpectedly took a combined 7.69% of the vote.

Not to be confused with 2020 Minnesota Senate election.

2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Tina Smith Jason Lewis Kevin O'Connor
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican Legal Marijuana Now
Popular vote 1,566,522 1,398,145 190,154
Percentage 48.7% 43.5% 5.9%
County results
Smith:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%
Lewis:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%
U.S. senator before election

Tina Smith
Democratic (DFL)

 Elected U.S. Senator

Tina Smith
Democratic (DFL)

Elections in Minnesota
General elections
Federal elections
Presidential elections
Senate elections
House of Representatives
State executive elections
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant gubernatorial elections
Secretary of State elections
State Auditor elections
Attorney General elections
State legislative elections
Senate elections
House of Representatives elections
Special elections
Ballot questions
2012
Minneapolis
General elections
Mayoral elections
City Council elections
Saint Paul
Mayoral elections

The filing deadline for all candidates was June 2, 2020.[1] The primary took place on August 11.[2]

Democratic primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary
  • Steve Carlson, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 and write-in candidate for President in 2016[4][5][1]
  • Ahmad Hassan[1]
  • Paula Overby, Green Party nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018[6][1]
  • Christopher Seymore, Sr.[1]

Withdrawn

Endorsements
Tina Smith
U.S. Senators
  • Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota; former 2020 presidential candidate[9]
Organizations
Labor unions

Results
Results by county:
Democratic primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic (DFL) Tina Smith (incumbent) 497,498 87.14%
Democratic (DFL) Paula Overby 30,497 5.34%
Democratic (DFL) Ahmad Hassan 20,037 3.51%
Democratic (DFL) Steve Carlson 16,429 2.88%
Democratic (DFL) Christopher Seymore 6,480 1.13%
Total votes 570,941 100.00%

Republican primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary
  • John L. Berman[1]
  • Bob Carney Jr.[1][33]
  • Cynthia Gail, art teacher[34]
  • James Reibestein[1]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements
Jason Lewis
U.S. President
Political Organizations

Results
Results by county:
Republican primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jason Lewis 191,290 78.11%
Republican Cynthia Gail 17,675 7.22%
Republican John Berman 16,213 6.62%
Republican Bob Carney Jr. 10,503 4.29%
Republican James Reibestein 9,210 3.76%
Total votes 244,891 100.00%

Other candidates

Nominee
  • Oliver Steinberg[1]

Results
Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Grassroots Oliver Steinberg 3,275 100.00%
Total votes 3,275 100.00%

Nominee
  • Kevin O'Connor[1]

Primary results
Legal Marijuana Now primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Legal Marijuana Now Kevin O'Connor 6,996 100.00%
Total votes 6,996 100.00%

Declared
  • George Dennis Jr.[47]
  • Josh D. Ondich, perennial candidate[48][49]

General election

Debate

Two General Election debates were held. The first on October 2, 2020, was hosted by Minnesota Public Radio and was attended by Smith and Lewis.[50] The Second debate was hosted by Twin Cities PBS on October 23, 2020, and was attended only by Lewis.[51]

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[52] Safe D August 17, 2020
Inside Elections[53] Safe D September 18, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] Likely D August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[55] Likely D August 31, 2020
Politico[56] Likely D September 9, 2020
RCP[57] Tossup October 22, 2020
Niskanen[58] Likely D September 15, 2020
DDHQ[59] Likely D September 16, 2020
538[60] Likely D September 18, 2020

Endorsements
Tina Smith (D)
U.S. Senators
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers
  • Minneapolis Star Tribune[69]
Jason Lewis (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Representatives
Other Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Tina
Smith (D)		 Jason
Lewis (R)		 Other Undecided
Research Co. October 31 – November 1, 2020 450 (LV) 4.6% 50% 39% 2%[lower-alpha 1] 9%
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 1,259 (LV) ± 2.8% 54% 44% 2%[lower-alpha 2] –
Swayable October 23 – November 1, 2020 430 (LV) ± 6.1% 55% 46% – –
Public Policy Polling October 29–30, 2020 770 (V) – 51% 42% – 6%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart October 25–30, 2020 1,138 (LV) – 53% 44% 3%[lower-alpha 3] –
St. Cloud State University October 10–29, 2020 372 (A) ± 6.7% 53% 36% – –
SurveyUSA October 23–27, 2020 649 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 42% 3%[lower-alpha 4] 10%
Gravis Marketing October 24–26, 2020 657 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 39% – 8%
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 17–20, 2020 840 (LV) ± 3.6% 54% 43% 2%[lower-alpha 5] 1%
SurveyUSA October 16–20, 2020 625 (LV) ± 5% 43% 42% 3%[lower-alpha 6] 12%
Change Research October 12–15, 2020[lower-alpha 7] 1,021 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 44% 4%[lower-alpha 8] 5%
SurveyUSA October 1–6, 2020 929 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 37% 4%[lower-alpha 9] 16%
Suffolk University September 20–24, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 35% 6%[lower-alpha 10] 14%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy September 21–23, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 41% – 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies September 12–17, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.7% 51% 36% 2%[lower-alpha 11] 11%
CBS News/YouGov September 9–11, 2020 1,087 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 40% 2%[lower-alpha 12] 10%
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 8–10, 2020 814 (LV) ± 3.9% 49% 40% 0%[lower-alpha 13] 11%[lower-alpha 14]
SurveyUSA September 4–7, 2020 553 (LV) ± 5.2% 47% 36% 3%[lower-alpha 15] 14%
Public Policy Polling September 3–4, 2020 877 (V) ± 3.3% 49% 41% 3%[lower-alpha 16] 7%
Harper Polling (R)[upper-alpha 1] August 30 – September 1, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 41% – 10%
Emerson College August 8–10, 2020 733 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 45% – 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] July 22–23, 2020 1,218 (V) ± 3.2% 48% 39% – 13%
Harper Polling (R)[upper-alpha 1] May 26–28, 2020 510 (LV) – 46% 35% – 20%
Hypothetical polling
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Generic
Republican		 Other Undecided
PPP Sep 3–4, 2020 877 (V) ± 3.3% 51% 44% – 4%
Harper Polling/Jason Lewis[upper-alpha 3] Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.38% 45% 43% 3%[lower-alpha 17] 9%
Emerson College Aug 8–10, 2020 733 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 46% – 7%
Harper Polling (R)[upper-alpha 4] May 26–28, 2020 510 (LV) – 44% 40% – –
County Results for Kevin O'Connor:

Results
United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2020[87]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic (DFL) Tina Smith (incumbent) 1,566,522 48.74% -4.23%
Republican Jason Lewis 1,398,145 43.50% +1.15%
Legal Marijuana Now Kevin O'Connor 190,154 5.91% +2.21%
Grassroots Oliver Steinberg 57,174 1.78% N/A
Write-in 2,261 0.07% +0.03%
Total votes 3,214,256 100.00% N/A
Democratic (DFL) hold

See also

Notes
  1. "Someone else" with 2%
  2. "Other candidate or write-in" with 2%
  3. "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 3%
  4. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  5. O'Connor (LMN) and Steinberg (GLC) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
  6. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  7. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  8. O'Connor (LMN) with 3%; Steinberg (GLC) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  9. "Some other candidate" with 4%
  10. O'Connor (LMN) and "Refused" with 2%; Steinberg (GLC) and "Other" with 1%
  11. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%
  12. "Someone else" with 2%
  13. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  14. Includes "Refused"
  15. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  16. "Someone else" with 3%
  17. "Someone else" with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Lewis' campaign
  2. Giffords endorsed Tina Smith prior to the sampling period
  3. Poll sponsored by Lewis' campaign
  4. Poll sponsored by Lewis' campaign

References
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  2. Montgomery, David H. "Primary primer: What you need to know about Minnesota's August election". MPR News. Retrieved July 15, 2020.
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  5. "Minnesota". The Washington Times. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  6. "Former Green Party candidate Overby to seek DFL endorsement". www.wtip.org.
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  8. "The Green Papers: Minnesota 2020 General Election". The Green Papers. May 15, 2020. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  9. "The Win Big Project". The Win Big Project.
  10. Brown, Kris (September 12, 2019). "Brady Endorses Sen. Tina Smith, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, and Rep. Ben Ray Luján for U.S. Senate". Brady.
  11. "Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  12. "EMILY's List Endorses Senator Tina Smith for Re-Election". Emily's List. January 31, 2019.
  13. Muller, Tiffany (August 27, 2019). "End Citizens United Endorses Four U.S. Senators for Reelection". End Citizens United.
  14. "Everytown For Gun Safety Action Fund Endorses Tina Smith For U.S. Senate in Minnesota". Everytown. June 9, 2020.
  15. "2020 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
  16. "Giffords Endorses Slate of Senators Running to Bring a Gun Safety Majority to the US Senate". Giffords. May 8, 2020.
  17. Acosta, Lucas (August 26, 2019). "HRC Endorses Senator Tina Smith for Reelection| Human Rights Campaign". Human Rights Campaign.
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  21. "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Senator Tina Smith for Re-election- NARAL Pro-Choice America". NARAL Pro-Choice America. September 23, 2019.
  22. "Candidates We Endorse and Support". NCPSSM.
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  70. "Vice President Mike Pence Endorses Jason Lewis In Minnesota's U.S. Senate Race". July 28, 2020.
  71. "Hagedorn, Lewis rally supporters in Rochester campaigning in-person and says they're gaining ground". KAAL. October 28, 2020.
  72. "Donation Status [INCOMPLETE]" – via www.facebook.com.
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  86. www.wadenapj.com. Wadena Pioneer Journal https://www.wadenapj.com/opinion/editorials/6681687-Endorsement-Lewis-for-U.S.-Senate. Retrieved October 20, 2020. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  87. "Statewide Results for U.S. Senator". Minnesota Secretary of State. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
Official campaign websites
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