2020 Montana gubernatorial election

The 2020 Montana gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the next governor of Montana, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives and various state and local elections. It resulted in voters selecting Greg Gianforte over Mike Cooney. Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Bullock, who was term-limited and could not seek reelection to a third consecutive term in office, was instead seeking Montana's Class II Senate seat.[1][2]

See also: 2020 United States gubernatorial elections
See also: 2020 Montana elections
2020 Montana gubernatorial election
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Greg Gianforte Mike Cooney
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Kristen Juras Casey Schreiner
Popular vote 328,548 250,860
Percentage 54.4% 41.6%
County results
Gianforte:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Cooney:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Governor before election

Steve Bullock
Democratic

 Elected Governor

Greg Gianforte
Republican

Elections in Montana
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2004
2008
2016
2020
Republican
2008
2012
2016
U. S. Senate elections
U. S. House elections
Special elections
State government
Gubernatorial elections
Secretary of State elections
State Senate elections
State House elections
Ballot measures
2004
Initiative 96
2016
Initiative 182

Bullock's lieutenant governor, Mike Cooney, was the Democratic nominee, while the Republican nominee was Montana's at-large congressman Greg Gianforte. Gianforte won the election, making him the first Republican governor of Montana since Judy Martz.[3]

Democratic primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary
  • Whitney Williams, businesswoman and daughter of former U.S. Representative Pat Williams[6]
    • Running mate: Buzz Mattelin, farmer and president of the National Barley Growers Association

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements
Mike Cooney
Statewide politicians
Federal politicians
Organizations
Whitney Williams
Statewide politicians
Local politicians
Organizations

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Mike
Cooney		 Reilly
Neill		 Casey
Schreiner		 Whitney
Williams		 Other /
Undecided
Montana State University Billings October 7–16, 2019 40 (LV) – 19% 2% 6% 11% 62%

Results
Results by county
Democratic primary results[26]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mike Cooney 81,527 54.86%
Democratic Whitney Williams 67,066 45.14%
Total votes 148,593 100.00%

Republican primary

Nominee
  • Running mate: Kristen Juras, businesswoman and attorney[29]

Eliminated in primary
  • Running mate: Jon Knokey, former state representative

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements
Greg Gianforte
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Tim
Fox		 Greg
Gianforte		 Albert
Olszewski		 Other /
Undecided
Montana State University Billings October 7–16, 2019 99 (LV) – 25% 33% 9% 32%
Gravis Marketing August 28–30, 2019 433 (RV) ± 4.7% 29% 56% 15% –
Moore Information[upper-alpha 1] July 7–10, 2019 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 17% 56% 5% 23%

Results
Results by county
Republican primary results[26]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Greg Gianforte 119,247 53.44%
Republican Tim Fox 60,823 27.26%
Republican Albert Olszewski 43,080 19.30%
Total votes 223,150 100.00%

Other candidates

Nominee
  • Lyman Bishop, founder and CEO of Hoplite Armor[41]
    • Running mate: John Nesper

Withdrawn
  • Ron Vandevender, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2016 and nominee for governor in 2012[42][43][44]

Disqualified
  • Robert Barb[41][45]
    • Running mate: Joshua Thomas

Results
Green primary results[26]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Robert Barb 713 100.0%
Total votes 713 100.0%

General election

Debate
Host Date & Time Link(s) Participants
Mike Cooney (D) Greg Gianforte (R)
Montana PBS October 6, 2020
6:00pm MDT		 [46] Present Present

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[47] Tossup September 15, 2020
Inside Elections[48] Tossup October 16, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Lean R (flip) November 2, 2020
Politico[50] Lean R (flip) September 9, 2020
Daily Kos[51] Lean R (flip) July 22, 2020
RCP[52] Tossup July 29, 2020
270towin[53] Tossup October 16, 2020

Endorsements
Mike Cooney (D)
Statewide and local politicians
Federal politicians
Organizations
Greg Gianforte (R)
U.S. Presidents
Individuals
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Mike
Cooney (D)		 Greg
Gianforte (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Change Research October 29 – November 2, 2020 920 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 48% 6%[lower-alpha 2]
Montana State University Billings October 19–24, 2020 546 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 45% 11%[lower-alpha 3]
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 18–20, 2020 758 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 48% 8%[lower-alpha 4]
Strategies 360/NBCMT October 15–20, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41% 48% 11%[lower-alpha 5]
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ October 15–18, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45%[lower-alpha 6] 48% 5%[lower-alpha 7]
47%[lower-alpha 8] 46% 5%[lower-alpha 9]
43%[lower-alpha 10] 50% 5%[lower-alpha 11]
Emerson College October 4–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 3.7% 41% 54% 5%[lower-alpha 12]
Montana State University Bozeman September 14 – October 2, 2020 1,605 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 47% 11%[lower-alpha 13]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 14–16, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4.8% 39% 45% 16%[lower-alpha 14]
Global Strategy Group (D) August 18–23, 2020 600 (LV) – 46% 47% –
Emerson College July 31 – August 2, 2020 584 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 50% 10%[lower-alpha 15]
Civiqs/Daily Kos July 11–13, 2020 873 (RV) ± 4.2% 44% 47% 9%[lower-alpha 16]
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 2] July 9–10, 2020 1,224 (V) ± 2.8% 42% 46% 12%[lower-alpha 17]
University of Montana June 17–26, 2020 517 (RV) ± 4.3% 36% 46% 18%[lower-alpha 18]
The Progress Campaign (D) April 14–21, 2020 1,712 (RV) ± 4.6% 41% 43% 16%[lower-alpha 19]
Hypothetical polling with former candidates

University of Montana polls did not account for the withdrawals of Democratic and Republican candidates after they lost their primaries.

with Mike Cooney, Tim Fox, Greg Gianforte, Albert Olszewski, Ron Vandevender and Whitney Williams
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Democratic
Candidates		 Republican
Candidates		 Ron
Vandevender (L)
University of Montana February 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 35.1%[lower-alpha 20] 61.7%[lower-alpha 21] 1.3%
with Mike Cooney, Tim Fox, Greg Gianforte, Reilly Neill, Albert Olszewski, Gary Perry, Casey Schreiner and Whitney Williams
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Democratic
Candidates		 Republican
Candidates
University of Montana September 26 – October 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 40%[lower-alpha 22] 60.1%[lower-alpha 23]
with Tim Fox, Matt Rosendale, Corey Stapleton, Kathleen Williams and Whitney Williams
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Democratic
Candidates		 Republican
Candidates		 Other /
Undecided
University of Montana February 21 – March 1, 2019 293 (RV) ± 5.7% 32.4%[lower-alpha 24] 48.4%[lower-alpha 25] 19.2%[lower-alpha 26]

Results
2020 Montana gubernatorial election[55]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Greg Gianforte 328,548 54.43% +8.08%
Democratic Mike Cooney 250,860 41.56% -8.69%
Libertarian Lyman Bishop 24,179 4.01% +0.61%
Total votes 603,587 100.00%
Turnout 612,075 81.33%
Registered electors 752,538
Republican gain from Democratic

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Bishop (L) with 3%; "Don't recall" with 2%; Did not vote with 1%; Would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 1%
  3. Bishop (L) with 2%; Undecided with 9%
  4. Bishop (L) with 4%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 4%
  5. Bishop (L) with 4%; Undecided with 7%
  6. Standard VI response
  7. "Some other candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
  8. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  9. "Some other candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
  10. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  11. "Some other candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
  12. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  13. "Other" with 4% (including Bishop (L) with <2%); Undecided with 7%
  14. Bishop (L) with 4%; Barb (G) and would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
  15. "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  16. "Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 4%
  17. Undecided with 12%
  18. Undecided with 18.3%
  19. Undecided with 16%
  20. Cooney with 21%; Williams with 14.1%
  21. Gianforte with 35%; Fox with 21.6%; Olszewski with 6.9%
  22. Cooney with 23%; Williams with 7.9%; Schreiner with 6%; Neill with 3.1%
  23. Gianforte with 35.1%; Fox with 16.1%; Olszewski with 8.1%; Perry with 0.8%
  24. Kathleen Williams with 26.6%; Cooney with 5.2%; Whitney Williams with 0.6%
  25. Fox with 16.8%; Gianforte with 16.1%; Stapleton with 8%; Rosendale with 7.5%
  26. "Someone else" with 15.4%; "none/do not plan to vote" with 3.8%
Partisan clients
  1. Commissioned by Gianforte
  2. Poll's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.

References
  1. Arkin, James (March 9, 2020). "Bullock enters Montana Senate race". POLITICO.
  2. Pramuk, Jacob (March 9, 2020). "Montana Gov. Steve Bullock launches Senate bid, a boost in Democrats' push for majority". CNBC.
  3. Gstalter, Morgan (January 18, 2021). "GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte wins Montana governor's race". The Hill.
  4. "Montana lieutenant governor joins governor's race". Associated Press. July 3, 2019. Retrieved July 3, 2019.
  5. Cates-Carney, Corin (February 28, 2020). "Cooney Names Schreiner As Running Mate In Gov Race". mtpr.org. Montana Public Radio.
  6. Volz, Matt (October 3, 2019). "Williams now 4th Democrat in governor's race". Great Falls Tribune. Associated Press. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  7. Press, The Associated (January 22, 2020). "Former Montana lawmaker Neill drops out of governor's race". KECI.
  8. Drake, Phil (January 21, 2020). "Democrat Neill drops from Montana governor's race". Great Falls Tribune.
  9. Bridge, Thom (February 3, 2020). "Casey Schreiner ends Montana gubernatorial campaign". The Missoulian. Retrieved February 3, 2019.
  10. Michels, Holly. "Cooney picks Schreiner as running mate in race for governor". Montana Standard. Retrieved 29 February 2020.
  11. Kondik, Kyle (December 6, 2018). "Governors 2019-2020: Democrats try to hold the line in red-state battles". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 7, 2018.
  12. Hanson, Amy Beth (May 13, 2019). "Mayor who was refugee from Liberia announces run for Senate". Associated Press. Retrieved May 13, 2019.
  13. Dennison, Mike (March 20, 2019). "Montana 2020: Gianforte gubernatorial run would have 'domino effect' on statewide races". KRTV. Retrieved March 21, 2019.
  14. Lippman, Daniel (May 10, 2019). "'The Revenant' author considering run for Montana Senate or governor". Politico. Retrieved May 10, 2019.
  15. Punke, Michael (2019-06-23). "As my friends and family know, I have been considering a run for Montana's senator or governor. I'm grateful for the encouragement I received. I have decided not to seek election this cycle. For my family &me, it's not the right time. Thx to all who offered advice &encouragement". @MPunke. Retrieved 2019-06-23.
  16. Ambarian, Jonathon (February 27, 2020). "Democratic gubernatorial candidate Williams gets endorsement from former Gov. Schweitzer". KPAX.
  17. "Williams launches new bid for Montana US House seat". KECI. Associated Press. April 5, 2019. Retrieved April 5, 2019.
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  19. "Mike Cooney". ballotpedia.org.
  20. "Rep. Dunwell endorses Cooney for governor". cooneyformontana.com. January 18, 2020.
  21. "Tester endorses Cooney in contested Democratic gov primary". ktvh.com. April 29, 2020.
  22. "AFL-CIO endorses Cooney, Schreiner=". newsbreak.com.
  23. "Mike Cooney's Momentum Grows with Three Big Labor Endorsements". cooneyformontana.com. April 8, 2020.
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  27. "Gianforte files fundraising paperwork to run for governor in 2020". KTVH.com. 2019-06-06. Retrieved 2019-06-07.
  28. Michels, Holly K. (June 7, 2019). "Gianforte files to run for governor in 2020". Independent Record.
  29. Drake, Phil (March 1, 2020). "Gianforte names Great Falls attorney Kristen Juras as lieutenant governor running mate". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved May 26, 2020.
  30. "Montana's 2020 governor's race: Buckle up". KTVQ.com. 2019-03-28. Retrieved 2019-03-28.
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  32. patrick.reilly@missoulian.com, PATRICK REILLY. "Fox unfazed by prospect that Gianforte may enter Montana's race for governor". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved 2019-03-25.
  33. Drake, Phil (October 4, 2019). "Olszewski picks Bogner to run as lieutenant governor". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved May 26, 2020.
  34. Drake, Phil (June 15, 2019). "Stapleton announces run for U.S. House seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 15, 2019.
  35. "Fox has 212k in bank as GOP governor's race narrows". fox28spokane.com. July 5, 2019. Retrieved July 9, 2019.
  36. Pathé, Simone (June 17, 2019). "On heels of Senate loss, Matt Rosendale running for Congress — again". Roll Call. Retrieved June 17, 2019.
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  40. "Greg Gianforte".
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  42. "Former Democratic legislator to run for Montana governor". The Missoulian. Associated Press. June 10, 2019. Retrieved June 10, 2019.
  43. Drake, Phil (February 9, 2020). "So what would you do? Candidates asked about Garcia". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved April 24, 2020.
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Official campaign websites
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