2020 United States presidential election in Montana
The 2020 United States presidential election in Montana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump and running mate Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Montana has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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| Turnout | 81.33% (of registered voters)  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 County Results
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| Elections in Montana |
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Trump once again carried the state 56.9% to 40.5%, a margin of 16.4%, down from the 20.5% margin he scored four years earlier. Prior to this election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Trump would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. Montana has not been won by a Democrat since 1992, and has only been competitive in two elections since then, namely in 1996 and in 2008.
Despite his loss in the state, Biden was able to flip Blaine County, a bellwether. He also narrowed Trump's margins in 31 other counties, including the counties of Lewis and Clark (Helena, the state capital), and to a lesser extent Roosevelt, which holds most of Fort Peck Reservation.
Analysis
Montana, an almost-entirely-White, sparsely-populated state straddling the Mountain and Plains West, has been a red state on the presidential level from 1968 on, voting solidly Republican in the close elections of 1968, 2000, 2004, 2012, and 2016. Since 1964, it has voted Democratic only in 1992, and, aside from that, has been competitive only in 1976, 1988,[3] 1996, and 2008. Montana typically votes substantially to the left of its neighbors in the Mountain West (Idaho and Wyoming) and, more recently, of its neighbors in the Plains West as well (North and South Dakota). Nevertheless, Trump was able to carry the state comfortably on Election Day, although his margin was reduced with respect to 2016.
Trump's principal bases of support were in Glacier Country, southwest Montana, central Montana, and southeast Montana, where he carried the population centers of Flathead County (Kalispell), Ravalli County, Cascade County (Great Falls), and Yellowstone County (Billings), in every case with a higher vote share than he received statewide. He also performed strongly in moderate-size, more rural counties in every region of the state, such as Lincoln and Sanders in Glacier Country, Beaverhead, Madison, and Jefferson in the southwest, Stillwater and Carbon in south central Montana, Fergus in central Montana, Custer in the southeast, and Richland, Dawson, and Valley in the Missouri River Country.
However, Biden was able to keep the margin smaller than in neighboring states by breaking 60% in Missoula County, the state's second-largest county and home to the University of Montana, and winning a majority in Gallatin County, the state's third-largest county and home to Montana State University. Gallatin County had been a typically Republican county as recently as 2012, when it voted for Romney. He also held Trump to a 4% margin in Lewis and Clark County, the state's sixth-largest county and home to the state capital, Helena; George W. Bush had won this county twice by double digits. Biden also held onto the traditionally Democratic strongholds of heavily unionized Silver Bow and Deer Lodge Counties, although he still fell short of the typical Democratic vote share in those counties; Trump became the first Republican to crack 40% in Silver Bow since 1956, and got the highest vote share of any Republican in Deer Lodge since 1956.
Biden flipped one county, Blaine County; Trump flipped no counties.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, 49% of voters favored allowing more drilling and mining for natural resources on Montana's public lands; an overwhelming 87% of them backed Trump.[4]
In addition to Trump's victory in Montana, Republican candidates, riding on his coattails, won three other major statewide races, which were expected to be competitive. Incumbent Senator Steve Daines defeated term-limited Governor Steve Bullock in the Montana Senate race,[5] Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale defeated former state representative Kathleen Williams in the Montana House race,[6] and Republican Representative Greg Gianforte defeated Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney in the governor's race.[7] This marked the first time since 2000 that Montana Republicans have held a trifecta.[8]
Primary elections
The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.
Republican primary
Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 27 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[9]
Democratic primary
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[11] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 111,706 | 74.5% | 18 |
| Bernie Sanders (suspended) | 22,033 | 14.7% | 1 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 11,984 | 8.0% | |
| Uncommitted | 4,250 | 2.8% | |
| Total | 149,973 | 100% | 19 |
Libertarian nominee
The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[12] | Likely R | September 10, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[13] | Lean R | September 4, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Likely R | July 14, 2020 |
| Politico[15] | Likely R | September 8, 2020 |
| RCP[16] | Lean R | August 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[17] | Likely R | July 26, 2020 |
| CNN[18] | Safe R | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[19] | Likely R | September 2, 2020 |
| CBS News[20] | Likely R | August 16, 2020 |
| 270towin[21] | Likely R | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News[22] | Lean R | July 31, 2020 |
| NPR[23] | Likely R | August 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[24] | Likely R | August 6, 2020 |
| 538[25] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win | October 15–28, 2020 | October 30, 2020 | 44.8% | 50.2% | 5.0% | Trump +5.4 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until November 1, 2020 | November 1, 2020 | 45.3% | 50.2% | 4.5% | Trump +4.9 |
| Average | 45.1% | 50.2% | 4.7% | Trump +5.1 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020 | 920 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 48% | 1% | 1%[lower-alpha 3] | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,021 (LV) | ± 4% | 52%[lower-alpha 4] | 46% | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 1,471 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 48% | - | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[upper-alpha 1] | Oct 26–27, 2020 | 886 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 47% | - | – | 3% |
| Montana State University Billings | Oct 19–24, 2020 | 546 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 52% | 45% | 1% | – | 2% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | Oct 18–20, 2020 | 758 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 43% | 3% | 2%[lower-alpha 5] | 3%[lower-alpha 6] |
| Strategies 360/NBCMT | Oct 15–20, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 43% | 3% | – | 4% |
| RMG Research/PoliticalIQ | Oct 15–18, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50%[lower-alpha 7] | 46% | 2% | 4%[lower-alpha 8] | 0% |
| 48%[lower-alpha 9] | 48% | 2% | 4%[lower-alpha 10] | 0% | ||||
| 52%[lower-alpha 11] | 44% | 2% | 4%[lower-alpha 12] | 0% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling | Oct 9–10, 2020 | 798 (V) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 46% | - | 2%[lower-alpha 13] | 0% |
| Emerson College | Oct 4–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 56% | 44% | - | – | – |
| Data For Progress (D) | Sep 30 – Oct 5, 2020 | 737 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 43% | 3% | 0%[lower-alpha 14] | 5% |
| Montana State University Bozeman | Sep 14 – Oct 2, 2020 | 1,607 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 51% | 44% | – | 4% | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 480 (LV) | – | 57% | 41% | - | – | 2% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | Sep 14–16, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 42% | 2% | 2%[lower-alpha 15] | 5%[lower-alpha 16] |
| Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP | Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 43% | - | 0%[lower-alpha 17] | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 562 (LV) | – | 52% | 46% | - | – | 1% |
| Expedition Strategies/House Majority PAC[upper-alpha 2] | Aug 22–27, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 44% | - | – | 7%[lower-alpha 18] |
| Emerson College | Jul 31 – Aug 2, 2020 | 584 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 54%[lower-alpha 19] | 46% | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 527 (LV) | – | 53% | 44% | - | – | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[upper-alpha 3] | Jul 23–24, 2020 | 917 (V) | – | 50% | 45% | - | – | 5% |
| Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[upper-alpha 4] | Jul 11–16, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 42% | - | – | 6% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | Jul 11–13, 2020 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 45% | - | 5%[lower-alpha 20] | 1% |
| Public Policy Polling/Election Twitter | Jul 9–10, 2020 | 1,224 (V) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 42% | - | – | 7% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 166 (LV) | – | 57% | 41% | - | – | 2% |
| University of Montana | Jun 17–26, 2020 | 517 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 52% | 38% | - | – | 10% |
| Montana State University Bozeman | Apr 10–27, 2020 | 459 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 45% | 40% | - | 11% | 5% |
| The Progress Campaign (D) | Apr 14–21, 2020 | 1,712 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 42% | - | – | 7%[lower-alpha 21] |
| University of Montana | Feb 12–22, 2020 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 56% | 34% | - | – | 10% |
| University of Montana | Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 | 303 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 54% | 47% | - | – | – |
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Electoral slates
These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[26]
| Donald Trump and Mike Pence Republican Party |
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Democratic Party |
Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen Libertarian Party |
|---|---|---|
| Thelma Baker Becky Stockton Brad Tschida |
Jean Lemire Dahlman Katie Sullivan Cora Neumann |
Francis Wendt Jacob Kitson Cher Kitson |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
343,602 | 56.92% | +0.75% | |
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
244,786 | 40.55% | +4.80% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
15,252 | 2.53% | -3.11% | |
| Total votes | 603,640 | 100.00% | |||
See also
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Don't recall" with 1%
- Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
- Includes "Refused"
- Standard VI response
- "Someone else" with 4%
- Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- "Someone else" with 4%
- Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- "Someone else" with 4%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- Hawkins (G) with 0%
- Hawkins (G) and would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%
- Includes "Refused"
- "Refused" with 0%
- Includes "Refused"
- Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
- "Someone else" with 5%
- Listed as "other/not sure"
- "Someone else" with 11.6%; Warren with 5%; "none/do not plan to vote" with 4%; Kasich with 4.4%; Harris with 3.8%; O'Rourke with 3.4%; Booker with 2.4%; Gillibrand with 1% Schultz with 1.2%
- Partisan clients
- Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
- The House Majority PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
- AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
- This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
References
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "For Dukakis, election math grows tight". Christian Science Monitor. October 18, 1988. ISSN 0882-7729. Retrieved January 4, 2021.
- "Montana Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-montana.html
- https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-montana.html
- https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-montana.html
- Georgiou, Maritsa (November 5, 2020). "Montana GOP leaders lay out legislative priorities". NBC Montana. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
- "Montana Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- "2020 Statewide Primary Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
- "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Electors and Alternates" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
- "Montana Federal Election Results". Montana Secretary of State. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
Further reading
- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Montana
External links
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Montana", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Montana: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Montana". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Montana at Ballotpedia
