2016 United States presidential election in Montana
The 2016 United States presidential election in Montana was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Montana has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]
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| Turnout | 74.44%  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 County Results
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| Elections in Montana |
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Trump carried the state by a 20.5% margin of victory, exceeding Mitt Romney's 13.7% margin in 2012 and John McCain's 2.4% margin in 2008. Republicans have won Montana in every presidential election since 1996. Libertarian nominee and third-party candidate Gary Johnson received 5.6% of the vote.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:
| Montana Democratic primary, June 7, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Bernie Sanders | 65,156 | 51.56% | 11 | 1 | 12 |
| Hillary Clinton | 55,805 | 44.16% | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| No preference | 5,415 | 4.28% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 126,376 | 100% | 21 | 6 | 27 |
| Source: The Green Papers, Montana Secretary of State - Official Primary Results | |||||
Republican primary
Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:
- Jeb Bush (withdrawn)
- Ben Carson (withdrawn)
- Chris Christie (withdrawn)
- Ted Cruz (withdrawn)
- Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)
- Jim Gilmore (withdrawn)
- Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)
- John Kasich (withdrawn)
- Rand Paul (withdrawn)
- Marco Rubio (withdrawn)
- Rick Santorum (withdrawn)
- Donald Trump
| Montana Republican primary, June 7, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 115,594 | 73.68% | 27 | 0 | 27 |
| Ted Cruz (withdrawn) | 14,682 | 9.36% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Kasich (withdrawn) | 10,777 | 6.87% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| No preference | 7,369 | 4.70% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marco Rubio (withdrawn) | 5,192 | 3.31% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush (withdrawn) | 3,274 | 2.09% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 156,888 | 100.00% | 27 | 0 | 27 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| CNN[2] | Safe R | November 4, 2016 |
| Cook Political Report[3] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Electoral-vote.com[4] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| NBC[5] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[6] | Likely R | November 7, 2016 |
Results by county
Preliminary general election results for president as of 14 December 2016 by county. Totals exclude 2,621 write-in votes. [7]
| County | Clinton% | Clinton# | Trump% | Trump# | Others% | Others# | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beaverhead | 23.57% | 1143 | 69.15% | 3353 | 7.28% | 353 | 4849 |
| Big Horn | 49.57% | 2094 | 43.87% | 1853 | 6.56% | 277 | 4224 |
| Blaine | 45.00% | 1202 | 47.47% | 1268 | 7.53% | 201 | 2671 |
| Broadwater | 18.30% | 573 | 74.97% | 2348 | 6.74% | 211 | 3132 |
| Carbon | 30.64% | 1828 | 62.81% | 3748 | 6.55% | 391 | 5967 |
| Carter | 8.99% | 70 | 87.03% | 678 | 3.98% | 31 | 779 |
| Cascade | 35.41% | 12175 | 57.10% | 19632 | 7.49% | 2577 | 34384 |
| Chouteau | 28.27% | 732 | 64.85% | 1679 | 6.88% | 178 | 2589 |
| Custer | 22.68% | 1176 | 70.53% | 3657 | 6.79% | 352 | 5185 |
| Daniels | 17.59% | 168 | 76.44% | 730 | 5.97% | 57 | 955 |
| Dawson | 18.17% | 787 | 76.66% | 3320 | 5.17% | 224 | 4331 |
| Deer Lodge | 49.07% | 2058 | 42.04% | 1763 | 8.89% | 373 | 4194 |
| Fallon | 10.38% | 154 | 86.19% | 1279 | 3.44% | 51 | 1484 |
| Fergus | 20.58% | 1202 | 73.10% | 4269 | 6.32% | 369 | 5840 |
| Flathead | 28.59% | 13293 | 65.04% | 30240 | 6.37% | 2961 | 46494 |
| Gallatin | 45.50% | 24246 | 44.66% | 23802 | 9.84% | 5244 | 53292 |
| Garfield | 4.75% | 34 | 91.20% | 653 | 4.05% | 29 | 716 |
| Glacier | 61.67% | 3121 | 32.01% | 1620 | 6.32% | 320 | 5061 |
| Golden Valley | 15.07% | 71 | 77.49% | 365 | 7.43% | 35 | 471 |
| Granite | 26.59% | 472 | 67.15% | 1192 | 6.25% | 111 | 1775 |
| Hill | 36.90% | 2371 | 54.12% | 3478 | 8.98% | 577 | 6426 |
| Jefferson | 29.96% | 1998 | 62.64% | 4177 | 7.39% | 493 | 6668 |
| Judith Basin | 19.57% | 235 | 72.61% | 872 | 7.83% | 94 | 1201 |
| Lake | 36.43% | 4776 | 57.44% | 7530 | 6.13% | 804 | 13110 |
| Lewis and Clark | 42.28% | 14478 | 49.34% | 16895 | 8.39% | 2872 | 34245 |
| Liberty | 21.55% | 206 | 73.01% | 698 | 5.44% | 52 | 956 |
| Lincoln | 21.98% | 2041 | 72.48% | 6729 | 5.54% | 514 | 9284 |
| Madison | 24.88% | 1180 | 69.51% | 3297 | 5.61% | 266 | 4743 |
| McCone | 14.53% | 154 | 81.32% | 862 | 4.15% | 44 | 1060 |
| Meagher | 19.79% | 193 | 74.77% | 729 | 5.44% | 53 | 975 |
| Mineral | 25.91% | 519 | 66.40% | 1330 | 7.69% | 154 | 2003 |
| Missoula | 53.44% | 31543 | 37.70% | 22250 | 8.87% | 5233 | 59026 |
| Musselshell | 13.74% | 332 | 81.42% | 1967 | 4.84% | 117 | 2416 |
| Park | 38.63% | 3595 | 53.51% | 4980 | 7.86% | 731 | 9306 |
| Petroleum | 9.32% | 30 | 86.34% | 278 | 4.35% | 14 | 322 |
| Phillips | 14.72% | 318 | 79.73% | 1723 | 5.55% | 120 | 2161 |
| Pondera | 27.17% | 738 | 66.24% | 1799 | 6.59% | 179 | 2716 |
| Powder River | 12.08% | 127 | 84.11% | 884 | 3.81% | 40 | 1051 |
| Powell | 19.72% | 551 | 72.62% | 2029 | 7.66% | 214 | 2794 |
| Prairie | 14.51% | 100 | 80.70% | 556 | 4.79% | 33 | 689 |
| Ravalli | 27.85% | 6223 | 66.28% | 14810 | 5.88% | 1313 | 22346 |
| Richland | 13.84% | 671 | 80.63% | 3908 | 5.53% | 268 | 4847 |
| Roosevelt | 42.76% | 1560 | 49.26% | 1797 | 7.98% | 291 | 3648 |
| Rosebud | 28.69% | 987 | 65.49% | 2253 | 5.81% | 200 | 3440 |
| Sanders | 20.61% | 1218 | 72.52% | 4286 | 6.87% | 406 | 5910 |
| Sheridan | 26.04% | 477 | 67.74% | 1241 | 6.22% | 114 | 1832 |
| Silver Bow | 52.43% | 8619 | 38.79% | 6376 | 8.78% | 1444 | 16439 |
| Stillwater | 18.66% | 908 | 75.24% | 3661 | 6.10% | 297 | 4866 |
| Sweet Grass | 19.14% | 402 | 75.95% | 1595 | 4.90% | 103 | 2100 |
| Teton | 25.42% | 808 | 68.26% | 2170 | 6.32% | 201 | 3179 |
| Toole | 19.80% | 402 | 73.74% | 1497 | 6.45% | 131 | 2030 |
| Treasure | 13.32% | 59 | 79.23% | 351 | 7.45% | 33 | 443 |
| Valley | 22.86% | 886 | 69.61% | 2698 | 7.53% | 292 | 3876 |
| Wheatland | 18.96% | 179 | 74.36% | 702 | 6.67% | 63 | 944 |
| Wibaux | 10.24% | 55 | 86.22% | 463 | 3.54% | 19 | 537 |
| Yellowstone | 32.35% | 22171 | 59.70% | 40920 | 7.96% | 5453 | 68544 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Analysis
Like every Republican nominee since 1996, Donald Trump carried Montana's three electoral votes. He won by a large margin, and he swept most of the plains counties in eastern Montana, traditionally the most conservative part of the state, by staggering margins sometimes exceeding 60 points. The eastern part of the state has benefited from the recent energy boom in neighboring North Dakota, and its populace is suspicious and disapproving of the environmental movement championed by Democrats in recent elections.
Most counties in the western part of the state were also traditionally Republican, with a ranching-based economy heavily dependent on the raising and production of cattle and hay, particularly in the counties bordering Idaho such as Beaverhead County and Ravalli County. However, an influx of retirees from the West Coast have made the western region more competitive in recent elections.[8]
The only significant counties won by Clinton were Missoula County, where the city of Missoula is located, Gallatin County, where Bozeman is located, and Big Horn County and Glacier County, which are both majority Native American. While sweeping most of the rural, majority white conservative counties of the state, Trump also won in Lewis and Clark County where the capital city of Helena is located, in neighboring Cascade County where Great Falls is located, and in Yellowstone County where the city of Billings is located.[9]
See also
References
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
- Chalian, David (4 November 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
- "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. 7 November 2016. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
- "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
- Todd, Chuck (7 November 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
- "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
- 2016 Statewide General Election Canvass (PDF) Montana Secretary Of State Linda McCulloch. Accessed December 14, 2016.
- Cohen, Micah (2012-06-21). "Presidential Geography: Montana". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2016-11-26.
- "Montana Election Results 2016". Retrieved 2016-11-26.
