2020 United States Senate election in Colorado

The 2020 United States Senate election in Colorado was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Colorado, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Not to be confused with 2020 Colorado Senate election.

2020 United States Senate election in Colorado
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee John Hickenlooper Cory Gardner
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,731,114 1,429,492
Percentage 53.5% 44.2%
County results
Hickenlooper:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%
Gardner:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%      80-90%
U.S. senator before election

Cory Gardner
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

John Hickenlooper
Democratic

Elections in Colorado
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential caucuses
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House elections
State government
General elections
Gubernatorial elections
State Senate elections
State House elections
Ballot measures
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2006
2008
2010
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2020
Aurora
Mayoral elections
Colorado Springs
Mayoral elections
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Mayoral elections

Under Colorado law, the filing deadline for U.S. Senate candidates was March 17, 2020, the third Tuesday in March of the election year; the primary election occurred on June 30.[1][2] Incumbent Republican Senator Cory Gardner ran for reelection to a second term but was defeated by former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper in the general election.[3] Gardner was unopposed in the Republican primary, and Hickenlooper defeated former State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff in the Democratic primary.[4] Gardner was one of two Republican U.S. Senators facing reelection in 2020 in a state President Donald Trump lost in 2016, the other being Susan Collins of Maine.[5] Experts believed this to be one of the most likely, if not the most likely, seats to flip to the Democrats, and they were proven to be correct, as Hickenlooper defeated Gardner by a 9.3-point margin, Hickenlooper—(53.5%) to Gardner (44.2%)—This is the only election Gardner has lost in his political career.[6]

Background

Gardner was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2014, narrowly defeating incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall in a very successful election year for Republicans. Gardner was widely considered vulnerable in 2020 due to Colorado's recent Democratic trend and his support for Trump.[7] The seat was expected to be highly competitive and the most likely Republican-held seat to flip Democratic. The Democratic nominee, former governor John Hickenlooper, had a double-digit lead over Gardner in the polls.[8]

Various minor scandals in the days leading up to the June 30 Democratic primary sparked speculation that Romanoff might win, but Hickenlooper had an advantage in name recognition, and harsh negative attacks by Romanoff reportedly led many state Democrats and voters to sour on him.[9]

Republican primary

Nominee

Withdrawn
  • Margot Dupre, estate agent[11][12]
  • Gail Prentice, veteran and business owner[13][14]

Endorsements
Cory Gardner (R)
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
Organizations
Other Individuals

Results
Republican primary results [22]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Cory Gardner (incumbent) 554,806 100.00%
Total votes 554,806 100.00%

Democratic primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Debates
Host
network
 Date Link(s) Participants
John
Hickenlooper
Andrew
Romanoff
9NEWS June 9, 2020 [56] Present Present
CBS4
PBS 12
Colorado Sun		 June 10, 2020 [57][58] Present Present
The Denver Post June 16, 2020 [59] Present Present

Endorsements
John Hickenlooper
U.S. Presidents
Former U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Local officials
Newspapers
Unions
Organizations
Andrew Romanoff
State officials
Individuals
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Jena
Griswold		 John
Hickenlooper		 Mike
Johnston		 Andrew
Romanoff		 Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA June 19–24, 2020 575 (LV) ± 6.0% – 58% – 28% 15%[lower-alpha 4]
Myers Research and Strategic Services[upper-alpha 1] June 16–17, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 51% – 39% –
Unspecified polling firm[upper-alpha 1] October 2019 – (LV)[lower-alpha 5] – – 68% – 19% –
September 3, 2019 Johnston withdraws from the race
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) – – 60%[lower-alpha 6] 3% 9% 27%[lower-alpha 7]
–[lower-alpha 8] 66% – 17% 17%[lower-alpha 9]
August 21, 2019 Hickenlooper announces his candidacy
August 9, 2019 Griswold announces that she will not run
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group July 25–28, 2019 600 (LV) – 6% 61% 10% 8% 15%[lower-alpha 10]
Public Policy Polling (D) July 12–14, 2019 561 (LV) – 4% 44% 3% 12% 38%[lower-alpha 11]
Hypothetical polling
with Dan Baer and John Hickenlooper
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Dan
Baer		 John
Hickenlooper		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) – 11% 72% 17%
with John Hickenlooper and Mike Johnston
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 John
Hickenlooper		 Mike
Johnston		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) – 69% 14% 18%
with John Hickenlooper and Alice Madden
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 John
Hickenlooper		 Alice
Madden		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) – 69% 14% 17%
with John Hickenlooper and Angela Williams
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 John
Hickenlooper		 Angela
Williams		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) – 70% 11% 18%

Caucus

On March 7, 2020, the Colorado Democratic Party held a non-binding Senate primary preference poll at its caucus sites. Attendees could choose delegates to county and then state conventions. If a candidate received at least 30% of the delegates at the state convention they would be placed on the ballot. Some candidates were not listed because they instead chose to attempt to collect signatures to reach the ballot. Candidates needed 1,500 signatures from each congressional district. Hickenlooper and Underwood chose to do both. Romanoff collected the needed signatures as of March 8, 2020.[93][94]

Caucus results

Romanoff was the only candidate to get more than 30% in the initial precinct caucuses. Hickenlooper withdrew from the assembly process soon afterward, choosing to qualify for the ballot exclusively by petition. Ballot access for assembly candidates will be decided at the state assembly. Caucus winners do not always receive the party's nomination; Romanoff won them in the 2010 Democratic primary for Colorado's Senate race, but Michael Bennet won the party's nomination that year.[95]

The aggregate results of the various precinct caucuses on March 7, 2020, were:[96]

Candidate Total Raw Votes Percentage of Vote Won (%)
Andrew Romanoff 8,629 54.98
John Hickenlooper 4,761 30.34
Trish Zornio 976 6.21
Stephany Rose Spaulding 771 4.91
Uncommitted 520 3.31
Erik Underwood 35 0.22

Results
Results by county:
Democratic primary results[97]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Hickenlooper 585,826 58.65%
Democratic Andrew Romanoff 412,955 41.35%
Total votes 998,781 100.00%

Other candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Results
Libertarian primary results [100]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Raymon Doane 3,477 62.41%
Libertarian Gaylon Kent 2,094 37.59%
Total votes 5,571 100.00%

Nominee
  • Stephan "Chairman Seku" Evans, former candidate for Mayor of Denver[101]

Eliminated at Unity Party convention

Withdrawn

Declared

Withdrawn

General election

Debate
Host Date & Time Link(s) Participants
John

Hickenlooper

 Cory Gardner
Colorado State University October 13, 2020
6:00pm MDT		 [110] Present Present

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[111] Lean D (flip) September 23, 2020
Inside Elections[112] Lean D (flip) October 16, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[113] Likely D (flip) October 1, 2020
Daily Kos[114] Lean D (flip) August 31, 2020
Politico[115] Lean D (flip) September 9, 2020
RCP[116] Lean D (flip) September 17, 2020
Niskanen[117] Safe D (flip) September 15, 2020
DDHQ[118] Likely D (flip) September 16, 2020
538[119] Likely D (flip) September 18, 2020

Endorsements
Cory Gardner (R)
U.S. Presidents
  • Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States[15]
  • George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States[15]
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
Organizations
Other Individuals
Newspapers
John Hickenlooper (D)
U.S. Presidents
Former U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Local officials
Newspapers
Unions
Organizations

Graphical Summary

Poll Results
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Cory
Gardner (R)		 John
Hickenlooper (D)		 Other /
Undecided
Keating Research/Onsight Public Affairs/Colorado Sun October 29 – November 1, 2020 502 (LV)[lower-alpha 12] ± 4.4% 42% 53% –
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 709 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 54% 2%[lower-alpha 13]
Swayable October 23 – November 1, 2020 443 (LV) ± 6% 43% 57% –
Morning Consult October 22–31, 2020 727 (LV) ± 4% 44% 52% –
Morning Consult October 11–20, 2020 788 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 50% –
RBI Strategies & Research October 12–16, 2020 502 (LV) ± 4.4% 39% 53% 7%[lower-alpha 14]
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ October 9–15, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 51% 7%[lower-alpha 15]
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 11–14, 2020 1,013 (LV) ± 3.6% 42% 53% 3%[lower-alpha 16]
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson October 8–13, 2020 519 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 51% 7%[lower-alpha 17]
Morning Consult October 2–11, 2020 837 (LV) ± 3.4% 40% 50% –
YouGov/University of Colorado October 5–9, 2020 800 (LV) ± 4.64% 40% 48% 12%[lower-alpha 18]
SurveyUSA October 1–6, 2020 1,021 (LV) ± 3.9% 39% 48% 14%[lower-alpha 19]
Morning Consult September 11–20, 2020 613 (LV) ± (2% – 7%) 42%[lower-alpha 20] 49% –
Morning Consult September 8–17, 2020 599 (LV)[lower-alpha 21] ± (2% – 4%) 44% 46% –
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[upper-alpha 3] August 30 – September 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 51% 4%[lower-alpha 22]
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 4] August 28 – September 1, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 52% 5%
Morning Consult August 21–30, 2020 638 (LV) ± 4.0% 39%[lower-alpha 23] 48% 13%
Morning Consult August 16–25, 2020 ~600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 48% –
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] August 18–19, 2020 731 (V) ± 3.2% 42% 51% 7%[lower-alpha 24]
Morning Consult August 6–15, 2020 ~600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 49% –
Morning Consult July 27 – August 5, 2020 ~600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 50% –
Morning Consult July 17–26, 2020 616 (LV) ± 4.0% 42%[lower-alpha 25] 48% 11%[lower-alpha 26]
Morning Consult July 13–22, 2020 ~600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 50% –
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 6] June 29–30, 2020 840 (V) ± 3.4% 40% 51% 9%[lower-alpha 27]
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson May 1–3, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 54% 10%[lower-alpha 28]
Montana State University Bozeman April 10–19, 2020 379 (LV) ± 4.4% 31% 48% 21%[lower-alpha 29]
Keating Research October 10–14, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 53% 5%
Emerson College August 16–19, 2019 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 53% 8%
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 7] August 13–14, 2019 617 (LV) ± 3.9% 39% 49% 13%
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 2] August 8–11, 2019 739 (V) ± 3.6% 38% 51% 12%
Hypothetical polling
with generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Cory
Gardner (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Other /
Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 7] August 13–14, 2019 617 (LV) ± 3.9% 38% 48% 14%
Global Strategy Group January 31 – February 4, 2019 818 (RV) ± 3.4% 40% 51% 9%
DFM Research January 2–5, 2019 550 (A) ± 4.2% 38% 46% 16%
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 8] December 2–4, 2018 540 (LV) ± 4.2% 41% 47% –
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 9] August 2–3, 2017 628 (V) ± 3.8% 41% 46% 13%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 10] June 30 – July 1, 2017 870 (V) ± 3.6% 39% 53% 8%
on whether Cory Gardner deserves to be re-elected
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Yes No Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 32% 50% 19%[lower-alpha 30]
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Other /
Undecided
YouGov/University of Colorado October 5–9, 2020 800 (LV) ± 4.64% 39% 47% 14%[lower-alpha 31]
Climate Nexus February 15–19, 2020 485 (RV) ± 4.5% 40% 48% 12%[lower-alpha 32]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 44% 14%[lower-alpha 33]
Former candidates
with Mike Johnston
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Cory
Gardner (R)		 Mike
Johnston (D)		 Other Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 7] August 13–14, 2019 617 (LV) ± 3.9% 39% 50% – 11%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 39% 2%[lower-alpha 34] 14%

Results

The election was not close, with Hickenlooper winning by 9.32%. Hickenlooper's win was expected, as Colorado has moved more toward being a blue state. Key to Hickenlooper's victory was Denver County and its surrounding suburban counties, Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, and Jefferson. Gardner did well in the typically red El Paso County, home of Colorado Springs. Gardner also did well in many rural areas of the state. However, Hickenlooper's strong performance in heavily populated counties proved too much for Gardner to overcome. Hickenlooper was also likely helped by Joe Biden, who won the state by 13.5%. Hickenlooper will be the first senator from Colorado who was also the Governor of Colorado since Senator Edwin Johnson was elected in 1936. Hickenlooper was sworn in as Senator on January 3, 2021, for a six-year term that expires on January 3, 2027.

United States Senate election in Colorado, 2020[146][147]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic John Hickenlooper 1,731,114 53.50% +7.24%
Republican Cory Gardner (incumbent) 1,429,492 44.18% -4.03%
Libertarian Raymon Doane 56,262 1.74% -0.85%
Approval Voting Daniel Doyle 9,820 0.30% N/A
Unity Stephen Evans 8,971 0.28% -0.04%
Total votes 3,235,659 100.0%
Democratic gain from Republican

See also

Notes
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Romanoff's campaign
  2. Poll sponsored by 314 Action
  3. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  4. Poll sponsored by Progress Colorado, a progressive and pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  5. Giffords endorsed Hickenlooper prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. End Citizens United supports candidates who oppose the landmark Citizens United Supreme Court ruling
  7. Poll conducted for Mike Johnston
  8. Poll sponsored by ProgressNow Colorado
  9. Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line
  10. Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
Voter samples
  1. A judge ruled that Lorena Garcia could appear on the ballot despite only getting 50% of the signatures needed to qualify, citing how signatures can't be collected due to COVID-19. The Colorado Supreme Court overruled the ruling after an appeal from Colorado's Secretary of State.
  2. A judge ruled that Michelle Ferrigno Warren could appear on the ballot despite only getting 50% of the signatures needed to qualify, citing how signatures can't be collected due to COVID-19. The Colorado Supreme Court overruled the ruling after an appeal from Colorado's Secretary of State.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. Undecided with 15%
  5. Not yet released
  6. Standard VI response
  7. Undecided with 16%; Baer, Madden and Williams with 2%; Walsh with 1%; "someone else" with 4%
  8. With only Hickenlooper and Romanoff as candidates
  9. Undecided with 17%
  10. Undecided with 15%
  11. Undecided with 29%; Walsh with 4%; Williams with 3%; Baer and Madden with 1%
  12. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  13. "Other candidate or write-in" with 2%
  14. Doane (L) with 2%; Evans (Unity) with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  15. "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  16. Doane (L) with 2%; Doyle (Approval Voting), Evans (Unity) and "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 1%
  17. "Other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  18. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  19. "Some other candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 8%
  20. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  21. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  22. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  23. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  24. Undecided with 7%
  25. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size and voters who are undecided or for third party candidates
  26. "Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 6%
  27. Undecided with 9%
  28. Undecided with 9%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  29. "Don't know" with 17%; "other/none of the above" with 4%
  30. "Refused" with 3%; Undecided with 16%
  31. "Other" with 2%; Undecided with 12%
  32. "Neither candidate or other candidate" with 12%
  33. "Undecided" with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 4%
  34. Would not vote/would not vote for U.S. Senate with 2%

References
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  2. "Colorado Revised Statutes Title 1 Elections § 1-4-801 Designation of party candidates by petition". Colorado Revised Statutes. State of Colorado. 2019. Retrieved February 23, 2019.
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  4. "2020 State Primary Results Certificate" (PDF). Retrieved January 31, 2021.
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  10. "GARDNER, CORY - Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
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