2016 United States presidential election in Colorado

The 2016 United States presidential election in Colorado was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Colorado voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Colorado has nine electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Colorado
November 8, 2016
Turnout74.39% [1]
 
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Home state New York New York New Mexico
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence Bill Weld
Electoral vote 9 0 0
Popular vote 1,338,870 1,202,484 144,121
Percentage 48.16% 43.25% 5.18%
County Results
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Colorado
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential caucuses
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House elections
State government
General elections
Gubernatorial elections
State Senate elections
State House elections
Ballot measures
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2018
2020
Aurora
Mayoral elections
Colorado Springs
Mayoral elections
Denver
Mayoral elections
Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county

Clinton received 48.2% of the vote, carrying the state's nine electoral votes. Trump received 43.3% of the vote, thus marking a Democratic margin of victory of 4.9%. This was the third time since achieving statehood that the Republican candidate won the election without carrying Colorado, and the second time since statehood that Colorado has voted Democratic in three consecutive presidential elections. No Republican had won the White House without carrying the state since 1908 prior to this election.

Trump won five counties that had voted for Barack Obama in 2012: Conejos, Chaffee, Huerfano, Las Animas, and Pueblo. The latter two counties had not supported a Republican for president since Richard Nixon's 49-state landslide in 1972. Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Jefferson, Arapahoe, or Larimer Counties since William McKinley in 1900.

Primary elections

Democratic caucuses
Main article: 2016 Colorado Democratic caucuses

Opinion polling
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries § Colorado

Results
See also: Results of the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Caucus date
March 1, 2016
 2016 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Colorado
– Summary of results –
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 72,846 58.98% 41 0 41
Hillary Clinton 49,789 40.31% 25 9 34
Uncommitted 822 0.67% 0 3 3
Others 51 0.04%
Total 123,508 100% 66 12 78
Sources: The Green Papers and Colorado Democrats 2016 Caucus results
Detailed results for the Colorado Democratic caucuses, March 1, 2016[3]
District Total estimate Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
Votes Estimated
delegates		 Votes Estimated
delegates		 Votes Estimated
delegates
1st district 29,474 8 16,232 4 13,242 4
2nd district 30,624 7 19,376 4 11,248 3
3rd district 14,671 6 8,956 4 5,715 2
4th district 10,060 5 6,115 3 3,945 2
5th district 10,315 5 6,338 3 3,977 2
6th district 12,836 6 6,675 3 6,161 3
7th district 14,655 6 9,154 4 5,501 4
At-large delegates 122,635 14 72,846 8 49,789 6
Pledged PLEOs 9 5 4
Total 66 38 28

Results of the county assemblies Timeframe for the county assemblies: March 2–26, 2016

Colorado Democratic county assemblies, March 2–26, 2016

Candidate State + District delegates[4] Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 37261.39%
Hillary Clinton 23438.61%
Uncommitted
Total 606100%
Results of the congressional district conventions
District Delegates
available		 Delegates won
Sanders Clinton
1st district 8 5 3
2nd district 7 4 3
3rd district 6 4 2
4th district 5 3 2
5th district 5 3 2
6th district 6 3 3
7th district 6 4 2
Total 43 26 17
Results of the state convention

State convention date: April 16, 2016

Colorado Democratic State Convention, April 16, 2016[3]
Candidate State convention delegates National delegates won
Count Percentage At-large PLEO Total
Bernie Sanders 1,900 62.3% 9 6 15
Hillary Clinton 1,150 37.7% 5 3 8
Total 3,050 100.0% 14 9 23

Republican conventions

From April 2–8, 2016, conventions were held in each of Colorado's seven congressional districts. Cruz swept all seven, winning 21 delegates total.[5][6][7][8] On April 9, 2016, the state convention was held to elect the 13 statewide delegates and the 3 RNC delegates.[9] Again, Cruz won all 13 statewide at-large delegates.[10] Cruz was also the only candidate to address the state convention.

A proposal to forbid Colorado Republican delegates from voting for Donald Trump was written in March 2016 by Robert Zubrin.[11] The group "Colorado Republicans for Liberty" handed out fliers of Zubrin's resolution at the state's convention. Irregularities on the ballot were discovered at the state's convention. Delegate #379 (Jerome Parks, a Trump delegate) was replaced on the ballot with a duplicate of delegate #378 (a Ted Cruz delegate).[12] The Colorado Republican Party's Twitter account posted the message "We did it #NeverTrump" after Cruz received all the bound delegates at the April convention. The party claims somebody hacked its Twitter account, and the party claims to be investigating how the message was posted.[13][14] In May 2015, the Colorado Senate defeated a bill to hold a 2016 presidential primary. State senators Kevin Grantham, Kent Lambert, Laura J. Woods, and Jerry Sonnenberg voted to stop the bill.[15] Sonnenberg, Woods, Grantham, and Lambert are members of the Ted Cruz "Colorado Leadership Team" for Ted Cruz.[16] Congressman Ken Buck and Colorado Secretary of State Wayne Williams are also members of the Ted Cruz "Colorado Leadership Team".[16]

The conventions were selected through statewide caucuses, which were conducted at the precinct level on March 1.[9] No voter preference poll was held due to a decision in August by the state party to cancel it.[17]

Three candidates contested the Republican presidential conventions:

Marco Rubio and Ben Carson had dropped out of the race by the time the conventions were held, though they were still running during the March 1 caucuses.

Colorado Republican district conventions, April 2, 2016, April 7–8, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Ted Cruz 0 0.0% 17 4 21
Donald Trump 0 0.0% 0 0 0
John Kasich 0 0.0% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn) 0 0.0% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 0 0.0% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 0 0.0% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 0 100.00% 17 4 21
Source: The Green Papers
Colorado Republican state convention, April 9, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Ted Cruz 0 0.0% 13 0 13
Donald Trump 0 0.0% 0 1 1
John Kasich 0 0.0% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn) 0 0.0% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 0 0.0% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 0 0.0% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 2 2
Total: 0 100.00% 13 3 16
Source: The Green Papers

Green Party convention

On April 3, the Green Party of Colorado held a presidential nominating convention in Centennial, Colorado, for registered Green voters.[18]

On April 4, the Green Party of Colorado announced that Jill Stein had won the convention and received all 5 delegates.[19]

Colorado Green Party Convention, April 3, 2016.
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Jill Stein - - 5
William Kreml - - -
Kent Mesplay - - -
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry - - -
Darryl Cherney - - -
Uncommitted - - -
Total - - 5


Analysis

Historically, Colorado has been, following the Bryan-Wilson period, one of the most Republican states in the nation. From 1920 through 2004, Colorado voted Democratic only five times--in Franklin Roosevelt's two landslide wins in 1932 and 1936; for Harry Truman in 1948; in Lyndon Johnson's landslide win in 1964; and for Bill Clinton in 1992, with Ross Perot running substantially ahead of his national showing in the state. (With the shrinkage of the Perot vote in 1996, Colorado, along with Montana, another Western state where Perot had performed exceptionally well, reverted to Dole.) Before 2016, no Republican had won without Colorado since 1908.

However, increasing urbanization in the Front Range Urban Corridor, along with the growth of minority populations (especially Hispanics) have chipped away from Republican dominance in the state: while President George W. Bush won the state in the 2004 election, it was one of the few states where Republican performance fell (with Bush's margin being nearly halved with respect to 2000), presaging Barack Obama's two Colorado wins in 2008 and 2012.

Trump did improve upon previous Republican candidates in Southern Colorado, carrying three of the area's counties (Conejos County, Las Animas County and Huerfano County), a feat not accomplished by any Republican since George H. W. Bush in his decisive 1988 victory. He also carried Pueblo County by a 0.49% margin, becoming the first Republican to carry it since 1972.[20] Southern Colorado, a blue-collar, working-class, industrial area, had once been the state's Democratic stronghold, but Democratic dominance of the region is starting to fade. Trump also did well in the traditionally Republican Western Slope, where counties such as Mesa County (home to Grand Junction) went for Trump by a 2–1 margin.

However, as is with the case with Nevada and other states in the American Southwest that have been experiencing increasing urbanization and a rapidly growing Hispanic population, Clinton won by running up the margins in the rapidly growing metro areas of the state, in this case principally Denver and its suburbs, as well as Boulder and Fort Collins. Hillary Clinton exceeded Obama's performance in the City and County of Denver and Boulder County. While these had long been the Democrats' main base in Colorado, Republicans had typically managed at least a quarter of the vote in the former and at least 30% in the latter when Colorado was a Republican state. In contrast, Trump managed only 18.9% and 22.0% in the two jurisdictions, respectively. Hillary Clinton did not improve on Obama in Larimer County (home of Fort Collins), but she did win the county, which had voted Republican in every election from 1920 through 2004 save 1936, 1964, and 1992, and Trump posted the worst showing for a Republican in the county since 1992.

Similarly, even though Hillary Clinton did not improve on Obama's showing in the suburban Denver-area counties of Arapahoe and Jefferson, she nevertheless carried both, both of which had been Republican strongholds up through 2004. Trump posted some of the worst results Republicans have had in decades in this region. Trump only won 39% of the vote in Arapahoe County, which includes some of the largest Denver suburbs such as Aurora and Centennial; before Obama won this county in 2008, this county had not gone Democratic since 1964. Trump won only one county in the metro area (Douglas County—home to suburbs such as Parker, Highlands Ranch and Castle Rock), but with only 54% of the vote—one of the poorest performances in the area's most Republican county in decades. Only in Adams County, the one county in the area outside the city of Denver itself that had been a Democratic stronghold prior to 2008, did Trump manage to improve upon Romney, but even here he was barely above 40% of the vote.

Meanwhile, while Trump did win the one remaining large Republican stronghold in the state, El Paso County (home of Colorado Springs), he won with only 56% of the vote, performing worse in the county than McCain in 2008 or Dole in 1996. The confluence of Hillary Clinton's strength in Denver, Boulder, and the Denver suburbs, and Trump's weakness in El Paso County, ultimately handed the state to Clinton.

In downballot races, Mike Coffman was ultimately able to hold on to his seat in a Clinton-carried district around Arapahoe County. Democrats made big gains in this area in the State House and Senate. However, Republicans were able to gain a seat in Adams County, ultimately holding on to the State Senate.

General election

Polling
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Colorado

Throughout the race, Clinton lead in almost every poll in margins varying between 1 and 11 points, with a few polls showing a tie or a Trump lead. One of the last polls showed a tie between Clinton and Trump, but the last poll showed Clinton leading Trump 50% to 45%, which was very accurate compared to the results.[21] The average of the last three polls showed Clinton leading Trump 44% to 41%. [22]

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
ABC News[23] Lean D November 8, 2016
CNN[24] Lean D November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[25] Lean D November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[26] Lean D November 8, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] Likely D November 7, 2016

Statewide results

Voter turnout for the 2016 United States presidential election in Colorado was 72.4%.[28][29]

2016 United States presidential election in Colorado[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hillary Clinton 1,338,870 48.12%
Republican Donald Trump 1,202,484 43.31%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 144,121 5.17%
Green Jill Stein 38,437 1.37%
Independent Evan McMullin 28,917 1.04%
Constitution Darrell Castle 11,699 0.42%
Veterans Chris Keniston 5,028 0.18%
Independent Mike Smith 1,819 0.07%
American Delta Rocky De La Fuente 1,255 0.04%
Independent American Kyle Kopitke 1,096 0.04%
Independent Joseph Maldonado 872 0.03%
American Solidarity Michael A. Maturen 862 0.03%
Independent Rod Silva 751 0.03%
Independent Ryan Scott 749 0.03%
Independent Tom Hoefling 710 0.03%
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva 531 0.02%
Socialist Workers Alyson Kennedy 452 0.02%
Independent Laurence Kotlikoff 392 0.01%
Independent Bradford Lyttle 382 0.01%
Independent Frank Atwood 337 0.01%
Socialist Mimi Soltysik 271 0.01%
Prohibition James Hedges 185 0.01%
Write-in 27 0.00%
Total votes 2,780,247 100.00%

Results by county
CountyClinton%Clinton#Trump%Trump#Johnson%Johnson#Others%Others#Total[20]
Adams49.86%96,55841.35%80,0825.11%9,8933.70%7,144193,677
Alamosa45.96%3,18943.90%3,0465.84%4054.31%2996,939
Arapahoe52.76%159,88538.63%117,0535.28%16,0023.33%10,108303,048
Archuleta34.06%2,50058.10%4,2644.51%3313.32%2447,339
Baca13.14%28381.42%1,7532.37%513.07%662,153
Bent30.62%59061.65%1,1884.31%833.42%661,927
Boulder70.34%132,33422.00%41,3964.27%8,0343.39%6,381188,145
Broomfield52.35%19,73138.12%14,3675.77%2,1743.76%1,41837,690
Chaffee43.45%4,88847.92%5,3914.77%5373.86%43411,250
Cheyenne11.98%13283.94%9252.81%311.26%141,102
Clear Creek46.52%2,72943.90%2,5756.22%3653.36%1975,866
Conejos44.03%1,77147.59%1,9144.13%1664.25%1714,022
Costilla60.88%1,12531.82%5884.49%832.81%521,848
Crowley22.20%33970.66%1,0794.13%633.02%461,527
Custer25.99%79767.22%2,0614.60%1412.18%673,066
Delta24.34%4,08769.42%11,6552.83%4753.41%57316,790
Denver73.69%244,55118.89%62,6904.48%14,8612.94%9,750331,852
Dolores19.28%24275.22%9442.47%313.04%381,255
Douglas36.62%68,65754.71%102,5735.45%10,2123.23%6,058187,500
Eagle55.90%14,09935.64%8,9905.42%1,3683.04%76625,223
El Paso33.86%108,01056.19%179,2286.23%19,8773.71%11,853318,968
Elbert19.61%3,13473.26%11,7054.17%6662.97%47515,980
Fremont24.11%5,29768.82%15,1224.05%8903.03%66421,973
Garfield42.58%11,27149.61%13,1324.29%1,1353.53%93226,470
Gilpin45.69%1,63443.79%1,5665.40%1935.12%1833,576
Grand39.10%3,35852.33%4,4945.67%4872.90%2498,588
Gunnison54.48%5,12834.94%3,2896.32%5954.25%4009,412
Hinsdale33.45%19757.56%3394.58%274.42%26589
Huerfano43.17%1,63349.78%1,8833.99%1513.06%1163,783
Jackson19.86%17173.05%6294.76%412.32%20861
Jefferson48.89%160,77642.01%138,1775.64%18,5373.47%11,393328,883
Kiowa10.64%9185.15%7282.81%241.40%12855
Kit Carson14.48%53680.15%2,9672.57%952.81%1043,702
La Plata49.84%15,52540.41%12,5876.03%1,8783.72%1,16031,150
Lake50.52%1,61639.70%1,2705.41%1734.39%1403,199
Larimer47.51%93,11342.57%83,4305.87%11,5104.04%7,928195,981
Las Animas39.01%2,65054.62%3,7103.69%2512.68%1826,793
Lincoln16.79%40977.67%1,8923.16%772.38%582,436
Logan19.04%1,85174.90%7,2823.28%3192.78%2709,722
Mesa27.98%21,72964.10%49,7794.73%3,6753.18%2,47177,654
Mineral36.35%23752.76%3446.44%424.45%29652
Moffat13.39%87481.30%5,3052.74%1792.57%1676,525
Montezuma30.90%3,97361.07%7,8534.23%5443.79%48812,858
Montrose25.80%5,46667.88%14,3823.47%7352.85%60321,186
Morgan26.35%3,15168.10%8,1452.93%3502.63%31411,960
Otero34.82%2,94358.31%4,9283.79%3203.08%2618,452
Ouray51.27%1,69740.82%1,3514.53%1503.38%1123,310
Park32.84%3,42158.89%6,1354.89%5093.38%35210,417
Phillips18.70%43676.80%1,7912.57%601.93%452,332
Pitkin69.69%7,33324.23%2,5503.55%3742.53%26610,523
Prowers23.64%1,18670.39%3,5313.09%1552.88%1445,016
Pueblo45.62%35,87546.11%36,2655.18%4,0723.09%2,43478,646
Rio Blanco12.64%43680.90%2,7913.42%1183.04%1053,450
Rio Grande36.16%2,00155.75%3,0854.19%2323.90%2165,534
Routt54.34%7,60037.39%5,2305.16%7223.10%43413,986
Saguache49.98%1,41740.46%1,1473.25%926.31%1792,835
San Juan52.37%26542.49%2153.36%171.79%9506
San Miguel68.72%2,97523.86%1,0333.56%1543.87%1674,329
Sedgwick19.57%26774.41%1,0152.05%283.96%541,364
Summit59.09%9,55731.53%5,1006.18%1,0003.20%51716,174
Teller24.94%3,60367.47%9,7454.67%6742.92%42214,444
Washington10.83%29684.12%2,2993.00%822.05%562,733
Weld34.45%46,51956.60%76,6515.53%7,4873.52%4,773135,430
Yuma15.15%72680.36%3,8502.46%1182.02%974,791
Colorado Total48.16%1,338,87043.25%1,202,4845.18%144,1213.41%94,7722,780,247

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[30]

By congressional district

Clinton won 4 of 7 congressional districts including one held by a Republican representative.[31]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 23% 69% Diana DeGette
2nd 35% 56% Jared Polis
3rd 52% 40% Scott Tipton
4th 57% 34% Ken Buck
5th 57% 33% Doug Lamborn
6th 41% 50% Mike Coffman
7th 40% 52% Ed Perlmutter

See also

References
  1. "Election Results 2016" (PDF). sos.state.co.us. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
  2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
  3. "Colorado Democratic Delegation 2016". Thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  4. "CDP National Delegate Candidates.xlsx" (PDF). Coloradodems.org. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-04-15. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  5. "Ted Cruz wins first 6 Colorado delegates, Donald Trump shut out". The Spot. Retrieved May 12, 2016.
  6. Benjy Sarlin. "Colorado Loss Reveals Chaotic, Overwhelmed Trump Campaign". NBC News. Retrieved May 12, 2016.
  7. "2016 Presidential Caucuses & Conventions". thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved May 12, 2016.
  8. "Ted Cruz Wins Majority of Delegates in Colorado". The New York Times. April 9, 2016. Retrieved May 12, 2016.
  9. "Colorado Republican Delegation 2016". thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved May 12, 2016.
  10. John Frank; Joey Bunch (April 9, 2016). "Ted Cruz dominates Colorado GOP convention winning all 34 delegates". The Denver Post. Retrieved May 12, 2016.
  11. "Blog: Colorado GOP resolution: No voting for Trump". americanthinker.com. Retrieved May 12, 2016.
  12. Benjy Sarlin. "Cruz Sweeps Colorado as Trump Campaign Issues Error-Filled Ballots". NBC News. Retrieved May 12, 2016.
  13. Oscar Contreras (2016-04-10). "Colorado GOP hastily deletes 'Never Trump' tweet following sweeping Ted Cruz delegate victory - 7NEWS Denver". Thedenverchannel.com. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  14. "Colorado GOP deletes #nevertrump tweet, pledges investigation". POLITICO. Retrieved May 12, 2016.
  15. "Senate GOP kills party's own push for 2016 presidential primary". The Spot. Retrieved May 12, 2016.
  16. "Cruz for President Announces Colorado Leadership Team". Cruz for President. Archived from the original on May 7, 2016. Retrieved May 12, 2016.
  17. John Frank (August 25, 2015). "Colorado Republicans cancel presidential vote at 2016 caucus". The Denver Post. Retrieved May 12, 2016.
  18. "PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION CONVENTION". Colorado Green Party. 2015-12-14. Retrieved 2016-02-20.
  19. "Green Party of Colorado". Retrieved April 4, 2016.
  20. http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
  21. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html#polls
  22. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html#polls
  23. "The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election". ABC News. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  24. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  25. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  26. "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  27. Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  28. Williams, Wayne W. (November 16, 2016). "Colorado Election Results". Colorado Secretary of State. Retrieved November 16, 2016.
  29. Griswold, JennaW. (October 31, 2020). "2016 Voter Registration Statistics". Colorado Secretary of State. Retrieved June 18, 2020.
  30. Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2020-09-01.
  31. http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
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