2018 Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district special election

A special election for Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district was held on March 13, 2018, following the resignation of Republican Representative Tim Murphy.[1] Murphy, who held the seat since January 3, 2003, declared his intent to resign on October 5, 2017, and vacated his seat on October 21 that year. Democrat Conor Lamb defeated Republican Rick Saccone 49.86% to 49.53%. Saccone conceded the race eight days after the election.[2]

2018 Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district special election
March 13, 2018
Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district
 
Nominee Conor Lamb Rick Saccone
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 114,102 113,347
Percentage 49.86% 49.53%
U.S. Representative before election

Tim Murphy
Republican

 Elected U.S. Representative

Conor Lamb
Democratic

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Background

Eight-term incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Tim Murphy was involved in a sex scandal consisting of his allegedly having extramarital sexual relations with a woman and then asking her to have an abortion. This was particularly damaging because Murphy identifies as a pro-life politician. Murphy subsequently announced that he was resigning and that he would leave office on October 21.[3][4]

Primary elections were not held in the race. Instead, nominees were chosen by each party. The Republican Party held a special convention on November 11, 2017, to choose a nominee through a conferee process involving 215 local Republican activists.[5][6] The Democratic Party held their nominating convention on November 19, 2017.[7] The Libertarian Party of Allegheny County and the Libertarian Party of Washington County nominated a candidate via party caucus.[8]

At the time, Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District was located in Western Pennsylvania and bordered the state of West Virginia. It included portions of Greene, Washington, Allegheny and Westmoreland counties.[9] The district had a Cook PVI score of R+11.[10] This was the last election for Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district held under the configuration made in 2011 by the Pennsylvania Legislature as new districts have been drawn in accordance with the ruling of the state supreme court in League of Women Voters v. Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and came into effect for the main 2018 congressional elections in November.[11][12][13] The bulk of the old 18th became the 14th District.

Republican conferee meeting

Declared

Failed to qualify
  • George Karpacs, Pennsylvania College Access Program board member[17]

Withdrew

Results
Republican conferree meeting[20][21]
Candidate First ballot Pct. Second ballot Pct.
Rick Saccone 74 34.4% 123 57.5%
Guy Reschenthaler 75 34.9% 91 42.5%
Kim Ward 66 30.7% Eliminated

Democratic convention

Declared

Declined

Results
Democratic convention[28][29][30][31]
Candidate First ballot Pct. Second ballot Pct.
Conor Lamb 225 40.6% 319 58.5%
Gina Cerilli 153 27.6% 152 27.9%
Pam Iovino 90 16.2% 74 13.6%
Mike Crossey 47 8.5% Eliminated
Rueben Brock 21 3.8% Eliminated
Bob Solomon 18 3.2% Eliminated
Keith Seewald 0 0.0% Eliminated

Libertarian Party nomination

The Libertarian candidate was Pittsburgh attorney Drew Gray Miller. Prior to this however, a primary candidate was Philip Mosses, a high school government teacher. Moses ended his campaign in early 2018.

General election

Candidates

Official Sample Ballot

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[35] Toss-Up February 27, 2018
Inside Elections/Rothenberg Political Report[36] Toss-Up February 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] Toss-Up March 8, 2018

Campaign

The major party candidates were Republican Rick Saccone and Democrat Conor Lamb, in a district that Donald Trump carried by almost 20 points in the 2016 presidential election.[38] The special election attracted national attention[39] and was seen by many political analysts and commentators as a bellwether on the popularity of Donald Trump, Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and the Republican Party.[39][40][41][42][43][44] Saccone said the special election was a referendum on Trump's presidency and called himself "Trump before Trump was Trump".[45][46][47] Prominent Republicans including Donald Trump (twice), Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, and Mike Pence came to the state to campaign for Saccone.[48] The district was contested by a third-party candidate (Libertarian Drew Gray Miller) for the first time since 1996.[49]

Campaign funding

Republicans and aligned groups spent more than twice as much as Democrats and aligned groups on the special election.[50] Although Lamb's campaign fund raised more than Saccone's campaign fund, Saccone benefited from far more spending by outside groups than Lamb.[50]

The Republican Party and outside pro-Republican "independent expenditure" groups spent almost $10.7 million to support Saccone or oppose Lamb in the campaign, while $2.6 million in independent expenditures was spent in support of Lamb.[51] Fourteen outside groups (seven Republican, seven Democrat) comprised over 95% of the spending. For the Republican side, the major groups spending money on Saccone's behalf were Paul Ryan's Congressional Leadership Fund, the National Republican Congressional Committee, the Republican National Committee, and the pro-Trump groups America First Action and 45Committee. For the Democratic side, the major groups spending money on Lamb's behalf were the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Patriot Majority PAC, and the VoteVets.org Action Fund.[51]

Debates

KDKA-TV hosted the first debate on February 19, 2018.[52] WTAE-TV hosted the second and final debate on March 3, 2018, at 7 PM EST. The debate was hosted live by WTAE-TV along with the League of Women Voters of Greater Pittsburgh.[53][54]

Host
network		 Date Link(s) Participants
Conor
Lamb (D)		 Drew Gray
Miller (L)		 Rick
Saccone (R)
WTAE-TV March 3, 2018 [55] Invited — Invited
KDKA-TV February 19, 2018 [56][57][58] Invited — Invited

Endorsements
Rick Saccone (R)
Federal politicians
Individuals
Unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Conor Lamb (D)
Federal politicians
Local and statewide politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers and news websites
Drew Gray Miller (L)
Politicians

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Rick
Saccone (R)		 Conor
Lamb (D)		 Other Undecided
Monmouth University March 8–11, 2018 372 ± 5.1% 45% 51% 1% 3%
RABA Research March 6–8, 2018 707 ± 3.7% 44% 48% – 9%
Gravis Marketing March 1–5, 2018 911 ± 3.3% 45% 42% – 13%
Emerson College March 1–3, 2018 474 ± 4.8% 45% 48% – 7%
Gravis Marketing February 13–15, 2018 602 ± 4.2% 45% 40% – 15%
Monmouth University February 12–14, 2018 320 ± 5.5% 49% 46% 1% 4%
DFM Research (D) January 18–19, 2018 384 ± 5.0% 41% 38% – 21%
Gravis Marketing January 3–5, 2018 513 ± 4.3% 46% 34% – 20%

Results
Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district special election, 2018[112]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Conor Lamb 114,102 49.86% +49.86%
Republican Rick Saccone 113,347 49.53% -50.47%
Libertarian Drew Gray Miller 1,381 0.60% +0.60%
Total votes 228,830 100.00%
Plurality 755 0.33% -99.67%
Democratic gain from Republican Swing

Lamb declared victory just after midnight on March 14.[113] With all precincts reporting, Lamb led Saccone by 627 votes, a margin of 0.2 percent. NBC News declared Lamb the apparent winner early on the morning of March 14, based on the remaining absentee ballots from Washington County.[114] The New York Times followed suit later that afternoon.[38] A few other outlets declared Lamb the winner in what has been described as "a major upset",[115][116] but others withheld judgment, citing the closeness of the race and the likelihood of a recount.[117] Saccone conceded the race to Lamb on March 21, the day that the last votes were counted.[118] Allegheny County certified its election results on April 2, making Conor Lamb's victory official.[119] He was sworn in on April 12.

Lamb's victory came primarily on the strength of winning the Allegheny County portion of the district by almost 15,400 votes, as he lost the rest of the district by 14,700 votes.[120]

Results by county
Vote breakdown by county[119]
Conor Lamb
Democrat		 Rick Saccone
Republican		 Drew Gray Miller
Libertarian		 Margin Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Allegheny58,87457.25%43,39842.24%5260.51%15,47615.01%102,798
Greene2,02241.56%2,80057.56%430.88%77816.00%4,865
Washington22,75746.16%26,19853.14%3440.70%3,4416.98%49,299
Westmoreland30,44942.37%40,95156.98%4680.65%10,50214.61%71,868

See also

References
  1. "Governor Wolf Sets Special Election for PA's 18th Congressional District". Governor of Pennsylvania Newsroom. October 23, 2017.
  2. Tacopino, Joe (March 21, 2018). "Rick Saccone finally concedes Pennsylvania special election". New York Post. Retrieved November 19, 2020.
  3. Deppen, Colin (October 6, 2017). "How the special election for Rep. Tim Murphy's seat will work — and which party might win". The Incline. Retrieved October 14, 2017.
  4. Herring, An-Li (October 9, 2017). "Tim Murphy's Open Congressional Seat Is Already Highly Contested". 90.5 WESA. Retrieved October 14, 2017.
  5. "PA GOP Picks Conferees for PA-18 Special Election". Retrieved November 14, 2017.
  6. Potter, Chris [@CPotterPgh] (November 11, 2017). "After second round of voting, GOP has its nominee for the PA-18 special election: state Rep. Rick Saccone. Dems recommend their champion to state leaders next Sunday" (Tweet). Retrieved November 14, 2017 – via Twitter.
  7. "PA-18 Special Election". Pennsylvania Democratic Party. Archived from the original on November 12, 2017. Retrieved November 14, 2017.
  8. "Libertarian Party Nominates Candidate for 18th Congressional District Special Election". Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania. Retrieved January 28, 2018.
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  19. @CPotterPgh (November 11, 2017). "Here at the GOP conferee process for selecting their nominee in the PA-18 special. State Rep. Jason Ortitay withdrew prior to voting. No candidate achieved majority on first ballot, so state Sen. Kim Ward is dropped for second round, leaving Guy Reschenthaler and Rick Saccone" (Tweet). Retrieved November 11, 2017 – via Twitter.
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  74. Jones sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Lamb.
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  76. "PA-18: Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D. MA) Helps Conor Lamb (D) Keep The Democratic Wave Rolling". Daily Kos. January 18, 2018.
  77. Seth Moulton [@SethMoulton] (November 30, 2017). "After serving as a Marine, Conor Lamb returned home to PA to work as an Assistant U.S. Attorney. He prosecuted drug dealers and violent offenders to fight the opioid epidemic. Now he's running for Congress, and I'm proud to endorse him. Learn more:" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  93. 32BJ SEIU [@32BJSEIU] (February 10, 2018). "We're proud to endorse @ConorLambPA today. We need him in Washington to fight for labor rights, good jobs, Social Security, Medicare & strong schools. #UnionStrong #PA18" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  101. "End Citizens United Endorses Conor Lamb in PA-18 Special Election - End Citizens United". End Citizens United. January 17, 2018.
  102. "Humane Society Legislative Fund endorses Conor Lamb for Congress". Humane Society Legislative Fund. February 22, 2018.
  103. J Street [@jstreetdotorg] (February 6, 2018). "J Street is proud to endorse @ConorLambPA in next month's PA-18 special election" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  104. "PA-18: Jason Kander's PAC Doubles Down To Pull Off Another Doug Jones-Style Victory". Daily Kos. February 20, 2018.
  105. Richtman, Max (February 14, 2018). "National Committee Endorses Conor Lamb for House in PA -18 Special Election". NCPSSM. Archived from the original on February 15, 2018. Retrieved February 15, 2018.
  106. "Raising Our Future PAC Endorses Conor Lamb In Pennsylvania's 18th District Special Election – Raising Our Future". www.raisingourfuture.org. March 6, 2018.
  107. Jon Bauman [@JonBowzerBauman] (February 14, 2018). "I'm in PA-18 to endorse Conor Lamb on behalf of Social Security Works in the special election for Congress to be held 3/13. TURN YOUR ATTENTION HERE, EVERYBODY! IT'S THE NEXT BIG ONE!!!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  108. Conor Lamb. "2018 Steel City Stonewall Democrats Endorsement Questionnaire" (PDF). Steel City Stonewall Democrats. Retrieved February 27, 2018. I am grateful to have your support and endorsement in my current race for the PA-18 special election, and hope to have it going forward into the primary and general elections so that we can continue to work as allies in the fight for full equality.
  109. VoteVets [@VoteVets] (December 6, 2017). "VoteVets PAC is today endorsing Marine veteran @ConorLambPA for Congress in Pennsylvania's 18th District. "Conor is someone who will always be thinking of those who need a voice, and how he can best represent them," said Jon Soltz, Iraq War vet and Chairman of VoteVets. #PApol" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  110. Daily Kos Elections [@DKElections] (January 18, 2018). "Daily Kos is proud to endorse @ConorLambPA in the #PA18 special election, which has Republicans so worried that Donald Trump is coming to town today" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  111. "EDITORIAL In 18th district election, Lamb is the best choice". Observer-Reporter. March 11, 2018.
  112. "Allegheny County's District 18 special election results are finally official". The Incline. Retrieved April 3, 2018.
  113. Chamberlain, Samuel (March 14, 2018). "Democrat Lamb declares victory in Pa. special election determined too close to call". Fox News.
  114. Kornacki, Steve [@SteveKornacki] (March 14, 2018). "We have the Washington numbers and NBC is calling Conor Lamb the apparent winner in PA-18" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  115. Drum, Kevin (March 14, 2018). "Conor Lamb officially wins Pennsylvania election". Mother Jones.
  116. "It's official: Democrat Conor Lamb wins Pennsylvania special election in major upset". Vox. Retrieved March 14, 2018.
  117. Schneider, Elena (March 14, 2018). "Republicans prepare for recount in Pennsylvania special election". Politico. Retrieved March 14, 2018.
  118. Marc Levy (March 21, 2018). "Republican Rick Saccone Concedes to Democrat Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania Race". NBC Philadelphia. Retrieved March 22, 2018.
  119. Julian Routh (April 2, 2018). "Finally official: Conor Lamb certified winner of congressional seat". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved April 3, 2018.
  120. Election results from CNN
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