2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

The 2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
November 3, 2020
Turnout70.93%[1]
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 20 0
Popular vote 3,458,229 3,377,674
Percentage 50.01% 48.84%
County results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

 Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Pennsylvania
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
Class One
Class Three
U.S. House of Representatives
State government
Governor
Lieutenant Governor
Attorney General
Auditor General
State Treasurer
State Senate
State House Elections
Elections by year
State elections
Philadelphia
Mayoral elections
City Council elections
Other municipal elections
Pittsburgh
Mayors
Lancaster
Mayors
Allentown
Mayors
Harrisburg
Mayors

Although Trump had won the state in 2016 by a narrow margin of 0.72%, Biden was able to reclaim the state, winning it by 1.17%. Because of the way the state counted in-person ballots first, Trump started with a wide lead on election night. However, over the next few days, Biden greatly closed the margin due to outstanding votes from Democratic-leaning areas, most notably Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, as well as mail-in ballots from all parts of the state which strongly favored him. On the morning of November 6, election-calling organization Decision Desk HQ forecast that Biden had won Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes, and with them the election.[4] The following morning, November 7, during a Trump campaign press conference outside a Philadelphia landscaping business,[5] nearly all major news organizations followed suit and called Pennsylvania for Biden, proclaiming him President-elect.[6]

After worse than expected results for Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections, Pennsylvania had been expected to have a close result again in the 2020 election.[7] Throughout the campaign however, polls generally showed a Biden lead. Prior to election day 14 of the 15 news organizations considered that Pennsylvania was leaning towards Biden.

State Republicans sought to require that only mail-in ballots received by Election Day be counted. The Commonwealth's Supreme Court rejected their demands, deciding that, due to probable delays due to the ongoing coronavirus and U.S. Postal Service crises, ballots received up to three days after Election Day would also be counted.[8] Republicans then appealed the decision to the U.S. Supreme Court. Supreme Court justices produced a 4–4 tie (as the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg's seat remained vacant when the ruling was issued), with Chief Justice John Roberts siding with the three liberal justices, allowing the state supreme court decision to stand.[8]

One key to Biden's success in the state was his improvement on Hillary Clinton's margins in the large Philadelphia-area suburban counties: he won Bucks by 3.60% more than Clinton did, Delaware by 4.38% more, Montgomery by 4.80% more, and Chester—which Mitt Romney had narrowly won just eight years prior—by 6.60% more. At the same time, he reclaimed two of the three large industrial counties which had voted Democratic for at least six consecutive elections before Trump flipped them in 2016: Erie and Northampton. While Trump prevailed in the third, Luzerne County, he did so by a reduced margin with respect to 2016; and Biden increased the margin of victory in his birth county, Lackawanna County, which Trump had nearly flipped in 2016. Biden even halted the four-election Democratic slide in formerly traditionally Democratic Westmoreland County, where, before 2020, Al Gore had been the last Democrat to improve on the previous nominee's vote share (and which had given Trump his margin in the state in 2016). However, Biden's vote share in Philadelphia County actually declined slightly compared to Hillary Clinton's, although he still outperformed either Al Gore in 2000 or John Kerry in 2004 in the county.

Pennsylvania is tied for the longest perfect streak with Michigan and Wisconsin; none of the three have backed the losing candidate since after 2004, when all three backed Democratic nominee John Kerry--albeit narrowly--but incumbent President George W. Bush was re-elected. Pennsylvania weighed in for this election as 3.28% more Republican than the national average. This is the second consecutive presidential election in which Pennsylvania voted to the right of the nation; previously, it had not done so since 1948.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020, also originally joining several northeastern states in holding primaries on the same date, including Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York, and Rhode Island.[9] On March 26, Pennsylvania joined several other states in moving its primary to June 2 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[10]

Republican primary

Even though the Republican National Committee mailed Pennsylvania voters encouraging mail-in voting, describing it as a "convenient and secure” option, most Republicans expressed opposition to the prospect. Earlier, the Republican-controlled House blocked a proposal to mail every Pennsylvanian a mail-in ballot application. This was in response to President Trump's skepticism of the practice, expressing concern mail-in voting may result in voter fraud that would potentially benefit the Democratic Party.[11]

2020 Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary[12]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[13]
Donald Trump 1,053,616 92.1% 34
Bill Weld 69,427 6.1% 0
Rocky De La Fuente 20,456 1.8% 0
Total 1,143,499 100% 34

Trump was declared the winner in the Republican primary, and received all of the state's 34 pledged delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention (the state also has 54 unpledged delegates).[13]

Democratic primary
This section is an excerpt from 2020 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary[edit]
2020 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary[14]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[15]
Joe Biden 1,264,624 79.26% 151
Bernie Sanders (suspended) 287,834 18.04% 35
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 43,050 2.70% 0
Total 1,595,508 100% 186

Green Caucus

The Green Caucus was held during April 2020 and was won by Howie Hawkins.[16]

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
Princeton Electoral Consortium[17] Safe D (flip) October 5, 2020
The Cook Political Report[18] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020
Inside Elections[19] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020
Politico[21] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020
RCP[22] Tossup October 5, 2020
Niskanen[23] Likely D (flip) October 5, 2020
CNN[24] Lean D (flip) October 23, 2020
The Economist[25] Likely D (flip) October 5, 2020
CBS News[26] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020
270towin[27] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020
ABC News[28] Likely D (flip) October 5, 2020
NPR[29] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020
NBC News[30] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020
538[31] Likely D (flip) October 5, 2020

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
270 to Win October 22 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 49.4% 45.7% 4.9% Biden +3.7
Real Clear Politics October 29 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 48.7% 47.5% 3.8% Biden +1.2
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 50.2% 45.6% 4.2% Biden +4.6
Average 49.4% 46.3% 4.3% Biden +3.1

2020 polls
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Howie
Hawkins
Green		 Other Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. Nov 1–2 499 (LV) ± 4.3% 49%[lower-alpha 3] 48% 1% - 0%[lower-alpha 4] 0%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2 6,045 (LV) ± 2% 47%[lower-alpha 5] 52% - - – –
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 31 – Nov 1 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47%[lower-alpha 6] 50% - - 1%[lower-alpha 7] –
Research Co. Oct 31 – Nov 1 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 46% 52% - - 2%[lower-alpha 8] 4%
AYTM/Aspiration Oct 30 – Nov 1 340 (LV) – 49% 51% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Oct 29 – Nov 1 699 (LV) ± 3.71% 46% 50% 2% - – 2%
Marist College/NBC Oct 29 – Nov 1 772 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 51% - - 1% 2%
Monmouth University Oct 28 – Nov 1 502(RV) ± 4.4% 45% 50% 1% - 0%[lower-alpha 9] 4%
502 (LV) 44%[lower-alpha 10] 51% - - – –
45%[lower-alpha 11] 50% - - – –
Swayable Oct 27 – Nov 1 1,107 (LV) ± 3.9% 48% 50% 2% - – –
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1 1,417 (LV) ± 2.6% 45% 52% 2% 0% 0%[lower-alpha 12] –
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 27 – Nov 1 673 (LV) ± 4.3% 45%[lower-alpha 13] 51% 1% 1% 2%[lower-alpha 14] –
44%[lower-alpha 15] 51% - - 3%[lower-alpha 16] 2%
46%[lower-alpha 17] 52% - - 2%[lower-alpha 18] –
Trafalgar Oct 30–31 1,062 (LV) ± 2.93% 48% 46% 2% - 1%[lower-alpha 19] 4%
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere[upper-alpha 1] Oct 30–31 879 (LV) ± 3% 48% 52% - - – –
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[upper-alpha 2] Oct 30–31 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48.7% 47.4% 1.3% - – 2.6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 26–31 1,862 (LV) ± 2.4% 43% 49% 2% - 0%[lower-alpha 20] 5%[lower-alpha 21]
Morning Consult Oct 22–31 2,686 (LV) ± 2% 43% 52% - - – –
Emerson College Oct 29–30 823 (LV) ± 3.3% 47%[lower-alpha 22] 52% - - 2%[lower-alpha 23] –
AtlasIntel Oct 29–30 672 (LV) ± 4% 50% 49% - - 2% –
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart Oct 25–30 998 (LV) – 42% 56% - - 2%[lower-alpha 24] –
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC[upper-alpha 3] Oct 28–29 1,012 (V) – 45% 52% - - – 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 26–29 2,125 (LV) – 45% 50% 1% - 1% 3%
Harvard-Harris/The Hill Oct 26–29 901 (LV) – 46% 51% - - – 3%
ABC/Washington Post Oct 24–29 824 (LV) ± 4% 44% 51% 3% - 0%[lower-alpha 25] 1%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Oct 23–28 419 (LV) ± 5.5% 44% 49% - - 4%[lower-alpha 26] 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28 10,599 (LV) ± 1.5% 46% 52% - - – -
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 25–27 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45%[lower-alpha 13] 51% - - 2% 2%
44%[lower-alpha 27] 52% - - 2% 2%
47%[lower-alpha 28] 49% - - 2% 2%
Quinnipiac University Oct 23–27 1,324 (LV) ± 2.7% 44% 51% - - 1%[lower-alpha 29] 4%
Swayable Oct 23–26 491 (LV) ± 6% 46% 52% 2% - – –
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 23–26 1,145 (LV) ± 3% 45% 52% - - 2%[lower-alpha 30] 1%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 20–26 655 (LV) ± 4.4% 44%[lower-alpha 13] 51% 3% 0% 1%[lower-alpha 31] –
45%[lower-alpha 32] 50% - - 3%[lower-alpha 33] 2%
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[upper-alpha 2] Oct 25 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48.5% 45.5% 3.3% - – 2.8%
Trafalgar Group Oct 24–25 1,076 (LV) ± 2.91% 48% 48% 2% - 1%[lower-alpha 34] 1%
Wick Surveys Oct 24–25 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 47% - - – –
Franklin & Marshall College Oct 19–25 558 (LV) ± 5% 44% 50% 2% - 1%[lower-alpha 35] 3%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino
Decisions/North Star Opinion Research		 Oct 17–25 723 (RV) ± 3.64% 45% 50% - - 3%[lower-alpha 36] 2%
Gravis Marketing Oct 23 602 (LV) ± 4% 44% 51% - - – 5%
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC[upper-alpha 4] Oct 21–22 980 (V) – 46% 51% - - – 4%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins Oct 17–21 1,577 (A) 3% 46% 52% - - – 2%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison Oct 13–21 669 (LV) ± 4.45% 44% 52% - - 3%[lower-alpha 37] –
Citizen Data Oct 17–20 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 39% 44% 9% 0% 1% 7%
CNN/SSRS Oct 15–20 843 (LV) ± 4% 43% 53% 2% - 1%[lower-alpha 38] 1%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Oct 13–20 416 (LV) ± 5.5% 44% 51% - - 2%[lower-alpha 39] 4%
Morning Consult Oct 11–20 2,563 (LV) ± 1.9% 43% 52% - - – –
Fox News Oct 18–19 1,045 (LV) ± 3% 45% 50% 1% - 1%[lower-alpha 40] 2%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 18–19 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 50% - - 2%[lower-alpha 41] 3%
Quinnipiac University Oct 16–19 1,241 (LV) ± 2.8% 43% 51% - - 1%[lower-alpha 42] 5%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 16–19 574 (LV)[lower-alpha 43] – 47% 49% - - – –
Suffolk University/USA Today Oct 15–19 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 49% 1% - 4%[lower-alpha 44] 4%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 13–19 653 (LV) ± 4.4% 45%[lower-alpha 13] 49% 2% 0% 3%[lower-alpha 45] –
45%[lower-alpha 46] 49% - - 3%[lower-alpha 47] 4%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5] Oct 13–15 1,041 (LV) ± 2.96% 46% 48% 3% - 2%[lower-alpha 48] 2%
HarrisX/The Hill Oct 12–15 1,289 (LV) – 46% 51% - - – –
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[upper-alpha 2] Oct 12–13 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 46% 2% - – 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 10–13 1,289 (LV) – 43%[lower-alpha 43] 51% 1% 0% – –
Trafalgar Group Oct 10–12 1,034 (LV) ± 2.97% 45% 47% 3% - 3%[lower-alpha 49] 2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 7–12 800 (LV) – 43%[lower-alpha 13] 49% 1% – 1% 6%
42%[lower-alpha 50] 50% 1% – 1% 6%
45%[lower-alpha 51] 47% 1% – 1% 6%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[upper-alpha 6] Oct 8–11 600 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 52% - - 2%[lower-alpha 52] 1%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 6–11 622 (LV) ± 4.5% 45%[lower-alpha 13] 51% 1% 0% 2%[lower-alpha 53] –
44%[lower-alpha 54] 51% - - 1%[lower-alpha 55] 4%
Morning Consult Oct 2–11 2,610 (LV) ± 1.9% 44% 52% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 9–10 1,145 (LV) – 44%[lower-alpha 43] 49% 1% - – –
Whitman Insight Strategies Oct 5–9 517 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 51% - - 1%[lower-alpha 56] 3%
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 30 – Oct 8 1,140 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 50% 1% 0% 0%[lower-alpha 57] 4%
YouGov/CCES Sep 29 – Oct 7 2,703 (LV) – 44% 52% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 4–6 927 (LV) ± 3.22% 42% 49% 1% - 1%[lower-alpha 58] 7%
Emerson College Oct 4–5 688 (LV) ± 3.7% 47%[lower-alpha 59] 51% - - 2%[lower-alpha 60] –
Quinnipiac University Oct 1–5 1,211 (LV) ± 2.8% 41% 54% - - 1%[lower-alpha 61] 3%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 29 – Oct 5 605 (LV) ± 4.5% 45% 50% - - 2%[lower-alpha 62] 3%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 2–4 468 (LV) – 46% 50% - - – –
Monmouth University Sep 30 – Oct 4 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 54% 1% - 0%[lower-alpha 63] 2%
500 (LV) 43%[lower-alpha 64] 54% - - – –
45%[lower-alpha 65] 53% - - – –
YouGov/CBS Sep 30 – Oct 2 1,287 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 51% - - 2%[lower-alpha 66] 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 30 – Oct 2 706 (LV) ± 4.1% 42% 49% 3% - 0%[lower-alpha 67] 5%[lower-alpha 68]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30 4,613 (LV) – 46% 52% - - – 2%
ABC News/Washington Post Sep 21–26 567 (LV) ± 5.0% 45% 54% - - 0%[lower-alpha 69] 1%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 25–27 711 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 49% 2% - 0%[lower-alpha 70] 8%[lower-alpha 71]
TIPP/The Federalist Sep 24–26 774 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 50% - - 1%[lower-alpha 72] 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 23–25 1,015 (LV) ± 3.08% 44% 50% 0% – 1%[lower-alpha 73] 5%
Fox News Sep 20–23 856 (LV) ± 3% 44% 51% 2% – 1%[lower-alpha 74] 2%
910 (RV) ± 3% 43% 51% 2% – 2%[lower-alpha 75] 3%
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 9–22 1,012 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 47% 2% 0% 1%[lower-alpha 76] 5%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5] Sep 18–21 1,006 (LV) ± 2.99% 46% 48% 1% 1% 2%[lower-alpha 77] 2%
YouGov/UW-Madison Elections Research
Center/Wisconsin State Journal		 Sep 10–21 642 (LV) – 45% 49% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Sep 18–20 579 (LV) – 45% 49% - - – –
Franklin & Marshall College Sep 14–20 480 (LV) ± 7.8% 42% 48% - - – –
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[upper-alpha 7] Sep 17–19 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 42% 53% - - – –
CPEC[upper-alpha 8] Sep 15–17 830 (LV) ± 2.3% 45% 50% - - 1%[lower-alpha 78] 4%
Trafalgar Group (R) Sep 15–17 1,006 (LV) ± 2.99% 45% 47% 2% 1% 2%[lower-alpha 79] 2%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 11–16 611 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 49% - - 2%[lower-alpha 80] 4%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[upper-alpha 6] Sep 11–15 704 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 52% - - 1%[lower-alpha 81] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 12–14 1,036 (LV) ± 3.04% 44% 49% 1% 1% 0%[lower-alpha 82] 5%
Climate Nexus Sep 8–11 659 (RV) ± 4% 43% 48% - - 3%[lower-alpha 83] 6%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP Aug 28 – Sep 8 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 46% 49% - - 1%[lower-alpha 84] 4%
Marist College/NBC News Aug 31 – Sep 7 771 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 53% - - 1% 2%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7 2,227 (LV) ± (2%-4%) 45%[lower-alpha 85] 50% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Sep 4–6 829 (LV) – 46% 50% - - 4%[lower-alpha 86] –
TargetSmart Sep 3–6 835 (LV) ± 3.4% 44% 51% - - 3% 3%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. Aug 26 – Sep 4 498 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 44% - - 6%[lower-alpha 87] 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Aug 30 – Sep 3 1,053 (LV) ± 3.02% 43% 48% 1% 1% 1%[lower-alpha 88] 7%
Quinnipiac Aug 28 – Sep 1 1,235 (LV) ± 3% 44% 52% - - 1%[lower-alpha 89] 3%
ALG Research/Progressive Policy Institute[upper-alpha 9] Aug 26 – Sep 1 500 (LV) – 44% 50% - - – –
Monmouth University Aug 28–31 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 45% 49% 2% 0% 1%[lower-alpha 90] 4%
400 (LV) 46%[lower-alpha 91] 49% - - 2% 3%
47%[lower-alpha 92] 48% - - 2% 3%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5] Aug 26–31 600 (LV) – 45% 51% - - – 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31 3,531 (LV) – 45% 53% - - – 2%
Morning Consult Aug 21–30 2,158 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 45% 49% - - – –
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Aug 25–27 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 48%[lower-alpha 93] 48% - - 4%[lower-alpha 94] –
GQR Research/Unite the Country PAC[upper-alpha 10] Aug 20–24 971 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 52% - - – 5%
Franklin & Marshall College Aug 17–24 681 (RV) ± 5.2% 42%[lower-alpha 95] 50% - - 3%[lower-alpha 96] 7%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 21–23 984 (LV) – 46% 49% - - – –
Global Strategy Group/Climate Power 2020
/League of Conservation Voters/Sierra Club[upper-alpha 11]		 Aug 13–19 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 42%[lower-alpha 13] 50% 2% 1% – 5%
43%[lower-alpha 97] 53% - - – 4%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Aug 16–17 1,006 (LV) ± 3.1% 41% 48% 1% 1% 1%[lower-alpha 98] 8%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[upper-alpha 6] Aug 13–17 617 (RV) – 44% 51% - - 3%[lower-alpha 99] 1%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Aug 11–17 416 (LV) ± 5.5% 45% 49% - - 3%[lower-alpha 100] 3%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16 1,777 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 44% 50% - - – –
Emerson College Aug 8–10 843 (LV) ± 3.8% 47%[lower-alpha 101] 53% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Aug 7–9 456 (RV) – 44% 48% - - – –
YouGov/CBS Aug 4–7 1,211 (LV) ± 3.7% 43% 49% - - 3%[lower-alpha 102] 5%
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[upper-alpha 12] Aug 2–4 400 (LV) ± 4.7% 46% 50% - - – 4%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison Jul 27 – Aug 6 742 (RV) ± 4.9% 41% 50% - - 2%[lower-alpha 103] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31 4,208 (LV) – 48% 50% - - – 2%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 24–26 382 (LV) – 46% 48% - - – –
Franklin & Marshall College Jul 20–26 667 (RV) ± 5.5% 41% 50% - - 2%[lower-alpha 104] 6%
Morning Consult Jul 17–26 2,092 (LV) ± 2.1% 42% 50% - - – –
Gravis Marketing Jul 22–24 1,006 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 48% - - – 8%
Zogby Analytics Jul 21–23 809 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 44% 4% 2% - 8%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5] Jul 17–22 600 (LV) – 45% 51% - - – 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–21 1,016 (LV) – 41% 48% 1% 0% 2%[lower-alpha 105] 8%
Fox News Jul 18–20 793 (RV) ± 3.5% 39% 50% - - 5%[lower-alpha 106] 6%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/American Greatness PAC[upper-alpha 2] Jul 15–16 750 (LV) ± 4% 46% 51% - - 2%[lower-alpha 107] 1%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[upper-alpha 13] Jul 11–16 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 47% - - – 5%
Monmouth University Jul 9–13 401 (RV) ± 4.9% 40% 53% - - 3%[lower-alpha 108] 4%
401 (LV) 42%[lower-alpha 109] 52% - - 3% 3%
44%[lower-alpha 110] 51% - - 2% 3%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12 743 (LV) – 42% 50% - - – –
Trafalgar Group Jun 29 – Jul 2 1,062 (LV) ± 2.92% 43% 48% - - 6%[lower-alpha 111] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30 2,184 (LV) – 48% 50% - - – 2%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28 760 (LV)[lower-alpha 43] – 44% 50% - - – –
Susquehanna Polling/Fox 43 Jun 15–23 715 (LV) – 41% 46% - - 5% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jun 14–16 1,125 (LV) ± 2.92% 39% 49% 1% 1% 1%[lower-alpha 112] 9%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Jun 8–16 651 (RV) ± 4.2% 40% 50% - - 3%[lower-alpha 113] 6%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14 491 (LV)[lower-alpha 43] – 46% 49% - - 3%[lower-alpha 114] –
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5] Jun 8–11 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 54% - - – 4%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins Jun 6–11 1,221 (A) 3.6% 46% 49% - - – 5%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins May 30 – Jun 2 2,045 (A) 2.4% 46% 49% - - – 5%
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31 579 (LV)[lower-alpha 43] – 50% 46% - - 2% 2%
Morning Consult May 17–26 2,120 (LV) – 44%[lower-alpha 43] 48% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14 963 (LV) ± 3.2% 39% 48% - - 2%[lower-alpha 115] 11%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5] May 9–13 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 46% - - – 4%
Harper Polling (R) Apr 21–26 644 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 49% - - – 8%
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 14] Apr 20–21 1,251 (RV) – 44% 51% - - – 5%
Fox News Apr 18–21 803 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 50% - - – –
Ipsos Apr 15–20 578 (RV) ± 5.0% 40% 46% - - – –
Suquehanna Research/Fox 43 Apr 14–20 693 (LV) – 42% 48% - - – –
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5] Apr 16–18 600 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 47% - - – 6%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins Apr 4–8 1,912 (A) 2.5% 47% 47% - - – 6%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25 973 (RV) ± 3.9% 47% 45% - - – 9%
Change Research Mar 21–23 510 (LV) – 50% 47% - - – 4%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5] Mar 19–21 600 (RV) – 47% 45% - - – –
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins Mar 14–18 1,589 (A) 2.7% 48% 46% - - – 6%
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6–8 725 (RV) – 40% 46% - - 5%[lower-alpha 116] 8%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 5–7 533 (RV) ± 5.3% 45% 44% - - – –
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins Feb 27 – Mar 3 2,462 (A) 2.2% 48% 46% - - – 7%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20 424 (RV) ± 5.5% 47% 47% - - 2% 4%
YouGov Feb 11–20 1,171 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% - - – –
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18 849 (RV) ± 3.4% 42% 50% - - 6%[lower-alpha 117] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18 500 (RV) – 42% 47% - - – 11%

2017–2019 polls
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Other Undecided
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 41% 8%[lower-alpha 118] 6%[lower-alpha 119]
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Nov 4–9, 2019 410 (RV) ± 6.0% 43% 52% 4% 2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–25, 2019 661 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 46% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 527 (LV) ± 4.2% 41% 45% 14% –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 565 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 43% 15% –
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 (RV) ± 4.2% 42% 53% 1% 3%
WPA Intelligence Apr 27–30, 2019 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 45% 46% – 8%
Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 (RV) ± 3.4% 45% 55% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 632 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 50% 4% –

Former candidates and hypothetical polling
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Michael
Bloomberg (D)		 Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 48% 45% 2% 5%
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 42% 48% 6%[lower-alpha 120] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 39% 48% – 13%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 41% 9%[lower-alpha 121] 5%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 46% 45% 3% 5%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 40% 46% – 14%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,171 (RV) ±4.0% 44% 44% – –
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 43% 47% 8%[lower-alpha 122] 2%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 40% 7%[lower-alpha 123] 7%[lower-alpha 124]
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 565 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 32% 23% –
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 (RV) ± 4.2% 44% 45% 4% 6%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Kamala
Harris (D)		 Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 (RV) ± 4.2% 45% 45% 3% 5%
Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 51% – –

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Amy
Klobuchar (D)		 Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 45% 44% 3% 8%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,171 (RV) ±4.0% 43% 43% – –
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 42% 49% 6%[lower-alpha 125] 4%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Beto
O'Rourke (D)		 Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 (RV) ± 4.2% 46% 44% 4% 5%
Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 51% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 632 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 40% 8% –

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25, 2020 973 (RV) ± 3.9% 48% 42% – 10%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5] Mar 19–21, 2020 600 (RV) – 49% 43% – –
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6–8, 2020 725 (RV) – 41% 43% 6%[lower-alpha 126] 10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 5–7, 2020 533 (RV) ± 5.3 % 46% 42% – –
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 46% 49% 3% 3%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,171 (RV) ±4.0% 45% 47% – –
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 44% 48% 5%[lower-alpha 127] 1%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 43% 45% – 12%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 37% 8%[lower-alpha 128] 6%[lower-alpha 129]
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Nov 4–9, 2019 410 (RV) ± 6.0% 45% 50% 4% 1%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019 661 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 44% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 527 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 44% 14% –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 565 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 41% 15% –
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 (RV) ± 4.2% 43% 50% 2% 3%
Tulchin Research (D)[upper-alpha 15] Apr 14–18, 2019 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 51% – –
Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 (RV) ± 3.4% 45% 55% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 632 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 44% 8% –

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 47% 47% 4% 3%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,171 (RV) ±4.0% 45% 45% – –
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 44% 47% 8%[lower-alpha 130] 2%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 40% 8%[lower-alpha 131] 5%[lower-alpha 132]
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Nov 4–9, 2019 410 (RV) ± 6.0% 45% 50% 4% 1%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019 661 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 44% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 527 (LV) ± 4.2% 41% 43% 16% –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 565 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 34% 21% –
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 (RV) ± 4.2% 44% 47% 3% 4%
Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 (RV) ± 3.4% 48% 52% – –
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 813 (LV) ± 3.4% 38% 46% – 16%
Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Democrat (D)		 Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 48.6%[lower-alpha 133] 49.2% 2.1%[lower-alpha 134]
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 38% 51% 11%
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Jan 8–20, 2020 1,037 (RV) ± 3.2% 39.7%[lower-alpha 135] 49.5% 10.7%
KFF/Cook Political Report Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019 752 (RV) ± 4% 29% 40% 22%

Donald Trump vs. Generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Opponent		 Undecided
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Oct 23–28, 2020 419 (LV) ± 5.5% 42% 54% 4%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Oct 13–20, 2020 416 (LV) ± 5.5% 44% 51% 5%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Aug 11–17, 2020 416 (LV) ± 5.5% 44% 53% 3%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5% 42% 54% 4%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Nov 4–9, 2019 410 (RV) ± 6.0% 42% 57% 2%
F&M/PoliticsPA Mar 18–24, 2019 540 (RV) ± 5.5% 36% 61%[lower-alpha 136] 4%

Results

9,098,998[32] residents registered to vote by the voter registration deadline on October 15, which had been extended from its original date on October 13 by court order.

2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania[33][34][lower-alpha 137]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		3,458,229 50.01% +2.55%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence		 3,377,674 48.84% +0.66%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 79,380 1.15% -1.23%
Total votes 6,915,283 100.00%

Results by county
County Joe Biden

Democratic

 Donald Trump

Republican

 Jo Jorgensen

Libertarian

 Margin Total votes
# % # % # % # %
Adams 18,207 32.20% 37,523 66.37% 810 1.43% -19,316 -34.16% 56,540
Allegheny 429,065 59.61% 282,324 39.23% 8,344 1.16% 147,846 20.48% 722,033
Armstrong 8,457 23.25% 27,489 75.58% 424 1.17% -19,032 -52.33% 36,370
Beaver 38,122 40.50% 54,759 58.18% 1,241 1.32% -16,637 -17.68% 94,122
Bedford 4,367 15.84% 23,025 83.50% 182 0.66% -18,658 -67.67% 27,574
Berks 92,895 45.20% 109,736 53.39% 2,909 1.42% -16,841 -8.19% 205,540
Blair 17,636 27.73% 45,306 71.24% 653 1.03% -27,670 -43.51% 63,595
Bradford 8,046 26.68% 21,600 71.62% 513 1.70% -13,554 -44.94% 30,159
Bucks 204,712 51.66% 187,367 47.29% 4,155 1.05% 17,345 4.38% 396,234
Butler 37,508 33.10% 74,359 65.63% 1,438 1.27% -36,851 -32.52% 113,305
Cambria 21,730 30.79% 48,085 68.13% 759 1.08% -26,355 -37.34% 70,574
Cameron 634 26.05% 1,771 72.76% 29 1.19% -1,137 -46.71% 2,434
Carbon 11,212 33.34% 21,984 65.37% 433 1.29% -10,772 -32.03% 33,629
Centre 40,055 51.69% 36,372 46.94% 1,066 1.38% 3,683 4.75% 77,493
Chester 182,372 57.99% 128,565 40.88% 3,565 1.13% 53,807 17.11% 314,502
Clarion 4,678 24.00% 14,578 74.79% 237 1.22% -9,900 -50.79% 19,493
Clearfield 9,673 24.54% 29,203 74.08% 546 1.39% -19,530 -49.54% 39,422
Clinton 5,502 31.22% 11,902 67.53% 221 1.25% -6,400 -36.31% 17,625
Columbia 10,532 33.79% 20,098 64.48% 541 1.74% -9,566 -30.69% 31,171
Crawford 12,924 30.77% 28,559 67.99% 521 1.24% -15,635 -37.22% 42,004
Cumberland 62,245 43.96% 77,212 54.53% 2,138 1.51% -14,967 -10.57% 141,595
Dauphin 78,983 53.60% 66,408 45.06% 1,977 1.34% 12,575 8.53% 147,368
Delaware 206,423 62.95% 118,532 36.15% 2,976 0.91% 87,891 26.80% 327,931
Elk 4,522 26.75% 12,140 71.81% 244 1.44% -7,618 -45.06% 16,906
Erie 68,286 49.81% 66,869 48.78% 1,928 1.41% 1,417 1.03% 137,083
Fayette 20,444 32.90% 41,227 66.35% 468 0.75% -20,783 -33.45% 62,139
Forest 728 27.51% 1,882 71.13% 36 1.36% -1,154 -43.61% 2,646
Franklin 22,422 27.76% 57,245 70.86% 1,116 1.38% -34,823 -43.11% 80,783
Fulton 1,085 13.60% 6,824 85.55% 68 0.85% -5,739 -71.94% 7,977
Greene 4,911 27.79% 12,579 71.19% 179 1.01% -7,668 -43.40% 17,669
Huntingdon 5,445 23.89% 17,061 74.86% 286 1.25% -11,616 -50.97% 22,792
Indiana 12,634 30.67% 28,089 68.18% 475 1.15% -15,455 -37.51% 41,198
Jefferson 4,527 19.83% 17,960 78.69% 337 1.48% -13,433 -58.85% 22,824
Juniata 2,253 18.71% 9,649 80.12% 141 1.17% -7,396 -61.41% 12,043
Lackawanna 61,991 53.71% 52,334 45.35% 1,085 0.94% 9,657 8.37% 115,410
Lancaster 115,847 41.34% 160,209 57.17% 4,183 1.49% -44,362 -15.83% 280,239
Lawrence 15,978 34.68% 29,597 64.24% 501 1.09% -13,619 -29.56% 46,076
Lebanon 23,932 33.40% 46,731 65.22% 989 1.38% -22,799 -31.82% 71,652
Lehigh 98,288 53.21% 84,259 45.62% 2,166 1.17% 14,029 7.60% 184,713
Luzerne 64,873 42.31% 86,929 56.70% 1,519 0.99% -22,056 -14.39% 153,321
Lycoming 16,971 28.64% 41,462 69.97% 821 1.39% -24,491 -41.33% 59,254
McKean 5,098 26.19% 14,083 72.35% 285 1.46% -8,985 -46.16% 19,466
Mercer 21,067 36.35% 36,143 62.36% 744 1.28% -15,076 -26.01% 57,954
Mifflin 4,603 21.41% 16,670 77.53% 229 1.07% -12,067 -56.12% 21,502
Monroe 44,060 52.56% 38,726 46.20% 1,043 1.24% 5,334 6.36% 83,829
Montgomery 319,511 62.63% 185,460 36.35% 5,186 1.02% 134,051 26.28% 510,157
Montour 3,771 38.59% 5,844 59.81% 156 1.60% -2,073 -21.22% 9,771
Northampton 85,087 49.78% 83,854 49.05% 2,001 1.17% 1,233 0.72% 170,942
Northumberland 12,677 29.98% 28,952 68.47% 654 1.55% -16,275 -38.49% 42,283
Perry 5,950 24.14% 18,293 74.20% 409 1.66% -12,343 -50.07% 24,652
Philadelphia 603,790 81.44% 132,740 17.90% 4,847 0.65% 471,050 63.54% 741,377
Pike 13,019 39.99% 19,213 59.02% 322 0.99% -6,194 -19.03% 32,554
Potter 1,726 19.04% 7,239 79.87% 99 1.09% -5,513 -60.82% 9,064
Schuylkill 20,727 29.36% 48,871 69.22% 1,005 1.42% -28,144 -39.86% 70,603
Snyder 4,910 25.65% 13,983 73.06% 247 1.29% -9,073 -47.40% 19,140
Somerset 8,654 21.35% 31,466 77.61% 423 1.04% -22,812 -56.27% 40,543
Sullivan 921 25.62% 2,619 72.85% 55 1.53% -1,698 -47.23% 3,595
Susquehanna 6,236 28.67% 15,207 69.91% 309 1.42% -8,971 -41.24% 21,752
Tioga 4,955 23.51% 15,742 74.70% 378 1.79% -10,787 -51.18% 21,075
Union 7,475 37.16% 12,356 61.43% 284 1.41% -4,881 -24.27% 20,115
Venango 7,585 28.59% 18,569 70.00% 374 1.41% -10,984 -41.41% 26,528
Warren 6,066 29.38% 14,237 68.94% 347 1.68% -8,171 -39.57% 20,650
Washington 45,088 38.06% 72,080 60.84% 1,310 1.11% -26,992 -22.78% 118,478
Wayne 9,191 32.72% 18,637 66.35% 261 0.93% -9,446 -33.63% 28,089
Westmoreland 72,129 35.24% 130,218 63.62% 2,350 1.15% -58,089 -28.38% 204,697
Wyoming 4,704 31.66% 9,936 66.87% 218 1.47% -5,232 -35.21% 14,858
York 88,114 36.95% 146,733 61.53% 3,624 1.52% -58,619 -24.58% 238,471
Totals 3,458,229 50.01% 3,377,674 48.84% 79,380 1.15% 81,660 1.18% 6,917,583

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
People waiting in line to vote in Hatboro

Analysis

Throughout the year, Pennsylvania was regarded as the most important (or likely tipping-point) state in the entire election; Pennsylvania had 20 electoral votes, and it was one of the closest states of the 2016 presidential election. Both candidates aggressively played for the state; Trump needed the state as it represented his narrow path to re-election, while Biden needed the state to rebuild the blue wall, which Trump broke by carrying the northern industrial states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.[35]

Historically, Pennsylvania has usually been a competitive state. During the Second Party System, it voted for the winner of every election. From the Civil War on, it has generally had a partisan lean; during the Third and Fourth Party Systems, Pennsylvania was a classic Yankee Republican state. When Franklin Roosevelt carried it in 1936, he became the first Democrat in eighty years to do so. Between 1936 and 1988, neither major party carried Pennsylvania for more than three straight presidential elections, although between 1952 and 1988, it voted Democratic in every close election (1960, 1968, 1976), and consistently voted more Democratic than the nation. Starting in 1992, Pennsylvania became part of the blue wall--the group of states that voted Democratic for six straight elections from 1992 through 2012. In 2016, it was one of three blue wall states that Trump won on his way to an upset victory.

Biden's winning margin in Pennsylvania was somewhat smaller than that of other Democrats who had carried the state in recent close elections. His margin of 1.2% was less than a third that of Al Gore's 4.2% margin in 2000, and less than a fourth that of Barack Obama's 5.4% margin in 2012. It was closer to John Kerry's margin of 2.5% in 2004, although, because Kerry was losing the overall national popular vote by 2.5%, his win made Pennsylvania 5% bluer than the country in 2004. In contrast, Pennsylvania remained redder than the country in 2020 even as Biden won it, by about 3.3%. As in Michigan and Wisconsin, Biden ran behind Barack Obama's performances in 2008 and 2012, though he received more votes total in the state this cycle due to record-breaking turnout.

As for Trump, he easily set the record for total number of votes for a Republican candidate in Pennsylvania history (as with Biden, largely due to record-breaking turnout). With 48.84% of the vote, he did slightly outpace both his own vote share in 2016 (48.18%) and George W. Bush's in 2004 (48.42%), the latter of which had previously stood as the highest Republican vote share in the state since 1988.

Joe Biden's strongest base of support was the Philadelphia metro area. In the city of Philadelphia itself, Biden won by 63.4%, a weaker win than Hillary Clinton's 66.9% margin in the city in 2016, but still better than Kerry's 61.1% margin in 2004 or Gore's 62.0% margin in 2000.[36] Donald Trump improved his vote share in Philadelphia by 2.5%,[37] and, as of the counting on November 8, held a majority of the vote in the 26th, 58th, and 66th wards. However, Biden improved on Hillary Clinton dramatically in the Main Line counties of Montgomery and Chester, as well as, to a lesser extent, Delaware, increasing the Democratic vote share in these counties by 4.2%, 5.9%, and 3.5%, respectively, and winning them all by double digits. Before 1992, all three had been Republican strongholds in the state, and Chester had been considered a swing county as recently as 2012, when Romney narrowly carried it, but all three have drifted towards the Democratic column, as they tend to be socially liberal.[38]

Biden also performed strongly in Pennsylvania's other urban, suburban, and exurban areas. Crucially, he carried Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) by 20.4%, the widest margin any nominee had won the county by since 1992.[39] Centre and Dauphin both remained in the Democratic column; in the past, these counties voted Republican, though Centre County is home to Pennsylvania State University, while Dauphin County has followed the trend of urban areas becoming more Democratic. Biden also narrowly reclaimed two counties anchored by industrial cities which had long voted Democratic before Trump flipped them in 2016, Northampton (Bethlehem) and Erie (Erie), and improved on Hillary Clinton's margin in his birth county of Lackawanna County (Scranton), a county Hillary Clinton had barely kept in the Democratic column in 2016. In suburban Cumberland County, adjacent to Harrisburg, Biden shaved Trump's margin from 17.8% to 10.5%.[40] Northampton and Erie were the only counties to flip from one party to the other; Northampton has voted for the winner of the state in every election from 1952 on.

Trump maintained much of his momentum throughout rural and industrial Pennsylvania from four years earlier, with convincing victories in counties that were once competitive or even Democratic-leaning. He kept Luzerne County (Wilkes-Barre), which had voted Democratic six elections in a row before 2016 (and which had voted with the winner of the state from 1936 through 2016), in his column, although his margin in it was cut from 19.3% to 14.3%. Trump also won the former Democratic stronghold of Westmoreland County convincingly, although his margin in this county, crucial to his win in 2016,[41] declined.[42] Other previously competitive counties that Trump performed well in included Berks and Cambria, both of which voted for Obama in 2008. Trump further ran up the score in other conservative exurban[43] counties, most notably in Lancaster and Lebanon counties, though his margin shrank somewhat in both.

Trump won whites in the state by 15 points, although like in the rest of the country, there was a clear disparity between college-educated and non college-educated whites. Biden won whites with a college degree by 9 points, while Trump excelled with whites without a college degree, winning this group by 32 points. Additionally, there was a gender disparity with the white vote; Trump won white men by 15 points, but only carried white women by 3 points. Finally, there was an age gap; Biden won young voters by double-digit margins, whereas Trump performed strongly with middle-aged voters; senior citizens were more even, breaking slightly for Trump.[44]

Within minority blocs, Biden fared well, as he won black voters by 87 points, and won Latinos by 42 points. Three other critical voting blocs broke for Biden this cycle; he won independent voters by 8 points, moderates by 17 points, and first-time voters by 23 points.[44]

Aftermath

On November 24, 2020, the Secretary of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Kathy Boockvar, certified the results, and Governor Tom Wolf, in accordance with the law, signed the certificate of ascertainment for the Biden/Harris slate of electors for Biden and Harris and sent it to the Archivist of the United States.[45][46]

On November 25, 2020, the Pennsylvania Senate Majority (Republican) Policy committee held a public hearing regarding the counting of ballots in this election.[47] Trump planned to attend the meeting but he canceled the trip.[48]

After a group of Republican congressman filed a lawsuit to stop certification on November 22, Judge Patricia McCullough ruled to halt further state certifications pending a hearing. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled on November 28 to unanimously overturn Judge Patricia McCullough's ruling to halt certification.[49] Moreover, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court also dismissed with prejudice the requests of Representative Mike Kelly and other Republicans to either invalidate all 2.5 million mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania, or to invalidate all 6.9 million ballots in the state and have the state's Republican-controlled Legislature choose the presidential electors for the state.[50][51] The rationale for the decision was that the Republicans were challenging the law too late; they had been able to challenge the law since it became live on October 2019, but they only filed the lawsuit when the results of the November 2020 election were "becoming seemingly apparent". Hence, the Republicans had failed to act with "due diligence" in their handling of the case.[51][52] By the time of the court's decision, the Pennsylvania election results had been certified in Biden's favor.[53] The congressmen appealed to the US Supreme Court, but on December 8, 2020, the Supreme Court unanimously rejected the request in one sentence.[54][55]

Objection

On January 6, 2021, as Congress certified the Electoral College results confirming President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris' wins, there was an objection to Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes, brought forward by Representative Scott Perry of Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district and officially signed onto by Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri.[56] The objection failed 7-92 in the Senate, and 138-282 in the House.[57]

See also

Notes
Partisan clients
  1. Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
  2. The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  3. Climate Power 2020 was created by the League of Conservation Voters, which endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
  4. The American Bridge PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  5. The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  6. Rust Belt Rising is affiliated with the Democratic Party
  7. The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  8. CPEC campaigns exclusively for Democratic candidates
  9. The Progressive Policy Institute endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  10. Unite the Country PAC endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  11. The League of Conservation Voters and the Sierra Club endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  12. Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  13. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  14. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  15. Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign
Additional candidates
  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. Would not vote with 0%
  5. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  6. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. "Some other candidate" with 1%
  8. "Someone else" with 2%
  9. "Other candidate" and "No one" with 0%
  10. With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  11. With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  12. "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  13. Standard VI response
  14. West (B) with 2%; "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 0%
  15. If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  16. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  17. Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  18. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  19. "Someone else" with 1%
  20. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  21. Includes "Refused"
  22. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  23. "Someone else" with 2%
  24. "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
  25. "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  26. "Neither/other" with 4%
  27. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  28. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  29. "Someone else" with 1%
  30. "Someone else" with 2%
  31. "Some other candidate" with 1%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  32. If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  33. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  34. "Someone else" with 1%
  35. "Refused" with 1%; "Some other candidate" with 0%
  36. "Someone else" with 3%
  37. Includes Undecided
  38. "Other" with 1%; "None of these" with 0%
  39. "Neither/other" with 2%
  40. "Other" with 1%; would not vote with no voters
  41. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  42. "Someone else" with 1%
  43. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  44. "Refused" with 3%; "Others" with 1%
  45. "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  46. If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  47. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  48. "Someone else" with 2%
  49. "Someone else" with 3%
  50. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  51. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  52. "Someone else" with 2%
  53. "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 1%; West (B) with 0%
  54. If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  55. "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  56. "Someone else" with 1%
  57. "Another candidate" with 0%
  58. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  59. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  60. "Someone else" with 2%
  61. "Someone else" with 1%
  62. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  63. "Other candidate" and "No one" with 0%
  64. With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  65. With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  66. "Someone else/third party" with 2%
  67. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  68. Includes "Refused"
  69. "Neither" and "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  70. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  71. Includes "Refused"
  72. "Other" with 1%; "Prefer not to answer" with 0%
  73. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  74. "Other" with 1%; would not vote with no voters
  75. "Other" and would not vote with 1%
  76. "Another candidate" with 1%
  77. "Someone else" with 2%
  78. "Third party candidate" with 1%
  79. "Someone else" with 2%
  80. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  81. "Someone else" with 1%
  82. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
  83. "Neither candidate or other candidate" with 3%
  84. Would not vote with 1%
  85. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  86. "Other/not sure" with 4%
  87. "Other" and "Refused" with 3%
  88. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  89. "Someone else" with 1%
  90. "No one" with 1%; "Other candidate" with no voters
  91. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  92. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  93. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight; with voters who lean towards a given candidate
  94. "Some other candidate" with 4%
  95. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  96. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  97. If only Biden and Trump were candidates
  98. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  99. "Someone else" with 3%
  100. "Neither/other" with 3%
  101. Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  102. "Someone else/third party" with 3%
  103. "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  104. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  105. West (B) and "Another Third Party/Write-In" with 1%
  106. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 1%
  107. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  108. "Another candidate" with 3%; "No one" with 0%
  109. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  110. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  111. "Other party candidate" with 6%
  112. "other" with 1%
  113. "Another candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  114. "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
  115. "Third party/write-in" with 2%
  116. "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  117. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 5%
  118. A third party candidate with 6%; will not vote with 2%
  119. Includes "refused"
  120. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
  121. A third party candidate with 6%; will not vote with 3%
  122. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 6%
  123. A third party candidate with 4%; will not vote with 3%
  124. Includes "refused"
  125. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 5%
  126. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  127. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 4%
  128. A third party candidate with 5%; will not vote with 3%
  129. Includes "refused"
  130. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 6%
  131. A third party candidate with 5%; will not vote with 3%
  132. Includes "refused"
  133. Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  134. "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.4%; "unsure" with 0.7%
  135. Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  136. 61% "time for a change" as opposed to "Trump has done a good enough job to deserve re-election"
  137. Write-in votes have not yet been reported and are not reflected in total votes or percentages.

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