2016 United States presidential election in Kansas

The 2016 United States presidential election in Kansas was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Kansas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Kansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

2016 United States presidential election in Kansas

November 8, 2016
Turnout67.40%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 671,018 427,005
Percentage 56.16% 35.74%

County Results

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county

Trump carried the state with 56.16% of the vote, while Clinton received 35.74%.[2] Kansas was among the eleven states in which Clinton outperformed Barack Obama's margin of victory in 2012 (though her vote share percentage was lower than Obama's 38%), largely due to a significant shift towards Democrats in Johnson County.[3][4]

Background

The incumbent President of the United States, Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, was first elected president in the 2008 election, running with then-Senator Joe Biden of Delaware. Defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote,[5][6] Obama succeeded two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Obama and Biden were reelected in the 2012 presidential election, defeating former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 61.7% of electoral votes.[7] Although Barack Obama's approval rating in the RealClearPolitics poll tracking average remained between 40% and 50% for most of his second term, it has experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year.[8][9] Analyst Nate Cohn has noted that a strong approval rating for President Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate, and vice versa.[10]

Following his second term, President Obama is not eligible for another reelection. In October 2015, Obama's running-mate and two-term Vice President Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either.[11] With their term expiring on January 20, 2017, the electorate is asked to elect a new president, the 45th president and 48th vice president of the United States, respectively.

Political landscape in Kansas

The state of Kansas has given its electoral votes to the Republican ticket since 1968, and only once to the Democrats (1964) since 1940. At the time, all current statewide officials were Republicans, as were all four members of the state's U.S. House delegation. Mitt Romney defeated Barack Obama by a margin of 60% to 38% in 2012. A poll conducted by John Zogby found Clinton leading Trump by 7 points in June. In addition, an internal poll for Representative Kevin Yoder, a Republican from Kansas' 3rd congressional district, released an internal poll showing Clinton leading Trump by 6 points in his district. This district voted for Mitt Romney by a 10-point margin in 2012 and has a PVI of R+6. This result, coupled with Clinton's gains in national polls, caused Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball to move the Kansas race from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" on August 18.[12]

Primary elections

Democratic caucuses

Results of the Democratic caucuses by Congressional District
  Bernie Sanders
Kansas Democratic caucuses, March 5, 2016
Candidate District delegates Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 26,637 67.90% 23 0 23
Hillary Clinton 12,593 32.10% 10 4 14
Uncommitted N/A 0 0 0
Total 39,230 100% 33 4 37
Source: The Green Papers

Bernie Sanders visited Kansas during the primary season—while Hillary Clinton did not herself and instead sent her daughter Chelsea Clinton to hold a rally in Johnson County.

Republican caucuses

2016 Kansas Republican caucuses

March 5, 2016 (2016-03-05)
 
Candidate Ted Cruz Donald Trump Marco Rubio
Home state Texas New York Florida
Delegate count 24 9 6
Popular vote 37,512 18,443 13,295
Percentage 47.50% 23.35% 16.83%

 
Candidate John Kasich
Home state Ohio
Delegate count 1
Popular vote 8,741
Percentage 11.07%

Kansas results by congressional district
  Ted Cruz
Kansas Republican precinct caucuses, March 5, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Ted Cruz 37,512 47.50% 24 0 24
Donald Trump 18,443 23.35% 9 0 9
Marco Rubio 13,295 16.83% 6 0 6
John Kasich 8,741 11.07% 1 0 1
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 582 0.74% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 279 0.35% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 84 0.11% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 42 0.05% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 78,978 100.00% 40 0 40
Source: The Green Papers

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[13] Safe R November 6, 2016
CNN[14] Safe R November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[15] Safe R November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[16] Safe R November 8, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Safe R November 7, 2016
Fox News[18] Safe R November 7, 2016

Polling

Minor candidates

The following received write-in status:[19]

  • President: Andrew D. Basiago; Vice President: Karen D. Kinnison
  • President: Darrell L Castle; Vice President: Scott N. Bradley
  • President: "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente, Vice President: Michael Steinberg
  • President: Rocky Giordani; Vice President: Farley M Anderson
  • President: James A Hedges; Vice President: Bill V Bayes
  • President: Tom Hoefling; Vice President: Steve Schulin
  • President: Lynn Kahn; Vice President: Kathy Monahan
  • President: Gloria La Riva; Vice President: Eugene Puryer
  • President: Michael S. Levinson; Vice President: Perry E. Wharton, II
  • President: Michael A Maturen; Vice President: Juan A Munoz
  • President: Evan McMullin; Vice President: Nathan D Johnson
  • President: Monica G. Moorehead; Vice President: Lamont G. Lilly
  • President: Darryl Perry; Vice President: Conan Salada
  • President: Marshall R. Schoenke; Vice President: James C. Mitchell, Jr.
  • President: Joe C Schriner; Vice President: Joe Moreaux
  • President: Mike Smith; Vice President: Daniel White

Results

Candidate Popular vote Percentage
Donald Trump (Republican) 671,018 56.16%
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 427,005 35.74%
Gary Johnson (Libertarian) 55,406 4.64%
Jill Stein (Green) 23,506 1.97%
Evan McMullin (write-in) 6,520 0.55%
Darrell Castle (write-in) 646 0.05%
Mike Maturen (write-in) 214 0.02%
Tom Hoefling (write-in) 45 <0.01%
Gloria La Riva (write-in) 7 <0.01%
Mike Smith (write-in) 6 <0.01%
Rocky De La Fuente (write-in) 3 <0.01%
James Hedges (write-in) 3 <0.01%
Lynn Kahn (write-in) 2 <0.01%
Other write-ins 10,374 0.87%
Total 1,194,755 100.00%
Source: 2016 Presidential General Election Results - Kansas

By congressional district

Trump won 3 of the 4 congressional districts.[20]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 69% 24% Tim Huelskamp
Roger Marshall
2nd 56% 37% Lynn Jenkins
3rd 46% 47% Kevin Yoder
4th 60% 33% Mike Pompeo

By county

County Clinton% Clinton# Trump% Trump# Others% Others# Total
Allen26.27%1,43366.94%3,6516.78%3705,454
Anderson20.06%67272.69%2,4357.25%2433,350
Atchison30.25%1,98961.58%4,0498.17%5376,575
Barber12.70%28682.15%1,8505.15%1162,252
Barton17.91%1,83976.82%7,8885.27%54110,268
Bourbon21.93%1,33672.61%4,4245.47%3336,093
Brown21.38%86372.00%2,9066.62%2674,036
Butler23.77%6,57368.96%19,0737.27%2,01127,657
Chase23.08%31670.78%9696.14%841,369
Chautauqua13.30%19783.46%1,2363.24%481,481
Cherokee23.26%2,00571.72%6,1825.02%4338,620
Cheyenne12.86%18183.37%1,1733.77%531,407
Clark11.94%12082.09%8255.97%601,005
Clay17.72%67775.68%2,8916.60%2523,820
Cloud19.36%76174.27%2,9196.36%2503,930
Coffey17.87%72774.98%3,0507.15%2914,068
Comanche11.76%10282.47%7155.77%50867
Cowley28.14%3,55165.53%8,2706.34%80012,621
Crawford34.91%5,19957.91%8,6247.17%1,06814,891
Decatur12.26%17883.33%1,2104.41%641,452
Dickinson19.60%1,60973.43%6,0296.97%5728,210
Doniphan17.38%58777.15%2,6065.48%1853,378
Douglas62.28%31,19529.32%14,6888.39%4,20450,087
Edwards16.07%21278.62%1,0375.31%701,319
Elk12.71%16083.24%1,0484.05%511,259
Ellis22.95%2,74270.86%8,4666.19%73911,947
Ellsworth19.45%52173.50%1,9697.05%1892,679
Finney31.45%3,19562.51%6,3506.04%61410,159
Ford27.84%2,14966.26%5,1145.90%4557,718
Franklin26.37%2,89265.53%7,1858.10%88810,965
Geary36.27%2,72256.96%4,2746.77%5087,504
Gove11.09%14984.88%1,1404.02%541,343
Graham14.64%18879.83%1,0255.53%711,284
Grant18.46%44175.51%1,8046.03%1442,389
Gray12.73%26382.19%1,6985.08%1052,066
Greeley12.77%8382.15%5345.08%33650
Greenwood17.08%48576.06%2,1606.87%1952,840
Hamilton13.81%12180.48%7055.71%50876
Harper15.24%39377.42%1,9967.33%1892,578
Harvey33.98%5,06858.11%8,6687.91%1,18014,916
Haskell18.09%24576.81%1,0405.10%691,354
Hodgeman12.19%12484.07%8553.74%381,017
Jackson25.99%1,51267.70%3,9396.31%3675,818
Jefferson30.20%2,51862.53%5,2137.27%6068,337
Jewell12.05%18081.86%1,2236.09%911,494
Johnson44.76%129,85247.40%137,4907.84%22,748290,090
Kearny13.22%17481.69%1,0755.09%671,316
Kingman17.97%59975.88%2,5306.15%2053,334
Kiowa10.57%11483.41%9006.02%651,079
Labette28.26%2,29165.81%5,3355.93%4818,107
Lane12.17%10682.43%7185.40%47871
Leavenworth33.69%10,20958.21%17,6388.10%2,45430,301
Lincoln14.69%21580.53%1,1794.78%701,464
Linn16.63%73678.70%3,4844.68%2074,427
Logan10.98%14983.42%1,1325.60%761,357
Lyon37.83%4,64953.32%6,5528.85%1,08712,288
Marion21.41%1,20471.18%4,0037.41%4175,624
Marshall22.94%1,07270.77%3,3076.29%2944,673
McPherson25.32%3,22667.09%8,5497.59%96712,742
Meade12.21%21082.27%1,4155.52%951,720
Miami26.57%3,99166.59%10,0036.84%1,02815,022
Mitchell16.21%47778.45%2,3085.34%1572,942
Montgomery21.97%2,63772.30%8,6795.73%68812,004
Morris22.90%60169.36%1,8207.74%2032,624
Morton12.33%14783.47%9954.19%501,192
Nemaha14.15%72580.52%4,1245.33%2735,122
Neosho23.77%1,50170.18%4,4316.05%3826,314
Ness11.14%16284.46%1,2284.40%641,454
Norton12.58%28182.36%1,8405.06%1132,234
Osage24.88%1,75368.49%4,8266.63%4677,046
Osborne13.03%23381.66%1,4605.31%951,788
Ottawa14.61%42478.64%2,2836.75%1962,903
Pawnee21.76%57971.55%1,9046.69%1782,661
Phillips11.26%30083.82%2,2334.92%1312,664
Pottawatomie20.81%2,22571.19%7,6128.01%85610,693
Pratt20.07%77173.87%2,8386.06%2333,842
Rawlins11.07%16382.88%1,2206.05%891,472
Reno28.24%6,83764.08%15,5137.68%1,86024,210
Republic14.83%37580.03%2,0245.14%1302,529
Rice18.27%69574.58%2,8377.15%2723,804
Riley43.38%9,34146.94%10,1079.68%2,08421,532
Rooks11.37%27583.96%2,0314.67%1132,419
Rush15.50%23379.64%1,1974.86%731,503
Russell14.44%46180.61%2,5744.95%1583,193
Saline28.63%6,31762.67%13,8288.70%1,91922,064
Scott10.72%23684.70%1,8654.59%1012,202
Sedgwick36.88%69,62755.28%104,3537.84%14,803188,783
Seward32.31%1,62862.70%3,1594.98%2515,038
Shawnee44.99%33,92647.65%35,9347.35%5,54675,406
Sheridan09.24%12787.12%1,1973.64%501,374
Sherman13.28%34779.98%2,0896.74%1762,612
Smith14.54%29781.34%1,6614.11%842,042
Stafford16.03%30478.59%1,4905.38%1021,896
Stanton18.05%11577.24%4924.71%30637
Stevens11.63%22084.56%1,5993.81%721,891
Sumner21.35%2,07671.84%6,9846.81%6629,722
Thomas13.23%47381.32%2,9085.45%1953,576
Trego13.36%19882.79%1,2273.85%571,482
Wabaunsee22.96%77670.18%2,3726.86%2323,380
Wallace05.76%4690.35%7213.88%31798
Washington14.00%38779.35%2,1946.65%1842,765
Wichita14.64%14080.44%7694.92%47956
Wilson16.54%59477.64%2,7885.82%2093,591
Woodson18.92%27374.98%1,0826.10%881,443
Wyandotte61.80%30,14632.40%15,8065.80%2,82948,781

See also

References

  1. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
  2. "Kansas Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". Retrieved November 11, 2016.
  3. http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2016&def=swg&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0
  4. Martin, David (22 November 2016). "Why did Hillary Clinton do relatively well in Johnson County? College diplomas". Kansas City Pitch. Retrieved 28 January 2019.
  5. "United States House of Representatives floor summary for Jan 8, 2009". Clerk.house.gov. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2009.
  6. "Federal elections 2008" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  7. "President Map". The New York Times. November 29, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  8. "Election Other – President Obama Job Approval". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved December 24, 2015.
  9. Byrnes, Jesse (2016-06-15). "Poll: Obama approval rating highest since 2012". TheHill. Retrieved 2016-06-19.
  10. Cohn, Nate (2015-01-19). "What a Rise in Obama's Approval Rating Means for 2016". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2016-06-19.
  11. "Joe Biden Decides Not to Enter Presidential Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
  12. Kondik, Kyle; Sabato, Larry; Skelley, Geoffrey. "Clinton Rises to 348 Electoral Votes, Trump Drops to 190". Sabato's Crystal Ball. University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved 22 August 2016.
  13. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. 2016-11-06. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  14. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  15. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  16. "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  17. Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  18. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. 2016-11-07. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  19. http://www.sos.ks.gov/elections/16elec/2016_General_Election-Write-In_Presidential_Candidates.pdf
  20. http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
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