2016 United States presidential election in Vermont

The 2016 United States presidential election in Vermont was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Vermont voters chose three electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders received unsolicited write-in votes.

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Vermont
November 8, 2016
Turnout67.95%
 
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Bernie Sanders
(write-in)
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Home state New York New York Vermont
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence none
Electoral vote 3 0 0
Popular vote 178,573 95,369 18,218
Percentage 55.72% 29.76% 5.68%
County Results
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Vermont
Federal offices
Presidential elections
U.S. Senate elections
Class One
Class Three
U.S. House elections
Special elections
State offices
General elections
Gubernatorial elections
Legislative elections
Senate
House of Representatives
Municipal offices
Mayoral elections
City of Burlington
City of Rutland
Treemap of the popular vote by county.

Hillary Clinton easily won Vermont, regarded as one of the most progressive states in the country, with 55.7% of the vote,[1] a vote margin of 25.9% compared with the President Barack Obama's 35.6% vote margin in 2012.[2] Donald Trump received 29.8% of the vote and won Essex County—the most rural and sparsely populated county in the state—thus making him the first Republican presidential candidate to win a county in Vermont since George W. Bush in 2004.

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders received 5.7% of the vote through write-ins, the highest write-in draft campaign percentage for a statewide presidential candidate in history.[3] Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, received 3.1%, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein received 2.1%.[4]

Vermont had once been the quintessential "Yankee Republican" state. From 1856 to 1988, it voted Republican in every election except Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide in 1964. However, it swung hard to Bill Clinton in 1992, and the Democrats have carried it without serious difficulty since then. Trump and George W. Bush are the only Republicans to win the White House without carrying Vermont.

Primary elections

On March 1, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Vermont voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian parties. Voters who were unaffiliated chose any 1 primary in which to vote.

Democratic primary
Main article: 2016 Vermont Democratic presidential primary

The 2016 Vermont Democratic primary took place on March 1 as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, dubbed "Super Tuesday," Democratic primaries were held in 10 other states plus American Samoa, while the Republican Party held primaries in 11 states including their own Vermont primary.

As Sanders was an extremely popular favorite son, there was no campaign to speak of and all pledged delegates were given to Sanders, due to Clinton getting less than 15% of the popular vote. Sanders won every municipality in the state.

Results
Democratic primary results by county.
  Bernie Sanders
Vermont Democratic primary, March 1, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 115,900 85.69% 16 6 22
Hillary Clinton 18,338 13.56% 0 4 4
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 282 0.21%
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente 80 0.06%
Total blank votes 260 0.19%
Total write-ins 238 0.18%
Total spoiled votes 158 0.12%
Uncommitted N/A 0 0 0
Total 135,256 100% 16 10 26
Source: The Green Papers, Vermont Secretary of State

Republican primary
Main article: 2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary
Vermont Republican primary, March 1, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 19,974 32.34% 8 0 8
John Kasich 18,534 30.01% 8 0 8
Marco Rubio 11,781 19.08% 0 0 0
Ted Cruz 5,932 9.61% 0 0 0
Ben Carson 2,551 4.13% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 1,106 1.79% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 423 0.68% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 361 0.58% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 212 0.34% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 164 0.27% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 61,756 100.00% 16 0 16
Source: The Green Papers

General election

With the heavy Democratic and Progressive presence in the state, the state was bypassed by the candidates during the General.

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[5] Safe D November 6, 2016
CNN[6] Safe D November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[7] Safe D November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[8] Safe D November 8, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Safe D November 7, 2016
Fox News[10] Safe D November 7, 2016

Polling
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Vermont

Hillary Clinton won every poll pre-election by double digits. Interestingly, she only reached 50% in the last poll, leading 50% to 22%, which may indicate support for writing in Bernie Sanders or other third party candidates. The average of the final three polls showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump 48% to 22%. [11]

Results
2016 United States presidential election in Vermont[12][13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hillary Clinton 178,573 55.72%
Republican Donald Trump 95,369 29.76%
Independent Bernie Sanders (write-in) 18,218 5.68%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 10,078 3.14%
Green Jill Stein 6,758 2.11%
Reform Rocky De La Fuente 1,063 0.33%
Republican John Kasich (write-in) 831 0.26%
Independent Evan McMullin (write-in) 641 0.20%
Liberty Union Gloria La Riva 327 0.10%
Constitution Darrell Castle (write-in) 63 0.02%
Socialist Mimi Soltysik (write-in) 3 <0.01%
Write-in Other Write-in 3,143 1.00%
n/a No Name/None of the Above 257 0.09%
n/a Spoiled/blank 5,400 1.69%
Total votes 320,467 100.00%
Democratic win
Extended content
Other Write-ins Candidate Votes Percentage
Republican Mike Pence (write-in) 305 0.09%
Republican Paul Ryan (write-in) 209 0.06%
Republican Mitt Romney (write-in) 122 0.04%
Republican Marco Rubio (write-in) 93 0.03%
Republican Jeb Bush (write-in) 79 0.03%
Republican John McCain (write-in) 76 0.03%
Republican Ted Cruz (write-in) 63 0.02%
Libertarian Ron Paul (write-in) 25 0.02%
Republican Colin Powell (write-in) 25 0.02%
Democratic Martin O'Malley (write-in) 6 <0.01%
n/a Write-in (Other) 2,140 0.72%

Results by county
County Clinton Votes Trump Votes Third-Parties / Others Votes Johnson Votes Stein Votes Others Votes Total
Democrat Republican Libertarian Green
Addison59.0%11,21927.8%5,29713.2%2,5153.4%6391.9%3618.0%1,51519,031
Bennington54.9%9,53934.1%5,92511.0%1,9172.75%4781.84%3186.4%1,12117,381
Caledonia45.8%6,44539.3%5,53414.9%2,0954.1%5782.4%3338.4%1,18414,074
Chittenden65.7%54,81422.3%18,60112.0%10,0013.0%2,4692.21,7966.9%5,73683,416
Essex34.8%1,01951.5%1,50613.7%4004.1%1211.8%438.1%2362,925
Franklin43.7%9,35140.9%8,75215.5%3,3083.9%8361.5%32010.1%2,15221,411
Grand Isle51.0%2,09436.2%1,48712.9%5283.2%1311.2%508.4%3454,109
Lamoille56.7%7,24128.0%3,57015.3%1,9513.6%4572.6%3269.2%1,16812,762
Orange51.5%7,54134.2%5,00714.3%2,1013.5%5132.4%3508.5%1,23814,649
Orleans43.0%5,18542.8%5,15914.1%1,7023.3%3981.6%1949.2%1,11012,046
Rutland46.0%13,63542.1%12,47911.8%3,5013.2%9461.6%4677.1%2,08829,615
Washington59.8%18,59425.7%7,99314.5%4,4993.2%9992.9%9119.3%2,58931,086
Windham63.4%14,34024.1%5,45412.6%2,8402.6%5823.0%6777.0%1,58122,634
Windsor58.7%17,55628.8%8,60512.6%3,7673.1%9312.0%6127.9%2,22429,928

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References
  1. "2016 Presidential General Election Results - Vermont".
  2. Editors (August 1, 2017). "Vermont Election Results 2016". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-01-11.CS1 maint: extra text: authors list (link)
  3. Weigel, David (November 17, 2016). "More than 18,000 Vermonters wrote in Bernie Sanders for president". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2020-01-11.
  4. "Vermont Election Night Results". sec state vt us/. Retrieved 2016-11-12.
  5. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. 2016-11-06. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  6. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  7. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  8. "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  9. Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  10. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. 2016-11-07. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  11. Editors (2017). "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Vermont: Trump vs. Clinton". www.realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved 2020-09-15.CS1 maint: extra text: authors list (link)
  12. "Presidential Election Statement of Votes". Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved November 26, 2016.
  13. http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G16/VT The Green Papers
  14. "Here's a map of the US counties that flipped to Trump from Democrats". www.cnbc.com. Retrieved 2020-09-01.
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