2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina

The 2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. North Carolina has 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina
November 8, 2016
Turnout68.98%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 15 0
Popular vote 2,362,631 2,189,316
Percentage 49.83% 46.17%
County Results
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county.
Elections in North Carolina
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
State executive
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant Governor elections
Attorney General elections
Council of State elections
Secretary of State elections
State legislature
General Assembly elections
State Senate elections
State House elections
State judiciary
Judicial elections
Ballot measures
2012
Amendment 1
Mayoral elections
Charlotte mayoral elections
Cary mayoral elections
Durham mayoral elections
Fayetteville mayoral elections
Greensboro mayoral elections
Raleigh mayoral elections
Winston-Salem mayoral elections

Trump won the state with 49.83% of the vote, a small decrease from Mitt Romney's vote percentage in 2012. Clinton obtained 46.17% of the vote, a decrease of over 2% in 2012 when Obama won 48.35% of the vote. Trump won by a margin of 3.66%, an increase of 1.62% compared to Romney's margin in 2012. Although both candidates saw decreases in vote share compared to 2012, Trump and Clinton both obtained more votes than the previous election's candidates due to a higher voter turnout in this election. Trump flipped seven counties to Republican and was the first Republican to win Robeson, Richmond, and Gates Counties since Richard Nixon in 1972. Clinton flipped just one county to Democratic, Watauga County, home to Boone.

Trump also became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Forsyth County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924. It is also the first time since 1980 that North Carolina voted more Democratic than Ohio.

Primary elections

The Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian primaries were on March 15, 2016. In North Carolina, registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated chose any one primary in which to vote.

Democratic primary
County results of the North Carolina Democratic presidential primary, 2016.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[2][3]

Polling

According to a WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: "[Hillary] Clinton holds a commanding lead of 57% to 34% among likely Democratic voters over U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont." [4]

Results
Democratic primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hillary Clinton 616,758 54.59%
Democratic Bernie Sanders 460,434 40.75%
Democratic No Preference 37,200 3.29%
Democratic Others (total) 15,375 1.37%
Total votes 1,129,767 100.00%

Republican primary
Republican primary results by county.
  Donald Trump
  Ted Cruz

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[2][3][6]

Polling

According to a WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: "[Donald] Trump tops U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 41% to 27% among likely GOP voters. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ohio Gov. John Kasich trail far behind, at 14% and 11%, respectively." [4]

Results
North Carolina Republican primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 462,413 40.23% 29 0 29
Ted Cruz 422,621 36.76% 27 0 27
John Kasich 145,659 12.67% 9 0 9
Marco Rubio 88,907 7.73% 6 0 6
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 11,019 0.96% 1 0 1
No Preference 6,081 0.53% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,893 0.34% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 3,071 0.27% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 2,753 0.24% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,256 0.11% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 929 0.08% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 663 0.06% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) 265 0.02% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,149,530 100.00% 72 0 72
Source: The Green Papers

Trump managed to pull off a closer than expected win due to both Cruz and his campaigns performances in different metropolitan areas. Trump was strongest in the Charlotte, Fayetteville and Wilmington areas. Cruz did best in Greensboro, Asheville and the Research Triangle region, where North Carolina's major colleges and capitol of Raleigh are located.[7]

Libertarian primary
North Carolina Libertarian primary, 2016
March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15)
 
Candidate Gary Johnson No Preference
Home state New Mexico n/a
Popular vote 2,414 2,067
Percentage 41.48% 35.52%
 
Candidate John Hale Joy Waymire
Home state Kentucky California
Popular vote 329 268
Percentage 5.65% 4.61%
North Carolina results by county
  Gary Johnson
  No Preference
  Tie

Eleven candidates appeared on the Libertarian presidential primary ballot:[2][3]

  • John David Hale
  • Cecil Ince
  • Gary Johnson
  • Steve Kerbel
  • Darryl W. Perry
  • Austin Petersen
  • Derrick Michael Reid
  • Jack Robinson, Jr.
  • Rhett Smith
  • Joy Waymire
  • Marc Allan Feldman

Results
North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary, March 15, 2016[8]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Gary Johnson 2,414 41.48%
No Preference 2,067 35.52%
John David Hale 329 5.65%
Joy Waymire 268 4.61%
Austin Petersen 189 3.25%
Darryl Perry 118 2.03%
Steve Kerbel 109 1.87%
Derrick Michael Reid 74 1.27%
Cecil Ince 72 1%
Jack Robinson, Jr. 70 1.20%
Marc Allan Feldman 66 1.13%
Rhett Smith 43 0.74%
Total 5,739 100%

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
CNN[9] Tossup November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[10] Tossup November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[11] Lean D (flip) November 8, 2016
NBC[12] Tossup November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[13] Tossup November 8, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Lean D (flip) November 7, 2016

Polling
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016 § North Carolina

Up until the summer of 2016, both Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump were each winning polls, with Trump leading slightly. From late June 2016 to mid September 2016, Clinton gained momentum and had won most polls conducted in the summer. From mid September 2016 to late October, Clinton's momentum increased as she won every poll but one. The latest polls showed a near tie, with both almost evenly matched. The average of the final 3 polls showed Clinton ahead 46% to 45%.[15] Interestingly, while she had a head to head lead in the last polls against Trump, polls with Gary Johnson showed the race a lot closer. The last New York Times poll conducted showed Trump and Clinton tied with 44% for each. [16]

Candidates

In addition to Clinton, Johnson and Trump, Green Party nominee Jill Stein was granted write-in status by the North Carolina State Board of Elections, the only write-in candidate to qualify.[17][18]

Results
Candidate Popular vote Percentage
Donald Trump 2,362,631 49.83%
Hillary Clinton 2,189,316 46.17%
Gary Johnson 130,126 2.74%
Write-in 47,386 1.00%
Jill Stein (write-in) 12,105 0.26%
Total 4,741,564 100.00%
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections The Green Papers

By county
County[19] Clinton percentage Clinton Votes Trump percentage Trump Votes Johnson percentage Johnson Votes Write-in percentage Write-in Votes Stein percentage Stein Votes Totals
Alamance41.93%29,83354.55%38,8152.52%1,7950.70%4980.30%21671,157
Alexander20.62%3,76776.04%13,8932.39%4370.83%1510.13%2318,271
Alleghany24.57%1,30671.76%3,8142.43%1291.24%660.00%05,315
Anson55.56%5,85942.73%4,5061.22%1290.46%480.03%310,545
Ashe26.07%3,50070.11%9,4122.47%3321.34%1800.00%013,424
Avery20.48%1,68976.35%6,2982.01%1660.88%730.28%238,249
Beaufort36.61%8,76460.75%14,5431.78%4260.75%1800.10%2523,938
Bertie61.82%5,77836.97%3,4560.75%700.43%400.03%39,347
Bladen44.40%7,05853.78%8,5501.33%2120.42%660.07%1115,897
Brunswick34.06%23,28262.50%42,7202.51%1,7170.78%5360.14%9668,351
Buncombe54.30%75,45240.10%55,7163.08%4,2851.41%1,9591.10%1,535138,947
Burke28.91%11,25167.42%26,2382.54%9880.83%3240.31%11938,920
Cabarrus38.08%35,52157.69%53,8192.99%2,7861.04%9730.20%19093,289
Caldwell23.20%8,42573.30%26,6212.34%8490.83%3020.34%12336,320
Camden25.45%1,27470.83%3,5462.98%1490.58%290.16%85,006
Carteret26.31%9,93970.32%26,5692.42%9130.74%2780.22%8237,781
Caswell43.29%4,79254.44%6,0261.93%2140.26%290.08%911,070
Catawba29.32%21,21666.79%48,3242.73%1,9730.95%6850.21%15372,351
Chatham52.86%21,06542.92%17,1052.84%1,1301.03%4120.34%13739,849
Cherokee20.17%2,86076.47%10,8442.44%3460.69%980.23%3314,181
Chowan41.39%2,99255.53%4,0142.24%1620.68%490.15%117,228
Clay22.75%1,36773.83%4,4372.38%1430.90%540.15%96,010
Cleveland33.50%14,96463.75%28,4791.90%8500.68%3050.17%7544,673
Columbus38.19%9,06360.14%14,2721.29%3060.38%910.00%023,732
Craven37.51%17,63059.00%27,7312.57%1,2100.81%3800.11%5047,001
Cumberland56.16%71,60540.21%51,2652.65%3,3730.85%1,0840.14%179127,506
Currituck22.99%2,91372.33%9,1633.80%4820.66%840.21%2712,669
Dare36.83%7,22258.44%11,4603.44%6741.03%2010.27%5219,609
Davidson24.19%18,10972.56%54,3172.48%1,8590.65%4840.12%8774,856
Davie24.22%5,27071.71%15,6022.90%6310.95%2060.22%4721,756
Duplin39.72%8,28358.58%12,2171.25%2600.41%850.05%1120,856
Durham77.66%121,25018.16%28,3502.56%3,9991.28%2,0000.34%535156,134
Edgecombe65.19%16,22433.20%8,2611.14%2840.43%1060.04%1124,886
Forsyth52.98%94,46442.61%75,9753.01%5,3701.15%2,0540.25%449178,312
Franklin42.39%12,87453.90%16,3682.56%7770.97%2960.17%5330,368
Gaston32.33%31,17764.09%61,7982.54%2,4450.91%8730.14%13896,431
Gates44.23%2,38553.30%2,8742.00%1080.46%250.00%05,392
Graham18.43%76878.77%3,2831.78%741.03%430.00%04,168
Granville47.19%12,90949.69%13,5912.18%5960.79%2150.15%4227,353
Greene44.53%3,60554.03%4,3741.05%850.33%270.05%48,095
Guilford57.98%149,24838.10%98,0622.62%6,7541.04%2,6670.26%674257,405
Halifax62.57%15,74835.88%9,0311.15%2900.39%980.00%025,167
Harnett36.33%16,73759.95%27,6142.72%1,2520.84%3890.16%7346,065
Haywood34.08%10,47361.60%18,9292.95%9050.99%3030.38%11730,727
Henderson34.08%19,82761.55%35,8092.79%1,6261.18%6870.39%22758,176
Hertford67.84%6,91030.42%3,0991.31%1330.43%440.00%010,186
Hoke53.35%9,72642.57%7,7603.17%5770.77%1400.15%2718,230
Hyde41.88%96555.90%1,2881.82%420.35%80.04%12,304
Iredell29.96%24,73466.31%54,7542.65%2,1850.91%7540.17%14082,567
Jackson41.22%7,71352.74%9,8703.97%7421.47%2760.60%11218,713
Johnston33.01%28,36263.29%54,3722.73%2,3470.83%7160.13%11285,909
Jones40.21%2,06557.92%2,9741.15%590.72%370.00%05,135
Lee41.74%10,46954.66%13,7122.73%6840.76%1910.11%2825,084
Lenoir47.13%12,63450.78%13,6131.48%3980.53%1430.07%1926,807
Lincoln24.73%9,89771.97%28,8062.43%9710.76%3050.11%4440,023
Macon27.50%4,87668.38%12,1272.63%4671.29%2280.20%3617,734
Madison34.84%3,92660.19%6,7832.98%3360.91%1031.07%12111,269
Martin48.86%5,84649.29%5,8971.38%1650.39%470.08%911,964
McDowell23.48%4,66773.30%14,5681.99%3961.15%2290.08%1519,875
Mecklenburg62.29%294,56232.89%155,5183.28%15,4881.26%5,9370.29%1,352472,857
Mitchell19.71%1,59677.59%6,2821.70%1380.69%560.30%248,096
Montgomery35.96%4,15061.79%7,1301.76%2030.44%510.05%611,540
Moore33.54%16,32962.62%30,4902.78%1,3550.95%4640.11%5448,692
Nash48.75%23,23548.92%23,3191.57%7500.63%3010.13%6047,665
New Hanover45.56%50,97949.46%55,3443.53%3,9491.06%1,1840.40%449111,905
Northampton62.39%6,14436.37%3,5820.94%930.29%290.00%09,848
Onslow30.65%17,51464.97%37,1223.37%1,9260.84%4810.16%9257,135
Orange72.78%59,92322.54%18,5572.92%2,4041.21%9970.56%45982,340
Pamlico35.63%2,44861.98%4,2581.80%1240.44%300.15%106,870
Pasquotank49.54%8,61547.04%8,1802.54%4420.70%1220.18%3217,391
Pender33.54%9,35463.26%17,6392.45%6830.56%1570.19%5227,885
Perquimans34.57%2,31962.27%4,1772.42%1620.64%430.10%76,708
Person39.93%7,83357.02%11,1852.14%4190.72%1420.18%3619,615
Pitt51.94%41,82444.32%35,6912.68%2,1620.84%6800.21%17080,527
Polk34.16%3,73561.90%6,7682.49%2720.98%1070.48%5210,934
Randolph20.43%13,19476.55%49,4302.17%1,4030.69%4460.16%10264,575
Richmond43.98%8,50153.72%10,3831.72%3330.45%870.12%2419,328
Robeson46.54%19,01650.82%20,7621.97%8030.62%2520.06%2540,858
Rockingham33.65%14,22863.46%26,8302.06%8710.70%2940.13%5542,278
Rowan30.14%19,40066.51%42,8102.36%1,5170.88%5640.12%7864,369
Rutherford24.79%7,51272.16%21,8712.06%6240.86%2610.13%3930,307
Sampson40.68%10,54757.23%14,8381.52%3930.58%1500.00%025,928
Scotland52.55%7,31944.92%6,2561.82%2540.52%730.19%2613,928
Stanly23.71%7,09473.42%21,9642.22%6640.56%1690.09%2629,917
Stokes20.69%4,66575.90%17,1162.53%5710.77%1730.11%2522,550
Surry23.26%7,48873.52%23,6712.30%7390.78%2500.15%4832,196
Swain35.86%2,19658.21%3,5653.92%2401.53%940.47%296,124
Transylvania36.70%6,55858.87%10,5202.74%4891.23%2200.46%8217,869
Tyrrell41.40%72056.07%9751.61%280.63%110.29%51,739
Union32.48%34,33763.10%66,7073.15%3,3271.11%1,1760.15%163105,710
Vance61.22%12,22936.70%7,3321.47%2940.49%970.13%2519,977
Wake57.38%302,73637.16%196,0823.69%19,4601.44%7,6060.33%1,740527,624
Warren65.16%6,41332.66%3,2141.48%1460.70%690.00%09,842
Washington56.93%3,51041.59%2,5641.05%650.41%250.02%16,165
Watauga47.15%14,13845.68%13,6974.46%1,3361.80%5390.92%27529,985
Wayne42.95%21,77054.33%27,5401.90%9630.76%3830.07%3350,689
Wilkes21.21%6,63875.89%23,7522.07%6470.73%2280.10%3131,296
Wilson51.56%19,66345.97%17,5311.75%6670.67%2560.05%1838,135
Yadkin17.93%3,16078.76%13,8802.26%3980.86%1510.20%3517,624
Yancey32.09%3,19664.11%6,3852.62%2610.77%770.41%419,960
Totals46.17%2,189,31649.83%2,362,6312.74%130,1261.00%47,3860.26%12,1054,741,564

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won 10 of 13 congressional districts.[20]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 30% 67% G.K. Butterfield
2nd 54% 42% Renee Ellmers
George Holding
3rd 60% 36% Walter B. Jones
4th 27% 68% David Price
5th 57% 39% Virginia Foxx
6th 56% 41% Mark Walker
7th 57% 39% David Rouzer
8th 56% 41% Richard Hudson
9th 54% 42% Robert Pittenger
10th 60% 36% Patrick T. McHenry
11th 62% 33% Mark Meadows
12th 28% 68% Alma Adams
13th 53% 44% Ted Budd

Predictions

The following were final 2016 predictions from various organizations for North Carolina as of Election Day.

  1. Los Angeles Times: Leans Clinton[21]
  2. CNN: Tossup[22]
  3. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Clinton[23]
  4. NBC: Tossup[24]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Leans Clinton[25]
  6. RealClearPolitics: Tossup[26]
  7. Fox News: Tossup[27]
  8. ABC: Tossup[28]

Prior to the 2016 election, North Carolina had been a Republican stronghold since 1968 with the state voting Democratic only once between then and 2008. In 2008, North Carolina voted Democratic for only the second time in 40 years. Although the state returned to the Republican column in 2012, when the party's nominee, Mitt Romney, carried the state, it did so only narrowly, cementing its new status as a battleground state. Throughout the 2016 campaign, North Carolina was considered by most a tossup state, with the outcome going into election night heavily debated. The Trump campaign saw winning North Carolina as crucial in order for Trump to win the Electoral College; conversely, the Clinton campaign felt that it was vital for them to win the state to block Trump's path to an Electoral College win. Both Trump and Clinton campaigned in the state shortly before the general election.[29][30]

Despite winning the state, Trump, in some ways, under-performed in comparison to Romney in 2012. Romney won a majority of the vote in 2012 with 50.4% while Trump only managed a plurality of 49.8%. Similarly, Clinton also under-performed in comparison to Obama, with Clinton winning only 46.2% in comparison to Obama's 48.35%. This situation was the result of the spike in votes for third party candidates in the state as 4% of North Carolinians voted for a candidate other than the Democratic and Republican nominees in 2016 as opposed to just 1.26% in 2012.

An increase in turnout in North Carolina allowed both Trump and Clinton to out-perform Romney and Obama in terms of the total votes each candidate received. In 2016 Trump won around 92,000 more votes than Romney did in 2012 while Clinton won around 10,000 more than Obama. Furthermore, Trump also outperformed Romney by winning North Carolina by a greater margin than Romney was able to as Trump won the state over Clinton by 3.7% compared to the 2% margin Romney won over Obama.

Trump's win in North Carolina marked the 9th time the state has voted Republican in the last 10 elections and, therefore, the state continues to lean more Republican at the presidential level.

See also

References
  1. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
  2. Binker, Mark. "NC approves 27 candidates for presidential primary ballots". WRAL.com. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  4. Burns, Matthew. "WRAL News poll: Trump, Clinton poised to win NC". WRAL.com. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  5. "NC SBE Election Contest Details". Er.ncsbe.gov. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  6. "NC SBE Election Contest Details". Er.ncsbe.gov. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  7. "Live results from the North Carolina primary". graphics.latimes.com. Retrieved April 26, 2016.
  8. "NC SBE Contest Results". North Carolina State Board of Elections. Government of North Carolina. March 16, 2015. Retrieved March 16, 2016.
  9. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved April 17, 2019.
  10. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved April 17, 2019.
  11. "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved April 17, 2019.
  12. Todd, Chuck (November 7, 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved April 17, 2019.
  13. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved April 17, 2019.
  14. Sabato, Larry (November 7, 2016). "The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved April 17, 2019.
  15. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton-5538.html#polls
  16. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton-5538.html#polls
  17. "NC write-in votes won't count unless they're for Jill Stein". newsobserver.com.
  18. "Your Write-In Vote Might Not Be Counted In NC". wfmynews2.com.
  19. "North Carolina State Board of Elections". Retrieved November 14, 2012.
  20. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". www.swingstateproject.com.
  21. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  22. "Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com". Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  23. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  24. Todd, Chuck. "NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead". NBC News. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  25. "ElectoralVote". ElectoralVote. December 31, 2000. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  26. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  27. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  28. "The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election". Abcnews.go.com. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  29. Bradner, Eric (November 3, 2016). "Why North Carolina is so important in 2016". CNN. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  30. Catanese, David (November 4, 2016). "Clinton's North Carolina Firewall". US News & World Report. Retrieved February 10, 2019.

Further reading
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