2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico

The 2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico
November 8, 2016
Turnout62.36%[1]
 
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Home state New York New York New Mexico
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence Bill Weld
Electoral vote 5 0 0
Popular vote 385,234 319,667 74,541
Percentage 48.26% 40.04% 9.34%
County Results
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county
Elections in New Mexico
General elections
Federal elections
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Senate elections
House of Representatives elections
State elections
Gubernatorial elections
State Senate elections
State House elections
City of Albuquerque
Mayoral elections

Clinton won the state of New Mexico with a plurality, by a margin of 8.2 percentage points. The state had long been considered leaning Democratic, or a state Clinton would win, due to its large population of Hispanic/Latino and Native American voters. This is the third time since 1912, when New Mexico attained statehood, that the state voted for a candidate who did not win the Electoral College, after 1976 and 2000. However, in this election and in 2000, New Mexico voted for the candidate who received the most votes. Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson achieved 9% in his home state, his best performance of any state and the Libertarian Party's best performance in any single state since Ed Clark received 11.66% of the vote in Alaska in 1980.[3] Johnson's result was also the best result for a third party or independent candidate in New Mexico since Ross Perot's campaign in 1992.

Primary elections

Democratic primary
Main article: 2016 New Mexico Democratic primary

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic Party (United States) presidential primary ballot:

New Mexico Democratic primary, June 7, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 111,334 51.53% 18 9 27
Bernie Sanders 104,741 48.47% 16 0 16
Uncommitted N/A 0 0 0
Total 216,075 100% 34 9 43
Source: The Green Papers, New Mexico State Board of Elections,
New Mexico Democratic Delegates Allocation

Republican primary

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

Donald Trump, the only candidate with an active campaign, won every delegate from New Mexico.

New Mexico Republican primary, June 7, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 73,908 70.64% 24 0 24
Ted Cruz (withdrawn) 13,925 13.31% 0 0 0
John Kasich (withdrawn) 7,925 7.57% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 3,830 3.66% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,531 3.37% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 1,508 1.44% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 104,627 100.00% 24 0 24
Source: The Green Papers

Polling
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § New Mexico

Albuquerque Journal October 2, 2016[4]

  • Clinton 35%
  • Trump 31%
  • Johnson 24%
  • Stein 2%

Albuquerque Journal November 5, 2016[5]

  • Clinton 45%
  • Trump 40%
  • Johnson 11%
  • Stein 3%

Clinton won every pre-election poll conducted. Her margin of victory varied from 2 points to 13 points. The last poll showed Clinton ahead of Trump 46% to 44%, while the average of the last three had Clinton leading Trump 45% to 40%, with many undecided voters who probably considered Gary Johnson, the state's former governor.[6] Johnson even reached 24% in one poll conducted by the Albuquerque Journal.

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[7] Safe D November 6, 2016
CNN[8] Safe D November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[9] Likely D November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[10] Lean D November 8, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Likely D November 7, 2016
Fox News[12] Lean D November 7, 2016

Results
2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine 385,234 48.26%
Republican Donald Trump and Mike Pence 319,667 40.04%
Libertarian Gary Johnson and William Weld 74,541 9.34%
Green Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka 9,879 1.24%
Independent Evan McMullin and Nathan Johnson 5,825 0.73%
Constitution Darrell Castle and Scott Bradley 1,514 0.19%
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva and Dennis Banks 1,184 0.14%
Independent Rocky De La Fuente and Michael Steinberg 475 0.06%
Total votes 798,319 100.00%

Results by county

Official results from New Mexico Secretary of State.[14]

CountyCandidate Total
ClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinMcMullinCastleLa RivaDe La
Fuente
Bernalillo percent 52.22% 34.48% 10.81% 1.32% 0.79% 0.17% 0.16% 0.05% 100.00%
votes 143,417 94,698 29,682 3,614 2,181 474 445 151 274,662
Catron percent 20.84% 71.45% 5.42% 1.12% 0.54% 0.59% 0.00% 0.05% 100.00%
votes 427 1,464 111 23 11 12 0 1 2,049
Chaves percent 27.30% 63.50% 7.94% 0.42% 0.50% 0.16% 0.11% 0.07% 100.00%
votes 5,534 12,872 1,609 86 102 32 22 14 20,271
Cibola percent 46.40% 39.63% 12.03% 0.91% 0.53% 0.20% 0.25% 0.06% 100.00%
votes 3,741 3,195 970 73 43 16 20 5 8,063
Colfax percent 39.93% 48.48% 9.88% 0.69% 0.58% 0.23% 0.09% 0.11% 100.00%
votes 2,129 2,585 527 37 31 12 5 6 5,332
Curry percent 23.34% 67.58% 7.28% 0.55% 0.84% 0.29% 0.07% 0.04% 100.00%
votes 3,121 9,035 973 74 112 39 10 6 13,370
De Baca percent 21.21% 68.13% 9.78% 0.66% 0.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
votes 193 620 89 6 2 0 0 0 910
Doña Ana percent 53.71% 35.92% 7.74% 1.35% 0.80% 0.22% 0.16% 0.09% 100.00%
votes 37,947 25,374 5,471 953 566 157 115 65 70,648
Eddy percent 25.59% 66.85% 6.48% 0.43% 0.42% 0.14% 0.06% 0.03% 100.00%
votes 5,033 13,147 1,275 84 83 27 12 6 19,667
Grant percent 48.99% 41.28% 7.02% 1.70% 0.62% 0.20% 0.15% 0.05% 100.00%
votes 6,276 5,288 899 218 80 25 19 6 12,811
Guadalupe percent 53.09% 32.57% 13.03% 0.99% 0.27% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
votes 970 595 238 18 5 1 0 0 1,827
Harding percent 29.60% 59.01% 10.44% 0.57% 0.00% 0.38% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
votes 156 311 55 3 0 2 0 0 527
Hidalgo percent 41.88% 48.61% 7.32% 0.32% 1.44% 0.11% 0.16% 0.16% 100.00%
votes 784 910 137 6 27 2 3 3 1,872
Lea percent 22.19% 70.55% 6.20% 0.32% 0.45% 0.15% 0.10% 0.06% 100.00%
votes 3,930 12,495 1,098 56 80 26 17 10 17,712
Lincoln percent 26.19% 66.23% 6.29% 0.66% 0.40% 0.10% 0.10% 0.02% 100.00%
votes 2,331 5,896 560 59 36 9 9 2 8,902
Los Alamos percent 51.10% 30.86% 13.89% 1.10% 2.67% 0.27% 0.06% 0.05% 100.00%
votes 5,562 3,359 1,512 120 291 29 7 5 10,885
Luna percent 43.80% 47.68% 6.59% 0.90% 0.69% 0.18% 0.07% 0.10% 100.00%
votes 3,195 3,478 481 66 50 13 5 7 7,295
McKinley percent 62.55% 23.52% 11.11% 1.31% 0.80% 0.27% 0.35% 0.09% 100.00%
votes 13,576 5,104 2,412 284 173 58 76 20 21,703
Mora percent 62.93% 27.24% 7.95% 1.43% 0.20% 0.16% 0.04% 0.04% 100.00%
votes 1,536 665 194 35 5 4 1 1 2,441
Otero percent 30.53% 59.26% 8.04% 0.84% 0.81% 0.33% 0.11% 0.07% 100.00%
votes 6,124 11,886 1,613 169 162 67 23 15 20,059
Quay percent 28.47% 61.93% 8.37% 0.42% 0.48% 0.22% 0.06% 0.06% 100.00%
votes 1,017 2,212 299 15 17 8 2 2 3,572
Rio Arriba percent 64.47% 24.19% 9.58% 1.26% 0.19% 0.11% 0.11% 0.09% 100.00%
votes 9,592 3,599 1,425 188 28 17 16 13 14,878
Roosevelt percent 24.44% 65.28% 8.10% 0.81% 0.97% 0.18% 0.13% 0.08% 100.00%
votes 1,454 3,884 482 48 58 11 8 5 5,950
San Juan percent 27.90% 60.61% 9.11% 0.76% 1.09% 0.27% 0.21% 0.05% 100.00%
votes 12,865 27,946 4,200 352 503 125 97 22 46,110
San Miguel percent 67.76% 21.51% 8.51% 1.49% 0.33% 0.23% 0.09% 0.07% 100.00%
votes 7,285 2,313 915 160 35 25 10 8 10,751
Sandoval percent 44.91% 41.99% 10.79% 1.02% 0.90% 0.21% 0.12% 0.06% 100.00%
votes 27,707 25,905 6,657 627 553 129 76 36 61,690
Santa Fe percent 71.10% 20.06% 6.11% 2.03% 0.41% 0.10% 0.13% 0.04% 100.00%
votes 50,793 14,332 4,362 1,452 295 75 95 30 71,434
Sierra percent 31.11% 58.10% 8.53% 1.51% 0.39% 0.23% 0.12% 0.02% 100.00%
votes 1,612 3,010 442 78 20 12 6 1 5,181
Socorro percent 48.24% 38.09% 11.68% 0.87% 0.57% 0.22% 0.29% 0.04% 100.00%
votes 3,313 2,616 802 60 39 15 20 3 6,868
Taos percent 69.91% 17.87% 7.73% 4.04% 0.20% 0.04% 0.18% 0.03% 100.00%
votes 10,668 2,727 1,179 617 31 6 27 5 15,260
Torrance percent 28.23% 58.73% 10.94% 1.04% 0.57% 0.25% 0.14% 0.09% 100.00%
votes 1,785 3,714 692 66 36 16 9 6 6,324
Union percent 18.80% 71.45% 7.87% 0.76% 0.53% 0.41% 0.06% 0.12% 100.00%
votes 320 1,216 134 13 9 7 1 2 1,702
Valencia percent 39.29% 47.89% 11.04% 0.79% 0.58% 0.23% 0.10% 0.07% 100.00%
votes 10,841 13,215 3,046 219 161 63 28 19 27,592
Total percent 48.26% 40.04% 9.34% 1.24% 0.73% 0.19% 0.15% 0.06% 100.00%
votes 385,234 319,666 74,541 9,879 5,825 1,514 1,184 475 798,318

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[15]

By congressional district

Clinton won 2 of 3 congressional districts.[16]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 35% 52% Michelle Lujan Grisham
2nd 50% 40% Steve Pearce
3rd 37% 52% Ben Ray Luján

See also

References
  1. "Official Results - General Election - November 8, 2016". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved 4 November 2020.
  2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
  3. "2016 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved 2018-03-05.
  4. Coleman, Michael (October 2, 2016). "Clinton, Trump in tight race in New Mexico". Albuquerque Journal.
  5. Coleman, Michael (November 5, 2016). "Journal Poll: Clinton still ahead in NM". Albuquerque Journal.
  6. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nm/new_mexico_trump_vs_clinton-5894.html#polls
  7. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. 2016-11-06. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  8. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  9. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  10. "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  11. Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  12. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. 2016-11-07. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  13. "Election Night Results". Retrieved 2016-12-07.
  14. Official Results General Election - November 8, 2016 Last Updated: 11/25/2016 11:16:11 AM., New Mexico Secretary of State
  15. Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2020-09-01.
  16. "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
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