2016 United States presidential election in Iowa

The 2016 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

2016 United States presidential election in Iowa

November 8, 2016
Turnout72.77%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 800,983 653,669
Percentage 51.15% 41.74%

County Results

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county

Trump won the state with 51.2% of the vote, while Clinton received 41.7%. Clinton's performance in Iowa was the worst performance for a Democrat since 1980. Trump won over a dozen counties that had not voted Republican since Ronald Reagan was on the ticket; won two counties that had last voted Republican in Richard Nixon's landslide victory in 1972; and won a county, Dubuque, that had last voted Republican in 1956.[2] Trump carried Iowa by the largest margin of any Republican candidate since Reagan in 1980, and he was the first Republican to win more than 50% of the popular vote since Reagan's 1984 landslide. Trump enjoyed the support of working-class whites in the agricultural industry, as well as the endorsement of Iowa's GOP establishment.[3][4]

The difference of 9.4% points was the largest winning margin for Trump in a state that had voted for Barack Obama in 2012. This was also the first time since 1976 when Iowa voted to the right of Texas, whose margin of victory of 8.99 points was smaller than that of Iowa's 9.41 points. Trump carried 93 out of 99 counties, the most for a Republican presidential nominee since 1980, and flipped 32 counties won by Obama in 2012, the most of any state.[5] This was the first time since 1988 in which Iowa did not go for the winner of the popular vote.

Background

The incumbent President of the United States, Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, was first elected to the presidency in 2008, running with U.S. Senator Joe Biden of Delaware. Defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote,[6][7] Obama succeeded two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Obama and Biden were reelected in the 2012 presidential election, defeating former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 61.7% of electoral votes.[8] Although Barack Obama's approval rating in the RealClearPolitics poll tracking average remained between 40 and 50 percent for most of his second term, it experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year.[9][10] Analyst Nate Cohn noted that a strong approval rating for President Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate, and vice versa.[11]

President Obama was not eligible to be re-elected after having served two terms. Obama's running-mate and two-term Vice President Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either.[12]

Caucuses

Democratic caucus

Procedure

There is no ballot; instead, a unique form of debate and groupings chose delegates to county conventions supporting Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, and Bernie Sanders. The Iowa Democratic Party does not release vote counts or the numbers of these delegates.

Results of the Democratic caucuses by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders
  Tie
 2016 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Iowa
– Summary of results –
Candidate State delegate equivalents Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 700.47 49.84% 23 6 29
Bernie Sanders 696.92 49.59% 21 0 21
Martin O'Malley 7.63 0.54% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 0.46 0.03% 0 1 1
Total 1,405.48 100% 44 7 51
Source: The Green Papers, Iowa Democrats

County Conventions

In early March, the delegates chosen in the Caucuses met chose delegates to the Congressional District Conventions.

Republican caucus

Election results by county.
  Ted Cruz
  Donald Trump
  Marco Rubio
  Tie between Cruz and Trump
Iowa Republican precinct caucuses, February 1, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Ted Cruz 51,666 27.64% 8 0 8
Donald Trump 45,427 24.3% 7 0 7
Marco Rubio 43,165 23.12% 7 0 7
Ben Carson 17,395 9.3% 3 0 3
Rand Paul 8,481 4.54% 1 0 1
Jeb Bush 5,238 2.8% 1 0 1
Carly Fiorina 3,485 1.86% 1 0 1
John Kasich 3,474 1.86% 1 0 1
Mike Huckabee 3,345 1.79% 1 0 1
Chris Christie 3,284 1.76% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum 1,783 0.95% 0 0 0
Other 117 0.06% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore 12 0.01% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 186,932 100.00% 30 0 30
Source: "Iowa". cnn.com. Retrieved 23 November 2016.

Polling

Up until late August 2016, the election was close, with both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton winning polls but neither taking a serious lead. In September 2016, Trump gained momentum, by winning a poll 44% to 39% in early September and then winning 3 more polls in a row by margins larger than 5%. From late September 2016 till election day, Trump won every poll but one. The final poll average showed Donald Trump ahead 44% to 41%, with many undecided voters that mostly swung to Donald Trump on election night. [13] The latest poll also showed Trump ahead by 46% to 39%.[14]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
CNN[15] Lean R (flip) November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[16] Lean R (flip) November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[17] Likely R (flip) November 8, 2016
NBC[18] Lean R (flip) November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[19] Tossup November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] Lean R (flip) November 7, 2016

Results

Chart of popular vote

  Trump (51.15%)
  Clinton (41.74%)
  Johnson (3.78%)
  Write-ins (1.13%)
  McMullin (0.79%)
  Stein (0.73%)
  Others (0.67%)
2016 United States presidential election in Iowa
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 800,983 51.15% 6
Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 653,669 41.74% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson William Weld 59,186 3.78% 0
Write-in Various Various 17,746 1.13% 0
Independent Evan McMullin Nathan Johnson 12,366 0.79% 0
Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 11,479 0.73% 0
Constitution Darrell Castle Scott Bradley 5,335 0.34% 0
New Independent Lynn Kahn Jay Stolba 2,247 0.14% 0
Legal Marijuana Now Dan Vacek Mark Elworth 2,246 0.14% 0
Independent Rocky De La Fuente Michael Steinberg 451 0.03% 0
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva Dennis J. Banks 323 0.02% 0
Totals 1,566,031 100.00% 6
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 72.0%
Source: Iowa Secretary of State

By county

County Trump # Trump
%
Clinton # Clinton
%
Others # Others
%
Total
Adair2,46164.58%1,13329.73%2175.69%3,811
Adams1,39566.24%56526.83%1466.93%2,106
Allamakee4,09359.12%2,42134.97%4095.91%6,923
Appanoose4,03365.73%1,81429.56%2894.71%6,136
Audubon2,13662.60%1,08031.65%1965.74%3,412
Benton8,23259.46%4,67833.79%9346.75%13,844
Black Hawk27,47642.66%32,23350.05%4,6967.29%64,405
Boone7,48452.72%5,54139.03%1,1718.25%14,196
Bremer7,20853.24%5,35639.56%9747.19%13,538
Buchanan5,51053.75%3,97038.72%7727.53%10,252
Buena Vista4,90359.23%2,85634.50%5196.27%8,278
Butler4,92165.50%2,15728.71%4355.79%7,513
Calhoun3,46867.22%1,39827.10%2935.68%5,159
Carroll6,63862.96%3,30931.38%5975.66%10,544
Cass4,76166.82%1,95127.38%4135.80%7,125
Cedar5,29555.50%3,59937.72%6476.78%9,541
Cerro Gordo11,62150.60%9,86242.94%1,4826.45%22,965
Cherokee4,19266.99%1,67926.83%3876.18%6,258
Chickasaw3,74258.15%2,26635.21%4276.64%6,435
Clarke2,71360.91%1,46532.89%2766.20%4,454
Clay5,87768.20%2,24926.10%4915.70%8,617
Clayton5,31758.24%3,23735.46%5756.30%9,129
Clinton11,27648.88%10,09543.76%1,6967.35%23,067
Crawford4,61766.58%1,99128.71%3274.72%6,935
Dallas19,33950.56%15,70141.05%3,2128.40%38,252
Davis2,72370.14%97725.17%1824.69%3,882
Decatur2,29661.49%1,20132.16%2376.35%3,734
Delaware5,69461.62%2,95732.00%5906.38%9,241
Des Moines9,52949.88%8,21242.99%1,3627.13%19,103
Dickinson6,75365.22%3,05629.52%5455.26%10,354
Dubuque23,46047.18%22,85045.96%3,4116.86%49,721
Emmet3,12465.73%1,35728.55%2725.72%4,753
Fayette5,62056.34%3,68936.98%6666.68%9,975
Floyd4,37554.28%3,17939.44%5066.28%8,060
Franklin3,16363.67%1,49330.05%3126.28%4,968
Fremont2,40766.95%96326.79%2256.26%3,595
Greene2,82058.49%1,69135.08%3106.43%4,821
Grundy4,52765.88%1,85627.01%4897.12%6,872
Guthrie3,62863.10%1,73230.12%3906.78%5,750
Hamilton4,46358.01%2,72635.43%5056.56%7,694
Hancock3,97767.74%1,58727.03%3075.23%5,871
Hardin5,25461.57%2,78732.66%4925.77%8,533
Harrison4,90265.67%2,13128.55%4325.79%7,465
Henry5,77961.45%2,90430.88%7217.67%9,404
Howard2,61157.27%1,67736.78%2715.94%4,559
Humboldt3,56870.14%1,25224.61%2675.25%5,087
Ida2,65573.50%79221.93%1654.57%3,612
Iowa5,20558.46%3,08434.64%6156.91%8,904
Jackson5,82456.49%3,83737.22%6496.29%10,310
Jasper10,56055.48%7,10937.35%1,3657.17%19,034
Jefferson3,74845.95%3,71045.49%6988.56%8,156
Johnson21,04427.35%50,20065.25%5,6967.40%76,940
Jones5,72056.45%3,78737.37%6266.18%10,133
Keokuk3,39068.00%1,34226.92%2535.08%4,985
Kossuth5,65365.68%2,54329.55%4114.78%8,607
Lee8,80354.50%6,21538.48%1,1337.02%16,151
Linn48,39041.32%58,93550.33%9,7738.35%117,098
Louisa3,06961.28%1,64832.91%2915.81%5,008
Lucas2,87766.08%1,23928.46%2385.47%4,354
Lyon5,19281.42%92014.43%2654.16%6,377
Madison5,36062.07%2,67831.01%5986.92%8,636
Mahaska7,43269.90%2,61924.63%5815.46%10,632
Marion10,96261.53%5,48230.77%1,3727.70%17,816
Marshall9,14650.87%7,65242.56%1,1826.57%17,980
Mills5,06765.82%2,09027.15%5417.03%7,698
Mitchell3,19058.89%1,88834.85%3396.26%5,417
Monona3,12068.24%1,24727.27%2054.48%4,572
Monroe2,63868.25%1,05627.32%1714.42%3,865
Montgomery3,43668.12%1,31426.05%2945.83%5,044
Muscatine9,58449.32%8,36843.06%1,4827.63%19,434
O'Brien5,75277.67%1,31517.76%3394.58%7,406
Osceola2,53178.77%55217.18%1304.05%3,213
Page4,89369.46%1,80725.65%3444.88%7,044
Palo Alto3,08165.51%1,39829.73%2244.76%4,703
Plymouth9,68073.39%2,88521.87%6254.74%13,190
Pocahontas2,70269.91%96324.92%2005.17%3,865
Polk93,49240.38%119,80451.74%18,2597.89%231,555
Pottawattamie24,44757.28%15,35535.98%2,8786.74%42,680
Poweshiek4,94650.30%4,30443.77%5835.93%9,833
Ringgold1,82467.38%75327.82%1304.80%2,707
Sac3,70371.05%1,27024.37%2394.59%5,212
Scott39,14945.41%40,44046.90%6,6317.69%86,220
Shelby4,36268.48%1,66226.09%3465.43%6,370
Sioux14,78581.26%2,30012.64%1,1096.10%18,194
Story19,45838.40%25,70950.74%5,50010.86%50,667
Tama4,97156.80%3,19636.52%5856.68%8,752
Taylor2,11169.69%75825.02%1605.28%3,029
Union3,52560.44%1,92232.96%3856.60%5,832
Van Buren2,52770.96%84523.73%1895.31%3,561
Wapello8,71557.53%5,59436.93%8405.54%15,149
Warren14,81454.26%10,41138.14%2,0757.60%27,300
Washington6,17356.48%3,94336.08%8137.44%10,929
Wayne2,06970.37%71924.46%1525.17%2,940
Webster10,05657.69%6,30536.17%1,0696.13%17,430
Winnebago3,44759.56%1,93133.37%4097.07%5,787
Winneshiek5,34447.03%5,25446.24%7646.72%11,362
Woodbury24,72756.56%16,21037.08%2,7816.36%43,718
Worth2,45357.62%1,53035.94%2746.44%4,257
Wright3,80063.06%1,89631.46%3305.48%6,026
Iowa Total800,98351.15%653,66941.74%111,3797.11%1,566,031

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[5]

By congressional district

Trump won all 4 of the congressional districts.[21]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 48% 45% Rod Blum
2nd 49% 44% Dave Loebsack
3rd 48% 45% David Young
4th 60% 33% Steve King

See also

References

  1. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
  2. "Iowa Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". Retrieved November 10, 2016.
  3. "Donald Trump wins Iowa on a wave of popular discontent". Des Moines Register. Retrieved 2017-01-16.
  4. Bash, Dana; Crutchfield, Abigail. "Can Trump turn Iowa red?". CNN. Retrieved 2017-01-16.
  5. "Dozens Of Iowa Counties Flipped Red For Trump in 2016. Will They Stand By Him In 2020?". www.wbur.org. Retrieved 2020-09-01.
  6. "United States House of Representatives floor summary for Jan 8, 2009". Clerk.house.gov. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2009.
  7. "Federal elections 2008" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  8. "President Map". The New York Times. November 29, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  9. "Election Other – President Obama Job Approval". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved December 24, 2015.
  10. Byrnes, Jesse (2016-06-15). "Poll: Obama approval rating highest since 2012". TheHill. Retrieved 2016-06-19.
  11. Cohn, Nate (2015-01-19). "What a Rise in Obama's Approval Rating Means for 2016". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2016-06-19.
  12. "Joe Biden Decides Not to Enter Presidential Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
  13. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton-5597.html#polls
  14. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton-5597.html#polls
  15. Chalian, David (4 November 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved 10 February 2019.
  16. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. 7 November 2016. Retrieved 10 February 2019.
  17. "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 10 February 2019.
  18. Todd, Chuck (7 November 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved 10 February 2019.
  19. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 10 February 2019.
  20. Sabato, Larry (7 November 2016). "The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved 10 February 2019.
  21. http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
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