2016 United States presidential election in Iowa
The 2016 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]
.svg.png.webp){kind=small} | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 72.77%  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 County Results
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
.jpg.webp)
| Elections in Iowa |
|---|
 |
 State government |
Trump won the state with 51.2% of the vote, while Clinton received 41.7%. Clinton's performance in Iowa was the worst performance for a Democrat since 1980. Trump won over a dozen counties that had not voted Republican since Ronald Reagan was on the ticket; won two counties that had last voted Republican in Richard Nixon's landslide victory in 1972; and won a county, Dubuque, that had last voted Republican in 1956.[2] Trump carried Iowa by the largest margin of any Republican candidate since Reagan in 1980, and he was the first Republican to win more than 50% of the popular vote since Reagan's 1984 landslide. Trump enjoyed the support of working-class whites in the agricultural industry, as well as the endorsement of Iowa's GOP establishment.[3][4]
The difference of 9.4% points was the largest winning margin for Trump in a state that had voted for Barack Obama in 2012. This was also the first time since 1976 when Iowa voted to the right of Texas, whose margin of victory of 8.99 points was smaller than that of Iowa's 9.41 points. Trump carried 93 out of 99 counties, the most for a Republican presidential nominee since 1980, and flipped 32 counties won by Obama in 2012, the most of any state.[5] This was the first time since 1988 in which Iowa did not go for the winner of the popular vote.
Background
The incumbent President of the United States, Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, was first elected to the presidency in 2008, running with U.S. Senator Joe Biden of Delaware. Defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote,[6][7] Obama succeeded two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Obama and Biden were reelected in the 2012 presidential election, defeating former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 61.7% of electoral votes.[8] Although Barack Obama's approval rating in the RealClearPolitics poll tracking average remained between 40 and 50 percent for most of his second term, it experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year.[9][10] Analyst Nate Cohn noted that a strong approval rating for President Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate, and vice versa.[11]
President Obama was not eligible to be re-elected after having served two terms. Obama's running-mate and two-term Vice President Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either.[12]
Caucuses
Democratic caucus
Procedure
There is no ballot; instead, a unique form of debate and groupings chose delegates to county conventions supporting Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, and Bernie Sanders. The Iowa Democratic Party does not release vote counts or the numbers of these delegates.
| Candidate | State delegate equivalents | Estimated delegates | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
 Hillary Clinton |
700.47 | 49.84% | 23 | 6 | 29 |
| Bernie Sanders | 696.92 | 49.59% | 21 | 0 | 21 |
| Martin O'Malley | 7.63 | 0.54% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 0.46 | 0.03% | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 1,405.48 | 100% | 44 | 7 | 51 |
| Source: The Green Papers, Iowa Democrats | |||||
County Conventions
In early March, the delegates chosen in the Caucuses met chose delegates to the Congressional District Conventions.
Republican caucus
| Iowa Republican precinct caucuses, February 1, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Ted Cruz | 51,666 | 27.64% | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| Donald Trump | 45,427 | 24.3% | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Marco Rubio | 43,165 | 23.12% | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Ben Carson | 17,395 | 9.3% | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Rand Paul | 8,481 | 4.54% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeb Bush | 5,238 | 2.8% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Carly Fiorina | 3,485 | 1.86% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| John Kasich | 3,474 | 1.86% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Huckabee | 3,345 | 1.79% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Christie | 3,284 | 1.76% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rick Santorum | 1,783 | 0.95% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other | 117 | 0.06% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jim Gilmore | 12 | 0.01% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 186,932 | 100.00% | 30 | 0 | 30 |
| Source: "Iowa". cnn.com. Retrieved 23 November 2016. | |||||
Polling
Up until late August 2016, the election was close, with both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton winning polls but neither taking a serious lead. In September 2016, Trump gained momentum, by winning a poll 44% to 39% in early September and then winning 3 more polls in a row by margins larger than 5%. From late September 2016 till election day, Trump won every poll but one. The final poll average showed Donald Trump ahead 44% to 41%, with many undecided voters that mostly swung to Donald Trump on election night. [13] The latest poll also showed Trump ahead by 46% to 39%.[14]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| CNN[15] | Lean R (flip) | November 4, 2016 |
| Cook Political Report[16] | Lean R (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
| Electoral-vote.com[17] | Likely R (flip) | November 8, 2016 |
| NBC[18] | Lean R (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[19] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] | Lean R (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
Results
Chart of popular vote
| 2016 United States presidential election in Iowa | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | Donald Trump | Mike Pence | 800,983 | 51.15% | 6 | |
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton | Tim Kaine | 653,669 | 41.74% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson | William Weld | 59,186 | 3.78% | 0 | |
| Write-in | Various | Various | 17,746 | 1.13% | 0 | |
| Independent | Evan McMullin | Nathan Johnson | 12,366 | 0.79% | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein | Ajamu Baraka | 11,479 | 0.73% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Darrell Castle | Scott Bradley | 5,335 | 0.34% | 0 | |
| New Independent | Lynn Kahn | Jay Stolba | 2,247 | 0.14% | 0 | |
| Legal Marijuana Now | Dan Vacek | Mark Elworth | 2,246 | 0.14% | 0 | |
| Independent | Rocky De La Fuente | Michael Steinberg | 451 | 0.03% | 0 | |
| Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva | Dennis J. Banks | 323 | 0.02% | 0 | |
| Totals | 1,566,031 | 100.00% | 6 | |||
| Voter turnout (Voting age population) | 72.0% | |||||
| Source: Iowa Secretary of State | ||||||
By county
| County | Trump # | Trump % |
Clinton # | Clinton % |
Others # | Others % |
Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adair | 2,461 | 64.58% | 1,133 | 29.73% | 217 | 5.69% | 3,811 |
| Adams | 1,395 | 66.24% | 565 | 26.83% | 146 | 6.93% | 2,106 |
| Allamakee | 4,093 | 59.12% | 2,421 | 34.97% | 409 | 5.91% | 6,923 |
| Appanoose | 4,033 | 65.73% | 1,814 | 29.56% | 289 | 4.71% | 6,136 |
| Audubon | 2,136 | 62.60% | 1,080 | 31.65% | 196 | 5.74% | 3,412 |
| Benton | 8,232 | 59.46% | 4,678 | 33.79% | 934 | 6.75% | 13,844 |
| Black Hawk | 27,476 | 42.66% | 32,233 | 50.05% | 4,696 | 7.29% | 64,405 |
| Boone | 7,484 | 52.72% | 5,541 | 39.03% | 1,171 | 8.25% | 14,196 |
| Bremer | 7,208 | 53.24% | 5,356 | 39.56% | 974 | 7.19% | 13,538 |
| Buchanan | 5,510 | 53.75% | 3,970 | 38.72% | 772 | 7.53% | 10,252 |
| Buena Vista | 4,903 | 59.23% | 2,856 | 34.50% | 519 | 6.27% | 8,278 |
| Butler | 4,921 | 65.50% | 2,157 | 28.71% | 435 | 5.79% | 7,513 |
| Calhoun | 3,468 | 67.22% | 1,398 | 27.10% | 293 | 5.68% | 5,159 |
| Carroll | 6,638 | 62.96% | 3,309 | 31.38% | 597 | 5.66% | 10,544 |
| Cass | 4,761 | 66.82% | 1,951 | 27.38% | 413 | 5.80% | 7,125 |
| Cedar | 5,295 | 55.50% | 3,599 | 37.72% | 647 | 6.78% | 9,541 |
| Cerro Gordo | 11,621 | 50.60% | 9,862 | 42.94% | 1,482 | 6.45% | 22,965 |
| Cherokee | 4,192 | 66.99% | 1,679 | 26.83% | 387 | 6.18% | 6,258 |
| Chickasaw | 3,742 | 58.15% | 2,266 | 35.21% | 427 | 6.64% | 6,435 |
| Clarke | 2,713 | 60.91% | 1,465 | 32.89% | 276 | 6.20% | 4,454 |
| Clay | 5,877 | 68.20% | 2,249 | 26.10% | 491 | 5.70% | 8,617 |
| Clayton | 5,317 | 58.24% | 3,237 | 35.46% | 575 | 6.30% | 9,129 |
| Clinton | 11,276 | 48.88% | 10,095 | 43.76% | 1,696 | 7.35% | 23,067 |
| Crawford | 4,617 | 66.58% | 1,991 | 28.71% | 327 | 4.72% | 6,935 |
| Dallas | 19,339 | 50.56% | 15,701 | 41.05% | 3,212 | 8.40% | 38,252 |
| Davis | 2,723 | 70.14% | 977 | 25.17% | 182 | 4.69% | 3,882 |
| Decatur | 2,296 | 61.49% | 1,201 | 32.16% | 237 | 6.35% | 3,734 |
| Delaware | 5,694 | 61.62% | 2,957 | 32.00% | 590 | 6.38% | 9,241 |
| Des Moines | 9,529 | 49.88% | 8,212 | 42.99% | 1,362 | 7.13% | 19,103 |
| Dickinson | 6,753 | 65.22% | 3,056 | 29.52% | 545 | 5.26% | 10,354 |
| Dubuque | 23,460 | 47.18% | 22,850 | 45.96% | 3,411 | 6.86% | 49,721 |
| Emmet | 3,124 | 65.73% | 1,357 | 28.55% | 272 | 5.72% | 4,753 |
| Fayette | 5,620 | 56.34% | 3,689 | 36.98% | 666 | 6.68% | 9,975 |
| Floyd | 4,375 | 54.28% | 3,179 | 39.44% | 506 | 6.28% | 8,060 |
| Franklin | 3,163 | 63.67% | 1,493 | 30.05% | 312 | 6.28% | 4,968 |
| Fremont | 2,407 | 66.95% | 963 | 26.79% | 225 | 6.26% | 3,595 |
| Greene | 2,820 | 58.49% | 1,691 | 35.08% | 310 | 6.43% | 4,821 |
| Grundy | 4,527 | 65.88% | 1,856 | 27.01% | 489 | 7.12% | 6,872 |
| Guthrie | 3,628 | 63.10% | 1,732 | 30.12% | 390 | 6.78% | 5,750 |
| Hamilton | 4,463 | 58.01% | 2,726 | 35.43% | 505 | 6.56% | 7,694 |
| Hancock | 3,977 | 67.74% | 1,587 | 27.03% | 307 | 5.23% | 5,871 |
| Hardin | 5,254 | 61.57% | 2,787 | 32.66% | 492 | 5.77% | 8,533 |
| Harrison | 4,902 | 65.67% | 2,131 | 28.55% | 432 | 5.79% | 7,465 |
| Henry | 5,779 | 61.45% | 2,904 | 30.88% | 721 | 7.67% | 9,404 |
| Howard | 2,611 | 57.27% | 1,677 | 36.78% | 271 | 5.94% | 4,559 |
| Humboldt | 3,568 | 70.14% | 1,252 | 24.61% | 267 | 5.25% | 5,087 |
| Ida | 2,655 | 73.50% | 792 | 21.93% | 165 | 4.57% | 3,612 |
| Iowa | 5,205 | 58.46% | 3,084 | 34.64% | 615 | 6.91% | 8,904 |
| Jackson | 5,824 | 56.49% | 3,837 | 37.22% | 649 | 6.29% | 10,310 |
| Jasper | 10,560 | 55.48% | 7,109 | 37.35% | 1,365 | 7.17% | 19,034 |
| Jefferson | 3,748 | 45.95% | 3,710 | 45.49% | 698 | 8.56% | 8,156 |
| Johnson | 21,044 | 27.35% | 50,200 | 65.25% | 5,696 | 7.40% | 76,940 |
| Jones | 5,720 | 56.45% | 3,787 | 37.37% | 626 | 6.18% | 10,133 |
| Keokuk | 3,390 | 68.00% | 1,342 | 26.92% | 253 | 5.08% | 4,985 |
| Kossuth | 5,653 | 65.68% | 2,543 | 29.55% | 411 | 4.78% | 8,607 |
| Lee | 8,803 | 54.50% | 6,215 | 38.48% | 1,133 | 7.02% | 16,151 |
| Linn | 48,390 | 41.32% | 58,935 | 50.33% | 9,773 | 8.35% | 117,098 |
| Louisa | 3,069 | 61.28% | 1,648 | 32.91% | 291 | 5.81% | 5,008 |
| Lucas | 2,877 | 66.08% | 1,239 | 28.46% | 238 | 5.47% | 4,354 |
| Lyon | 5,192 | 81.42% | 920 | 14.43% | 265 | 4.16% | 6,377 |
| Madison | 5,360 | 62.07% | 2,678 | 31.01% | 598 | 6.92% | 8,636 |
| Mahaska | 7,432 | 69.90% | 2,619 | 24.63% | 581 | 5.46% | 10,632 |
| Marion | 10,962 | 61.53% | 5,482 | 30.77% | 1,372 | 7.70% | 17,816 |
| Marshall | 9,146 | 50.87% | 7,652 | 42.56% | 1,182 | 6.57% | 17,980 |
| Mills | 5,067 | 65.82% | 2,090 | 27.15% | 541 | 7.03% | 7,698 |
| Mitchell | 3,190 | 58.89% | 1,888 | 34.85% | 339 | 6.26% | 5,417 |
| Monona | 3,120 | 68.24% | 1,247 | 27.27% | 205 | 4.48% | 4,572 |
| Monroe | 2,638 | 68.25% | 1,056 | 27.32% | 171 | 4.42% | 3,865 |
| Montgomery | 3,436 | 68.12% | 1,314 | 26.05% | 294 | 5.83% | 5,044 |
| Muscatine | 9,584 | 49.32% | 8,368 | 43.06% | 1,482 | 7.63% | 19,434 |
| O'Brien | 5,752 | 77.67% | 1,315 | 17.76% | 339 | 4.58% | 7,406 |
| Osceola | 2,531 | 78.77% | 552 | 17.18% | 130 | 4.05% | 3,213 |
| Page | 4,893 | 69.46% | 1,807 | 25.65% | 344 | 4.88% | 7,044 |
| Palo Alto | 3,081 | 65.51% | 1,398 | 29.73% | 224 | 4.76% | 4,703 |
| Plymouth | 9,680 | 73.39% | 2,885 | 21.87% | 625 | 4.74% | 13,190 |
| Pocahontas | 2,702 | 69.91% | 963 | 24.92% | 200 | 5.17% | 3,865 |
| Polk | 93,492 | 40.38% | 119,804 | 51.74% | 18,259 | 7.89% | 231,555 |
| Pottawattamie | 24,447 | 57.28% | 15,355 | 35.98% | 2,878 | 6.74% | 42,680 |
| Poweshiek | 4,946 | 50.30% | 4,304 | 43.77% | 583 | 5.93% | 9,833 |
| Ringgold | 1,824 | 67.38% | 753 | 27.82% | 130 | 4.80% | 2,707 |
| Sac | 3,703 | 71.05% | 1,270 | 24.37% | 239 | 4.59% | 5,212 |
| Scott | 39,149 | 45.41% | 40,440 | 46.90% | 6,631 | 7.69% | 86,220 |
| Shelby | 4,362 | 68.48% | 1,662 | 26.09% | 346 | 5.43% | 6,370 |
| Sioux | 14,785 | 81.26% | 2,300 | 12.64% | 1,109 | 6.10% | 18,194 |
| Story | 19,458 | 38.40% | 25,709 | 50.74% | 5,500 | 10.86% | 50,667 |
| Tama | 4,971 | 56.80% | 3,196 | 36.52% | 585 | 6.68% | 8,752 |
| Taylor | 2,111 | 69.69% | 758 | 25.02% | 160 | 5.28% | 3,029 |
| Union | 3,525 | 60.44% | 1,922 | 32.96% | 385 | 6.60% | 5,832 |
| Van Buren | 2,527 | 70.96% | 845 | 23.73% | 189 | 5.31% | 3,561 |
| Wapello | 8,715 | 57.53% | 5,594 | 36.93% | 840 | 5.54% | 15,149 |
| Warren | 14,814 | 54.26% | 10,411 | 38.14% | 2,075 | 7.60% | 27,300 |
| Washington | 6,173 | 56.48% | 3,943 | 36.08% | 813 | 7.44% | 10,929 |
| Wayne | 2,069 | 70.37% | 719 | 24.46% | 152 | 5.17% | 2,940 |
| Webster | 10,056 | 57.69% | 6,305 | 36.17% | 1,069 | 6.13% | 17,430 |
| Winnebago | 3,447 | 59.56% | 1,931 | 33.37% | 409 | 7.07% | 5,787 |
| Winneshiek | 5,344 | 47.03% | 5,254 | 46.24% | 764 | 6.72% | 11,362 |
| Woodbury | 24,727 | 56.56% | 16,210 | 37.08% | 2,781 | 6.36% | 43,718 |
| Worth | 2,453 | 57.62% | 1,530 | 35.94% | 274 | 6.44% | 4,257 |
| Wright | 3,800 | 63.06% | 1,896 | 31.46% | 330 | 5.48% | 6,026 |
| Iowa Total | 800,983 | 51.15% | 653,669 | 41.74% | 111,379 | 7.11% | 1,566,031 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Allamakee (largest city: Waukon)
- Boone (largest city: Boone)
- Bremer (largest city: Waverly)
- Buchanan (largest city: Independence)
- Cedar (largest city: Tipton)
- Cerro Gordo (largest city: Mason City)
- Chickasaw (largest city: New Hampton)
- Clarke (largest city: Osceola)
- Clayton (largest city: Guttenberg)
- Clinton (largest city: Clinton)
- Des Moines (largest city: Burlington)
- Dubuque (largest city: Dubuque)
- Fayette (largest city: Oelwein)
- Floyd (largest city: Charles City)
- Howard (largest city: Cresco)
- Jackson (largest city: Maquoketa)
- Jasper (largest city: Newton)
- Jefferson (largest city: Fairfield)
- Jones (largest city: Anamosa)
- Lee (largest city: Fort Madison)
- Louisa (largest city: Wapello)
- Marshall (largest city: Marshalltown)
- Mitchell (largest city: Osage)
- Muscatine (largest city: Muscatine)
- Poweshiek (largest city: Grinnell)
- Tama (largest city: Tama)
- Union (largest city: Creston)
- Wapello (largest city: Ottumwa)
- Webster (largest city: Fort Dodge)
- Winneshiek (largest city: Decorah)
- Woodbury (largest city: Sioux City)
- Worth (largest city: Northwood)
By congressional district
Trump won all 4 of the congressional districts.[21]
| District | Trump | Clinton | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 48% | 45% | Rod Blum |
| 2nd | 49% | 44% | Dave Loebsack |
| 3rd | 48% | 45% | David Young |
| 4th | 60% | 33% | Steve King |
See also
| Elections in Iowa |
|---|
|
|
State government |
References
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
- "Iowa Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". Retrieved November 10, 2016.
- "Donald Trump wins Iowa on a wave of popular discontent". Des Moines Register. Retrieved 2017-01-16.
- Bash, Dana; Crutchfield, Abigail. "Can Trump turn Iowa red?". CNN. Retrieved 2017-01-16.
- "Dozens Of Iowa Counties Flipped Red For Trump in 2016. Will They Stand By Him In 2020?". www.wbur.org. Retrieved 2020-09-01.
- "United States House of Representatives floor summary for Jan 8, 2009". Clerk.house.gov. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2009.
- "Federal elections 2008" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
- "President Map". The New York Times. November 29, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
- "Election Other – President Obama Job Approval". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved December 24, 2015.
- Byrnes, Jesse (2016-06-15). "Poll: Obama approval rating highest since 2012". TheHill. Retrieved 2016-06-19.
- Cohn, Nate (2015-01-19). "What a Rise in Obama's Approval Rating Means for 2016". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2016-06-19.
- "Joe Biden Decides Not to Enter Presidential Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
- https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton-5597.html#polls
- https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton-5597.html#polls
- Chalian, David (4 November 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved 10 February 2019.
- "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. 7 November 2016. Retrieved 10 February 2019.
- "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 10 February 2019.
- Todd, Chuck (7 November 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved 10 February 2019.
- "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 10 February 2019.
- Sabato, Larry (7 November 2016). "The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved 10 February 2019.
- http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
