2020 United States Senate election in Iowa

The 2020 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primaries were held on June 2.[1] Most experts and pollsters considered this race as well as the presidential race as a tossup, but both Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Ernst won a larger margin than expected.

Not to be confused with 2020 Iowa Senate election.
2020 United States Senate election in Iowa
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Joni Ernst Theresa Greenfield
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 864,997 754,859
Percentage 51.8% 45.2%
County results
Ernst:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Greenfield:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Joni Ernst
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Joni Ernst
Republican

Elections in Iowa
Federal government
Presidential elections
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Democratic
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2008
2012
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2020
Republican
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2008
2012
2016
2020
United States Senate elections
United States House elections
State government
General elections
Gubernatorial elections
Iowa Senate elections
Iowa House elections
Iowa special elections
Des Moines
Mayoral elections

Republican primary

Nominee

Withdrawn

Endorsements
Joni Ernst
Organizations

Results
Republican primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Joni Ernst (incumbent) 226,589 98.64%
Republican Write-In 3,132 1.36%
Total votes 229,721 100.00%

Democratic primary

On June 2, 2020, Theresa Greenfield won the Democratic primary with 47.71% of the vote, defeating three other major candidates, including Michael T. Franken, a retired U.S. Navy admiral and former aide to U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy.[9][10][11][12][13]

Greenfield grew up on a small farm where her family raised raised crops and hogs.[14] She took courses at Iowa Lakes Community College and Iowa State University before graduating from Minnesota State University, Mankato in 1987 with a bachelor's degree in design and human environment.[15] At 24 years old, Greenfield's husband, an electrician, was killed in a work accident.[16][17] She has credited Social Security, workers' compensation, and family support with helping her through that period, during which she was caring for a one-year-old son and pregnant with a child born five months later.[17][18][19][20]

In 2005, Greenfield took a position at the homebuilding company Rottlund Homes, where she was named president of the Iowa division in 2007.[21] In 2012, Greenfield became president of the Des Moines commercial real estate firm Colby Interests,[22] based in Windsor Heights, Iowa.[20]

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn
  • Cal Woods, journalist and U.S. Navy veteran[28][29][30] (endorsed Michael T. Franken) (remained on ballot)

Declined

Debates
Host

network

 Date Link(s) Participants
Theresa

Greenfield

 Michael

D. Franken

 Kimberly

Graham

 Eddie

Mauro

Iowa PBS May 18, 2020 [45] Present Present Present Present

Endorsements
Michael Franken
Federal officials
  • Chuck Hagel, former U.S. Secretary of Defense (2013-2015) and U.S. Senator from Nebraska (1997-2009)[46] (Republican)
Kimberly Graham
Individuals
Organizations
Theresa Greenfield
Federal officials
State officials
Individuals
Unions
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Michael
Franken		 Kimberly
Graham		 Theresa
Greenfield		 Eddie
Mauro		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 5–6, 2020 849 (V) – 12% 4% 43% 4% 36%
Emerson College October 13–16, 2019 317 (LV) ± 5.5% 6% 4% 11% 6% 74%

Results
County results
Results by county:
  Greenfield—70–80%
  Greenfield—60–70%
  Greenfield—50–60%
  Greenfield—40–50%
  Greenfield—<40%
  Franken—<40%
Democratic primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Theresa Greenfield 132,001 47.71%
Democratic Michael T. Franken 68,851 24.88%
Democratic Kimberly Graham 41,554 15.02%
Democratic Eddie Mauro 30,400 10.99%
Democratic Cal Woods (withdrawn) 3,372 1.21%
Democratic Write-In 514 0.19%
Total votes 276,692 100.00%

Other candidates
Rick Stewart, the Libertarian nominee

Nominee

Declared
  • Suzanne Herzog, economist and former ER nurse[64]

General election

Major media described the campaign as one of the most likely to decide control of the Senate after the 2020 election.[65][66] Polls conducted after the primary showed a close contest between Greenfield and Ernst, with neither candidate leading by more than 4 points.[67][68][69][70] As of September 5, 2020, political handicappers The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rated the race as a toss-up.[71][72]

Through June 2020, Greenfield had raised $11.5 million, compared to $14.6 million for Ernst but by September, Greenfield had pulled ahead, raising $40.0 million compared to $21.6 million for Ernst.[73][74][75] The race was expected to be the most expensive in the state's history,[76] and the second most expensive Senate race in the United States, after the 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina, where Cal Cunningham challenged Thom Tillis.[77]

On October 17, the Des Moines Register endorsed Greenfield.[78]

Debate
Host Date & Time Link(s) Participants
Joni Ernst (R) Theresa Greenfield (D)
Iowa Press Debates September 28, 2020 [79] Present Present

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[80] Tossup October 13, 2020
Inside Elections[81] Tossup October 16, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[82] Lean R November 2, 2020
Politico[83] Tossup October 12, 2020
RCP[84] Tossup October 7, 2020
Niskanen[85] Tossup October 13, 2020
DDHQ[86] Tossup October 14, 2020
538[87] Tossup October 18, 2020

Endorsements
Joni Ernst (R)
Organizations
Theresa Greenfield (D)
Federal officials
State and local officials
Individuals
Unions
Newspapers
Organizations

Graphical summary

Aggregate polling
Theresa Greenfield vs. Joni Ernst
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Theresa Greenfield Joni Ernst Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 2] Margin
Real Clear Politics October 15, 2020 October 27, 2020 45.3% 47.3% 7.1% Ernst +2.0
270 to Win October 7, 2020 October 29, 2020 46.0%

47%

 7.8% Ernst +1.0
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joni
Ernst (R)		 Theresa
Greenfield (D)		 Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 1–2, 2020 871 (V) – 47% 48% 5%
Change Research October 29 – November 1, 2020 1,084 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 48% 4%[lower-alpha 3]
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 29 – November 1, 2020 853 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 50% 2%[lower-alpha 4]
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 951 (LV) ± 3.2% 45% 49% 6%[lower-alpha 5]
Emerson College October 29–31, 2020 604 (LV) ± 3.9% 48%[lower-alpha 6] 51% 2%[lower-alpha 7]
InsiderAdvantage (R)[upper-alpha 1] October 30, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 45% 4%[lower-alpha 8]
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register October 26–29, 2020 814 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 42% 11%[lower-alpha 9]
Quinnipiac University October 23–27, 2020 1,225 (LV) ± 2.8% 48% 46% 1%[lower-alpha 10]
RABA Research October 21–24, 2020 693 (LV) ± 4% 45% 51% –
Emerson College October 19–21, 2020 435 (LV) ± 4.7% 51%[lower-alpha 11] 46% 3%[lower-alpha 12]
RMG Research October 15–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 43%[lower-alpha 13] 46% 10%[lower-alpha 14]
41%[lower-alpha 15] 48% 10%[lower-alpha 16]
45%[lower-alpha 17] 45% 10%[lower-alpha 18]
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 18–20, 2020 753 (LV) ± 3.9% 45% 44% 12%[lower-alpha 19]
Insider Advantage (R)[upper-alpha 1] October 18–19, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 48% 8%[lower-alpha 20]
Monmouth University October 15–19, 2020 501 (RV) ± 4.4% 47% 47% 5%[lower-alpha 21]
501 (LV)[lower-alpha 22] 47% 49% –
501 (LV)[lower-alpha 23] 45% 51% –
Data for Progress (D) October 8–11, 2020 822 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 47% 10%[lower-alpha 24]
YouGov/CBS October 6–9, 2020 1,022 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 47% 10%[lower-alpha 25]
Opinion Insight (R)[upper-alpha 2] October 5–8, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 47%[lower-alpha 26] 45% 8%[lower-alpha 27]
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 3–6, 2020 756 (LV) ± 3.9% 46% 49% 6%[lower-alpha 28]
Quinnipiac University October 1–5, 2020 1,205 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 50% 5%[lower-alpha 29]
Data for Progress (D) September 23–28, 2020 743 (LV) ± 3.6% 42%[lower-alpha 30] 44% 14%[lower-alpha 31]
45%[lower-alpha 32] 46% 9%[lower-alpha 33]
Hart Research Associates (D)[upper-alpha 3] September 24–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 48% –
RABA Research September 23–26, 2020 780 (LV) ± 4% 39% 51% –
Monmouth University September 18–22, 2020 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 47% 47% 5%[lower-alpha 34]
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 22] 46% 49% 5%[lower-alpha 35]
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 23] 47% 48% 5%[lower-alpha 36]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 16–22, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.99% 40% 42% 19%[lower-alpha 37]
Selzer/Des Moines Register September 14–17, 2020 658 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 45% 12%[lower-alpha 38]
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[upper-alpha 4] August 30 – September 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 45% 5%[lower-alpha 39]
Opinion Insight (R)[upper-alpha 2] August 30 – September 2, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 49%[lower-alpha 40] 43% 7%[lower-alpha 41]
Public Policy Polling August 13–14, 2020 729 (V) ± 4.1% 45% 48% 8%[lower-alpha 42]
Monmouth University July 30 – August 3, 2020 401 (RV) ± 4.9% 48% 45% 6%[lower-alpha 43]
401 (LV)[lower-alpha 22] 48% 47% 6%[lower-alpha 44]
401 (LV)[lower-alpha 23] 48% 47% 5%[lower-alpha 45]
Data for Progress July 24 – August 2, 2020 1,101 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 45% 11%[lower-alpha 46]
RMG Research July 27–30, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 36% 40% 24%[lower-alpha 47]
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 5] July 11–16, 2020 701 (LV) ± 3.7% 43% 45% 12%[lower-alpha 48]
GQR Research (D)[upper-alpha 6] June 23–28, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 49% 4%
Selzer/Des Moines Register June 7–10, 2020 674 (LV) ± 3.8% 43% 46% 11%
Civiqs/Daily Kos June 6–8, 2020 865 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 48% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 7] June 3–4, 2020 963 (V) ± 3.4% 43% 45% 12%
Public Policy Polling April 30 – May 1, 2020 1,222 (V) ± 2.8% 43% 42% 14%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 6] December 13–15, 2019 944 (V) ± 3.4% 47% 41% 12%
Emerson College October 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 40% 14%
Lake Research Partners (D)[upper-alpha 8] April 24–29, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 56% 34% –
Hypothetical polling
with Eddie Mauro
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joni
Ernst (R)		 Eddie
Mauro (D)		 Undecided
RABA Research/Eddie Mauro[lower-alpha 49] May 7–9, 2020 632 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 42% –
Lake Research Partners (D)[upper-alpha 8] April 24–29, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 58%[lower-alpha 50] 33% –
49%[lower-alpha 51] 44% –
with Joni Ernst and generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joni
Ernst (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 29–30, 2019 780 (V) ± 3.5% 48% 44% –
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 9] June 30 – July 1, 2017 784 (V) ± 3.6% 48% 41% 12%
with Joni Ernst and Generic Opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joni
Ernst (R)		 Generic
Opponent		 Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. March 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 31% 3%[lower-alpha 52] 26%[lower-alpha 53]
with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
Lake Research Partners (D)[upper-alpha 8] April 24–29, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 41% –

Results
United States Senate election in Iowa, 2020[108]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Joni Ernst (incumbent) 864,997 51.74% -0.36%
Democratic Theresa Greenfield 754,859 45.15% +1.39%
Libertarian Rick Stewart 36,961 2.21% +1.48%
Independent Suzanne Herzog 13,800 0.83% N/A
Write-in 1,211 0.07% -0.03%
Total votes 1,671,828 100.0%
Republican hold

See also

Notes
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by The Center for American Greatness, a pro-Trump organization.
  2. Poll sponsored by The American Action Forum, which is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates.
  3. Poll sponsored by The Human Rights Campaign, which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
  4. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  5. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  6. Poll sponsored by the End Citizens United, which has only supported Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United Supreme Court ruling.
  7. Poll sponsored by Emily's List, an organization that supports Democratic female candidates.
  8. Poll sponsored by the Eddie Mauro campaign
  9. Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
Voter samples
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Stewart (L) with 2%; "Don't recall" with 1%; Herzog (I) and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 1%
  4. Stewart (L) with 1%; Herzog (I) and "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 1%
  5. Herzog (I) with 3%; Stewart (L) with 2%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  6. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. "Someone else" with 2%
  8. Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  9. "Refused" with 4%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/do not remember" with 3%
  10. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  11. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  12. "Someone else" with 3%
  13. Standard VI response
  14. "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  15. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  16. "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  17. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  18. "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  19. Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 2%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  20. Stewart (L) with 5%; Herzog (I) with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  21. Herzog (I), "No one" and Stewart (L) with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  22. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  23. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  24. Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  25. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 8%
  26. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  27. Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 4%
  28. Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  29. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  30. Standard VI response
  31. Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 1%; Undecided with 12%
  32. If the only candidates were Ernst and Greenfield
  33. Undecided with 9%
  34. Stewart (L) with 1%; Herzog (I), "Other" and "No one" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  35. Stewart (L) with 1; Herzog (I) with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  36. Stewart (L) with 1; Herzog (I) with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  37. Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 14%
  38. "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 7%
  39. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  40. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  41. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  42. Undecided with 8%
  43. Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  44. Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  45. Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  46. "No one" with 11%
  47. Undecided with 24%
  48. "Another candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 7%
  49. Poll sponsored by Mauro's campaign
  50. Standard VI response
  51. Response after pollster addresses respondents with talking points about Ernst and Mauro
  52. Would not vote with 3%
  53. "Would consider voting for someone else" with 20%; "unsure" with 6%

References
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