2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the four U.S. Representatives from the state of Iowa, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa

November 3, 2020

All 4 Iowa seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Last election 1 3
Seats won 3 1
Seat change 2 2
Popular vote 859,418 762,271
Percentage 52.42% 46.5%
Swing 5.88% 4.02%

Results:
      Democratic hold       Republican hold
     Republican gain

Overview

PartyCandi-
dates
VotesSeats
No.%No.+/–%
Republican Party4859,41852.42%3 275.00%
Democratic Party4762,27146.5%1 225.00%
Libertarian Party115,3610.94%00.00%
Write-in2,4130.15%00.00%
Total91,639,463100.0%4100.00%
Popular vote
Republican
52.42%
Democratic
46.5%
Other
1.09%
House seats
Republican
75.00%
Democratic
25.00%

By district

District Republican Democratic Others Total Result
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1Republican gain
District 2Republican gain
District 3Democratic hold
District 4Republican hold
Total

District 1

The 1st district is based in northeastern Iowa, and includes the cities of Dubuque, Cedar Rapids and Waterloo. The incumbent is Democrat Abby Finkenauer, who flipped the district and was elected with 51.0% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Nominee

Endorsements

Abby Finkenauer
Former US Executive Branch Officials
  • Barack Obama, former President of the United States (2009-2017, former Senator from Illinois (2005-2008)[3]
Organizations

Results

2020 Iowa's 1st congressional district Democratic primary results by county:
Democratic primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Abby Finkenauer (incumbent) 72,474 99.3
Write-in 482 0.7
Total votes 72,956 100.0
Nominee
Defeated in primary
  • Thomas Hansen, farmer and businessman[13]
Declined

Endorsements

Ashley Hinson
State and local Politicians
Organizations

Results

2020 Iowa's 1st congressional district Republican primary results by county:
Republican primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ashley Hinson 38,552 77.8
Republican Thomas Hansen 10,845 21.9
Write-in 152 0.3
Total votes 49,549 100.0

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[18] Tossup October 8, 2020
Inside Elections[19] Lean D October 29, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] Lean D October 15, 2020
Politico[21] Tossup September 8, 2020
Daily Kos[22] Lean D October 15, 2020
RCP[23] Tossup October 13, 2020
Niskanen[24] Lean D July 26, 2020
The Economist[25] Likely D October 2, 2020

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Abby
Finkenauer (D)
Ashley
Hinson (R)
Other/
Undecided
Monmouth University October 15–20, 2020 352 (RV) ± 5.2% 52% 44% 4%[lower-alpha 2]
352 (LV)[lower-alpha 3] 54% 44%
352 (LV)[lower-alpha 4] 56% 42%
Basswood Research (R)[upper-alpha 1] September 26–28, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 45% 10%[lower-alpha 5]
Monmouth University July 25 – August 3, 2020 391 (RV) ± 5% 51% 41% 9%[lower-alpha 6]
391 (LV)[lower-alpha 3] 52% 41% 8%[lower-alpha 7]
391 (LV)[lower-alpha 4] 52% 40% 8%[lower-alpha 7]
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 2] March 3–5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 44%
Harper Polling (R)[upper-alpha 3] January 11–12, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.0% 44%[lower-alpha 8] 40% 15%
40%[lower-alpha 9] 48%
Hypothetical polling
Generic Democrat vs Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Other Undecided
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register October 26–29, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 10] ± 7.1% 36% 51% 9%[lower-alpha 11] 5%[lower-alpha 12]
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register September 14–17, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 13] ± 7.8% 47% 41%
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register June 7–10, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 14] <= ± 7.7% 48% 42%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 2] March 3–5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4% 37% 44%
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register March 2–5, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 15] 46% 49%
Harper Polling (R)[upper-alpha 3] January 11–12, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4% 43%[lower-alpha 8] 44%

Results

Iowa's 1st congressional district, 2020[26]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ashley Hinson 212,088 51.2
Democratic Abby Finkenauer (incumbent) 201,347 48.7
Write-in 434 0.1
Total votes 413,869 100.0
Republican gain from Democratic

District 2

The 2nd district encompasses southeastern Iowa, and is home to the cities of Davenport, Iowa City, Muscatine, Clinton, Burlington, Ottumwa, Fort Madison, Oskaloosa, Bettendorf, Newton and Pella. The incumbent is Democrat Dave Loebsack, who was re-elected with 54.8% of the vote in 2018.[1] On April 12, 2019, he announced that he would not seek re-election.[27]

Nominee
Withdrawn
  • Newman Abuissa, engineer[29]
Declined

Endorsements

Rita Hart
Former US Executive Branch Officials
  • Barack Obama, former President of the United States (2009-2017, former Senator from Illinois (2005-2008)[3]
Federal politicians
Statewide politicians
State Senators
State Representatives
Local politicians
Party officials

[42]

Individuals
  • Veronica Tessler, businesswoman[43]
Organizations

Results

2020 Iowa's 2nd congressional district Democratic primary results by county:
Democratic primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Rita Hart 67,039 99.6
Write-in 271 0.4
Total votes 67,310 100.0
Nominee
Defeated in primary
Withdrawn
Declined

Endorsements

Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Statewide politicians
Organizations
Bobby Schilling
Federal politicians

Results

2020 Iowa's 2nd congressional district Republican primary results by county:
Republican primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks 23,052 47.6
Republican Bobby Schilling 17,582 36.3
Republican Steven Everly 2,806 5.8
Republican Rick Phillips 2,444 5.1
Republican Tim Borchardt 2,370 4.9
Write-in 161 0.3
Total votes 48,415 100.0

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[18] Tossup October 8, 2020
Inside Elections[19] Lean D October 29, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] Lean D October 15, 2020
Politico[21] Tossup September 8, 2020
Daily Kos[22] Lean D September 25, 2020
RCP[23] Tossup October 13, 2020
Niskanen[24] Likely D July 26, 2020
The Economist[25] Likely D October 2, 2020

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Rita
Hart (D)
Mariannette
Miller-Meeks (R)
Other/
Undecided
Monmouth University October 15–20, 2020 355 (RV) ± 5.2% 49% 43% 8%[lower-alpha 16]
355 (LV)[lower-alpha 3] 51% 42%
355 (LV)[lower-alpha 4] 54% 41%
Monmouth University July 25 – August 3, 2020 374 (RV) ± 5.1% 47% 44% 9%[lower-alpha 6]
374 (LV)[lower-alpha 3] 44% 48% 8%[lower-alpha 7]
374 (LV)[lower-alpha 4] 45% 48% 7%[lower-alpha 17]
Harper Polling (R)[upper-alpha 4] July 26–28, 2020 406 (LV) ± 4.9% 41% 41% 16%
Hypothetical polling
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Other Undecided
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register October 26–29, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 10] ± 6.9% 40% 41% 11%[lower-alpha 18] 8%[lower-alpha 12]
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register September 14–17, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 19] ± 8.7% 50% 46%
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register June 7–10, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 20] <= ± 7.7% 53% 35%
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register March 2–5, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 21] 41% 49%

Results

Iowa's 2nd congressional district, 2020[26]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks 196,964 49.912
Democratic Rita Hart 196,958 49.910
Write-in 703 0.178
Total votes 394,625 100.0

Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks was state-certified as the winner over Democrat Rita Hart on November 30 by an extremely narrow margin of 6 votes.[65] On December 2, Hart announced that she would contest the election with the House Administration Committee under the 1969 Federal Contested Elections Act.[66] On December 30th, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced Miller-Meeks would be seated provisionally on January 3rd, 2021 with the rest of the incoming new Congress members.[67]

District 3

The 3rd district encompasses southwestern Iowa, stretching from Des Moines to the state's borders with Nebraska and Missouri. The incumbent is Democrat Cindy Axne, who flipped the district and was elected with 49.3% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Nominee

Results

2020 Iowa's 3rd congressional district Democratic primary results by county:
Democratic primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Cindy Axne (incumbent) 76,681 99.2
Write-in 623 0.8
Total votes 77,304 100.0
Nominee
Defeated in primary
  • Bill Schafer, U.S. Army veteran[69]
Declined

Results

2020 Iowa's 3rd congressional district Republican primary results by county:
Republican primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Young 39,103 69.5
Republican Bill Schafer 16,904 30.1
Write-in 227 0.4
Total votes 56,234 100.0

Candidates

  • Bryan Jack Holder (Libertarian)[73]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[18] Lean D October 8, 2020
Inside Elections[19] Lean D October 16, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] Lean D October 15, 2020
Politico[21] Lean D November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[22] Lean D October 15, 2020
RCP[23] Tossup October 13, 2020
Niskanen[24] Lean D July 26, 2020
The Economist[25] Lean D October 2, 2020

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Cindy
Axne (D)
David
Young (R)
Bryan
Holder (L)
Other/
Undecided
Monmouth University October 15–20, 2020 426 (RV) ± 4.8% 52% 43% 2%[lower-alpha 22]
426 (LV)[lower-alpha 3] 53% 42%
426 (LV)[lower-alpha 4] 55% 41%
Monmouth University July 25 – August 3, 2020 507 (RV) ± 4.4% 48% 42% 2% 8%[lower-alpha 16]
507 (LV)[lower-alpha 3] 50% 42% 8%[lower-alpha 23]
507 (LV)[lower-alpha 4] 52% 41% 7%[lower-alpha 24]
The Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 2] July 7–9, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 44% 6% 7%[lower-alpha 25]
The Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 2] March 10–12, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 48% 5%[lower-alpha 26]
Hypothetical polling
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Other Undecided
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register October 26–29, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 10] ± 6.6% 45% 39% 8%[lower-alpha 27] 9%[lower-alpha 12]
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register September 14–17, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 28] ± 7.7% 48% 42%
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register June 7–10, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 29] <= ± 7.7% 52% 36%
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register March 2–5, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 30] 42% 43%

Results

Iowa's 3rd congressional district, 2020[26]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Cindy Axne (incumbent) 219,205 48.9
Republican David Young 212,997 47.6
Libertarian Bryan Jack Holder 15,361 3.4
Write-in 384 0.1
Total votes 447,947 100.0
Democratic hold

District 4

The 4th district is based in northwestern Iowa, including Sioux City, Ames, Mason City, Fort Dodge, Boone and Carroll. The incumbent is Republican Steve King, who was re-elected with 50.3% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Nominee
Defeated in primary
Declined

Endorsements

Randy Feenstra
State Senators
State Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Steve King
State Representatives
Individuals
  • Sam Clovis, national co-chair of Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, candidate for State Treasurer of Iowa in 2014[93]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Steve
King
Randy
Feenstra
Steve
Reeder
Jeremy
Taylor
Other Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 5] May 16–18, 2020 400 (V) ± 4.9% 39% 41% 1% 4% 3%[upper-alpha 6]
41%[lower-alpha 31] 48%
American Viewpoint[upper-alpha 7] May 7–8, 2020 350 (LV) ± 5.2% 39% 36% 9%[lower-alpha 32] 10%
American Viewpoint[upper-alpha 7] April 27–29, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 41% 34% 8%[lower-alpha 33] 15%
American Viewpoint[upper-alpha 7] January 27–29, 2020 – (V)[lower-alpha 10] 53% 22% [lower-alpha 10]
G1 Survey Research October 1–3, 2019 400 (LV) ± 4.89% 59% 15% 6% 0% 2%[lower-alpha 34] 17%
64%[lower-alpha 35] 24% 12%[lower-alpha 36]
64%[lower-alpha 35] 19% 17%[lower-alpha 37]

Results

2020 Iowa's 4th congressional district Republican primary results by county:
Republican primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Randy Feenstra 37,329 45.5
Republican Steve King (incumbent) 29,366 35.9
Republican Jeremy Taylor 6,418 7.8
Republican Bret Richards 6,140 7.5
Republican Steve Reeder 2,528 3.1
Write-in 176 0.2
Total votes 81,957 100.0
Nominee

Endorsements

J.D. Scholten

Results

2020 Iowa's 4th congressional district Democratic primary results by county:
Democratic primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic J. D. Scholten 46,370 99.6
Write-in 166 0.4
Total votes 46,536 100.0

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[18] Safe R October 8, 2020
Inside Elections[19] Safe R October 16, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] Safe R October 15, 2020
Politico[95] Likely R November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[22] Safe R October 15, 2020
RCP[23] Lean R October 13, 2020
Niskanen[24] Likely R July 26, 2020
The Economist[25] Likely R October 2, 2020

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Randy
Feenstra (R)
J.D.
Scholten (D)
Other/
Undecided
Monmouth University October 15–20, 2020 414 (RV) ± 4.8% 48% 42% 10%[lower-alpha 38]
414 (LV)[lower-alpha 3] 48% 43%
414 (LV)[lower-alpha 4] 47% 44%
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 8] October 13–15, 2020 603 (LV) ± 4% 50% 45%
American Viewpoint (R)[upper-alpha 7] October 6–8, 2020 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 54% 31% 11%[lower-alpha 39]
Monmouth University July 25 – August 3, 2020 374 (RV) ± 5.1% 54% 34% 12%[lower-alpha 40]
374 (LV)[lower-alpha 3] 55% 34% 10%[lower-alpha 41]
374 (LV)[lower-alpha 4] 56% 33% 10%[lower-alpha 41]
Hypothetical polling
with Steve King and J.D. Scholten
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Steve
King (R)
J.D.
Scholten (D)
Undecided
20/20 Insight (D)[upper-alpha 9] January 16–17, 2019 472 (LV) ± 4.5% 39% 44% 17%
with Steve King and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Steve
King (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
20/20 Insight (D)[upper-alpha 9] January 16–17, 2019 472 (LV) ± 4.5% 37% 45% 18%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Other Undecided
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register October 26–29, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 10] ± 6.9% 50% 33% 10%[lower-alpha 42] 8%[lower-alpha 12]
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register September 14–17, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 43] ± 7.5% 49% 44%
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register June 7–10, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 44] <= ± 7.7% 57% 35%
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register March 2–5, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 45] 51% 40%

Results

Iowa's 4th congressional district, 2020[26]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Randy Feenstra 237,369 62.0
Democratic J. D. Scholten 144,761 37.8
Write-in 892 0.2
Total votes 383,022 100.0
Republican hold

See also

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "No one" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  3. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  4. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  5. Undecided with 10%
  6. "Other/none" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  7. "Other/none" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  8. Standard VI response
  9. Response after pollster addresses respondents with message testing
  10. Not yet released
  11. "Refused" with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  12. Includes "Do not remember"
  13. Not yet released; IA-01 subsample of statewide sample of 658
  14. Not yet released; IA-01 subsample of statewide sample of 674
  15. Not yet released; IA-01 subsample of statewide sample of 667
  16. "Other" and "No one" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  17. "Other/none" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  18. "Refused" with 5%; "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  19. Not yet released; IA-02 subsample of statewide sample of 658
  20. Not yet released; IA-02 subsample of statewide sample of 674
  21. Not yet released; IA-02 subsample of statewide sample of 667
  22. "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  23. "Holder (L)/Other" with 3%; Undecided with 5%
  24. "Holder (L)/Other" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
  25. Undecided with 7%
  26. Undecided with 5%
  27. "Refused" with 4%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  28. Not yet released; IA-03 subsample of statewide sample of 658
  29. Not yet released; IA-03 subsample of statewide sample of 674
  30. Not yet released; IA-03 subsample of statewide sample of 667
  31. If only King and Feenstra were candidates
  32. "Another candidate" with 9%
  33. "Another candidate" with 8%
  34. Bret Richards with 2%
  35. If respondents had to choose between the two candidates for which percentages are listed
  36. "Undecided/don't know/refused" with 12%
  37. "Undecided/don't know/refused" with 17%
  38. "Other" and "No one" with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  39. Undecided with 11%
  40. "Other/none" with 4%; Undecided with 8%
  41. "Other/none" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  42. "Refused" with 4%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 3%
  43. Not yet released; IA-04 subsample of statewide sample of 658
  44. Not yet released; IA-04 subsample of statewide sample of 674
  45. Not yet released; IA-04 subsample of statewide sample of 667
Partisan clients
  1. This poll's sponsor, the Congressional Leadership Fund, had endorsed Hinson prior to the poll's sampling period.
  2. This poll was sponsored by the NRCC
  3. The Future Leaders Fund is a pro-Republican PAC
  4. Poll conducted for the Congressional Leadership Fund.
  5. American Future Fund is a PAC supporting Randy Feenstra
  6. Richards with 3%
  7. Poll sponsored by Feenstra's campaign
  8. Poll sponsored by Scholten's campaign.
  9. Poll sponsored by Majority Rules PAC

References

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  34. Watson, Sarah (May 3, 2019). "Iowa City business owner Veronica Tessler won't run for Congress". The Daily Iowan. Retrieved May 3, 2019.
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  42. "Long List Of Prominent IA-02 Dems Endorse Rita Hart". Iowa Starting Line. May 22, 2019.
  43. Smith, Zachary Oren (July 10, 2019). "Former challenger Tessler endorses Rita Hart in 2nd Congressional race". Iowa City Press-Citizen.
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Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates
Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates
Official campaign websites for 4th district candidates
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