2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico
The 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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 County Results
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| Elections in New Mexico |
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New Mexico was won by Biden by a 10.79% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations making election predictions considered New Mexico as a safe blue state. The state used to be quite competitive, voting for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 with a margin of only 366 votes and Republican George W. Bush in 2004 by 5,988 votes. However, the Land of Enchantment has become a safe blue state since then as Democrats have relied on Hispanic and Native American voters to deliver victories.[3] Biden scored victories in all of the state's largest counties: Bernalillo, Doña Ana, and Santa Fe counties, home to Albuquerque, Las Cruces, and Santa Fe, respectively; all of them voted for Biden in margins greater than ten points.[4] Aggregate polling correctly showed Biden being up by double-digits in the state.[5][6]
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, much of Biden's strength in New Mexico came from Latino voters, from whom he garnered 61% of the vote. These included 54% of Latinos of Mexican heritage and 70% of Spanish-Americans. Biden also carried a plurality of Caucasian/white voters in the state (49% to Trump's 48%).[7] He also won over Native Americans, garnering 60–90% of the vote.[8][9] 53% of voters believed the Trump administration was doing too little to help Native American reservations in New Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic, and these voters broke for Biden by 75%–23%.
On the other hand, Trump increased his popular vote percentage by 3.46%, earning 43.5% of the vote share and over 400,000 votes in total. Much of this improvement could be attributed to the fact that the Libertarian Party nominee in 2016 had been former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who earned 9.34% of the vote in his home state; Johnson did not run in 2020. That said, Trump's 43.5% represented not only an improvement on his own vote share in 2016, but also on those of future Utah Senator Mitt Romney in 2012 (42.84%) and Arizona Senator John McCain in 2008 (41.78%). This was the first election since 1968 in which New Mexico voted more Republican than neighboring Colorado. Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Colfax County since New Mexico was granted statehood in 1912;[10] and this was the first election since 1948 in which Valencia County voted for the losing candidate.[11]
Primary elections
The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.
Republican primary
Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 22 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[12]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 144,067 | 91.25 | 22 |
| Uncommitted | 13,809 | 8.75 | 0 |
| Total | 157,876 | 100% | 22 |
Democratic primary
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[14] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 181,700 | 73.30% | 30 |
| Bernie Sanders (suspended) | 37,435 | 15.10% | 4 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 14,552 | 5.87% | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 4,026 | 1.62% | |
| Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 2,735 | 1.10% | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 971 | 0.39% | |
| Uncommitted | 6,461 | 2.61% | |
| Total | 247,880 | 100% | 34 |
Libertarian nominee
The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[15] | Solid D | November 3, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[16] | Solid D | November 3, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| Politico[18] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| RCP[19] | Lean D | November 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[20] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| CNN[21] | Solid D | November 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[22] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| CBS News[23] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| 270towin[24] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| ABC News[25] | Solid D | November 3, 2020 |
| NPR[26] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[27] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[28] | Solid D | November 3, 2020 |
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win | September 30 – October 29, 2020 | November 1, 2020 | 53.5% | 40.5% | 6.0% | Biden +13.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until October 31, 2020 | November 1, 2020 | 53.8% | 42.3% | 3.9% | Biden +11.5 |
| Average | 53.7% | 41.4% | 4.9% | Biden +12.3 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,481 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42%[lower-alpha 3] | 56% | - | - | – | – |
| Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal | Oct 23–29, 2020 | 1,180 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 54% | - | - | 3%[lower-alpha 4] | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 2,719 (LV) | – | 46% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| GBAO Strategies/Ben Ray Luján[upper-alpha 1] | Oct 14–17, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 54% | - | - | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report | Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 | 886 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 39% | 53% | 2% | - | 2%[lower-alpha 5] | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 1,015 (LV) | – | 44% | 54% | - | - | – | 1% |
| Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal | Aug 26 – Sep 2, 2020 | 1,123 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 39% | 54% | - | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 1,087 (LV) | – | 43% | 56% | - | - | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 904 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | - | - | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 506 (LV) | – | 50% | 49% | - | - | – | 1% |
| Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report | Jun 12–13, 2020 | 740 (V) | ± 3.6% | 39% | 53% | - | - | – | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling/The Majority Institute[upper-alpha 2] | Apr 20–21, 2020 | 1,091 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Emerson College | Jan 3–6, 2020 | 967 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 54% | - | - | – | – |
Former candidates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
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Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
501,614 | 54.29% | +6.03% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
401,894 | 43.50% | +3.46% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
12,585 | 1.36% | -7.98% | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
4,426 | 0.48% | -0.76% | |
| Constitution | Sheila "Samm" Tittle[lower-alpha 6] David Sandige |
1,806 | 0.20% | +0.01% | |
| Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman |
1,640 | 0.18% | +0.04% | |
| Write-in | 0 | 0.00% | ±0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 923,965 | 100.00% | |||
By county
| 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico by county[30] | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Total | ||||
| % | # | % | # | % | # | # | ||
| Bernalillo | 61.01% | 193,757 | 36.57% | 116,135 | 2.42% | 7,698 | 317,590 | |
| Catron | 25.58% | 595 | 73.00% | 1,698 | 1.42% | 33 | 2,326 | |
| Chaves | 28.43% | 6,381 | 69.76% | 15,656 | 1.81% | 406 | 22,443 | |
| Cibola | 53.30% | 4,745 | 44.65% | 3,975 | 2.05% | 139 | 8,903 | |
| Colfax | 43.40% | 2,611 | 54.37% | 3,271 | 2.23% | 134 | 6,016 | |
| Curry | 28.52% | 4,307 | 69.16% | 10,444 | 2.32% | 350 | 15,101 | |
| De Baca | 25.64% | 231 | 72.81% | 656 | 1.55% | 14 | 901 | |
| Doña Ana | 58.03% | 47,957 | 39.69% | 32,802 | 2.28% | 1,882 | 82,641 | |
| Eddy | 23.36% | 5,424 | 75.16% | 17,454 | 1.48% | 344 | 23,222 | |
| Grant | 52.58% | 7,590 | 45.4% | 6,553 | 2.02% | 292 | 14,435 | |
| Guadalupe | 56.37% | 1,234 | 41.89% | 917 | 1.74% | 38 | 2,189 | |
| Harding | 35.45% | 179 | 63.17% | 319 | 1.38% | 7 | 505 | |
| Hidalgo | 41.69% | 823 | 56.74% | 1,120 | 1.57% | 31 | 1,974 | |
| Lea | 19.41% | 4,061 | 79.03% | 16,531 | 1.56% | 326 | 20,918 | |
| Lincoln | 30.99% | 3,194 | 67.36% | 6,942 | 1.65% | 170 | 10,306 | |
| Los Alamos | 61.45% | 7,554 | 34.80% | 4,278 | 3.75% | 461 | 12,293 | |
| Luna | 43.97% | 3,563 | 54.40% | 4,408 | 1.63% | 132 | 8,103 | |
| McKinley | 68.07% | 18,029 | 29.45% | 7,801 | 2.48% | 656 | 26,486 | |
| Mora | 64.97% | 1,745 | 33.62% | 903 | 1.41% | 38 | 2,686 | |
| Otero | 36.00% | 8,485 | 61.60% | 14,521 | 2.40% | 565 | 23,571 | |
| Quay | 29.60% | 1,170 | 68.00% | 2,634 | 1.78% | 69 | 3,873 | |
| Rio Arriba | 66.09% | 10,990 | 24.25% | 5,408 | 1.38% | 230 | 16,628 | |
| Roosevelt | 27.27% | 1,802 | 70.13% | 4,634 | 2.60% | 172 | 6,608 | |
| Sandoval | 53.01% | 40,588 | 44.64% | 34,174 | 2.35% | 1,800 | 76,562 | |
| San Juan | 34.58% | 18,083 | 62.86% | 32,874 | 2.56% | 1,337 | 52,294 | |
| San Miguel | 68.41% | 7,888 | 29.66% | 3,421 | 1.93% | 222 | 11,531 | |
| Santa Fe | 76.05% | 62,530 | 22.29% | 18,329 | 1.66% | 1,368 | 82,227 | |
| Sierra | 38.10% | 2,265 | 59.58% | 3,542 | 2.32% | 138 | 5,945 | |
| Socorro | 51.98% | 3,722 | 45.46% | 3,255 | 1.86% | 133 | 7,160 | |
| Taos | 76.37% | 13,121 | 21.63% | 3,715 | 2.00% | 345 | 17,181 | |
| Torrance | 32.19% | 2,344 | 65.54% | 4,772 | 2.27% | 165 | 7,281 | |
| Union | 21.41% | 383 | 77.59% | 1,388 | 1.00% | 18 | 1,789 | |
| Valencia | 44.19% | 14,263 | 53.8% | 17,364 | 2.01% | 650 | 32,277 | |
| Totals | 54.29% | 501,614 | 43.50% | 401,894 | 2.21% | 20,457 | 923,965 | |
By congressional district
Biden won 2 out of 3 congressional districts.
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 37% | 60% | Deb Haaland |
| 2nd | 55% | 43% | Xochitl Torres Small |
| Yvette Herrell | |||
| 3rd | 40% | 58% | Ben Ray Luján |
| Teresa Leger Fernandez |
Aftermath
On December 14, 2020, the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit against the New Mexico Secretary of State over the use of ballot drop-boxes for the 2020 presidential election. However, on January 11, 2021, five days after Congress certified the results for Joe Biden, the campaign dropped the lawsuit. [31] Trump attorney Mark Caruso cited “events that have transpired since the inception of this lawsuit” in a three-page motion as the reason for dropping the lawsuit. Despite the withdrawal, the motion still allows for revisiting these concerns in the future. [32]
See also
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Other candidate" with 3%
- "other" with 2%
- The national Constitution Party nominated Don Blankenship for President with William Mohr as his running mate, but the New Mexico state party chose Tittle and Sandige.
- Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Ben Ray Luján's campaign for the 2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico
- This poll was sponsored by the Majority Institute, a communications firm which supports the Democratic Party
References
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- Silver, Nate (March 8, 2016). "Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
- "New Mexico Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
- "New Mexico 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump". 270toWin.com. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
- Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Koeze, Ella; Mehta, Dhrumhil; Mithani, Jasmine; Wolfe, Julia (November 21, 2020). "New Mexico President: General Election Polls". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
- "New Mexico Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- Caldera, Camille. "Fact check: There was strong Navajo support for Biden, but numbers cited in claim have changed". USA TODAY. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
- "Dzil Yizhiin stays true blue, defying national rural trend". Navajo Times. November 5, 2020. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- "The Political Graveyard: Colfax County, N.M." politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved December 17, 2020.
- Chief, Dan Boyd | Journal Capitol Bureau. "Valencia County's 17 presidential elections streak comes to an end". www.abqjournal.com. Retrieved December 17, 2020.
- "New Mexico Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- "2020 Primary Election Results". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
- "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- "Federal". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
- "Official Results". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved December 13, 2020.
- https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/president-donald-trumps-campaign-drops-new-mexico-election-lawsuit/ar-BB1cFoli
- https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-donald-trump-state-elections-lawsuits-general-elections-66d53e1e68b331c8b0bd86887dfc252b
Further reading
- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
New Mexico
External links
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "New Mexico", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "New Mexico: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of New Mexico". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- New Mexico at Ballotpedia
