2009 European Parliament election

Voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2009

A poll sampling nineteen national polls predicted the following results: EPP 265 seats, PES 195, ALDE 95, GUE–NGL 40, Greens-EFA 35, UEN 35. The remaining 70 MEPs were not predicted, but about 20 were expected to be gained by far-right or Libertas candidates. IND/DEM was predicted to fade away due to Libertas' expected success.[9]

A prediction by political scientists Simon Hix (London School of Economics), Michael Marsh (Trinity College Dublin) and Nick Vivyan (London School of Economics) foresaw little change in the distribution of seats, predicting 249 seats for the EPP, 209 for the PES, 87 for ALDE, 58 for UEN or the European Conservatives, 48 for GUE–NGL, 39 for Greens–EFA, 17 for IND/DEM (resulting in its dissolution) and 29 NI; Libertas was not expected to win any seats.[10][11] A later prediction saw 262 seats for the EPP, 194 for the PES, 85 for ALDE, 53 for UEN or the European Conservatives, 40 for GUE–NGL, 50 for Greens–EFA, 23 for IND/DEM (resulting in its dissolution) and 29 NI.[12]

At the previous election member states were granted a fixed allocation of seats for election as determined under the provisions of the Treaty of Nice (current allocation is in the 2007 column below). The admission of Bulgaria and Romania midway through the previous Parliament's term had increased the overall size of the assembly to 785, and under the terms of the Treaty of Nice it was mandated that the seat allocations be modified for this election, dropping 49 seats to keep the overall size of the Parliament down.

It had been the stated desire of the member-state governments to ratify the Treaty of Lisbon before the election so that its articles governing the European Parliament could enter force as of this election. However, this was blocked by the Irish rejection of the treaty in a referendum. Under Lisbon, there would be a somewhat different allocation of seats, with fewer seats eliminated, leading to a slightly different distribution totalling 751 MEPs. Were the Lisbon Treaty to be subsequently ratified, it was planned to give in advance, prior to the next elections, the additional seats to the countries that were to see an increase in representation under the provisions of Lisbon; this would bring the number of MEPs to 754 for a transitional period until 2014.[13]

To have the additional MEPs ready at hand, 18 "phantom MEPs" were supposed to be elected at the election (which, however, did not happen in France). These were expected to get observer status in the European Parliament and full payment from the day the Lisbon Treaty entered into force (which did not happen either), but only to become full members of parliament if an additional protocol were ratified.[14][15] The latter was to require a decision by the European Council.[16]

† – Includes Gibraltar, but not any of the other overseas territories or Crown dependencies.
Italicised countries are divided into sub-national constituencies.

Sources: Institutions: EP, Const. changes, Protocol 34.

Logo used by the European institutions

Many of the national parties running in the election are affiliated to transnational pan-European political parties known as political parties at European level. Those pan-European parties are EPP, PES, ELDR, EFA, European Greens, AEN, PEL, EDP and EUD. The question of which was the first to campaign transnationally is the subject of some debate, with the European Greens stating that they were the first in 2004.[17] New parties that aspired to pan-European status during the 2009 elections include Newropeans, Europe United,[18] Europe – Democracy – Esperanto and Libertas Party Limited. The role for pan-European political parties has been expanded by changes enacted by the European Commission in 2007 under the direction of Margot Wallström.[19]

Four incumbent European Commissioners were to run as candidates in the election: Viviane Reding (Luxembourg, information society & media, Christian Social People's Party/EPP), Louis Michel (Belgium, development & humanitarian aid, Reformist Movement/ELDR), Danuta Hübner (Poland, regional policy, Civic Platform/EPP), Meglena Kuneva (Bulgaria, consumer protection, National Movement for Stability and Progress/ELDR).[20] Ján Figeľ (Slovakia, education, training & culture, Christian Democratic Movement/EPP) was tipped to run but ultimately did not, instead seeking to become the new chairman of his party.[21]

Kuneva later decided not to take up her seat in the European Parliament.[22]

It had initially been foreseen that the Treaty of Lisbon would have entered into force by the time of these elections, making them the first to be held under its provisions. However, primarily because of the No vote in the referendum in Ireland, the framework established by the Treaty of Nice will be used again. Amongst other differences, the number of MEPs to be returned depends upon which rules are in effect: while 736 MEPs will be elected under the Nice rules, this number would have increased to 751 if the Lisbon Treaty were in force.

A further change that Lisbon would have brought was an increase to the powers of Parliament, including powers over the appointment of the President of the European Commission.[30] It had been suggested by some that political parties could run with candidates for the Commission President;[31] with leaders now linking the post to elections and that convention having been enshrined in the Constitution, further encouraging the possibility.[32]

In 2007, it emerged that current Commission President José Manuel Barroso would likely seek a second term,[19] which he confirmed on 19 July 2008,[33] and he received the backing of French President Nicolas Sarkozy.[34] In beginning to formalise the emerging party-political nature of the office, in early 2009 the centre-right People's Party backed Barroso as their candidate and the centre-left socialists opposed, however they did not put forward their own formal candidate.[35]

The national results as of 8 June 2009 are as follows. (based on predictions, to be confirmed)

Traditionally, realignment between the different political groups and European political parties occurs in the runup to the election and in the time between the election and the first sitting of the European Parliament, when the political groups are constituted; the first sitting of the EP elected in 2009 is set for 14 July 2009.[86]

New rules regarding the minimum number of members needed for a political group will come into effect following the 2009 election. The PES and EPP–ED had initially proposed to raise the limit for groups in the EP from 20 MEPs and one fifth of member states to 30 MEPs and a quarter of member states, which would effectively close down UEN (only MEPs from six countries) and I/D (only 22 MEPs). All five smaller groups (UEN and I/D plus ALDE, Greens–EFA and GUE–NGL) protested against these proposed changes.[87] The proposal was voted down 15 to 14 in committee, and in an eventual compromise, new rules were approved in plenary on 9 July 2008 which require 25 MEPs from at least a quarter of the member states (i.e. seven member states).[88] Although UEN and I/D still fail to meet the basic requirements of the new rules, the adopted compromise also included a provision allowing the continued existence of a group which had fallen below the threshold, but only if it still had members from at least a fifth of the member states and only if it had been founded at least a year before dropping below the threshold; if there is "sufficient evidence" of the abuse of this provision, it need not be applied.[89]

  EPP (265)
  S&D (184)
  ALDE (84)
  Greens – EFA (55)
  ECR (54)
  EUL-NGL (35)
  EFD (32)
  Non-Inscrits (27)

The following changes occurred, which makes the make-up of the groups as follows:

• ALDE, Greens-EFA and EUL-NGL continue to exist.
• ECR is constituted
• PES becomes S&D.
• EPP-ED becomes EPP again
• I/D is replaced by EFD
• UEN is disbanded.

In the first vote of the new Parliament Jerzy Buzek (EPP, Poland) was elected Parliament President, winning with 555 to 89 votes over his opponent Eva-Britt Svensson (EUL-NGL, Sweden).[100]

The two candidates were:

• For the right of centre European People's Party, former Polish PM Jerzy Buzek was nominated by his group EPP-ED and supported by the PES and ALDE groups.
• On the left, Swedish MEP Eva Britt Svensson was nominated by her group EUL-NGL.

MEPs voted in a secret ballot on Tuesday morning 14 July 2009.[101]

The two largest groups in Parliament, the EPP-ED and PES, agreed to share the post of President of the European Parliament as they have done for all but two terms of Parliament. The first half of the term was taken by Jerzy Buzek MEP of the EPP, who was the first MEP from Eastern Europe to hold the post. He passed it over to Martin Schulz MEP, the current leader of PES.[102] The deal got support form The ALDE group (their candidate Graham Watson dropped out from the race).[103]

The other official candidate was Eva-Britt Svensson, nominated from EUL-NGL.[104] She campaigned with the slogan "a different voice". She was the first MEP from Sweden to candidate to the position.

• Section devoted to the election on the European Parliament website
• EurActiv – EU Elections 2009
• NSD: European Election Database – European Parliament Elections
• EU Observer – EU Elections 2009
• Euronews – EU Elections 2009
• Guide to European Elections provided by European Alternatives
• About the European Elections 2009 in Ireland
• EU Election 2009 Coverage on BBC
• Pre-election survey, EU27 and by member state