2016 United States Senate election in Nevada

The 2016 United States Senate election in Nevada was held November 8, 2016 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Nevada, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The state primary election was held June 14, 2016.[1]

2016 United States Senate election in Nevada

November 8, 2016
 
Nominee Catherine Cortez Masto Joe Heck
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 521,994 495,079
Percentage 47.1% 44.7%

County results
Cortez Masto:      50–60%
Heck:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

U.S. senator before election

Harry Reid
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Catherine Cortez Masto
Democratic

Incumbent Democratic Senator Harry Reid, the Senate Minority Leader, initially said he would seek re-election to a sixth term, but announced on March 26, 2015, that he would retire instead.[2][3]

Democratic former State Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto defeated Republican U.S. Representative Joe Heck in the general election on November 8, 2016. Heck won sixteen out of the state's seventeen counties and equivalents. Cortez Masto won only Clark County; however, since the county comprises nearly three-quarters of the state's population, she defeated Heck statewide by almost 27,000 votes.

Democratic Party primary

Declared

Declined

Democratic endorsements

Catherine Cortez Masto
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Vice Presidents
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
U.S. Senators
Statewide Officials
State Legislators
Organizations

Results

Results by county:
  Cortez Masto—80–90%
  Cortez Masto—70–80%
  Cortez Masto—60–70%
  Cortez Masto—50–60%
  Cortez Masto—<40%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Catherine Cortez Masto 81,944 81.0%
Democratic Allen Rheinhart 5,645 6.0%
Democratic None of these candidates 5,498 5.0%
Democratic Liddo Susan O'Briant 4,834 5.0%
Democratic Bobby Mahendra 3,760 3.0%
Total votes 101,681 100.0%

Republican Party primary

Declared

  • Sharron Angle, former state assemblywoman, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and candidate for NV-02 in 2006[35]
  • D'Nese Davis, artist and teacher[5]
  • Eddie Hamilton, retired auto executive and perennial candidate[5][36]
  • Joe Heck, U.S. Representative[37]
  • Thomas "Sad Tom" Heck, retired air force officer[5][38]
  • Robert Leeds, author, retired Merchant Marine and perennial candidate[5]
  • Carlo "Mazunga" Poliak, retired sanitation worker and perennial candidate[5]
  • Juston Preble, sales consultant[5]
  • Bill Tarbell, retired minister and candidate for governor in 2014[5]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Joe Heck
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Mayors
Individuals

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Joe
Heck
Sharron
Angle
Other Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies March 28–30, 2016 500 ± 4.38% 67% 11% 3% 17%

Results

Results by county:
  Heck—70–80%
  Heck—60–70%
  Heck—50–60%
  Heck—40–50%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Joe Heck 74,517 65.0%
Republican Sharron Angle 26,142 23.0%
Republican None of these candidates 3,902 3.0%
Republican Thomas Heck 3,570 3.0%
Republican Eddie Hamilton 2,507 2.0%
Republican D'Nese Davis 1,937 1.8%
Republican Bill Tarbell 1,179 1.0%
Republican Robert Leeds 662 0.6%
Republican Juston Preble 582 0.5%
Republican Carlo Poliak 279 0.2%
Total votes 114,827 100.0%

Independent American Party primary

Declared

  • Tom Jones, retired businessman and perennial candidate[61]

Libertarian Party primary

Declined

Independents

Declared

  • Tony Gumina, physician and businessman[5]
  • Tom Sawyer, retired railroad worker[5]
  • G.A. Villa[5] (not on final ballot)[64]
  • Jarrod M. Williams, veteran[5][65]

General election

Debates

Dates Location Cortez Masto Heck Link
October 14, 2016 North Las Vegas, Nevada Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[66] Tossup September 30, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[67] Lean D November 7, 2016
Inside Elections[68] Tossup September 30, 2016
Daily Kos[69] Lean D November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[70] Tossup October 1, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Catherine
Cortez Masto (D)
Joe
Heck (R)
Other None of these
candidates
Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,207 ± 4.6% 50% 45% 5%
Gravis Marketing November 3–6, 2016 1,158 ± 2.9% 49% 43% 8%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016 1,124 ± 4.6% 49% 46% 5%
Emerson College November 4–5, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 48% 47% 3% 1%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016 1,016 ± 4.6% 49% 46% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016 937 ± 4.6% 48% 47% 5%
Public Policy Polling October 31–November 1, 2016 688 ± 3.7% 47% 44% 9%
JMC Analytics & Polling (R)/8 News NOW October 28–November 1, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 45% 43% 1% 3% 7%
45% 43% 1% 4% 6%
The Times Picayune/Lucid October 28–November 1, 2016 892 ± 3.0% 47% 41% 13%
CNN/ORC October 27–November 1, 2016 790 LV ± 3.5% 47% 49% 3% 1%
860 RV 47% 48% 4% 1%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016 994 ± 4.6% 47% 47% 6%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 1,010 ± 4.6% 47% 47% 6%
Emerson College October 26–27, 2016 550 ± 4.1% 44% 48% 3% 6%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing October 25, 2016 875 ± 3.3% 50% 44% 6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 20–24, 2016 707 LV ± 3.7% 42% 49% 4% 5%
985 RV ± 3.1% 42% 47% 4% 6%
Bendixen & Amandi International/Las Vegas Review-Journal October 20–23, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 45% 44% 2% 9%
KTNV/Rasmussen October 20–22, 2016 826 ± 3.5% 43% 41% 7% 8%
Monmouth University October 14–17, 2016 413 ± 4.8% 42% 45% 4% 5% 4%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 884 ± 0.5% 47% 48% 5%
CNN/ORC October 10–15, 2016 698 LV ± 3.5% 52% 45% 2% 1%
862 RV 50% 44% 4% 2%
CBS News/YouGov October 12–14, 2016 996 ± 4.5% 39% 39% 4% 18%
JMC Analytics & Polling (R)/8 News NOW October 10–13, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 41% 36% 6% 5% 14%
40% 35% 6% 4% 16%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) October 11–12, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 44% 47% 2% 5%
Clarity Campaign Labs - End Citizens United October 10–11, 2016 1,010 ± 3.1% 44% 41% 8% 7%
Public Policy Polling October 10–11, 2016 986 ± 3.1% 43% 39% 18%
Emerson College October 2–4, 2016 700 ± 3.6% 41% 45% 7% 7%
Hart Research Associates September 27–October 2, 2016 700 ± 3.2% 46% 47% 7%
Bendixen & Amandi International/Las Vegas Review-Journal September 27–29, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 45% 47% 8%
Suffolk University September 27–29, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 35% 38% 2% 4% 18%
FOX News September 18–20, 2016 704 LV ± 3.5% 36% 43% 7% 5% 8%
805 RV 34% 41% 7% 8% 10%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps September 10–19, 2016 400 ± 4.0% 41% 47% 1% 11%
KTNV/Rasmussen September 16–18, 2016 800 ± 4.0% 40% 44% 6% 11%
Insights West September 12–14, 2016 398 ± 4.9% 39% 43% 4% 14%
Monmouth University September 11–13, 2016 406 ± 4.9% 43% 46% 4% 3% 4%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - End Citizens United September 6–8, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 49% 47% 4%
NBC/WSJ/Marist September 6–8, 2016 627 LV ± 3.9% 45% 47% 1% 7%
915 RV ± 3.2% 46% 45% 1% 8%
Public Policy Polling September 6–7, 2016 815 ± 3.4% 42% 41% 16%
Suffolk University August 15–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 37% 37% 3% 6% 14%
CBS News/YouGov August 2–5, 2016 993 ± 4.6% 35% 38% 4% 23%
KTNV/Rasmussen July 29–31, 2016 750 ± 4.0% 41% 42% 6% 11%
KTNV/Rasmussen July 22–24, 2016 750 ± 4.0% 37% 46% 5% 12%
Monmouth University July 7–10, 2016 408 ± 4.9% 40% 42% 5% 6% 7%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps June 11–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 41% 46% 13%
Gravis Marketing May 24–25, 2016 1,637 ± 2.0% 45% 43% 12%
Gravis Marketing February 14–15, 2016 1,366 ± 3.0% 41% 44% 15%
Gravis Marketing December 23–27, 2015 909 ± 3.0% 37% 47% 16%
Public Policy Polling July 15, 2015 677 ± 3.8% 42% 41% 17%

Results

Cortez Masto won her bid to succeed Harry Reid 47.07-44.70, or by 2.37%, running 0.01% better than Hillary Clinton.[71]

United States Senate election in Nevada, 2016 [72]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Catherine Cortez Masto 521,994 47.10% -3.19%
Republican Joe Heck 495,079 44.67% +0.12%
n/a None of these Candidates 42,257 3.81% +1.56%
Independent American Tom Jones 17,128 1.55% +1.11%
Independent Thomas Sawyer 14,208 1.28% N/A
Independent Tony Gumina 10,740 0.97% N/A
Independent Jarrod Williams 6,888 0.62% N/A
Total votes 1,108,294 100.0% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

County[72] Catherine Cortez Matso

Democratic

Joe Heck

Republican

None of these Candidates Tom Jones

Independent American

Thomas Sawyer

Independent

Tony Gumina

Independent

Jarrod Williams

Independent

Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Carson City 9,741 13,027 895
Churchill 2,240 7,711 352
Clark 386,179 303,734 29,849
Douglas 8,410 17,587 767
Elko 3,199 13,462 723
Esmeralda 66 312 13
Eureka 88 692 29
Humboldt 1,406 4,397 235
Lander 417 1,704 113
Lincoln 315 1,609 91
Lyon 6,323 15,231 780
Mineral 627 1,141 89
Nye 5,253 11,611 929
Pershing 466 1,286 77
Storey 791 1,551 83
Washoe 95,750 97,433 7,064
White Pine 723 2,591 168
Totals 521,994 47.10% 495,079 44.67% 42,257 3.81% 17,128 1.55% 14,208 1.28% 10,740 0.97% 6,888 0.62% 26,915 2.43% 1,108,294

See also

References

  1. "NEVADA ELECTION CALENDAR".
  2. Meredith Shiner (August 7, 2012). "Nevada: Harry Reid to Retire … in 2016?". Roll Call. Retrieved March 22, 2015.
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  4. DelReal, Jose A. "Catherine Cortez Masto announces bid to succeed Harry Reid in the Senate". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 8, 2015.
  5. Richardson, Seth A. (March 18, 2016). "UPDATE: 18, including Angle, file for Reid Senate seat, 3 Dems hope to challenge Amodei". Reno Gazette-Journal. Retrieved March 19, 2016.
  6. Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
  7. Cheney, Kyle (March 27, 2015). "Parties search for Harry Reid replacements in Nevada". Politico. Retrieved March 27, 2015.
  8. Myers, Laura (March 31, 2015). "Berkley, Heck, Rory: No plans to run for Reid Senate seat". Las Vegas Review-Journal. Retrieved April 1, 2015.
  9. Ballhaus, Rebecca; Lazo, Alejandro (March 27, 2015). "Nevada Scene: Who Will Run for Reid's Senate Seat?". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved March 29, 2015.
  10. Myers, Laura (April 22, 2015). "Democrat Lucy Flores announces congressional bid". Las Vegas Review Journal. Retrieved April 23, 2015.
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  12. Miller, Ross (April 8, 2015). "I'm proud to support my friend Catherine Cortez Masto in her bid for US Senate". Twitter. Retrieved April 8, 2015.
  13. Joseph, Cameron (March 27, 2015). "Rep. Titus considering bid for Reid's seat". The Hill. Retrieved March 27, 2015.
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