2016 North Carolina gubernatorial election

The 2016 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2016 North Carolina gubernatorial election
November 8, 2016
Turnout68.98% 1.68%
 
Nominee Roy Cooper Pat McCrory
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,309,157 2,298,880
Percentage 49.0% 48.8%
County results
Cooper:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
McCrory:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Pat McCrory
Republican

 Elected Governor

Roy Cooper
Democratic

Elections in North Carolina
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
State executive
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant Governor elections
Attorney General elections
Council of State elections
Secretary of State elections
State legislature
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State Senate elections
State House elections
State judiciary
Judicial elections
Ballot measures
2012
Amendment 1
Mayoral elections
Charlotte mayoral elections
Cary mayoral elections
Durham mayoral elections
Fayetteville mayoral elections
Greensboro mayoral elections
Raleigh mayoral elections
Winston-Salem mayoral elections

Primary elections were held March 15.[1] Both major party candidates won their primaries by overwhelming margins. Incumbent Republican Governor Pat McCrory was running for reelection to a second term in office.[2] Roy Cooper, the incumbent Attorney General of the state and the second-longest-serving Attorney General in North Carolina history, was the Democratic nominee. Lon Cecil, a consultant and electrical engineer, was the Libertarian nominee. The gubernatorial race was expected to be among the most competitive in the country in 2016.[3]

On election night, the race was too close to call, with Cooper leading by fewer than 5,000 votes out of more than 4.6 million cast.[4] That lead eventually widened to 10,281 votes. Cooper claimed victory that night, with thousands of provisional ballots still yet to be counted, saying "We have won this race." However, McCrory refused to concede, claiming that the race was still too close to call and the winner had not yet been determined. He cast doubt on the authenticity of 90,000 late-arriving votes from Durham County, which put Cooper in the lead.[5] McCrory's campaign filed complaints alleging voter fraud in over 50 counties.[6] Both campaigns anticipated a protracted legal battle over the results.[7]

On November 22, 2016, McCrory formally requested a statewide recount;[8] once all ballots are counted, North Carolina election law allows either candidate to request a recount if the margin is fewer than 10,000 votes.[7] On November 30, 2016, the North Carolina State Board of Elections ordered a recount of certain votes in Durham County.[9] The recount was slated to be completed on December 5, 2016. However, when early results made it apparent that the margin would not change, McCrory conceded the race to Cooper on the afternoon of December 5. This was the first time since North Carolina governors became eligible for immediate reelection in 1976 that a sitting officeholder was defeated in their bid for a second term.[10] It was also the only gubernatorial seat to flip from Republican to Democratic in 2016.

Republican primary

Declared

Declined

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Pat
McCrory		 Charles
Moss		 Robert
Brawley		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 11–13, 2016 749 ± 3.6% 70% 7% 6% 17%
High Point University March 9–10, 2016 734 ± 2.5% 73% 6% 8% 13%
SurveyUSA March 4–7, 2016 688 ± 3.6% 66% 6% 9% 19%
SurveyUSA February 14–16, 2016 437 ± 4.5% 67% – 17% 16%
Public Policy Polling February 14–16, 2016 597 ± 4.0% 69% 4% 5% 22%
High Point University January 30–February 4, 2016 477 ± 4.5% 75% 3% 2% 20%
Public Policy Polling January 18–19, 2016 433 ± 3.2% 68% 6% 4% 22%

Results
Republican primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Pat McCrory (incumbent) 869,114 82.0%
Republican Robert Brawley 112,624 11.0%
Republican Charles Moss 81,315 7.0%
Total votes 1,063,053 100.00%

Democratic primary
Results by county:
  Roy Cooper
  Ken Spaulding

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Roy
Cooper		 Kenneth
Spaulding		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 11–13, 2016 746 ± 3.6% 53% 17% — 30%
High Point University March 9–10, 2016 669 ± 2.5% 64% 18% — 19%
SurveyUSA March 4–7, 2016 687 ± 3.8% 51% 19% — 30%
SurveyUSA February 14–16, 2016 449 ± 4.7% 50% 21% — 29%
Public Policy Polling February 14–16, 2016 575 ± 4.1% 55% 12% — 33%
High Point University January 30–February 4, 2016 478 ± 4.5% 49% 11% — 40%
Public Policy Polling January 18–19, 2016 461 ± 3.2% 55% 10% — 35%
Public Policy Polling December 5–7, 2015 555 ± 2.8% 54% 10% — 36%
Public Policy Polling October 23–25, 2015 421 ± 4.8% 58% 13% — 29%

Results
Democratic primary results[25]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Roy Cooper 710,658 69.0%
Democratic Kenneth Spaulding 323,774 31.0%
Total votes 1,034,432 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Declared
  • Lon Cecil, retired engineer and nominee for NC-12 in 2010[26]

Withdrawn

Declined
  • Sean Haugh, pizza delivery man and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2002 and 2014 (running for U.S. Senate)[29][30]

Write-in candidates

Declared
  • Daniel Orr, navy veteran[31]

General election

Debates

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[32] Tossup November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] Lean D (flip) November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[34] Tilt D (flip) November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[35] Tossup November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[36] Tossup November 1, 2016

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Pat
McCrory (R)		 Roy
Cooper (D)		 Lon
Cecil (L)		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 3,126 ± 4.6% 43% 54% — — 3%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College November 4–6, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 46% 47% — — 7%
Quinnipiac University November 3–6, 2016 870 ± 3.3% 47% 50% — 1% 3%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016 2,865 ± 4.6% 43% 54% — — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016 2,292 ± 4.6% 44% 53% — — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016 1,886 ± 4.6% 45% 53% — — 2%
Quinnipiac University October 27–November 1, 2016 602 ± 4.0% 47% 49% — 1% 3%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016 1,617 ± 4.6% 45% 52% — — 3%
SurveyUSA October 28–31, 2016 659 ± 3.9% 47% 48% 2% — 4%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 1,574 ± 4.6% 46% 52% — — 2%
CBS News/YouGov October 26–28, 2016 992 ± 4.1% 44% 46% — 1% 9%
Elon University Poll October 23–27, 2016 710 ± 3.7% 44% 44% 1% 3% 8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 25–26, 2016 780 LV ± 3.5% 45% 51% — 2% 2%
1,018 RV ± 3.1% 45% 50% — 3% 3%
Quinnipiac University October 20–26, 2016 702 ± 3.7% 47% 49% — — 3%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College October 20–23, 2016 792 ± 3.5% 45% 51% — — 4%
Monmouth University October 20–23, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 48% 47% 2% — 3%
Public Policy Polling October 21–22, 2016 875 ± 3.3% 44% 46% 3% — 8%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 17–18, 2016 924 ± 3.0% 43% 50% — — 7%
SurveyUSA October 14–18, 2016 651 ± 3.9% 45% 47% 3% — 5%
Civitas Institute (R) October 14–17, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 46% 42% — — 10%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 1,191 ± 0.5% 42% 55% — — 2%
CNN/ORC October 10–15, 2016 788 LV ± 3.5% 48% 49% — — 2%
929 RV ± 3.0% 47% 49% — — 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 10–12, 2016 743 LV ± 3.6% 48% 49% — 1% 3%
1,025 RV ± 3.1% 47% 48% — 1% 4%
High Point University October 1–6, 2016 479 ± 4.5% 42% 49% 3% — 5%
SurveyUSA September 29–October 3, 2016 656 ± 3.9% 44% 48% 2% — 6%
Bloomberg/Selzer September 29–October 3, 2016 805 ± 3.5% 44% 50% — — 6%
Quinnipiac University September 27–October 2, 2016 507 ± 4.4% 46% 48% — — 6%
Elon University Poll September 27–30, 2016 660 ± 3.8% 44% 48% 3% — 5%
Public Policy Polling September 27–28, 2016 861 ± 3.3% 42% 45% 4% — 9%
44% 49% — — 7%
Meredith College September 18–22, 2016 487 ± 4.4% 41% 39% 1% 6% 14%
High Point University September 17–22, 2016 404 ± 4.9% 41% 50% 3% — 5%
FOX News September 18–20, 2016 734 LV ± 3.5% 46% 43% 3% 1% 7%
800 RV 45% 42% 3% 1% 9%
Public Policy Polling September 18–20, 2016 1,024 ± 3.1% 41% 46% 2% — 11%
43% 50% — — 8%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College September 16–19, 2016 782 ± 3.6% 42% 50% — — 7%
Elon University Poll September 12–16, 2016 644 ± 3.9% 49% 46% 2% — 3%
Civitas Institute (R) September 11–12, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 45% 43% 1% — 9%
Quinnipiac University August 29–September 7, 2016 751 ± 3.6% 44% 51% — — 5%
Monmouth University August 20–23, 2016 401 ± 4.9% 43% 52% 3% — 3%
CNN/ORC August 18–23, 2016 803 LV ± 3.5% 46% 52% — — 2%
912 RV
NBC/WSJ/Marist August 4–10, 2016 921 ± 3.2% 44% 51% — — 5%
Public Policy Polling August 5–7, 2016 830 ± 3.4% 42% 43% 4% — 11%
NBC/WSJ/Marist July 5–11, 2016 907 ± 3.3% 45% 49% — 1% 5%
Civitas Institute (R) June 21–23, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 45% 40% 3% — 10%
Public Policy Polling June 20–21, 2016 947 ± 3.2% 41% 41% 6% — 13%
Civitas Institute (R) May 21–23, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 45% 40% 3% — 11%
Public Policy Polling May 20–22, 2016 928 ± 3.2% 41% 41% 5% — 13%
RABA Research April 27–28, 2016 688 ± 3.7% 36% 41% 6% — 17%
Civitas Institute (R) April 23–25, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 39% 48% 5% — 8%
Public Policy Polling April 22–24, 2016 960 ± 3.2% 42% 43% 4% — 11%
Elon University Poll April 10–15, 2016 621 ± 3.9% 42% 48% — 6% 5%
SurveyUSA April 8–11, 2016 701 ± 3.8% 43% 47% 2% — 8%
Public Policy Polling March 18–20, 2016 843 ± 3.4% 42% 40% 6% — 12%
High Point University March 9–10, 2016 1,576 ± 2.5% 47% 45% — — 8%
Elon University Poll February 15–19, 2016 1,530 ± 2.5% 40% 42% — 3% 15%
Public Policy Polling February 14–16, 2016 1,291 ± 2.7% 43% 41% — — 16%
SurveyUSA February 14–16, 2016 1,250 ± 2.8% 45% 42% — — 12%
Public Policy Polling January 18–19, 2016 948 ± 3.2% 40% 43% — — 17%
Public Policy Polling December 5–7, 2015 1,214 ± 2.8% 44% 42% — — 14%
Elon University Poll October 29–November 2, 2015 1,040 ± 3.0% 40% 45% — 3% 13%
Public Policy Polling October 23–25, 2015 893 ± 3.3% 43% 44% — — 13%
Public Policy Polling September 24–27, 2015 1,268 ± 2.8% 44% 41% — — 15%
Elon University Poll September 17–21, 2015 1,258 ± 3.0% 43% 42% — 3% 11%
Public Policy Polling August 12–16, 2015 957 ± 3.2% 39% 42% — — 18%
Civitas Institute (R) August 10–12, 2015 400 ± 4.0% 32% 34% — — 33%
Public Policy Polling July 2–6, 2015 529 ± 4.3% 41% 43% — — 16%
Civitas Institute (R) June 23–25, 2015 600 ± 4.0% 43% 38% — — 17%
Public Policy Polling May 28–31, 2015 561 ± 4.1% 41% 44% — — 15%
Elon University Poll April 20–24, 2015 677 ± 3.8% 45% 43% — 4% 8%
Public Policy Polling April 2–5, 2015 751 ± 3.6% 44% 41% — — 15%
Public Policy Polling February 24–26, 2015 849 ± 3.4% 43% 41% — — 16%
Diversified Research February 2–3, 2015 800 ± 3.5% 44% 42% — — 14%
Public Policy Polling January 29–31, 2015 845 ± 3.4% 44% 39% — — 17%
Meeting Street Research January 21–22, 2015 500 ± 4.4% 47% 44% — — 9%
Public Policy Polling December 4–7, 2014 823 ± 3.4% 46% 39% — — 15%
Gravis Marketing October 29–30, 2014 1,006 ± 3.0% 47% 45% — — 8%
Gravis Marketing October 16–18, 2014 1,022 ± 3.0% 49% 41% — — 9%
Gravis Marketing September 22–23, 2014 860 ± 3.0% 45% 42% — — 12%
Public Policy Polling September 11–14, 2014 1,266 ± 2.8% 44% 41% — — 15%
Public Policy Polling August 14–17, 2014 856 ± 3.4% 44% 43% — — 14%
Gravis Marketing July 22–27, 2014 1,380 ± 3.0% 44% 46% — — 10%
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014 1,076 ± 3.0% 44% 42% — — 14%
Public Policy Polling May 9–11, 2014 877 ± 3.3% 43% 42% — — 15%
Public Policy Polling April 3–6, 2014 740 ± 3.6% 43% 43% — — 15%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 708 ± 3.7% 43% 41% — — 15%
Public Policy Polling September 6–9, 2013 600 ± 4.0% 42% 48% — — 11%
North Carolina's gubernatorial election, 2016[37]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Roy Cooper 2,309,162 49.02% +5.79%
Republican Pat McCrory (incumbent) 2,298,881 48.80% -5.82%
Libertarian Lon Cecil 102,978 2.19% +0.06%
Margin of victory 10,281 0.22% -7.92%
Turnout 4,711,021 68.98% +1.68%
Democratic gain from Republican

Polls closed at 7:30 pm on election day. On election night, as votes were tallied, Cooper held an early lead, but was overtaken by McCrory around 9:30 pm, and McCrory held the lead for most of the evening. Shortly before midnight, McCrory held a 60,000 vote lead until a block of 90,000 votes from Durham County was added to the total, putting Cooper back in the lead by fewer than 5,000 votes out of 4,500,000 cast.[5] Both candidates addressed supporters around 12:30 am; Cooper declared victory, while McCrory vowed the race was not over and that every vote needed to be counted.[5]

Under North Carolina state law, absentee ballots postmarked on or before election day must be counted, and military and overseas ballots accepted through November 17 must also be counted.[38] Additionally, election administrators "must decide the eligibility of more than 60,000 provisional ballots and the validity of thousands of challenged votes."[38] This process, plus a protracted legal challenge from the McCrory campaign, was likely to leave the election result not formally decided for some time after election day.[38]

McCrory's campaign said that it had "grave concerns over potential irregularities in Durham County."[5] Republican Party of North Carolina Chairman Robin Hayes called Cooper's declaration of victory "rude and grossly premature."[7] On November 10, 2016, both campaigns announced they had retained attorneys in anticipation of a protracted legal battle: Cooper hired lawyers from Washington-based firm Perkins Coie (including Marc Elias[39]), while McCrory hired lawyers from Virginia-based firm Holtzman Vogel Josefiak.[7]

Once all ballots are counted, North Carolina election law allows either candidate to request a recount if the margin is fewer than 10,000 votes.[7]

On November 12, the general counsel of the Durham County Republican Party filed a formal protest with the Durham County Board of Elections alleging "malfeasance" in the tallying of votes in Durham County and calling for a recount.[40] McCrory's campaign said that the 90,000 votes added to the total late on election night appeared to have come from corrupted memory cards. A campaign spokesman said, "What transpired in Durham County is extremely troubling and no citizen can have confidence in the results at this point in time."[40]

On November 14, WRAL reported that there was speculation among political operatives about whether the race could possibly be contested and handed to the North Carolina General Assembly to determine the winner, as was done in 2005, when the General Assembly made June Atkinson the winner of a disputed election for the office of North Carolina Superintendent of Public Instruction.[41] North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore said getting the General Assembly involved would be "an absolute last resort".[42]

Also on November 14, WRAL reported that the State Bureau of Investigation was investigating whether crimes were committed in the mishandling of 1,000 ballots in the March 2016 primaries in Durham County, the likely epicenter of the battle over the gubernatorial race.[43] The Durham County electoral board chairman said there was no connection between the investigation and the gubernatorial race.[43]

On November 15 Bladen County Soil and Water Conservation District Supervisor McCrae Dowless, a Republican and the incumbent for reelection, filed a protest with that county's board of elections over several hundred absentee ballots cast for Cooper and other Democrats, claiming that they were fraudulent; on the basis of similarity of the handwriting with which they were filled out. In his initial filing, Dowless claimed corroboration by a handwriting expert. The complainant had initially expressed concerns about voter fraud related to his own reelection campaign, and before election day.[44][45][46] The McCrory campaign alleged that the ballots were filled out by paid employees of the Bladen County Improvement Association PAC, a political action committee that received funding from the North Carolina Democratic Party.[44] The complaint alleged that one person served as a witness for at least 67 mail-in absentee ballots, and the same person appeared to have filled out the selections on 71 ballots.[47] It said there were at least 250 questionable ballots connected to five people paid by the Bladen County Improvement Association PAC. That organization has responded that the people involved were volunteers with their get-out-the-vote effort, and that the only payments made to them were small stipends for expenses incurred as part of that activity; such as food and gas costs.[48] The McCrory campaign stated, "A massive voting fraud scheme has been uncovered in Bladen County."[48] In response, the Cooper campaign stated: "Governor McCrory has set a new standard for desperation in his attempts to undermine the results of an election he lost."[49]

On November 16, the McCrory campaign announced it had filed election protests alleging fraud in 11 more counties.[6][50] On November 17, the McCrory campaign announced the number of counties in which it had filed protests alleging voter fraud had grown to 50 counties,[49][51] which the Associated Press reported were "without offering detailed proof."[52]

Every county election board in the state has three members: two Republican appointees and one Democrat.[39][53]

Durham County has been seen as the most pivotal county, as it has the most votes at stake.[39] On November 16, the Durham County Board of Elections voted 2-1 to hold an evidentiary hearing on election protest about the ballots in Durham County.[54] At the hearing on November 18, the board unanimously dismissed the protest, with the board's Republican chairman, William Brian Jr., saying that all the evidence shows that the count is correct.[52]

By November 18, Cooper's unofficial advantage over McCrory had grown to about 6,600 votes, out of almost 4.7 million cast.[52][53]

On November 20, the state Board of Elections held an emergency meeting. They declined a McCrory campaign petition for the state board to take jurisdiction over all 50 county election protests, except for the one in Bladen County, which they took over.[55] They decided to convene another meeting on November 22 to issue guidance to county boards on how to handle the protests.[56]

On November 22, the McCrory campaign formally requested a statewide recount.[8]

Also on November 22, the Civitas Institute filed a federal lawsuit seeking an injunction to delay the State Board of Elections' count of ballots of unverified same-day registrants, alleging that there is not enough time to verify the eligibility of voters who registered to vote on election day.[57] Civitas said that neither the McCrory campaign nor the state Republican Party were involved in the lawsuit.[58] Civitas cited a 2012 review conducted by the state Board of Elections that found 2.44% of voters who used same-day registration in 2012 failed the verification process, but the process was not completely finished when the ballots were counted.[58] A court hearing is scheduled for December 8.[59]

On November 26, the Durham County Republican Party's general counsel asked the state Board of Elections to hold an expedited hearing on his appeal of the Durham County Board of Elections' refusal to conduct a recount of that county's votes.[60] The campaign stated they would withdraw their request for a statewide recount if a manual recount of Durham County votes produced the same results as were reported on election day.[61]

On November 30, the State Board of Elections ordered a recount of the Durham County votes.[9] The recount was to be completed by 7 p.m. on December 5. However, by that morning, early results showed no change in the tally. McCrory announced on his campaign's YouTube channel that he was conceding the race to Cooper, saying that it was now clear that "the majority of our citizens had spoken."[10]

Official results
North Carolina's gubernatorial election, 2016[62]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Roy Cooper 2,309,157 49.02% +5.79%
Republican Pat McCrory (incumbent) 2,298,880 48.80% -5.82%
Libertarian Lon Cecil 102,977 2.19% +0.06%
Total votes 4,711,014 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Aftermath

Following the election, the General Assembly, controlled by Republicans, passed legislation that would limit the incoming governor's powers.[63] Democrats have referred to the move as a power grab, and Republicans have countered that Democrats have made similar moves when they controlled the legislature.[64]

References
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  54. Durham County board to hold hearing on election protest, News & Observer (November 16, 2016).
  55. WRAL (November 20, 2016). "N Carolina election board takes Bladen protest, not others :: WRAL.com". Archived from the original on November 22, 2016. Retrieved November 22, 2016.
  56. "NC Board of Elections votes to reconvene Tuesday". November 20, 2016. Retrieved November 22, 2016.
  57. Civitas Institute lawsuit wants same-day vote count delayed
  58. Civitas sues to stop final NC vote count, cites concerns about same-day registration
  59. In North Carolina, No End in Sight to Governor’s Race
  60. NC elections board could consider key ballot appeal this week
  61. McCrory will withdraw recount demand if Durham votes recounted
  62. "North Carolina Official General Election Results". North Carolina State Board of Elections. November 8, 2016. Retrieved January 5, 2017.
  63. "North Carolina Governor Signs Bill Limiting His Successor's Power". The Wall Street Journal. December 16, 2016.
  64. "North Carolina Governor Signs Law Limiting Successor's Power". The New York Times. December 16, 2016.
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