2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina

The 2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held November 8, 2016 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primary elections were held March 15.[1]

2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina

November 8, 2016
 
Nominee Richard Burr Deborah K. Ross
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 2,395,376 2,128,165
Percentage 51.0% 45.3%

County results
Burr      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Ross      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Richard Burr
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Richard Burr
Republican

Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr won re-election to a third term in office against Democratic former State Representative Deborah K. Ross and Libertarian Sean Haugh.

Republican primary

There had been speculation that Burr might retire,[2] but he said in September 2014 that he was "planning" on running[3] and reaffirmed this in January 2015.[4] If Burr had retired, the seat was expected to draw significant interest, with potential Republican candidates including U.S. Representatives George Holding, Mark Meadows, and Robert Pittenger, Labor Commissioner Cherie K. Berry, Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest, Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler, State Senator Philip E. Berger, and former Ambassador to Denmark James P. Cain.[2][3]

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr
Greg
Brannon
Paul
Wright
Larry
Holmquist
Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 11–13, 2016 749 ±3.6% 48% 20% 4% 3% 24%
High Point University March 9–10, 2016 734 ±2.5% 56% 20% 5% 3% 17%
SurveyUSA March 4–7, 2016 688 ±3.8% 45% 17% 7% 4% 27%
SurveyUSA February 14–16, 2016 437 ±2.8% 45% 14% 6% 6% 30%
Public Policy Polling February 14–16, 2016 597 ±4.0% 56% 13% 4% 3% 24%
High Point University January 30–February 4, 2016 477 ±4.5% 46% 10% 5% 2% 37%
Public Policy Polling January 18–19, 2016 433 ±3.2% 55% 10% 6% 5% 24%

Results

Republican primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Richard Burr (incumbent) 622,074 61.41%
Republican Greg Brannon 255,030 25.17%
Republican Paul Wright 85,944 8.48%
Republican Larry Holmquist 50,010 4.94%
Total votes 1,013,058 100.00%

Democratic primary

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kevin
Griffin
Ernest
Reeves
Chris
Rey
Deborah
Ross
Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 11–13, 2016 746 ±3.6% 4% 8% 8% 40% 41%
High Point University March 9–10, 2016 669 ±2.5% 9% 5% 7% 52% 27%
SurveyUSA March 4–7, 2016 687 ±3.8% 7% 6% 9% 34% 44%
SurveyUSA February 14–16, 2016 449 ±2.8% 7% 3% 5% 30% 55%
Public Policy Polling February 14–16, 2016 575 ±4.1% 10% 2% 10% 22% 55%
High Point University January 30–February 4, 2016 478 ±4.5% 6% 4% 5% 19% 66%
Public Policy Polling January 18–19, 2016 461 ±3.2% 14% 3% 10% 19% 55%
Public Policy Polling December 5–7, 2015 555 ±2.8% 15% - 5% 41% 39%
Public Policy Polling October 23–25, 2015 421 ±4.8% 16% - 6% 33% 45%

Results

Democratic primary results[44]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Deborah Ross 614,414 62.32%
Democratic Chris Rey 162,869 16.52%
Democratic Kevin Griffin 115,618 11.73%
Democratic Ernest Reeves 93,005 9.43%
Total votes 985,906 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Declared

General election

Candidates

Debates

Dates Location Burr Ross Link
October 13, 2016 Chapel Hill, North Carolina Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements

Richard Burr
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Senators
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[76] Tossup November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[77] Lean R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[78] Tossup October 21, 2016
Daily Kos[79] Tossup November 3, 2016
Real Clear Politics[80] Tossup November 3, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Deborah
Ross (D)
Sean
Haugh (L)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 3,126 ±4.6% 43% 47% 6% 4%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College November 4–6, 2016 800 ±3.5% 46% 45% 9%
Quinnipiac University November 3–6, 2016 870 ±3.3% 47% 47% 1% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016 2,865 ±4.6% 44% 47% 6% 3%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing November 1–4, 2016 1,250 ±2.8% 47% 48% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016 2,292 ±4.6% 44% 47% 6% 3%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016 1,886 ±4.6% 44% 47% 6% 3%
Public Policy Polling October 31–November 1, 2016 1,169 ±2.9% 48% 45% 7%
Quinnipiac University October 27–November 1, 2016 602 ±4.0% 45% 49% 1% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016 1,617 ±4.6% 43% 47% 6% 4%
SurveyUSA October 28–31, 2016 659 ±3.9% 49% 43% 2% 6%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 1,574 ±4.6% 43% 47% 7% 3%
CBS News/YouGov October 26–28, 2016 992 ±4.1% 44% 44% 1% 10%
Emerson College October 26–27, 2016 650 ±3.8% 48% 44% 3% 6%
Elon University Poll October 23–27, 2016 710 ±3.7% 44% 40% 3% 11%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing October 25–26, 2016 1,273 ±2.8% 45% 48% 7%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 25–26, 2016 780 LV ±3.5% 48% 48% 2% 3%
1,018 RV ±3.1% 48% 46% 2% 4%
Quinnipiac University October 20–26, 2016 702 ±3.7% 48% 47% 5%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College October 20–23, 2016 792 ±3.5% 46% 47% 7%
Monmouth University October 20–23, 2016 402 ±4.9% 49% 43% 2% 5%
Public Policy Polling October 21–22, 2016 875 ±3.3% 42% 41% 6% 11%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 17–18, 2016 924 ±3.0% 46% 44% 10%
SurveyUSA October 14–18, 2016 651 ±3.9% 45% 43% 6% 6%
Civitas Institute (R) October 14–17, 2016 600 ±4.0% 44% 37% 4% 11%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 1,191 ±0.5% 42% 48% 7% 3%
CNN/ORC October 10–15, 2016 788 LV ±3.5% 48% 47% 2%
929 RV ±3.0% 46% 49% 1% 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 10–12, 2016 743 LV ±3.6% 46% 46% 2% 6%
1,025 RV ±3.1% 45% 46% 2% 7%
Emerson College October 10–12, 2016 600 ±3.9% 45% 43% 3% 8%
Suffolk University October 10–12, 2016 500 ±4.4% 40% 36% 6% 16%
NCSU Pack Poll October 3–6, 2016 895 ±3.0% 39% 49% 12% 0%
High Point University October 1–6, 2016 479 ±4.5% 47% 42% 6% 4%
SurveyUSA September 29–October 3, 2016 656 ±3.9% 46% 44% 3% 7%
Bloomberg/Selzer September 29–October 3, 2016 805 ±3.5% 44% 46% 11%
Quinnipiac University September 27–October 2, 2016 507 ±4.4% 46% 46% 7%
Elon University Poll September 27–30, 2016 660 ±3.8% 43% 44% 4% 8%
Public Policy Polling September 27–28, 2016 861 ±3.3% 41% 39% 6% 14%
46% 42% 12%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing September 23, 2016 694 ±3.7% 39% 48% 13%
Meredith College September 18–22, 2016 487 ±4.4% 35% 38% 1% 7% 19%
High Point University September 17–22, 2016 404 ±4.9% 45% 43% 4% 6%
FOX News September 18–20, 2016 734 LV ±3.5% 43% 37% 6% 12%
800 RV 42% 36% 7% 13%
Public Policy Polling September 18–20, 2016 1,024 ±3.1% 41% 41% 4% 15%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College September 16–19, 2016 782 ±3.6% 42% 46% 11%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps September 10–19, 2016 400 ±4.0% 46% 30% 3% 21%
Elon University Poll September 12–16, 2016 644 ±3.9% 43% 44% 4% 9%
Civitas Institute (R) September 11–12, 2016 600 ±4.0% 44% 39% 2% 15%
Suffolk University September 5–7, 2016 500 ±4.4% 41% 37% 4% 16%
Quinnipiac University August 29–September 7, 2016 751 ±3.6% 49% 43% 8%
CBS News/YouGov August 30–September 2, 2016 1,088 ±4.0% 40% 41% 2% 17%
Emerson College August 27–29, 2016 800 ±3.4% 45% 41% 5% 14%
Public Policy Polling August 26–27, 2016 1,177 ±3.0% 46% 43% 12%
Monmouth University August 20–23, 2016 401 ±4.9% 45% 43% 4% 8%
CNN/ORC August 18–23, 2016 803 ±3.5% 50% 45% 5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist August 4–10, 2016 921 ±3.2% 44% 46% 1% 9%
Public Policy Polling August 5–7, 2016 830 ±3.4% 41% 37% 5% 17%
NBC/WSJ/Marist July 5–11, 2016 907 ±3.3% 48% 41% 1% 10%
Public Policy Polling June 20–21, 2016 947 ±3.2% 40% 37% 5% 18%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps June 11–20, 2016 300 ±5.7% 36% 38% 26%
Public Policy Polling May 20–22, 2016 928 ±3.2% 39% 36% 8% 18%
Civitas Institute (R) April 23–25, 2016 600 ±4.0% 39% 38% 7% 16%
Public Policy Polling April 22–24, 2016 960 ±3.2% 40% 36% 7% 17%
Elon University Poll April 10–15, 2016 621 ±3.9% 37% 33% 30%
Public Policy Polling March 18–20, 2016 843 ±3.4% 40% 35% 7% 18%
High Point University March 9–10, 2016 1,576 ±2.5% 48% 41% 11%
SurveyUSA February 14–16, 2016 1,250 ±2.8% 45% 37% 18%
Public Policy Polling February 14–16, 2016 1,291 ±2.7% 43% 37% 20%
Public Policy Polling January 18–19, 2016 948 ±3.2% 43% 33% 23%
Public Policy Polling December 5–7, 2015 1,214 ±2.8% 46% 35% 19%
Public Policy Polling October 23–25, 2015 893 ±3.3% 43% 39% 18%
Public Policy Polling September 24–27, 2015 1,268 ±2.8% 45% 34% 21%
Public Policy Polling Aug 12–16, 2015 957 ±3.2% 43% 36% 21%

Results

United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2016 [81]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Richard Burr (incumbent) 2,395,376 51.06% -3.75%
Democratic Deborah Ross 2,128,165 45.37% +2.32%
Libertarian Sean Haugh 167,592 3.57% +1.48%
Total votes 4,691,133 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

See also

  • United States Senate elections, 2016

References

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