2016 United States Senate election in Indiana

The 2016 United States Senate election in Indiana was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Indiana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2016 United States Senate election in Indiana

November 8, 2016
 
Nominee Todd Young Evan Bayh Lucy Brenton
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Popular vote 1,423,991 1,158,974 149,481
Percentage 52.1% 42.4% 5.5%

County results

Young:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Bayh:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Dan Coats
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Todd Young
Republican

Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Coats, who has served in the Senate since 2011, and previously served from 1989 to 1999, had stated that he planned to run for re-election,[1][2] but in March 2014 his chief of staff said that Coats "has decided not to decide whether to run again until after the [2014] midterm elections".[3] On March 24, 2015, Coats announced that he would not run for re-election, citing that he would be of advanced age (just under 80 years old) by the end of the 2017–2023 term, should he complete it.[4] The primaries were held May 3, and were won by former U.S. Representative Baron Hill and incumbent U.S. Representative Todd Young. However, on July 11, 2016, Hill withdrew, and former U.S. Senator Evan Bayh entered the race to regain the seat he held from 1999 to 2011, and that his father, Birch Bayh, held from 1963 to 1981. The Indiana Democratic Party chose Bayh as Hill's replacement on July 22. Bayh was initially seen as the frontrunner, but faced heavy criticism over lobbying work that he had done after leaving office as well as his lack of forthrightedness about maintaining residency in the state. Ultimately, Young won by a comfortable margin, defeating Bayh in the general election by 10 points.[5]

Republican primary

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Todd
Young
Marlin
Stutzman
Undecided
NBC/WSJ/Marist April 26–28, 2016 645 ± 3.9% 56% 24% 20%
IPFW/Downs Center April 13–27, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 42% 34% 24%
WTHR/Howey April 18–21, 2016 507 ± 4.0% 43% 31% 26%

Results

Results by county:
  Young—80–90%
  Young—70–80%
  Young—60–70%
  Young—50–60%
  Stutzman—50–60%
  Stutzman—60–70%
  Stutzman—70–80%
Republican primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Todd Young 661,136 67.0%
Republican Marlin Stutzman 324,429 33.0%
Total votes 985,565 100.0%

Democratic primary

Declared

  • Baron Hill, former U.S. Representative (withdrew after winning primary)

Withdrawn

  • John Dickerson, former nonprofit organization director[29][30]

Declined

Endorsements

Baron Hill
Individuals
Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Baron Hill 516,183 100.00%
Total votes 516,183 100.00%

Democratic State Central Committee selection

On July 11, 2016, CNN's Tom LoBianco announced that Bayh would enter the race to regain his old Senate seat and Hill would drop out and withdraw his name from the November ballot.[41] Hill soon after released a statement formally dropping out of the race saying he did not "...want to stand in the way of Democrats winning Indiana and the U.S. Senate. That would not be fair to my party or my state. And, the stakes are far too high in this election not to put my country above my own political ambitions,"[42] without explicitly endorsing Bayh.[42] The first candidate to declare was Bob Kern, a frequent candidate for Congress in various districts around the state.[43] Bayh officially declared for the race July 13.[44] The Indiana Democratic Party's State Central Committee chose Bayh as Hill's replacement, for the general election.[42]

Candidates

General election

Candidates

Debates

Dates Location Young Bayh Brenton Link
October 18, 2016 Indianapolis, Indiana Participant Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements

Evan Bayh
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
Mayors
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[62] Tossup November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[63] Lean R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[64] Tossup October 21, 2016
Daily Kos[65] Tossup November 3, 2016
Real Clear Politics[66] Tossup November 3, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Todd
Young (R)
Evan
Bayh (D)
Lucy
Brenton (L)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,700 ± 4.6% 53% 42% 5%
SurveyMonkey Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 1,383 ± 4.6% 52% 43% 5%
WTHR/Howey November 1–3, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 46% 41% 6% 7%
SurveyMonkey Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 923 ± 4.6% 52% 43% 5%
SurveyMonkey Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 790 ± 4.6% 51% 44% 5%
Gravis Marketing Oct 30–Nov 1, 2016 399 ± 4.9% 37% 40% 7% 16%
SurveyMonkey Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 638 ± 4.6% 51% 46% 3%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 674 ± 4.6% 50% 46% 4%
Monmouth University October 27–30, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 45% 45% 4% 5%
Gravis Marketing October 22–24, 2016 596 ± 2.3% 37% 39% 7% 17%
WISH/Ball State Hoosier Survey October 10–16, 2016 544 ± 3.9% 43% 49% 6%
Monmouth University October 11–13, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 42% 48% 6% 4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) October 9–11, 2016 609 ± 4.0% 40% 39% 8% 13%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 7–10, 2016 1,123 ± 3.0% 43% 46% 11%
WTHR/Howey October 3–5, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 41% 42% 8% 9%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) October 3, 2016[67] 38% 42% 7% 13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) September 21, 2016[67] 39% 44% 9% 8%
WTHR/Howey September 6–8, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 40% 44% 5% 11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) September 1, 2016[67] 35% 44% 6% 15%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bayh) August 15–18, 2016 801 ± 3.5% 39% 55% 6%
Monmouth University August 13–16, 2016 403 ± 4.9% 41% 48% 4% 7%
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP) August 10–14, 2016 801 ± 3.5% 36% 54% 10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) August 8, 2016[67] 35% 48% 7% 10%
Expedition Strategies (R-Gregg) August 1–3, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 32% 58% 9%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-DSCC) July 12–14, 2016 602 ± 4.1% 33% 54% 13%

Results

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2016 [68]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Todd Young 1,423,991 52.11% -2.49%
Democratic Evan Bayh 1,158,947 42.41% +2.40%
Libertarian Lucy Brenton 149,481 5.47% +0.08%
Independent James L. Johnson, Jr. (write-in) 127 0.01% N/A
Total votes 2,732,546 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

References

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  2. Francisco, Brian (November 2, 2011). "Coats gets head start on 2016". Journal Gazette. Retrieved September 21, 2013.
  3. "Tully: Dan Coats weighing another term in Senate". IndyStar.com. March 4, 2014. Retrieved October 12, 2014.
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  5. Maureen Groppe (July 12, 2016). "Few former senators have done what Bayh might do". IndyStar.
  6. Brian Howey (January 30, 2015). "If Sen. Coates doesn't run, who does?". KokomoPerspective.com. Retrieved February 3, 2015.
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  55. https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/hubbard-kittle-back-rep-young-to-get-in-senate-race
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Official campaign websites
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