2016 United States Senate election in Vermont
The 2016 United States Senate election in Vermont was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Vermont, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 9.
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| Elections in Vermont |
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Incumbent Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy, the most senior member in the Senate and the longest-serving U.S. Senator in Vermont history as well as the only Democrat to ever be elected to a Senate seat in Vermont, won re-election to a record eighth term in office.[1]
Democratic primary
Declared
- Cris Ericson, perennial candidate, later ran as Marijuana Party nominee (also ran for Governor)[2]
- Patrick Leahy, incumbent U.S. Senator
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patrick Leahy (incumbent) | 62,412 | 89.15% | |
| Democratic | Cris Ericson | 7,595 | 10.85% | |
| Total votes | 70,007 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Declared
- Scott Milne, businessman, candidate for the State House in 2006 and nominee for Governor in 2014[4][5]
Liberty Union primary
This election was the last in which Diamondstone ran prior to his death in 2017. Diamondstone had run for Vermont statewide office in every biennial election since 1970.
Declared
- Peter Diamondstone, LU party co-founder, lawyer, and perennial candidate[6]
Other candidacies
General election
Candidates
- Patrick Leahy (D)
- Scott Milne (R)
- Jerry Trudell (I)
- Peter Diamondstone (LU)
- Cris Ericson (MJ)
Predictions
Polls and predictions show the race as being safely Democratic.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[8] | Safe D | September 9, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Safe D | September 19, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[10] | Safe D | September 2, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[11] | Safe D | September 16, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[12] | Safe D | September 15, 2016 |
Debates
| Dates | Location | Leahy | Milne | Ericson | Trudell | Diamondstone | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 18, 2016 | Burlington, Vermont | Participant | Participant | Participant | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Patrick Leahy (D) |
Scott Milne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 454 | ± 4.6% | 75% | 24% | — | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 447 | ± 4.6% | 75% | 24% | — | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 449 | ± 4.6% | 69% | 28% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 424 | ± 4.6% | 65% | 32% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 428 | ± 4.6% | 64% | 34% | — | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 436 | ± 4.6% | 64% | 33% | — | 3% |
| Braun Research/WCAX | October 19–22, 2016 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 64% | 29% | 3% | 5% |
| Castleton University | September 29 – October 14, 2016 | 579 | ± 3.9% | 59% | 22% | 7% | 10% |
| Emerson College | September 2–5, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 57% | 34% | 4% | 5% |
| Castleton University | July 11–23, 2016 | 637 | ± 3.9% | 62% | 23% | 1% | 11% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patrick Leahy (incumbent) | 192,243 | 61.26% | -3.10% | |
| Republican | Scott Milne | 103,637 | 33.03% | +2.10% | |
| Marijuana | Cris Ericson | 9,156 | 2.92% | +1.76% | |
| Independent | Jerry Trudell | 5,223 | 1.66% | N/A | |
| Liberty Union | Peter Diamondstone | 3,241 | 1.03% | +0.42% | |
| Write-in | Write-ins | 309 | 0.10% | N/A | |
| Total votes | '313,809' | '100.0%' | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
References
- Emily Cahn; Alexis Levinson (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 29, 2015. Retrieved January 29, 2015.
- O'Gorman, Josh (May 27, 2016). "Voters to see familiar faces and new races". The Rutland Herald. Archived from the original on May 30, 2016. Retrieved June 2, 2016.
- "Vermont Results". Politico. August 24, 2010. Retrieved August 24, 2010.
- Heintz, Paul (October 5, 2015). "Scott Milne Considers Challenging Patrick Leahy". Seven Days. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
- Gram, Dave (May 26, 2016). "Milne hopes to unseat Sen. Leahy". The Burlington Free Press. Retrieved May 27, 2016.
- "Candidates register to appear on ballots". The Burlington Free Press. Retrieved June 5, 2016.
- "Jerry Trudell for Senate VT". Archived from the original on October 25, 2016. Retrieved October 24, 2016.
- "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 9, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 9, 2016.
- "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
- "2016 Senate Ratings (September 2, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2016.
- "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved September 17, 2016.
- "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 15, 2016.
- "Vermont Election Results". Burlington Free Press. Retrieved January 29, 2017.
- "Official Results - General Election - November 8, 2016". Vermont Secretary of State. November 8, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2016.
External links
Official campaign websites (Archived)
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