Statistics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

This article presents official statistics gathered during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

Main article: COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

The CDC publishes official numbers, originally every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday and reports several categories of cases: individual travelers, people who contracted the disease from other people within the U.S., and repatriated citizens who returned to the U.S. from crisis locations, such as Wuhan, where the disease originated, and the cruise ship Diamond Princess.[1]

However, multiple sources noted that statistics on confirmed coronavirus cases were misleading, since the shortage of tests meant the actual number of cases was much higher than the number of cases confirmed.[2][3] The number of deaths confirmed to be due to coronavirus was likely to be an undercount for the same reason.[4][5][6][7]

Excess mortality from March 1 to April 4 was higher than the number of confirmed deaths.

Excess mortality[8] comparing deaths for all causes versus the seasonal average is more reliable.[9] It counts additional deaths which are not explained by official reported coronavirus mortality statistics.[10] The CDC says it will issue an official estimate of coronavirus deaths in 2021—current estimates may not be reliable.[4]

The following numbers are based on CDC data, which is incomplete. In most U.S. locations, testing for some time was performed only on symptomatic people with a history of travel to Wuhan or with close contact to such people.[11][12][13] CDC testing protocols did not include non-travelling patients with no known contact with China until February 28.[14]

Measuring case and mortality rates
Deceased individuals in a 53-foot "mobile morgue" outside a hospital in Hackensack, New Jersey on April 27, 2020

By March 26, the United States, with the world's third-largest population, surpassed China and Italy as the country with the world's highest number of confirmed cases.[15] By April 25, the U.S. had more than 905,000 confirmed coronavirus cases and nearly 52,000 deaths, giving it a mortality rate around 5.7 percent. (In comparison, Spain's mortality rate was 10.2 percent and Italy's was 13.5 percent.)[16][17]

In April, more than 10,000 American deaths had occurred in nursing homes. Most nursing homes did not have easy access to testing, making the actual number unknown.[18] Subsequently, a number of states including Maryland[19] and New Jersey[20] reported their own estimates of deaths at nursing homes, ranging from twenty to fifty percent of the states' total deaths. A PNAS report in September confirmed that the virus is much more dangerous for the elderly than the young, noting that about 70% of all U.S. COVID-19 deaths had occurred to those over the age of 70.[21] In April, President Trump had established a Coronavirus Commission for Safety and Quality in Nursing Homes.[22][23]

As of early August 2020, among the 45 countries that had over 50,000 cases, the U.S. had the eighth highest number of deaths per-capita. Its case fatality ratio, however, was significantly better where it ranked 24th in the world, with 3.3% of its cases resulting in death.[24] Several studies suggest both that the number of infections is far higher than officially reported, and thus that the infection fatality rate is far lower than the case fatality rate.[25][26]

The CDC estimates that 40 percent of people infected will never show symptoms (asymptomatic),[27] although there is a 75% chance they can still spread the disease. And while children have a lower risk of becoming ill or dying, the CDC warns that they can still function as asymptomatic carriers and transmit the virus to adults.[27] The American Academy of Pediatrics's weekly report[28] from when states started reporting to September 17 tracked 587,948 child COVID-19 cases, 5,016 child hospitalizations, and 109 child deaths.[29]

In counting actual confirmed cases, some have questioned the reliability of totals reported by different countries. Measuring rates reported by countries such as China or Iran have been questioned as potentially inaccurate.[30] In mid-April 2020, China revised its case totals much higher and its death toll up by 50% for Wuhan, partly as a result of a number of countries having questioned China's official numbers.[31] Iran's rates have also been disputed, as when the WHO's reports about their case counts were contradicted by top Iranian health officials.[32] Within the U.S., there are also discrepancies in rates between different states. After a group of epidemiologists requested revisions in how the CDC counts cases and deaths, the CDC in mid-April updated its guidance for counting COVID-19 cases and deaths to include both confirmed and probable ones, although each state can still determine what to report.[33] Without accurate reporting of cases and deaths, however, epidemiologists have difficulty in guiding government response.[34]

State by state
[show all]
COVID-19 pandemic in the United States by state and territory
U.S. state or territory[lower-roman 1] Cases[lower-roman 2] Deaths Recov.[lower-roman 3] Hosp.[lower-roman 4] Ref.
56 / 56 25,108,925[lower-roman 5] 418,328[lower-roman 5] – –
Alabama 459,639 7,688 242,143 41,859 [35]
Alaska 52,598 260 7,165 1,179 [36]
American Samoa 3 0 – – [37]
Arizona 762,145 13,124 – 52,986 [38]
Arkansas 295,268 4,868 273,216 13,610 [39]
California 3,281,271 41,811 – – [40]
Colorado 396,179 5,637[lower-roman 6] – 21,833 [41]
Connecticut 250,023 7,046 – 12,257 [42][43]
Delaware 78,071 1,090 18,371 – [44]
District of Columbia 37,008 916 25,915 – [45]
Florida[lower-roman 7] 1,744,619 27,472 – 73,266 [46]
Georgia 749,867 14,198 – 50,237 [47]
Guam 7,608 129 7,377 – [48]
Hawaii 25,943 410 11,385 1,699 [49]
Idaho 163,165 1,735 46,247 6,674 [50][51]
Illinois 1,128,613 21,273 – – [52]
Indiana 629,903 9,677 409,565 40,570 [53][54]
Iowa 320,340 4,919 286,309 – [55]
Kansas 229,079 2,879 – 5,800 [56]
Kentucky 355,877 3,611 42,684 16,404 [57][58]
Louisiana 394,909 8,743 344,321 – [59]
Maine 29,611 438 10,491 1,171 [60]
Maryland 348,749 7,037 – 31,614 [61]
Massachusetts 488,861 14,056 389,717 14,823 [62][63]
Michigan 606,488 15,402 463,106 – [64]
Minnesota 458,633 6,140 442,600 24,126 [65]
Mississippi 218,386 4,816 136,627 7,703 [66]
Missouri 456,530 6,739 – – [67]
Montana 81,555 961 62,778 3,080 [68]
Nebraska 162,849 1,587 80,829 4,784 [69]
Nevada 220,124 3,019 – – [70]
New Hampshire 42,697 735 23,046 857 [71]
New Jersey 627,221 21,301 – 60,125 [72]
New Mexico 139,875 2,403 43,091 7,832 [73]
New York 1,433,304 35,631[lower-roman 8] 129,378 89,995 [74]
North Carolina 739,500 9,046 521,475 – [75][76]
North Dakota 90,948 1,152 82,935 3,059 [77]
Northern Mariana Islands 133 2 29 4 [78]
Ohio 883,716 11,006 764,480 45,786 [79]
Oklahoma 381,430 3,423 348,836 21,478 [80]
Oregon 105,970 1,138 – 5,395 [81]
Pennsylvania 824,405 21,303 667,769 – [82]
Puerto Rico 109,747 1,272 – – [83]
Rhode Island 82,066 1,509 – 5,288 [84]
South Carolina 431,169 6,903 – – [85]
South Dakota 91,038 1,259 77,032 5,174 [86]
Tennessee 717,583 9,417 672,110 16,938 [87]
Texas 2,433,110 37,288 2,015,866[lower-roman 9] – [88]
US Virgin Islands 2,426 24 2,317 – [89]
Utah 258,697 1,055 176,211 9,421 [90]
Vermont 8,619 155 5,657 – [91]
Virginia 493,674 6,308 – 41,373 [92][93]
Washington 221,695 2,879 – 12,368 [94]
West Virginia 77,239 968 42,462 – [95]
Wisconsin 538,348 5,811 511,859 24,063 [96]
Wyoming 43,704 405 35,281 957 [97]
Most recent edit: 14:45, Friday, February 5, 2021 (UTC) · History of cases: United States
  1. Nationality and location of original infection may vary.
  2. Reported confirmed and probable cases. Actual case numbers are probably higher.
  3. "–" denotes that no data or only partial data currently available for that state, not that the value is zero.
  4. Cumulative hospitalizations from positive cases reported from the state or the primary source. If a state only reports total cases from suspect COVID-19 cases, then cumulative hospitalizations from suspect cases are used. Data may be partial.
  5. Sum of official state counts below. Not automatically updated.
  6. This figure, for Colorado, is for total deaths among confirmed cases, regardless of the attributed cause.
  7. Case and death figures in this chart for Florida include residents and non-residents.
  8. As of June 1, 2020, 5,740 deaths reported by the City of New York were not included in the count by the state, as the State of New York does not include probable COVID-19 deaths in its total.
  9. This figure is an estimate from the Texas Department of State Health Services.

Maps
  • Map of states and territories in the U.S. with number of confirmed cases as of November 28, 2020
      None confirmed
      <75,000 confirmed
      >75,000 confirmed
      >150,000 confirmed
      >300,000 confirmed
      >600,000 confirmed
  • Map of states and territories in the U.S. with number of confirmed deaths as of November 28, 2020
      None confirmed
      <125 confirmed
      >125 confirmed
      >500 confirmed
      >2,000 confirmed
      >8,000 confirmed
      >25,000 confirmed
  • Map of the outbreak in the United States by confirmed total infections per 100,000 people (as of February 4)
      10,000+
      3,000–10,000
      1,000–3,000
      300–1,000
      100–300
      30–100
      0–30
      No confirmed infected or no data

Progression charts

New daily cases

Number of new daily cases, with a seven-day moving average:[98]

Current hospitalizations

Current COVID-19-related hospitalizations[98] (chart):

Deaths per day

Number of new daily deaths, with a seven-day moving average:[98]

Weekly all-cause deaths

Weekly all-cause deaths in the U.S. based on CDC data (This data is projected deaths, rather than tabulated, and commonly takes three to eight weeks to reach a near-steady estimate), compared to the threshold for excess deaths:[99]

Deaths by age

Number of COVID-19 deaths by age as of February 3, 2021:[100][101]

Provisional COVID-19 deaths in the United States by age as of February 3, 2021
Age group Death count % of deaths Rate per
100,000
All ages 421,378 100% 128.4
Under 1y 44 <0.1% 1.2
1-4y 23 <0.1% 0.1
5-14y 67 <0.1% 0.1
15-24y 601 0.2% 1.4
25-34y 2,677 0.7% 5.8
35-44y 7,057 2% 16.9
45-54y 19,454 5% 47.6
55-64y 49,131 12% 115.7
65-74y 89,896 21% 285.5
75-84y 117,104 27% 733.3
85y and over 135,324 32% 2049.8

Deaths by state

COVID-19 deaths per million of the populations of each state, along with the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico,[102] as of January 27, 2021:

Testing charts

Tests per day

Daily new tests, smoothed via seven-day moving average:[98]

Daily new tests per 1000 people smoothed by seven-day moving average,[103][104] for the U.S. and top three countries by latest test rate (Note: these top 3 countries have smaller populations by roughly 2 orders of magnitude):

Test positivity rate

Test positivity rate for the U.S.,[98] smoothed via seven-day moving average. Test positivity rate is the ratio of positive tests to all tests conducted on the day:

Vaccine distribution

Vaccinations in the U.S. per day,[103] [98] with a seven-day moving average.

Cumulative vaccine doses administered in the U.S.[103][98]

Number of U.S. positive test individuals by state over time

Data for all state charts sourced from the Covid Tracking Project.[98]

> 1,000,000 positive test individuals

500,000-1,000,000 positive test individuals

300,000-500,000 positive test individuals

120,000–300,000 positive test individuals

< 120,000 positive test individuals

Death projections

On March 31, 2020, the CDC projected that eventually 100,000–240,000 Americans would die of coronavirus.[105] The lower end of the estimate was reached within two months after the CDC made its projection,[106] and the upper end was surpassed in November 2020.[107]

The CDC uses an ensemble forecast, meaning it receives predictions from multiple sources and aggregates them to make its own forecast. As of December 2020, the CDC included 37 modeling groups in its ensemble forecast and was predicting the death toll 4 weeks in advance.[108]

Examples:

  • At the end of May, the CDC correctly projected the death toll would surpass 115,000 by June 20.[109][110]
  • At the end of July, the CDC correctly projected the death toll would surpass 168,000 by August 22.[111]
  • In mid-October, the CDC correctly projected the cumulative number of deaths would reach 230,000–250,000 by mid-November.[111]

Comparisons

Other epidemics with U.S. death tolls over 100,000:

Notes
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  3. Myer, Robinson; Madrigal, Alexis (April 16, 2020). "A New Statistic Reveals Why America's COVID-19 Numbers Are Flat". The Atlantic. Retrieved April 19, 2020.
  4. Kliff, Sarah; Bosman, Julie (April 5, 2020). "Official Counts Understate the U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll". The New York Times. Retrieved April 5, 2020.
  5. Abdelmalek, Mark; Margolin, Josh; Katersky, Aaron; David, Eden (April 7, 2020). "Coronavirus death toll in US likely worse than numbers say". ABC News. Retrieved April 10, 2020.
  6. Brown, Emma; Reinhard, Beth; Davis, Aaron C. (April 5, 2020). "Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but being left out of the official count". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 10, 2020.
  7. Swan, Jonathan; Baker, Sam (May 6, 2020). "Trump and some top aides question the accuracy of virus death toll". Axios.
  8. "Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention—National Center for Health Statistics. Retrieved July 21, 2020.
  9. Wu J, McCann A, Katz J, Peltier E. "28,000 Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 22, 2020.
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