2022 United States Senate elections

Each block represents one of the one hundred seats in the U.S. Senate. "D_#" is a Democratic senator, "I_#" is an Independent senator, and "R_#" is a Republican senator. They are arranged so the parties are separated and a majority is clear by crossing the middle.

Several sites and individuals published predictions of competitive seats. These predictions looked at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent was running for reelection) and the other candidates, and the state's partisan lean (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assigned ratings to each seat, indicating the predicted advantage that a party had in winning that seat. Most election predictors used:

• "tossup": no advantage
• "tilt" (used by some predictors): minimal, smallest advantage
• "lean": slight advantage
• "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
• "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

In contrast to 2018, where Democrats were defending 10 seats in states Donald Trump won in 2016, Democrats have no seats won by Trump in 2020. However, the GOP is defending two seats in states President Joe Biden won.

Potentially competitive Republican-held seats up for election in 2022 include Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, three states Trump won; and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two states Biden won. However, Florida and Ohio resisted the nationwide shift toward Biden in the 2020 presidential election, with Trump winning Florida by 2.2% more and Ohio by 0.1% less than 2016. Iowa could also become competitive if incumbent United States Senator Chuck Grassley decides to retire (he would be 89 at the start of his next term if he decided to run).

Potentially competitive Democratic-held seats up for election in 2022 include Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire, all of which voted for Biden.[5][6] The Democrats have an advantage in New Hampshire (assuming their popular incumbent governor doesn't run) similar to the Republican advantages in Florida and Ohio. President Joe Biden overperformed on the 2016 Democratic statewide margins by 7% in New Hampshire.

Note: Candidates include those who declared as well as those who only filed paperwork.

Six-term Republican Richard Shelby was easily re-elected in 2016. Shelby, who will be 88 years old at the end of his term, is expected to make an announcement after Trump's impeachment trial.[45]

Three-term Republican Lisa Murkowski was re-elected in 2016. Former governor and vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin is considering a primary challenge to Murkowski,[46] as are others. Alaska adopted a top-four jungle primary system in 2020, with the ultimate winner being decided via ranked-choice voting. Characterizations of the state as a "Safe" or "Solid" Republican stronghold may change if Murkowski decides to change her party affiliation to Independent. The ranked choice system could mean that Murkowski would be a favorite as an Independent who would caucus with the Republicans in the Senate.

Incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly was elected in a 2020 special election.

Six-term senator and 2008 Republican presidential nominee John McCain was re-elected to this seat in 2016. However, he died on August 25, 2018, and former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl was appointed to replace him. Kyl resigned at the end of 2018 and was succeeded by outgoing U.S. Representative Martha McSally, who lost the 2020 special election to complete the term.

Republican governor Doug Ducey, who is term-limited, has said he will not run for Senate in 2022.[47]

Two-term Republican John Boozman was re-elected in 2016. Boozman has not publicly announced plans to run for a third term, but has filed a formal Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission[48] and confirmed to CNN that he is running.[49] Dan Whitfield, who attempted to run as an independent for Arkansas' other U.S. Senate seat in 2020 but failed to meet the ballot access requirements,[50]is running as a Democrat.[51]

One-term Democrat Kamala Harris was elected in 2016, but resigned her seat on January 18, 2021, to take her seat as Vice President of the United States. On December 22, 2020, Governor Gavin Newsom announced his intention to appoint outgoing California Secretary of State Alex Padilla to continue Harris's remaining term. Padilla announced his intention to run for a full term in 2022.[52]

Democrat Michael Bennet was first elected in 2010. In his most recent election in 2016, he was re-elected with 49.97% over Republican Darryl Glenn.[53]

Two-term Democrat Richard Blumenthal was first elected to this seat in 2010 with 55.2% over Republican Linda McMahon. He was then re-elected in 2016 with 63.2% over Republican Dan Carter.[54] Republican Robert F. Hyde is running.[55][56]

Two-term Republican Marco Rubio was re-elected in 2016. He announced on November 9, 2020, via Facebook, that he would be running for re-election.[20]

Possible Democratic candidates include U.S. Representative Val Demings,[57][58][59] State Representative Anna Eskamani,[58][60] Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried,[61] former U.S. Representative Gwen Graham,[61] U.S. Representative Stephanie Murphy,[58] and State Senator Jason Pizzo.[58]

Former U.S. Representative David Jolly, who was previously a Republican but is now independent, is considering running.[62]

Declared NPA Candidate: Grace Granda, business consultant[63]

Democrat Raphael Warnock won the 2020–2021 special election against incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler to finish the unexpired term of Johnny Isakson, who resigned at the end of 2019. Loeffer was appointed by Governor Brian Kemp following Isakson's resignation.

Prior to Isakson's retirement and the Democratic Party's victory in the subsequent special election to replace him, former Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed was seen as a potential candidate to run in 2022.[64]

One-term Democrat Brian Schatz was appointed to the Senate in 2012 following the death of incumbent Daniel Inouye. He won a special election to finish Inouye's term in 2014 and won his first full term in 2016.

Four-term Republican Mike Crapo was re-elected in 2016.

One-term Democrat Tammy Duckworth was elected in 2016.

One-term Republican Todd Young was elected in 2016.

Seven-term Republican Chuck Grassley was re-elected in 2016. When asked by the Iowa Capital Dispatch in February 2020 if he would be running for re-election and said:

You'll have to ask me a year and a half from now. Now if you'd asked me that six years ago, I'd have said I'm running for re-election. But now that I'm 86, I better make sure I can see myself to be 95 years old… Now the one thing I want to make sure of is, that I don't become a Senator Byrd, where, the last two years on office, I have to have a nurse with me. Or when [Strom] Thurmond left office at 100 years and three months, but the last couple of years, he needed a lot of help.

He also said that he would decide whether to run again "eight months to a year before the 2022 election".[65]

Should Grassley retire, potential Republican candidates include his grandson Speaker of the Iowa House of Representatives Pat Grassley and U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson[66]

Potential Democratic candidates include U.S. Representative Cindy Axne, former U.S Representative Abby Finkenauer, retired Admiral and former aide to U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy Michael T. Franken, attorney Kimberly Graham, 2020 U.S. Senate nominee Theresa Greenfield, businessman and teacher Eddie Mauro, Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand, and veteran Cal Woods.[67]

Two-term Republican Jerry Moran was re-elected in 2016. He has announced that he will be seeking re-election.[23] Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo may challenge Moran in the primary.[68]

Two-term Republican Rand Paul was re-elected in 2016.

One-term Republican John Kennedy was elected in 2016.

Louisiana governor John Bel Edwards, who will be term-limited in 2023, may run in the jungle primary.[69]

One-term Democrat Chris Van Hollen was elected in 2016. He has not announced whether or not he will seek a second term, however he has filed papers to run again with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).[70]

Two-term Republican Roy Blunt was re-elected in 2016. He is seeking re-election.[25]

Former Governor of Missouri Eric Greitens may run in the Republican primary.[71]

Tech executive and LGBT rights activist Tim Shepard has declared he is running for the Democratic Nomination[72]

One-term Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto was elected in 2016.

One-term Democrat Maggie Hassan was elected in 2016. She is running for reelection.[28]

Retired U.S. Army general Don Bolduc has declared his candidacy as a Republican, having previously run in the 2020 Republican primary in New Hampshire.[73][74]

Former Senator Kelly Ayotte[75] and Governor Chris Sununu[76] have also been speculated to be potential Republican candidates.

Four-term Democrat and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was re-elected in 2016. Sam Seder, the host of The Majority Report with Sam Seder, has expressed interest in challenging Schumer for the Democratic nomination. Human rights activist Khaled Salem is challenging Schumer in the primary.[29]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Democratic Congresswoman for New York's 14th congressional district, who successfully defeated long time incumbent Democrat Joe Crowley in an upset 2018 primary campaign, has been floated as a possible primary challenger to Schumer.[77]

Three-term Republican Richard Burr was re-elected in 2016. Burr has pledged to retire in 2022.[78]

Former U.S. Representative Mark Walker is running in the Republican primary.[79] Potential Republican candidates include U.S. Representative Ted Budd,[80] former Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest,[81] former U.S. Representative George Holding,[82] former Governor Pat McCrory,[83] North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore,[81] and Lara Trump, daughter-in-law of former President Donald Trump.[81][84]

State senator Jeff Jackson and former state senator Erica D. Smith are running in the Democratic primary.[85][86] Potential Democratic candidates include Governor Roy Cooper,[87] North Carolina Supreme Court Associate Justice Anita Earls,[88] state representative Grier Martin,[89] U.S. Representative Deborah K. Ross,[89] and Attorney General Josh Stein.[89]

Two-term Republican John Hoeven was re-elected in 2016. On February 5, 2021, Hoeven campaign spokesman Dan Larson has indicated Hoeven is running for re-election in 2022. [90][91]

Two-term Republican Rob Portman was re-elected in 2016. On January 25, 2021, he announced that he would not be running for re-election.[92]

Potential Democratic candidates include U.S. Representative Joyce Beatty,[93] Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley,[94] Columbus City Attorney Zach Klein,[95] U.S. Representative and 2020 presidential candidate Tim Ryan,[96][94] Franklin County Treasurer Cheryl Brooks Sullivan, Ohio House Minority Leader Emilia Sykes,[97] and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley.[94]

One-term Republican James Lankford won the 2014 special election to serve the remainder of former senator Tom Coburn's term, and Lankford won election to his first full term in 2016.

Four-term Democrat Ron Wyden was re-elected in 2016. He is seeking re-election.[38]

Two-term Republican Pat Toomey was re-elected in 2016. On October 5, 2020, Toomey announced that he will retire at the end of his term.[98]

Potential Democratic candidates include Montgomery County Commissioner Valerie Arkoosh,[98] U.S. Representatives Brendan Boyle,[98] Chrissy Houlahan,[98] Conor Lamb,[99] State Senator Sharif Street,[100][101] State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta,[98] Toomey's 2010 opponent Joe Sestak,[102] and former State Treasurer Joe Torsella.[98]

On January 1, 2021, Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman filed an exploratory committee with the FEC.[103] He also tweeted a link to his campaign to solicit donations for a potential run.[104]

Potential Republican candidates include State Senator Camera Bartolotta,[98] 2018 Senate candidate Jeff Bartos,[98] former U.S. Representative Ryan Costello,[98] 2018 gubernatorial candidate Paul Mango,[98] U.S. Attorney William McSwain,[98] Chester County Commissioner Michelle H. Kichline, state Representative Martina White, and current U.S. Representatives Dan Meuser,[98] Guy Reschenthaler,[98] Lloyd Smucker,[98] and Glenn Thompson.[98]

One-term Republican Tim Scott was appointed in 2013 and won election to his first full term in 2016. He had previously stated that if he decides to run for reelection in 2022, it would be his last time.[105]

Three-term Republican and Senate Minority Whip John Thune was re-elected in 2016.

Two-term Republican Mike Lee was re-elected in 2016.

The most senior senator, eight-term Democrat, and President Pro Tempore Patrick Leahy was re-elected in 2016. He has not indicated whether or not he will seek a ninth term.

Potential Republican candidates include Governor Phil Scott.[106]

Five-term Democrat Patty Murray was re-elected in 2016.

Two-term Republican Ron Johnson was re-elected in 2016. Johnson had pledged to retire in 2022,[107] but in 2019, he said he did not know if he would in fact seek a third term or not and would not rule anything out.[42]

Kenosha County Sheriff David Beth (R) has expressed an interest in running for the Senate.[108] Former Governor Scott Walker has said that he will not run.[109]

On October 23, 2020, Tom Nelson, current County Executive of Outagamie filed a as a Democrat.[44]

On June 26, 2020, the United States House of Representatives voted 232–180 to grant statehood to the District of Columbia,[110] but the bill, H.R. 51, failed in the Senate when the 116th Congress ended. On January 3, 2021, D.C. Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton reintroduced the bill at the start of the 117th Congress with a record 202 co-sponsors,[111] and on January 27, Senator Tom Carper of Delaware introduced a companion bill, S. 51, into the Senate with a record 38 co-sponsors.[112] As the Democratic Party retained its control of the House and narrowly regained that of the Senate after the 2020 elections, it is possible that the 117th Congress (2021-2023) will grant statehood to the District of Columbia. This would add two seats to the Senate, both of which would probably be filled in special elections during the 2022 election cycle. The addition of these two seats, extremely likely to be won by Democrats,[113] would have a significant effect on the nationwide partisan battle for control of the Senate. However, the Washington DC statehood bill would have to overcome a filibuster, which is unlikely to pass. Some Democrats such as Joe Manchin have indicate that they will not support ending the legislative filibuster.

In addition, a referendum on Puerto Rico's status was held on November 3, 2020. A majority (52.52%) of voters chose statehood.[114] It is also plausible that the 117th Congress will grant statehood to Puerto Rico. The 2020 platforms of both the Democratic[115] and Republican parties[116] (identical to the 2016 Republican Party platform as the party's National Committee readopted it by a resolution on August 22, 2020) express support for Puerto Rico's right to determine the future of its status. Both seats would likely be filled also in special elections during the 2022 election cycle. Unlike the District of Columbia, the partisan lean of Puerto Rico is somewhat unclear. While Latino Americans of Puerto Rican descent tend to vote for Democrats, many argue that Puerto Rico's heavily Catholic population[117] will result in Puerto Rico agreeing with the Republican Party on many social issues like abortion, religion in schools, and same-sex marriage.[118] In addition, Puerto Rico's incumbent non-voting member of the House of Representatives, Jenniffer González, is a Republican.

The incumbent shadow senators from D.C. and Puerto Rico may possibly run in these races.