2020 United States presidential election in Kansas

The 2020 United States presidential election in Kansas was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Kansas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Kansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Kansas
November 3, 2020
Turnout63.9%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 771,406 570,323
Percentage 56.18% 41.53%
County results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

 Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Kansas
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Although Trump won the state, Biden's 41.53 percent vote share represented the highest for a Democratic presidential nominee since 2008 — among Biden's best statewide increases of the election. His 14.65-point defeat represented the first time since 1916 that Kansas voted more Democratic than neighboring Missouri, where his margin of defeat was 16.54 points.

Biden's gains were powered by significant improvement in Kansas' suburbs and college towns: he became the first Democrat to carry Johnson County, the state's most populous and home to Overland Park and Olathe, since Woodrow Wilson in 1916;[3] the first Democrat ever to win Riley County, anchored by the Fort Riley military installation and Kansas State University;[4] and the first to win Shawnee County, home to the state capital of Topeka, since Bill Clinton's narrow plurality in 1992.[5]

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Kansas came from white voters, who supported Trump by 59%–38%. White voters with college degrees, however, split even for Trump and Biden. This result included a 64% showing for Trump among Protestants and a 74% showing among other Christians. Trump's best margin was 72% in rural areas, while Biden's was 52% in suburban counties.[6]

Primary elections

Canceled Republican primary
Further information: 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries § Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

On September 7, 2019, the Kansas Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[7] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[8][9] At its state convention held between January 31 and February 1, 2020, the state party voted to formally bind all 39 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[10][11]

Democratic primary
Further information: 2020 Kansas Democratic presidential primary

The Kansas Democratic primary was conducted entirely by mail. Votes were counted on May 2, 2020. Joe Biden was declared the winner.[12]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Kansas Democratic presidential primary[edit]
2020 Kansas Democratic presidential primary[13][14]
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Joe Biden 110,041 76.85% 29
Bernie Sanders (suspended) 33,142 23.15% 10
Total 143,183 100% 39

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Likely R September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[16] Lean R September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Likely R July 14, 2020
Politico[18] Likely R October 16, 2020
RCP[19] Safe R August 3, 2020
Niskanen[20] Safe R July 26, 2020
CNN[21] Safe R August 3, 2020
The Economist[22] Safe R September 2, 2020
CBS News[23] Likely R August 16, 2020
270towin[24] Safe R August 2, 2020
ABC News[25] Safe R July 31, 2020
NPR[26] Likely R August 3, 2020
NBC News[27] Likely R August 6, 2020
538[28] Safe R November 2, 2020

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
270 to Win September 26 – October 20, 2020 October 22, 2020 43.0% 51.7% 5.3% Trump +8.7
FiveThirtyEight until October 31, 2020 November 1, 2020 41.7% 51.8% 6.5% Trump +10.1
Average 42.4% 51.8% 5.8% Trump +9.4

Polls
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 2,321 (LV) ± 3% 55%[lower-alpha 3] 44% – – –
Data For Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 55% 41% 3% 2%[lower-alpha 4] –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 3,442 (LV) ± 2.5% 51% 47% – – –
PPP/Protect Our Care[upper-alpha 1] Oct 19–20, 2020 897 (V) ± 3.3% 54% 42% – – 4%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 18–20, 2020 755 (LV) ± 4% 48% 41% 4% 2%[lower-alpha 5] 6%[lower-alpha 6]
co/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PAC[upper-alpha 2] Oct 18–20, 2020 2,453 (LV) ± 3.7% 56% 39% 2% – 3%
Fort Hays State University Sep 21 – Oct 1, 2020 306 (RV) ± 4.8% 52% 38% – 11%[lower-alpha 7] –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 1,135 (LV) – 52% 47% – – 1%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Sep 26–29, 2020 677 (LV) ± 4.5% 52% 42% – 4%[lower-alpha 8] 1%
Data For Progress (D) Sep 14–19, 2020 883 (LV) ± 3.3% 48%[lower-alpha 9] 42% 3% 1%[lower-alpha 10] 7%
49%[lower-alpha 11] 45% – – 6%
co/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PAC[upper-alpha 2] Sep 15–16, 2020 794 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 41% – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 922 (LV) – 54% 45% – – 1%
SurveyUSA Aug 5–9, 2020 1,202 (LV) ± 3.3% 48% 41% – 5%[lower-alpha 12] 6%
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 3] Aug 5–6, 2020 864 (V) ± 3.3% 50% 43% – – 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 1,295 (LV) – 51% 47% – – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 466 (LV) – 53% 45% – – 2%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 30 – Jun 1, 2020 699 (RV) ± 4.2% 52% 40% – 6%[lower-alpha 13] 2%
The Progress Campaign (D) Apr 15–22, 2020 1,632 (LV) ± 4.7% 51% 41% – – 8%
Public Policy Polling Mar 10–11, 2020 1,567 (V) – 52% 40% – – 8%
DFM Research Jan 30 – Feb 6, 2020 600 (A) ±4% 51% 43% – 3%[lower-alpha 14] 3%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Michael
Bloomberg (D)		 Other Undecided
DFM Research Jan 30 – Feb 6, 2020 600 (A) ±4% 50% 43% 2%[lower-alpha 15] 4%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Undecided
The Progress Campaign (D) Feb 17, 2020 572 (RV) ± 5.2% 51% 40% 10%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling Mar 10–11, 2020 1,567 (V) – 52% 40% – 7%
The Progress Campaign (D) Feb 17, 2020 572 (RV) ± 5.2% 63% 26% – 11%
DFM Research Jan 30 – Feb 6, 2020 600 (A) ±4% 53% 43% 2%[lower-alpha 16] 1%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Other Undecided
The Progress Campaign (D) Feb 17, 2020 572 (RV) ± 5.2% 63% 32% – 5%
DFM Research Jan 30 – Feb 6, 2020 600 (A) ±4% 53% 41% 3%[lower-alpha 17] 3%

Results
2020 United States presidential election in Kansas[29]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		771,406 56.18% +0.02%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris		 570,323 41.53% +5.79%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 30,574 2.20% -2.44%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker		 669 0.05% -1.92%
American Solidarity Brian Carroll
Amar Patel		 583 0.04%
Write-in
Total votes 1,372,303 100%

By congressional district

Trump won 3 of the 4 congressional districts.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 70% 28% Roger Marshall
Tracey Mann
2nd 56% 42% Steve Watkins
Jake LaTurner
3rd 43% 54% Sharice Davids
4th 60% 38% Ron Estes

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes
  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. Hawkins (G) and "Other candidate/write-in" with 1%
  5. "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  6. Includes "Refused"
  7. "Neither of the two candidates" with 11%
  8. "Someone else" with 4%
  9. Standard VI response
  10. Hawkins (G) with 1%
  11. If only Trump and Biden were candidates
  12. "Some other candidate" with 5%
  13. "Someone else" with 6%
  14. "Someone else" with 3%
  15. "Someone else" with 2%
  16. "Someone else" with 2%
  17. "Someone else" with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  2. Keep Kansas Great PAC endorsed Marshall prior to this poll's sampling period
  3. Poll for EMILY's List, a Democratic PAC which seeks to elect pro-choice Democratic women to office

See also

References
  1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. Lowry, Bryan (November 8, 2020). "Johnson County shifted blue under Trump. Is the color durable or will it wash out?". Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  4. Pierce, Charles P. (November 9, 2020). "Down-Ballot Was Big Trouble for Democrats, But There Are Some Rainbows Out There". Retrieved December 3, 2020.
  5. "Letter to the editor: Some Kansas counties went for Biden". November 12, 2020. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
  6. "Kansas Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  7. Kinnard, Meg (September 7, 2019). "Nevada, SC, Kansas GOP drop presidential nomination votes". AP NEWS.
  8. Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". Boston Globe. MSN. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  9. Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  10. "Kansas GOP won't hold a caucus in 2020". KAKE. September 6, 2019.
  11. "Kansas Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
  12. Hanna, John (May 3, 2020). "Joe Biden Wins Kansas Primary Conducted Exclusively By Mail". HuffPost. Retrieved May 3, 2020.
  13. "View Kansas' 2020 primary results". www.cnn.com. CNN. Retrieved May 3, 2020.
  14. "KSDEMS: 2020 Primary Results.xlsx". Google Docs. Kansas Democratic Party. Retrieved May 3, 2020.
  15. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  16. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  17. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  18. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  19. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  20. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  21. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  22. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  23. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  24. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  25. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  26. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  27. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  28. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  29. "Candidates for the 2020 General". Kansas Secretary of State. Retrieved September 17, 2020.

Further reading
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