2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election
The 2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the Governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to one-third of the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Governor Roy Cooper was eligible to run for re-election to a second term in office, and announced his intention to do so on December 5, 2019.[1]
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County results Cooper: 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80–90% Forest: 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in North Carolina |
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Under a 2018 state law, party primary elections were held on March 3, 2020.[2]
Cooper was re-elected to a second term, defeating Republican nominee, Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest. Cooper's re-election win makes him the first Governor of North Carolina to win re-election since Mike Easley, who was re-elected in 2004. Once again, Cooper outperformed other Democrats on the ballot.
Democratic primary
Nominee
- Roy Cooper, incumbent Governor[1]
Eliminated in primary
- Ernest T. Reeves, retired U.S. Army captain and perennial candidate[3]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Roy Cooper |
Ernest Reeves |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High Point University | February 21–28, 2020 | 269 (LV) | – | 74% | 13% | 13% |
468 (RV) | – | 68% | 14% | 18% | ||
SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV | February 13–16, 2020 | 698 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 73% | 9% | 18% |
High Point University | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 198 (LV) | – | 80% | 8% | 12% |
400 (RV) | – | 69% | 10% | 21% | ||
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Roy Cooper (incumbent) | 1,128,829 | 87.19% | |
Democratic | Ernest T. Reeves | 165,804 | 12.81% | |
Total votes | 1,294,633 | 100.00% |
Republican primary
Eliminated in primary
Declined
- Pat McCrory, former Governor of North Carolina[7]
- Mark Meadows, former U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 11th congressional district, White House Chief of Staff[8]
Endorsements
- U.S. Representatives
- Mark Meadows former (NC-11) and current White House Chief of Staff[9]
- State and local officials
- Organizations
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Dan Forest |
Holly Grange |
Pat McCrory |
Undecided | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High Point University | February 21–28, 2020 | 246 (LV) | – | 74% | 13% | – | 13% | |||||||
443 (RV) | – | 64% | 12% | – | 24% | |||||||||
SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV | February 13–16, 2020 | 698 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 60% | 8% | – | 32% | |||||||
High Point University | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 198 (LV) | – | 67% | 8% | – | 25% | |||||||
400 (RV) | – | 54% | 10% | – | 36% | |||||||||
McCrory announces he will not run | ||||||||||||||
Harper Polling (R) | December 2–4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 31% | 3% | 42% | 25% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Dan Forest | 698,077 | 88.95% | |
Republican | Holly Grange | 86,714 | 11.05% | |
Total votes | 784,791 | 100.00% |
Other candidates
Nominee
- Steven J. DiFiore, candidate for Charlotte City Council in 2017, factory lighting representative[11]
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[13] | Likely D | October 23, 2020 |
Inside Elections[14] | Lean D | October 16, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Likely D | October 8, 2020 |
Politico[16] | Lean D | October 12, 2020 |
Daily Kos[17] | Likely D | October 19, 2020 |
RCP[18] | Lean D | July 29, 2020 |
270towin[19] | Likely D | October 23, 2020 |
Endorsements
- U.S. Presidents
- State and local officials
- Pete Buttigieg, former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020).[21]
- Organizations
- U.S. Executive Branch Officials
- Mark Meadows, White House Chief of Staff and former U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 11th Congressional District[9]
- Organizations
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Roy Cooper (D) |
Dan Forest (R) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Swayable | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 655 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 55% | 43% | 2%[lower-alpha 2] |
Frederick Polls (D)[upper-alpha 1] | October 30–31, 2020 | 676 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 45% | 3%[lower-alpha 3] |
Emerson College | October 29–31, 2020 | 855 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 55%[lower-alpha 4] | 45% | 1%[lower-alpha 5] |
CNN/SSRS | October 23–30, 2020 | 901 (LV) | ± 4% | 52% | 42% | 5%[lower-alpha 6] |
East Carolina University | October 27–28, 2020 | 1,103 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 54%[lower-alpha 7] | 43% | 2%[lower-alpha 8] |
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) | October 27–28, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 45% | 8%[lower-alpha 9] |
Marist College/NBC | October 25–28, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 59% | 40% | 1%[lower-alpha 10] |
Gravis Marketing | October 26–27, 2020 | 614 (LV) | ± 4% | 51% | 43% | 6%[lower-alpha 11] |
Meeting Street Insights (R) | October 24–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 51% | 43% | – |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | October 23–27, 2020 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 42% | 7%[lower-alpha 12] |
RMG Research | October 24–26, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 41% | 6%[lower-alpha 13] |
Swayable | October 23–26, 2020 | 386 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 53% | 44% | 3%[lower-alpha 14] |
SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV | October 23–26, 2020 | 627 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 42% | 6%[lower-alpha 15] |
YouGov/UMass Amherst | October 20–26, 2020 | 911 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 54% | 42% | 3%[lower-alpha 16] |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | October 22–25, 2020 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 42% | 5%[lower-alpha 17] |
Meredith College | October 16–19, 2020 | 732 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 34% | 16%[lower-alpha 18] |
East Carolina University | October 15–18, 2020 | 1,155 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 53% | 44% | 2%[lower-alpha 19] |
Emerson College | October 13–14, 2020 | 721 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 46% | 4%[lower-alpha 20] |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | October 11–14, 2020 | 1,211 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 53% | 46% | 1%[lower-alpha 21] |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | October 9–13, 2020 | 627 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 37% | 12%[lower-alpha 22] |
Monmouth University | October 8–11, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 44% | 5%[lower-alpha 23] |
500 (LV)[lower-alpha 24] | 52% | 44% | 3%[lower-alpha 25] | |||
500 (LV)[lower-alpha 26] | 51% | 46% | 3%[lower-alpha 27] | |||
SurveyUSA | October 8–11, 2020 | 669 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 52% | 39% | 10%[lower-alpha 28] |
RMG Research | October 7–11, 2020 | 800 (LV) | – | 51% | 37% | 12%[lower-alpha 29] |
Public Policy Polling | October 4–5, 2020 | 911 (V) | ± 3.3% | 52% | 40% | 8%[lower-alpha 30] |
East Carolina University | October 2–4, 2020 | 1,232 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 40% | 7%[lower-alpha 31] |
ALG Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] | September 22–28, 2020 | 822 (V) | – | 53% | 43% | – |
YouGov/UMass Lowell | September 18–25, 2020 | 921 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 54% | 41% | 4%[lower-alpha 32] |
Meredith College | September 18–22, 2020 | 705 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 39% | 11%[lower-alpha 33] |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | September 17–20, 2020 | 612 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 46% | 39% | 14%[lower-alpha 34] |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | September 11–16, 2020 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 42% | 10%[lower-alpha 35] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 12–15, 2020 | 1,092 (LV) | ± 2.97% | 55% | 36% | 9%[lower-alpha 36] |
Suffolk University | September 10–14, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 38% | 12%[lower-alpha 37] |
SurveyUSA | September 10–13, 2020 | 596 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 49% | 42% | 10%[lower-alpha 38] |
CNN/SSRS | September 9–13, 2020 | 787 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 53% | 44% | 2%[lower-alpha 39] |
893 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 53% | 42% | 5%[lower-alpha 40] | ||
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report | August 29 – September 13, 2020 | 1,116 (RV) | – | 48% | 38% | 14%[lower-alpha 41] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 30 – September 3, 2020 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.18% | 54% | 35% | 11%[lower-alpha 42] |
Monmouth University | August 29 – September 1, 2020 | 401 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 40% | 8%[lower-alpha 43] |
401 (LV)[lower-alpha 44] | 51% | 42% | 7%[lower-alpha 45] | |||
401 (LV)[lower-alpha 46] | 51% | 42% | 7%[lower-alpha 47] | |||
East Carolina University | August 29–30, 2020 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 40% | 10%[lower-alpha 48] |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | August 16–19, 2020 | 967 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 38% | 11%[lower-alpha 49] |
East Carolina University | August 12–13, 2020 | 1,255 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 38% | 11%[lower-alpha 50] |
Emerson College | August 8–10, 2020 | 673 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 44% | 7%[lower-alpha 51] |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | August 6–10, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 13%[lower-alpha 52] |
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 3] | July 23–24, 2020 | 884 (V) | ± 3.4% | 53% | 42% | 5%[lower-alpha 53] |
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) | July 22–24, 2020 | 735 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 46% | 8%[lower-alpha 54] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | July 19–23, 2020 | 919 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 37% | 12%[lower-alpha 55] |
Marist College/NBC News | July 14–22, 2020 | 882 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 58% | 38% | 4%[lower-alpha 56] |
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) | July 13–15, 2020 | 547 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 46% | 5%[lower-alpha 57] |
East Carolina University | June 22–25, 2020 | 1,149 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 38% | 13%[lower-alpha 58] |
Public Policy Polling | June 22–23, 2020 | 1,157 (V) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 41% | 10%[lower-alpha 59] |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | June 8–18, 2020 | 653 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 39% | 11%[lower-alpha 60] |
Gravis Marketing (R) | June 17, 2020 | 631 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | June 14–17, 2020 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 31% | 17%[lower-alpha 61] |
Public Policy Polling | June 2–3, 2020 | 913 | ± 3.2% | 50% | 39% | 11%[lower-alpha 62] |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | May 26–28, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 37% | 14%[lower-alpha 63] |
Neighbourhood Research & Media | May 12–21, 2020 | 391 (LV) | – | 47% | 35% | 18% |
Meeting Street Insights (R) | May 9–13, 2020 | 500 (RV) | – | 55% | 37% | 8% |
East Carolina University | May 7–9, 2020 | 1,111 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 36% | 13% |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | May 2–4, 2020 | 1,362 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 44% | 3% |
Meredith College | April 27–28, 2020 | 604 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 32% | 16% |
SurveyUSA | April 23–26, 2020 | 580 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 57% | 30% | 13%[lower-alpha 64] |
Public Policy Polling | April 20–21, 2020 | 1,275 (V) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 40% | 7% |
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) | April 13–18, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 55% | 36% | 9% |
Public Policy Polling | April 14–15, 2020 | 1,318 (V) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 36% | 13% |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | April 5–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 33% | 17% |
East Carolina University | February 27–28, 2020 | 1,288 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | October 15–17, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
Meredith College | September 29 – October 7, 2019 | 996 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 33% | 21% |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | August 1–4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 36% | 16% |
Public Policy Polling | June 17–18, 2019 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Harper Polling (R) | June 8–10, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 37% | 16% |
Emerson College | May 31 – June 3, 2019 | 932 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 52% | 38% | 10% |
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 4] | May 25 – June 1, 2019 | 730 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
Public Policy Polling | January 4–7, 2019 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 35% | 18% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Roy Cooper (incumbent) | 2,834,790 | 51.51% | +2.49% | |
Republican | Dan Forest | 2,586,605 | 47.01% | -1.79% | |
Libertarian | Steven J. DiFiore | 60,449 | 1.10% | -1.09% | |
Constitution | Al Pisano | 20,934 | 0.38% | N/A | |
Total votes | 5,502,778 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Turnout | 5,545,847 | 75.35% | |||
Registered electors | 7,359,798 | ||||
Democratic hold |
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
- Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
- Poll sponsored by Piedmont Rising, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
- This poll's sponsor, AFSCME, had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
- Poll sponsored by the North Carolina Republican Party
- General
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - DiFiore (L) with 2%; Pisano (C) with 0%
- DiFiore (L) with 2%; Pisano (C) with 1%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- "Someone else" with 1%
- DiFiore (L) with 3%; Pisano (C) with 1%; "Other" with 0%; "None of these" with no voters; Undecided with 1%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- "Refused" and "Some other candidate" with 1%; Did/would not vote with 0%; Undecided with no voters
- DiFiore (L) with 3%; Pisano (C) with 1%; Undecided with 4%
- "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 1%
- Undecided with 6%
- DiFiore (L), Pisano (C) and would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 4%
- "Someone else" and Undecided with 3%
- DiFiore (L) with 2%; Pisano (C) with 1%
- "Other" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
- "Another candidate" with 0%; Did not vote with no voters; Undecided with 3%
- DiFiore (L) with 1%; Pisano (C) with 0%; Undecided with 4%
- DiFiore (L) with 2%; Pisano (C) with 1%; Undecided with 13%
- "Some other candidate" and would/did not vote with 1%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 1%
- Undecided with 4%
- DiFiore (L) with 1%; Pisano (C), "Someone else" and Undecided with 0%
- DiFiore (L) with 2%; Pisano (C) with 1%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 9%
- DiFiore (L) and "No one" with 1%; Pisano (C) with 0%; "Other candidate" with no voters; Undecided with 3%
- With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
- "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 2%
- With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
- "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 2%
- "Some other candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 8%
- DiFiore (L) with 3%; Undecided with 9%
- Undecided with 8%
- "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 4%
- "Another candidate" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
- DiFiore (L) with 2%; Pisano (C) with 1%; Undecided with 8%
- DiFiore (L) and Pisano (C) with 1%; Undecided with 12%
- Pisano (C) with 2%; DiFiore (L) with 1%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 7%
- "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 7%
- DiFiore (L) with 5%; Pisano (C) with 1%; "Other" and "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
- "Another candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
- DiFiore (L) with 1%; "None of these" and Pisano (C) with 0%; "Other" with no voters; Undecided with 1%
- DiFiore (L) with 2%; "None of these" with 1%; "Other" and Pisano (C) with 0%; Undecided with 2%
- "Neither/Another Party" with 1% "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 12%
- "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 9%
- DiFiore (L) with 3%; "No one" and Pisano (C) with 1%; "Other candidate" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
- With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- "Other" with 5%; Undecided with 2%
- With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- "Other" with 5%; Undecided with 2%
- "Some other candidate" with 2%; Would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 8%
- "Third party/write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 9%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 7%
- Undecided with 7%
- DiFiore (L) and Pisano (C) with 1%; Undecided with 11%
- Undecided with 5%
- Pisano (C) with 0.9%, DiFiore (L) with 0.7%; Undecided with 5.9%
- "Third party/write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
- "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
- Undecided with 3.7%; DiFore with 0.5%; Pisano with 0.4%
- Undecided with 8%; "Some other candidate" with 5%
- Undecided with 10%
- Undecided with 10%; "Another candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
- Undecided with 14%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
- Undecided with 11%
- Undecided with 13%; Pisano (C) with 1%; DiFiore (L) with 0%
- Undecided with 13%
References
- @RoyCooperNC (December 5, 2019). "I've officially filed for re-election! Together, we've made real progress, but there is more work to be done. If you're with me, sign up to join our team → act.roycooper.com/join-our-team" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- North Carolina General Assembly
- Robertson, Gary D. (December 20, 2019). "N Carolina candidates rush for legislature, Meadows' seat". Raleigh News & Observer. Retrieved December 20, 2019.
- "North Carolina State Primary Election Results 2020". North Carolina Board of Elections. June 3, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- "Dan Forest will hold campaign kick off rally in August". North State Journal. July 10, 2019. Retrieved July 10, 2019.
- Murphy, Brian; Specht, Paul (July 18, 2019). "State lawmaker, Army veteran Grange joins Republican race for governor". www.newsobserver.com. The News & Observer.
- Fain, Travis (December 19, 2019). "No gubernatorial run for McCrory, but he's eyeing US Senate in 2022". WRAL. Retrieved December 19, 2019.
- Murphy, Brian (October 4, 2017). "Forest isn't officially running yet, but he's earned a big endorsement for governor". The News & Observer. Retrieved November 14, 2018.
- Murphy, Brian (October 4, 2017). "Forest isn't officially running yet, but he's earned a big endorsement for governor". The News & Observer.
- "Dan Forest".
- "State Board of Elections: Candidate list by contest" (PDF).
- Batten, Taylor. "For bedrock conservatives, an alternative to the Republican Party". Charlotte Observer.
- "2020 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2019.
- "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-03-16.
- "2020 Governor". Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball. 2019-08-22. Retrieved 2019-09-26.
- "We rated every gubernatorial race in 2020. Here's who we think will win". Politico. Retrieved November 19, 2019.
- "2020 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 1, 2020. Retrieved June 5, 2020.
- "2020 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. June 13, 2020. Retrieved June 14, 2020.
- "2020 Gubernatorial Elections Map". 270towin.
- Obama, Barack (August 3, 2020). "First Wave of 2020 Endorsements". Medium.
- Merica, Dan (May 13, 2020). "Buttigieg highlights importance of local officials in first post-campaign endorsements". CNN. Retrieved May 14, 2020.
- "Equality North Carolina Releases Final Round Of 2020 Electoral Endorsements". Equality NC. April 23, 2020.
- Associated Press, Roy Cooper, Dan Forest Agree to Oct. 14 Debate, Spectrum News (August 27, 2020).
- "State Composite Abstract Report - Contest.pdf" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
- "NC SBE Contest Results". er.ncsbe.gov. Retrieved 18 December 2020..
External links
- "League of Women Voters of North Carolina". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- National Institute on Money in Politics; Campaign Finance Institute, "North Carolina 2019 & 2020 Elections", Followthemoney.org
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "North Carolina", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "North Carolina: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- Official campaign websites