2020 United States presidential election in Vermont

2020 United States presidential election in Vermont
	November 3, 2020
	November 3, 2020
Turnout	73.27%[1]
Biden 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%	Trump 50–60%
	Municipality Results
President before election; Donald Trump; Republican	Elected President ; Joe Biden; Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Vermont was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Vermont voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Vermont has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Vermont was won by Biden with 66.1% of the vote. Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations projected Vermont as a strongly Democratic state, or a safe blue state. The Green Mountain State gave Biden a victory margin of 35.4% over Trump. Vermont gave Biden his highest vote percentage and margin of victory of any state, making this the first ever presidential election in which Vermont was the most Democratic state in the nation. Vermont also saw the largest increase in turnout from 2016, increasing 14.3%.[4] Biden greatly improved on Hillary Clinton's 55.7% vote share and 25.9% margin from 2016, when third party candidates received over 14% of the vote.[5] Biden's performance was also the fourth-strongest Democratic performance in state history. Trump carried only one county, the sparsely-populated Essex County bordering New Hampshire, which had voted for the winner from 1980 to 2016.

Another factor for Biden's improvement was strong support from Bernie Sanders, one of the state's U.S. Senators and a former candidate for the 2020 Democratic nomination who, despite endorsing Hillary Clinton, had received 5.7% of the vote in 2016 as a non-soliciting write-in candidate. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Sanders maintained a 63% approval rating among his constituents, and his supporters broke 93% for Biden.[6]

Primary elections

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on March 3, 2020. Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.

2020 Vermont Republican primary[7]
Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates[8]
Donald Trump	33,984	86.49	17
Bill Weld	3,971	10.11	0
Rocky De La Fuente	341	0.87	0
Write-ins	480	1.22	0
Overvotes	37	0.09	0
Blank votes	478	1.22	0
Total	39,291	100%	17

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. Bernie Sanders, one of the two current senators from Vermont and a 2016 Democratic primary candidate, declared his candidacy on February 19, 2019, after speculation he would do so.[9][10] Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, and Elizabeth Warren were among the other major declared candidates.[11][12]

Popular vote share by county

Sanders—40–50%

Sanders—50–60%

2020 Vermont Democratic presidential primary[13]
Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates[14]
Bernie Sanders	79,921	50.57	11
Joe Biden	34,669	21.94	5
Elizabeth Warren	19,785	12.52	0
Michael Bloomberg	14,828	9.38	0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†)	3,709	2.35	0
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†)	1,991	1.26	0
Tulsi Gabbard	1,303	0.82	0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn†)	591	0.37	0
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†)	202	0.13	0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn†)	137	0.09	0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	135	0.09	0
Mark Stewart	110	0.07	0
Julian Castro (withdrawn)	52	0.03	0
Write-ins[lower-alpha 1]	219	0.14	0
Overvotes	57	0.04	0
Blank votes	323	0.20	0
Total	158,032	100%	16

†Candidate withdrew after no-excuse, in-person absentee voting started.

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[15]	Safe D	September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[16]	Safe D	September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17]	Safe D	July 14, 2020
Politico[18]	Safe D	September 8, 2020
RCP[19]	Safe D	August 3, 2020
Niskanen[20]	Safe D	July 26, 2020
CNN[21]	Safe D	August 3, 2020
The Economist[22]	Safe D	September 2, 2020
CBS News[23]	Likely D	August 16, 2020
270towin[24]	Safe D	August 2, 2020
ABC News[25]	Safe D	July 31, 2020
NPR[26]	Likely D	August 3, 2020
NBC News[27]	Safe D	August 6, 2020
538[28]	Safe D	September 9, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls


Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 2]	Margin
FiveThirtyEight	until October 27, 2020	October 28, 2020	64.4%	29.1%	6.5%	Biden +35.3

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	906 (LV)	± 4.5%	26%[lower-alpha 4]	71%	-	-	–	–
co/efficient/Scott Milne for Lt. Governor[upper-alpha 1]	Oct 19–29, 2020	584 (LV)	± 4.05%	32%	62%	-	-	–	6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	1,167 (LV)	–	29%	69%	-	-	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	427 (LV)	–	34%	64%	-	-	–	2%
Braun Research/VPR	Sep 3–15, 2020	582 (LV)	± 4%	32%	56%	-	-	8%[lower-alpha 5]	3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	236 (LV)	–	29%	70%	-	-	–	0%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	368 (LV)	–	27%	71%	-	-	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	113 (LV)	–	20%	75%	-	-	–	5%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Vermont[29]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	242,820	65.46%	+9.74%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	112,704	30.38%	+0.62%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	3,608	0.97%	-2.17%
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	1,310	0.35%	-1.76%
	Independent	Kanye West Michelle Tidball	1,269	0.34%	N/A
	Grumpy Old Patriots	H. Brooke Paige Thomas Witman	1,175	0.32%	N/A
	Independent	Christopher LaFontaine Michael Speed	856	0.23%	N/A
	Independent	Richard Duncan Mitch Bupp	213	0.06%	N/A
	American Solidarity	Brian Carroll Amar Patel	209	0.06%	N/A
	Constitution	Don Blankenship William Mohr	208	0.06%	+0.04%
	Socialist Workers	Alyson Kennedy Malcolm Jarrett	195	0.05%	N/A
	Liberty Union	Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman	166	0.04%	-0.06%
	Boiling Frog	Gary Swing David Olszta	141	0.04%	N/A
	Prohibition	Phil Collins Billy Joe Parker	137	0.04%	N/A
	Bull Moose	Keith McCormic Sam Blasiak	126	0.03%	N/A
	Independent	Brock Pierce Karla Ballard	100	0.03%	N/A
	Bread and Roses	Jerome Segal John De Graaf	65	0.02%	N/A
	Approval Voting	Blake Huber Frank Atwood	54	0.01%	N/A
	Independent	Kyle Kopitke Taja Ivanow	53	0.01%	N/A
	Alliance	Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson	48	0.01%	N/A
	Independent	Zachary Scalf Matthew Lyda	29	0.00%	N/A
	Write-in		1,942	0.53%
Total votes			367,428	100.00%

Results by county

[30]

County	Joe Biden	Votes	Donald Trump	Votes	Third-Parties / Others	Votes	Jo Jorgensen	Votes	Howie Hawkins	Votes	Others	Votes	Total
	Democratic		Republican				Libertarian		Green
Addison	67.4%	14,967	28.3%	6,292	4.3%	953	1.1%	243	0.3%	69	2.9%	641	22,212
Bennington	61.5%	12,705	34.5%	7,114	2.7%	549	0.97%	200	0.35%	72	1.3%	277	20,640
Caledonia	55.2%	9,011	40.1%	6,551	4.7%	772	1%	167	0.4%	66	3.3%	539	16,334
Chittenden	75.1%	74,961	21%	21,017	3.9%	3,881	0.9%	882	0.4%	372	2.6%	2,627	99,859
Essex	42.4%	1,405	53.5%	1,773	4.2%	139	1.2%	40	0.2%	7	2.8%	92	3,317
Franklin	52.2%	13,611	43.2%	11,274	4.6%	1,199	1.3%	335	0.2%	59	3%	805	26,084
Grand Isle	59.1%	2,905	36.8%	1,810	4.1%	197	0.7%	35	0.2%	12	3.1%	150	4,912
Lamoille	67.9%	10,240	27.6%	4,163	4.6%	689	1.1%	168	0.3%	44	3.2%	477	15,092
Orange	59.5%	10,304	35.7%	6,187	4.8%	836	0.9%	162	0.3%	57	3.6%	617	17,327
Orleans	50.3%	7,147	45.8%	6,512	3.9%	556	0.9%	133	0.2%	35	2.7%	388	14,215
Rutland	53.2%	18,230	42.3%	14,672	4.1%	1,390	0.9%	339	0.2%	84	2.8%	967	34,292
Washington	70.6%	25,191	25%	8,928	4.4%	1,576	0.9%	334	0.5%	166	3%	1,076	35,695
Windham	71.4%	18,767	24.5%	6,440	4.7%	1,071	0.9%	230	0.5%	139	2.7%	702	26,278
Windsor	67.3%	23,376	28.7%	9,971	3.9%	1,364	1%	340	0.4%	128	2.6%	896	34,711

[31]

Notes

Donald Trump with 83 votes; Blank (written in) with 8 votes; Hillary Clinton with 5 votes; Michael Bennet with 3 votes; Ron Paul, Michelle Obama, John Edwards, Thomas James Torgensen, and Stephen Richardson with 2 votes; 110 other write-ins with 1 vote
Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
"Someone else" with 6%"; "None of the above" with 2%

Partisan clients

Poll sponsored by Milne's campaign in the 2020 Vermont lieutenant gubernatorial election

References

"Voter turnout" (PDF). sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
"Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
"Map: Turnout surged in 2020. See the numbers where you live". NBC News. Retrieved December 4, 2020.
Wasserman, David; Sophie; rews; Saenger, Leo; Cohen, Lev; Flinn, Ally; Tatarsky, Griff. "2020 Popular Vote Tracker". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved December 4, 2020.
"Vermont Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
":: Vermont Election Night Results ::". vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us. Retrieved March 4, 2020.
"Vermont Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 26, 2020.
"Bernie Sanders Enters 2020 Presidential Campaign, No Longer An Underdog". NPR. Retrieved February 20, 2019.
Martin, Jonathan; Ember, Sydney (December 27, 2018). "For Bernie Sanders, Holding Onto Support May Be Hard in a 2020 Bid". The New York Times.
Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Massachusetts". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
Ma, John Haltiwanger, Joe Perticone, Alexandra. "Joe Biden is running for president in 2020, warning that another term of Trump would tarnish America's soul forever". Business Insider. Retrieved May 1, 2019.
"Vermont Election Official Results". Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
"Vermont Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 3, 2020.
"2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
"POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
"2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
"Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
"Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
"2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
"2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
"ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
"2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
"Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
"2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
"General official results" (PDF). sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
https://sos.vermont.gov/media/heqnbco5/generalofficialresults.pdf
https://sos.vermont.gov/media/heqnbco5/generalofficialresults.pdf

External links

Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Vermont", Voting & Elections Toolkits
"Vermont: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
"League of Women Voters of Vermont". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
Vermont at Ballotpedia

This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.

[15] Donald Trump with 83 votes; Blank (written in) with 8 votes; Hillary Clinton with 5 votes; Michael Bennet with 3 votes; Ron Paul, Michelle Obama, John Edwards, Thomas James Torgensen, and Stephen Richardson with 2 votes; 110 other write-ins with 1 vote

[othercalc-30] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[key-31] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[32] Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size

[34] "Someone else" with 6%"; "None of the above" with 2%

[33] Poll sponsored by Milne's campaign in the 2020 Vermont lieutenant gubernatorial election

[1] "Voter turnout" (PDF). sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020.

[2] Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[3] "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[4] "Map: Turnout surged in 2020. See the numbers where you live". NBC News. Retrieved December 4, 2020.

[5] Wasserman, David; Sophie; rews; Saenger, Leo; Cohen, Lev; Flinn, Ally; Tatarsky, Griff. "2020 Popular Vote Tracker". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved December 4, 2020.

[6] "Vermont Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 15, 2020.

[7] ":: Vermont Election Night Results ::". vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us. Retrieved March 4, 2020.

[2020_Vermont_Republican_presidential_primary_VT-PBS-Results-8] "Vermont Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 26, 2020.

[9] "Bernie Sanders Enters 2020 Presidential Campaign, No Longer An Underdog". NPR. Retrieved February 20, 2019.

[10] Martin, Jonathan; Ember, Sydney (December 27, 2018). "For Bernie Sanders, Holding Onto Support May Be Hard in a 2020 Bid". The New York Times.

[11] Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Massachusetts". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.

[12] Ma, John Haltiwanger, Joe Perticone, Alexandra. "Joe Biden is running for president in 2020, warning that another term of Trump would tarnish America's soul forever". Business Insider. Retrieved May 1, 2019.

[2020_Vermont_Democratic_presidential_primary_VT-SOS-results-13] "Vermont Election Official Results". Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved March 11, 2020.

[14] "Vermont Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 3, 2020.

[16] "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[17] "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[18] "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[19] "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.

[20] "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.

[niskanen-21] 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020

[22] David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.

[23] "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.

[24] "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.

[25] "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.

[26] "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.

[27] "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.

[28] "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.

[29] "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.

[35] "General official results" (PDF). sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020.

[36] ttps://sos.vermont.gov/media/heqnbco5/generalofficialresults.pdf

[37] ttps://sos.vermont.gov/media/heqnbco5/generalofficialresults.pdf

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