2020 United States presidential election in South Carolina
The 2020 United States presidential election in South Carolina was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] South Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. South Carolina has nine electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]
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| Turnout | 72.1%[1]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 County Results
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| Elections in South Carolina |
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Trump carried South Carolina by a margin of 11.68%, down from his 14.27% four years earlier. Prior to this election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Trump would win, or a red state.
Trump performed somewhat better than polls anticipated, as aggregate polls averaged him only 7 points ahead of Biden. In addition, he flipped Clarendon County for the first time since 1972 and Dillon County for the first time since 1988. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in South Carolina came from white, born-again/Evangelical Christians, who supported Trump by 87%–9%. South Carolina is part of the Bible Belt, which extends across the Southern United States, and has been tethered to the Republican Party since Richard Nixon's southern strategy. As is the case in many Southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: whites supported Trump by 69%–29%, while African-Americans supported Biden by 92%–7%.[4]
Primary elections
Canceled Republican primary
On September 7, 2019, the South Carolina Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[5] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[6][7]
In response to the cancellation, former U.S. Representative Bob Inglis and another South Carolina Republican voter filed a lawsuit against the South Carolina Republican Party on grounds that it denied their right to vote. On December 11, 2019, a state court judge dismissed the lawsuit, writing in his opinion that the law "does not give plaintiffs a legal right to presidential preference primary".[8] Thus at the South Carolina State Republican Convention in May 2020, the state party will formally bind all 50 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[9]
Democratic primary
The South Carolina Democratic primary was held on February 29, 2020.
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[lower-alpha 1] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 262,336 | 48.65 | 39 |
| Bernie Sanders | 106,605 | 19.77 | 15 |
| Tom Steyer | 61,140 | 11.34 | 0 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 44,217 | 8.20 | 0 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 38,120 | 7.07 | 0 |
| Amy Klobuchar | 16,900 | 3.13 | 0 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 6,813 | 1.26 | 0 |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 1,069 | 0.20 | 0 |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 765 | 0.14 | 0 |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 658 | 0.12 | 0 |
| John Delaney (withdrawn) | 352 | 0.07 | 0 |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 288 | 0.05 | 0 |
| Total | 539,263 | 100% | 54 |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[12] | Likely R | September 10, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[13] | Likely R | September 4, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Likely R | July 14, 2020 |
| Politico[15] | Safe R | September 8, 2020 |
| RCP[16] | Lean R | August 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[17] | Safe R | July 26, 2020 |
| CNN[18] | Safe R | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[19] | Likely R | September 2, 2020 |
| CBS News[20] | Likely R | August 16, 2020 |
| 270towin[21] | Likely R | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News[22] | Safe R | July 31, 2020 |
| NPR[23] | Likely R | August 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[24] | Likely R | August 6, 2020 |
| 538[25] | Likely R | September 9, 2020 |
Polling
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 2] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win | October 9–25, 2020 | October 28, 2020 | 43.3% | 50.3% | 6.4% | Trump +7.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until October 31, 2020 | November 1, 2020 | 43.5% | 51.4% | 5.1% | Trump +7.9 |
| Average | 43.4% | 50.9% | 5.7% | Trump +7.5 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimus | Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2020 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 51% | 39% | – | – | 2%[lower-alpha 4] | 8% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 2,485 (LV) | ± 3% | 56%[lower-alpha 5] | 42% | – | – | – | – |
| Data For Progress | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 53% | 44% | 2% | 0% | 0%[lower-alpha 6] | – |
| Swayable | Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 | 426 (LV) | ± 7.4% | 50% | 49% | 1% | 0% | – | – |
| Morning Consult | Oct 22–31, 2020 | 904 (LV) | ± 3% | 51% | 45% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 4,725 (LV) | – | 54% | 44% | – | – | – | – |
| Data for Progress | Oct 22–27, 2020 | 1,196 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 44% | 1% | 0% | – | 4% |
| Starboard Communications | Oct 26, 2020 | 800 (LV) | – | 51% | 44% | – | – | – | 5% |
| East Carolina University | Oct 24–25, 2020 | 763 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 52% | 44% | – | – | 3%[lower-alpha 7] | 1% |
| Morning Consult | Oct 11–20, 2020 | 926 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 45% | – | – | – | – |
| New York Times/Siena College | Oct 9–14, 2020 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 41% | 2% | 1% | 1%[lower-alpha 8] | 6%[lower-alpha 9] |
| Data for Progress | Oct 8–11, 2020 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 43% | 1% | 1% | – | 4% |
| Morning Consult | Oct 2–11, 2020 | 903 (LV) | ± 3% | 54% | 42% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 1,833 (LV) | – | 53% | 45% | – | – | – | 2% |
| GBAO Strategies/DSCC[upper-alpha 1] | Sep 24–28, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | – | – | – | – |
| Data for Progress (D) | Sep 23–28, 2020 | 824 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 47%[lower-alpha 10] | 43% | 1% | 1% | – | 8% |
| 50%[lower-alpha 11] | 45% | – | – | – | 5% | ||||
| Quinnipiac University | Sep 23–27, 2020 | 1,123 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 47% | – | – | 1%[lower-alpha 12] | 4% |
| YouGov/CBS | Sep 22–25, 2020 | 1,080 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 42% | – | – | 2%[lower-alpha 13] | 4% |
| Morning Consult | Sep 11–20, 2020 | 764 (LV) | ± (3% – 4%) | 50%[lower-alpha 14] | 44% | – | – | – | – |
| Quinnipiac University | Sep 10–14, 2020 | 969 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 45% | – | – | 0%[lower-alpha 15] | 4% |
| Morning Consult | Sep 2–11, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%–4%) | 51% | 44% | – | – | – | – |
| Morning Consult | Aug 23 – Sep 1, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%–4%) | 52% | 42% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 1,326 (LV) | – | 53% | 45% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Morning Consult | Aug 13–22, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%–4%) | 51% | 43% | – | – | – | – |
| Morning Consult | Aug 3–12, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%–4%) | 50% | 43% | – | – | – | – |
| Quinnipiac University | Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 | 914 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 42% | – | – | 4%[lower-alpha 16] | 7% |
| Morning Consult | Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 | 741 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49%[lower-alpha 17] | 44% | – | – | 3%[lower-alpha 18] | 4% |
| Morning Consult | Jul 23 – Aug 1, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%–4%) | 48% | 45% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 1,700 (LV) | – | 53% | 44% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Morning Consult | Jul 13–22, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%–4%) | 50% | 43% | – | – | – | – |
| ALG Research/Lindsey Must Go[upper-alpha 2] | Jul 15–20, 2020 | 591 (LV) | – | 50% | 45% | – | – | 1% | 4% |
| Gravis Marketing | Jul 17, 2020 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 46% | – | – | – | – |
| brilliant corners Research & Strategies/Jaime Harrison[upper-alpha 3] | Jul 13–19, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 43% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 863 (LV) | – | 52% | 47% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | May 23–26, 2020 | 591 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 52% | 42% | – | – | 5%[lower-alpha 19] | 1% |
| AtlasIntel | Feb 25–28, 2020 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 42% | – | – | 11% | – |
| East Carolina University | Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2020 | 1,756 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 52% | 40% | – | – | – | 8% |
| Change Research | Jun 11–14, 2019 | 2,312 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 54% | 38% | 3%[lower-alpha 20] | 1%[lower-alpha 21] | – | – |
| Emerson College | Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2019 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 48% | – | – | – | – |
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Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Tom Steyer
Donald Trump vs. Andrew Yang
Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker
Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
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Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump, generic Democrat, and Howard Schultz
|
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
1,385,103 | 55.11% | +0.17% | |
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
1,091,541 | 43.43% | +2.76% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
27,916 | 1.11% | -1.23% | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
6,907 | 0.27% | -0.35% | |
| Alliance | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson |
1,862 | 0.07% | N/A | |
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | 2,513,329 | 100.00% | |||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 52% | 46% | Joe Cunningham |
| Nancy Mace | |||
| 2nd | 55% | 44% | Joe Wilson |
| 3rd | 69% | 30% | Jeff Duncan |
| 4th | 60% | 39% | William Timmons |
| 5th | 58% | 41% | Ralph Norman |
| 6th | 32% | 67% | Jim Clyburn |
| 7th | 59% | 40% | Tom Rice |
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
- The DSCC endorsed Jaime Harrison's campaign for the 2020 US Senate election in South Carolina before this poll's sampling period
- This poll's sponsor, Lindsey Must Go, is a PAC opposing Lindsey Graham
- This poll was sponsored by Harrison's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Conservatives for Clean Energy
- Additional candidates
- This figure is an estimate from the Associated Press.[11]
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Refused" and "Third party candidate" with 1%
- Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Other candidate/write-in" with 0%
- "Refused" with 2%; "Some other candidate" with 1%; Did/would not vote with 0%
- would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
- Includes "Refused"
- Standard VI response
- If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
- "Someone else" with 1%
- "Someone else/third party" with 2%
- Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Someone else" with 0%
- "Someone else" and would not vote with 2%
- Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size and topline numbers
- "Someone else" with 3%
- "Someone else" with 5%
- Generic
- Generic
- Generic Libertarian with 4%; generic Green with 2%
References
- "Turnout". Retrieved November 11, 2020.
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "South Carolina Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
- Kinnard, Meg (September 7, 2019). "Nevada, SC, Kansas GOP drop presidential nomination votes". AP NEWS.
- Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". Boston Globe. MSN. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
- Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
- Neidig, Harper (December 11, 2019). "Judge throws out lawsuit against South Carolina GOP for canceling 2020 primary". The Hill.
- "South Carolina Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
- "2020 Democratic Presidential Preference Primary Election Night Reporting: Official Results". SCVotes.org. March 2, 2020. Retrieved March 2, 2020.
- "The Latest: Sanders says he is stronger candidate than Biden". AP NEWS. March 1, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- "2020 Statewide General Election Election Night Reporting". enr-scvotes.org/. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
External links
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "South Carolina", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "South Carolina: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of South Carolina". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- South Carolina at Ballotpedia
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